OT: Tariff Economics Discussion

[MTTiger19]

Chinese tariffs on the U.S. are now 10% - lower than they were under Biden.
U.S. tariffs on China are now 30% - higher than they were under Biden.
The tariffs now favor the U.S. more.
This wouldn’t have happened by asking nicely.
Calling this a loss is pure partisanship.

 

[TheValley91]

Chinese tariffs on the U.S. are now 10% - lower than they were under Biden.
U.S. tariffs on China are now 30% - higher than they were under Biden.
The tariffs now favor the U.S. more.
This wouldn’t have happened by asking nicely.
Calling this a loss is pure partisanship.

That means the goods you pay for from China will be higher than they were under Biden.

 

[MTTiger19]

That means the goods you pay for from China will be higher than they were under Biden.

Maybe, if the market deems those goods valuable enough for folks to not find an alternative. Our company had to make similar moves when Biden was embargoing everything from Russia. A lot of the raw material comes from Russia and manufactured in China. We had to show that no parts that were being used in China were from Russia. Long story short - we need manufacturing here, if this is the first step so be it. If we have to pay a little more to have the security of manufacturing our own goods so be it.

 

[TheValley91]

Maybe, if the market deems those goods valuable enough for folks to not find an alternative. Our company had to make similar moves when Biden was embargoing everything from Russia. A lot of the raw material comes from Russia and manufactured in China. We had to show that no parts that were being used in China were from Russia. Long story short - we need manufacturing here, if this is the first step so be it. If we have to pay a little more to have the security of manufacturing our own goods so be it.

If you want to be taxed more so you have more manufacturing then so be it. Thats your choice. Don’t complain about inflation either.

We import from China the second most out of our trade partners. This is a higher tax on Americans than when Biden was in office. Not exactly something to brag about.

But China is the winner right now in this situation. Xi has more support in his own country and also has the US backing down and conceding to their demands.

 

[TigerGrowls]

Props to you knowing the word pablum but immediate demerit for your incorrect usage. I am not using ideas or theories - I’m using verifiable data and information above -
- Trade negotiation timeline extending well beyond the month being hyped by the administration
- The basic trade dynamics and motivations when we’re in a trade surplus
- The process and timeline for ordering planes by airlines and aircraft lessors

So let me make this easy for you -
- Do you really think the trade deal in its entirety was the result of a one month process? Follow-on - do you think both parties have just ignored the need for a trade agreement post-Brexit until the past few months? If so, why?
- What ultimately will change will change about our trade with the UK and how do you quantify the change?
- In your experience, what is the timeline for negotiation to deal to delivery for new wide body aircraft?

You and @fatpiggy parrot social media posts from MAGA influencers with zero credentials. I post questions based on my education and experience in finance and industry. Both of you fail to respond with any data/logic/facts every time I, or someone else with relevant education and experience, prompt you to engage on the very BASICS of topics you continuously post about.

 

[ClemsonCO14]

View embedded media

You’re quoting a guy who, by just clicking on his bio, was banned from twitter (when it had standards) for spreading Russian information about Ukrainian biolabs? You realize how ridiculous that is, right?

I’m not going to explain in detail how the market rally is not a sign that investors have faith in Trump, but rather that his terrible economic policies won’t actually be implemented and cause a recession. You clearly don’t understand basic fundamentals.

Posting for hours every night and every morning on a football form about a political party is not a sign of a healthy mental state. I don’t say this as an insult or a joke - you should consult a therapist and be honest about how you spend your time each day. I’d be willing to cover the sessions myself (no joke). I’ll DM you.

 

[fatpiggy]

You’re quoting a guy who, by just clicking on his bio, was banned from twitter (when it had standards) for spreading Russian information about Ukrainian biolabs? You realize how ridiculous that is, right?

I’m not going to explain in detail how the market rally is not a sign that investors have faith in Trump, but rather that his terrible economic policies won’t actually be implemented and cause a recession. You clearly don’t understand basic fundamentals.

Posting for hours every night and every morning on a football form about a political party is not a sign of a healthy mental state. I don’t say this as an insult or a joke - you should consult a therapist and be honest about how you spend your time each day. I’d be willing to cover the sessions myself (no joke). I’ll DM you.

