Hope everyone had a great holiday! I thought I’d try to demonstrate some healthy maturity this year and actually wait some time before posting any thoughts after a big game. I think some have seen my posts immediately after games over the years and found their content a bit (understandably ha) harsh in their criticisms. This year, though, I thought I’d take some time to let the emotions subside, and then, instead of taking a game-specific approach, I’d focus more on the season as a whole.
I also thought it made sense to focus on my personal expectations going into this season and reconciling those with the ultimate season realities to determine where I was right / wrong in some sort of attempt to gauge where we are trending as a program. That ultimately is all that matters. For anyone who tracks any sort of a business or a stock or really any sort of investment, the value is what the value is, but the delta and expected / forecasted changes are all that matters.
We are a 10 win, 4 loss team. That’s our current value on the ticker, anyone can look up that stock rice, and there’s really nothing to learn from that. I’m gonna try and look back at how we performed this season relative to expectations and use that as a tool to forecast 2025. And, contrary to what some may think, I’m actually exceedingly optimistic about where things stand. I think with some savvy offseason moves, we could be setup for the type of run that I never expected us to be in a position to make again! So let’s dive into various things I expected prior to the season, how those predictions fared, and what that means for 2025.
1. Proclamation: Cade is not it and is borderline a scrub – Damn was I wrong here in the best way. I don’t know if folks have adequately appreciated Cade’s performance against Texas. I know the deflating nature of the defense’s incompetence (we’ll get to them later) made it hard to appreciate much in that game, but quite simply this dude was him in that game. I’ve gone back and watched the game again, and man, for a college QB, this kid played about as well, on the road, given the defense’s incompetency, as a QB possibly can.
What Cade did in that game far surpassed anything I thought he had in him. He brought it from the very first series and to the very last series, even when the game seemed like it was avalanching on us. This wasn’t a case of him starting slow and scoring garbage-time TDs or starting fast and then fizzling out. He was on all game. His ball placement and accuracy was shocking in the best way. That combined with his command of and confidence in his progressions was almost startling. I wouldn’t say it was to the DW4 or TL16 levels, but I found myself having such a sense of calm when he had the ball, something I haven’t felt in a while.
Before the season I’d traded messages with Larry about Cade’s potential to be final year at Oregon Bo Nix. I never really thought he had that in him but proposed that as a what-if ceiling. I’m now confident that he has final year at Oregon Bo Nix in him. He will have to cutdown on some of the “o shit” plays that he still has a tiny piece in him, but he has that type of potential. I looked up Nix’s final season, and he was 45/3 for 4500 yards. Cade this year was 36/6 for 3600. I don’t think that type of leap is out of the question given what he showed on the road in the playoffs and what we have coming back as far as weapons.
With the overall regression across the board we’ve seen in QB play at the college level, Cade genuinely has the potential to be a top 5 QB in the country next year. Such a credit to Dabo and Cade for continuing to work and develop and such a miss by me. This kid has really weathered the storm and road the rollercoaster to become the type of leader folks thought he could be coming into Clemson.
2. Proclamation: Matt Luke will be the best hire since Venables – Absolutely correct. What an immediate impact he made, and damn did the injuries not make it easy on him. Similar to the above comments about it being hard to appreciate certain things, I don’t think most of us have appreciated how well the OL played in that game. That was a top 5 (at worst) front seven in the country, and we largely played them to a draw in the trenches without even having a real RB to threaten them.
I know it’s been mentioned before, but if we can get some injury luck for once, with another offseason, Luke can have this be Dabo’s best offensive line ever next year. I know that’s a relatively low bar, but I’m incredibly confident that is this OL’s ceiling. They’re damn good already in pass pro. They need some more development in the running game and in overall physicality, but these guys played so damn well and are setup to be a real strength next year. When is the last time we could say that?
3. Proclamation: Our overall caliber of roster has fallen off precipitously – Part correct part incorrect. On the part incorrect side of things, I did not think our skill players, especially on the perimeter, were what they became. On the off-chance 0 returns, it’s scary what these guys could become: easily the best trio since the Tee, Ross, and Renfrow days. They’re not on that level and don’t have that ceiling (IMO), but they are leaps and bounds beyond anything we have seen since 2018. Additionally on the incorrect part, I don’t think I appreciated the potential that had been amassed on the OL. I don’t love the numbers and think there’s a lot of genuine concern after next year, but there was real size and talent there to work with. Now to the part that was correct…
This program doesn’t know what elite defensive talent looks like anymore. I mentioned during the offseason when Carter was ranked as highly as he was in the best players ranking (think he was maybe ranked number one) that that was a devastating sign for the program. It wasn’t just that Carter wouldn’t have made the top 10 list of probably any of our National Championship teams, it was more that people within the program thought he had that type of stature. It isn’t a criticism of TI’s ranking that put him that high. Larry and Paul can only go off what people are telling them. The problem is that anyone within the program could watch his tape and come to that conclusion.
There’s no need to unnecessarily drag someone, but his level of play is staggeringly bad. If you told me the SMU and Texas games were his first ever games at LB, I’d believe you. I’ve never seen a LB react less. He basically just stands in place, waits to catch the block, and then, since he’s so undersized for his position, gets taken for a ride. Whatever combination of not having natural instincts and not being coached properly, they result in that on-field performance that you simply can’t win with.
The biggest issue with our struggles in recruiting and unwillingness to use the transfer portal is we lack best is the standard, competitive depth at every position. I think it’s important that people recognize what that competitive depth phase means when we say best is the standard. Surely people recognize that doesn’t mean we expect to have the best 22 at every starting position on the field. What it does mean, though, is that we have personnel at all 22 positions and their backups that can compete with the best in the country. It doesn’t mean we have the best at every position, but it means they can compete with the best.
Again, without identifying too many names, we have a number of players and positions that simply cannot compete with the best. It’s not just about bringing in the Sammy Browns and the TJ Moores. It’s about bringing in Lyn-J Dixons and K’Von Wallaces. ETN can be who he was, because there’s Dixon behind him. Guys like K’Von and Muse allow an Isaiah Simmons to be turned into the free-wheeling weapon he became. At basically all levels of our defense and beyond the starting OL, we have to develop more competitive depth. We can dispute the best way to achieve that given the current recruiting, transfer, and NIL dynamics, but