The market rally is absolutely a sign of confidence in Trump. - Signed a 25 year trader that has beaten the Snp 500 23 of the last 25 years.

It was Trumps fault when it went down but not when it goes up!!! Listen to yourself.

You should consult a therapist. TDS is deadly

 

[fatpiggy]

This is one of Wall Streets top analysts. I highly recommend following him, his information is top notch.





I recommend to everyone who betted against the new administration to change course.

Just accept that you were brainwashed thinking they would crash the economy. Take your loss and move on. This will save you from more losses.

Yes, I know, you're betting right now that upcoming economic data will be bad. But everyone knows it and also knows that this is stale data now with a China trade deal, ie akin to looking in the rear view mirror.

Accept that, at this point, you are just holding on to hope or bet on a black swan.

I predict that markets will look past now stale April data published soon.

Paradoxically, consider that the U.S. hasn't had a more technocratic government perhaps ever! This is a game change. Do not let your personal feelings destroy your wealth by betting against them.

In many ways, the U.S. leadership caught up with China's making the U.S. once again a formidable force.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

This is one of Wall Streets top analysts. I highly recommend following him, his information is top notch.

View embedded media

I recommend to everyone who betted against the new administration to change course.

Just accept that you were brainwashed thinking they would crash the economy. Take your loss and move on. This will save you from more losses.

Yes, I know, you're betting right now that upcoming economic data will be bad. But everyone knows it and also knows that this is stale data now with a China trade deal, ie akin to looking in the rear view mirror.

Accept that, at this point, you are just holding on to hope or bet on a black swan.

I predict that markets will look past now stale April data published soon.

Paradoxically, consider that the U.S. hasn't had a more technocratic government perhaps ever! This is a game change. Do not let your personal feelings destroy your wealth by betting against them.

In many ways, the U.S. leadership caught up with China's making the U.S. once again a formidable force.

@dpic73

Let your bosses know today, if they’ll adapt, the future is bright.

Leave your little personal politics tantrum out of it.

Cheers!

 

[dpic73]

@dpic73

Let your bosses know today, if they’ll adapt, the future is bright.

Leave your little personal politics tantrum out of it.

Cheers!

You have no idea what we are or aren't doing.

I gave you a fact that made you defensive.

Adapt to that.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

You have no idea what we are or aren't doing.

I gave you a fact that made you defensive.

Adapt to that.

I see you’re having a tough time with Trump’s numerous successes. I feel bad for you, but you’re your own worst enemy.

Have a great Tuesday!

 

[dpic73]

I see you’re having a tough time with Trump’s numerous successes. I feel bad for you, but you’re your own worst enemy.

Have a great Tuesday!

It was great to see we got that trade deal with China that was worse than what we had under Biden. #WINNING

 

[fatpiggy]

Inflation getting crushed. All the fearmongering from the democrats just not materializing.

 

[TigerGrowls]

You’re quoting a guy who, by just clicking on his bio, was banned from twitter (when it had standards) for spreading Russian information about Ukrainian biolabs? You realize how ridiculous that is, right?

I’m not going to explain in detail how the market rally is not a sign that investors have faith in Trump, but rather that his terrible economic policies won’t actually be implemented and cause a recession. You clearly don’t understand basic fundamentals.

Posting for hours every night and every morning on a football form about a political party is not a sign of a healthy mental state. I don’t say this as an insult or a joke - you should consult a therapist and be honest about how you spend your time each day. I’d be willing to cover the sessions myself (no joke). I’ll DM you.

Quit worrying about my posting habits. It's disturbing. Additionally quit worrying about X accounts that I post. Refute the veracity all day. I am fine and enjoy bringing knowledge to the libs and haters on this board.

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[ClemsonCO14]

The market rally is absolutely a sign of confidence in Trump. - Signed a 25 year trader that has beaten the Snp 500 23 of the last 25 years.

It was Trumps fault when it went down but not when it goes up!!! Listen to yourself.

You should consult a therapist. TDS is deadly

I’m exceptionally proud of you beating the “Snp” index with 6-7 figures on the line.

Of course it was Trump’s fault when it went down - inflation had been tamed, economic growth was strong, and rate cuts were on the horizon. Simply read up on fiscal vs. monetary impacts on the economy. The tariffs were a shock to the global system - business leaders, credit and equity investors, etc. did not see a coherent strategy because there was none. We tariffed countries with zero population - it’s an absolute joke! The White House had to correct the calculations on the rising China tariffs because Trump was acting by emotion (Tweets) as opposed to logic.

You are nowhere close enough to actual decisionmakers to understand how business and institutional investment decisions are made. Suffice it to say that confidence in Trump has been almost entirely eroded, but what’s happened is Trump finally backing off to stave off massive economic harm.

Literally nothing has been accomplished that moves the needle to the positive in any way for America vs. where we were at pre-Labor Day. Look at research and industry publications on how much manufacturing was estimated to get on-shored at the height of tariffs - it was in the single digit %. The onshoring was more than offset by the economic harm (inflation, sustained hit to GDP, etc).

Equity markets are exuberant that there has been a return to the original norm, but credit markets remain wide of pre-Liberation day highs.

The tariff rollout was a debacle - they should have been more strategically and surgically implemented. It’s amazing that MAGA can’t take a step back and think, “Could this have been executed better?”

 

[fatpiggy]

I’m exceptionally proud of you beating the “Snp” index with 6-7 figures on the line.

Of course it was Trump’s fault when it went down - inflation had been tamed, economic growth was strong, and rate cuts were on the horizon. Simply read up on fiscal vs. monetary impacts on the economy. The tariffs were a shock to the global system - business leaders, credit and equity investors, etc. did not see a coherent strategy because there was none. We tariffed countries with zero population - it’s an absolute joke! The White House had to correct the calculations on the rising China tariffs because Trump was acting by emotion (Tweets) as opposed to logic.

You are nowhere close enough to actual decisionmakers to understand how business and institutional investment decisions are made. Suffice it to say that confidence in Trump has been almost entirely eroded, but what’s happened is Trump finally backing off to stave off massive economic harm.

Literally nothing has been accomplished that moves the needle to the positive in any way for America vs. where we were at pre-Labor Day. Look at research and industry publications on how much manufacturing was estimated to get on-shored at the height of tariffs - it was in the single digit %. The onshoring was more than offset by the economic harm (inflation, sustained hit to GDP, etc).

Equity markets are exuberant that there has been a return to the original norm, but credit markets remain wide of pre-Liberation day highs.

The tariff rollout was a debacle - they should have been more strategically and surgically implemented. It’s amazing that MAGA can’t take a step back and think, “Could this have been executed better?”

TDS can be terminal. Get it checked out.

You sound like a scorned lover. You probably still think Democrats were doing a good job and just barely lost the election. No, they lost in a landslide.

I should look at research and industry publications that got it all wrong? Remember how many times dpic posted articles that started with “experts say” and “50 leading economists say” and they all turned out to be dead wrong.

Saying there was no plan just means you didn’t read the information out there. Look at the white paper his economic advisor put out there. I posted a thread on it. We followed that plan almost to a T. The art of the deal book, read it and you will gain some insight into the plan.

America is infinity times better off with Trump in office than the cackling imbecile Kammy. She has the iq of a turd. Nikki Haley? lol she wouldn’t have accomplished a fraction of what Trump has.

Your take on Tesla the other day saying that OEM’s are almost caught up just shows me you are unwilling to accept reality. That is just false and clearly shows your emotions affect your decision making. You wouldn’t make a good trader. You are probably some book smart “elite” guy that has no understanding how the world works. Those are the people that brought you 9% inflation. Those are the people the voters just fired.


Continue your bashing. The market is higher than the day the tariffs were implemented. The market is about 4% away from all time highs (my portfolio crushed all time highs yesterday). Maybe the market is irrational? Maybe a black swan will come and you will get the crash you are looking for. But so far, as of this moment you are wrong as judged by the market.

Trump stopped the war between India / Pakistan dead in its tracks? Do you give him any credit there? Inflation? Stopped dead in its tracks. Immigration? Stopped dead in its tracks. DEI? Stopped dead in its tracks.

All the issues Trump campaigned on are getting fixed like dominos falling. This is truly a historic presidency.

 

[fatpiggy]

For all the people saying “nothing changed” …..

Before Trump acted, China’s average tariff on U.S. goods was over 20%. Now it’s down to 10%.

U.S. tariffs on China? Up from 20% to 30%. That's a 20-point swing in America’s favor.

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

This forum provides an outlet for my frustration towards MAGA’s ignorance. @TigerGrowls spends a significant amount of time everyday posting notes from MAGA social media, but is incapable of engaging in any sort of intelligent debate. I do think he is an outlier amongst outliers, but he could still use a fraction of the time he spends parroting ignorant social media posts to educate himself on the basics. @fatpiggy will engage but also doesn’t have the education (taught or self-taught) to engage on economic-related matters.

One good thing about the tariffs is that it exposes the objective ignorance of MAGA.

@ClemsonCO14

Dear Sir,
Although modestly successful in various businesses I know when as Clint Eastwood says
A MAN HAS TO KNOW HIS LIMITATIONS

Quite frankly in my opinion there is not a single person on here with education depth knowledge skill political connections and more to really judge the policies of the present administration.

The skill and Art of the Deal is so far over all heads including mine

Like it or not sir you in my opinion are selling yourself as a professional well informed in the know guy when in reality you are just throwing anything and everything against the wall in hopes something will stick.

Again to be clear I do not clear to be an expert.
I also rarely copy and post articles from all of these outlaw media outlets who print outrageous articles that are not vetted and checked and double checked

I despise people who mislead people by lying

Anything I say I stand by however I have to keep an open mind saying what if my information is wrong

So I will keep reading your posts and find myself not convinced you are credible and reliable

I will give you opportunities to show me where I am in error

You can start by NOT ALWAYS USING TDS and sticking to policy and what benefits the American people

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

Quit worrying about my posting habits. It's disturbing. Additionally quit worrying about X accounts that I post. Refute the veracity all day. I am fine and enjoy bringing knowledge to the libs and haters on this board.

@TigerGrowls

Keep posting Sir

Many times I really ignore all the cut and paste stuff because its all over the place

This may sound crazy but I trust my GUT FEELING

America is now on the right track

I am 73 and not in the worse of health but struggling and will probably miss the Golden Age of America as it unfolds over the next decade and more

Good Luck

 

[TigerGrowls]

@TigerGrowls

Keep posting Sir

Many times I really ignore all the cut and paste stuff because its all over the place

This may sound crazy but I trust my GUT FEELING

America is now on the right track

I am 73 and not in the worse of health but struggling and will probably miss the Golden Age of America as it unfolds over the next decade and more

Good Luck

Thanks brother...you keep on trucking and bringing the truth!!!

 

[TheValley91]

For all the people saying “nothing changed” …..

Before Trump acted, China’s average tariff on U.S. goods was over 20%. Now it’s down to 10%.

U.S. tariffs on China? Up from 20% to 30%. That's a 20-point swing in America’s favor.

View embedded media

So the American consumer pays 10% more than before.

 

[UrHuckleberry]

So the American consumer pays 10% more than before.

Sure but rich people also make more money selling?

 

[fatpiggy]

So the American consumer pays 10% more than before.

Incorrect.

See inflation. Inflation has been crushed.

Say what you want, tariffs went up and inflation went down. Two factual statements at the time of this post.

I agree that MAY not hold, but there is a good chance it does.

It just goes to show how much bloat the democrats were running on. And it goes to show the “experts” who said it couldn’t be done 1) ignored Trumps first term and 2) they were dead wrong.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

TDS can be terminal. Get it checked out.

You sound like a scorned lover. You probably still think Democrats were doing a good job and just barely lost the election. No, they lost in a landslide.

I should look at research and industry publications that got it all wrong? Remember how many times dpic posted articles that started with “experts say” and “50 leading economists say” and they all turned out to be dead wrong.

Saying there was no plan just means you didn’t read the information out there. Look at the white paper his economic advisor put out there. I posted a thread on it. We followed that plan almost to a T. The art of the deal book, read it and you will gain some insight into the plan.

America is infinity times better off with Trump in office than the cackling imbecile Kammy. She has the iq of a turd. Nikki Haley? lol she wouldn’t have accomplished a fraction of what Trump has.

Your take on Tesla the other day saying that OEM’s are almost caught up just shows me you are unwilling to accept reality. That is just false and clearly shows your emotions affect your decision making. You wouldn’t make a good trader. You are probably some book smart “elite” guy that has no understanding how the world works. Those are the people that brought you 9% inflation. Those are the people the voters just fired.


Continue your bashing. The market is higher than the day the tariffs were implemented. The market is about 4% away from all time highs (my portfolio crushed all time highs yesterday). Maybe the market is irrational? Maybe a black swan will come and you will get the crash you are looking for. But so far, as of this moment you are wrong as judged by the market.

Trump stopped the war between India / Pakistan dead in its tracks? Do you give him any credit there? Inflation? Stopped dead in its tracks. Immigration? Stopped dead in its tracks. DEI? Stopped dead in its tracks.

All the issues Trump campaigned on are getting fixed like dominos falling. This is truly a historic presidency.

These libs are bent to pieces with zero response.

Their inability to admit the truth didn’t start this week, and it surely won’t end anytime soon.

They know they are/have been completely wrong, and they get to live through it. Let them.

 

[DrTigerGoob]

That means the goods you pay for from China will be higher than they were under Biden.

Yup...no brainer.

 

[fatpiggy]

Yup...no brainer.

Not necessarily.

If China wants to keep market share they will have to eat the tariff. Otherwise, they will lose market share. I bet they reduce prices and eat the tariff.

If they don’t, India will start taking their market share.

 

[TheValley91]

Incorrect.

See inflation. Inflation has been crushed.

Say what you want, tariffs went up and inflation went down. Two factual statements at the time of this post.

I agree that MAY not hold, but there is a good chance it does.

It just goes to show how much bloat the democrats were running on. And it goes to show the “experts” who said it couldn’t be done 1) ignored Trumps first term and 2) they were dead wrong.

Inflation was up from March to April.

 

[fatpiggy]

Inflation was up from March to April.

You should look at truflation.com

Look at January 20th when Biden left office and look at it now.

Crushed!

 

[TheValley91]

You should look at truflation.com

Look at January 20th when Biden left office and look at it now.

Crushed!

Again, inflation went up from March to April.

 

[fatpiggy]

Again, inflation went up from March to April.

OK.

It also has been crushed since Trump took office and the CPI report came in lower than expected. Lower thant the "experts" predicted.

I'll help you understand what's going on.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Again, inflation went up from March to April.

So desperate.

 

[TheValley91]

So desperate.

Hey look one of my loyal followers. Facts are tough for you. I understand.

 

[TheValley91]

OK.

It also has been crushed since Trump took office and the CPI report came in lower than expected. Lower thant the "experts" predicted.

I'll help you understand what's going on.

View embedded media

So its gone up since the beginning of March. Cool.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Hey look one of my loyal followers. Facts are tough for you. I understand.

I bet you grind your teeth nightly.

You’re gonna be okay. Trump is doing it all for you, too.

 

[TheValley91]

I bet you grind your teeth nightly.

You’re gonna be okay. Trump is doing it all for you, too.

Oh gross. To think people like you look at a president this way.

Your wife or husband might be jealous.

 

[CUT93]

So its gone up since the beginning of March. Cool.

Even cooler, it's gone down since Trump took office. Trump has lowered inflation. That is a fact!

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Oh gross. To think people like you look at a president this way.

Your wife or husband might be jealous.

Your daily angst is entertainment gold.

Angry fellow, indeed.

 

[TheValley91]

Your daily angst is entertainment gold.

Angry fellow, indeed.

Making lots of money and spending time with friends/family. Also caring for others that could use some help. I'm a lucky blessed man.

Excited for the next time you follow me. Enjoy.

 

[TheValley91]

Even cooler, it's gone down since Trump took office. Trump has lowered inflation. That is a fact!

I said nothing wrong.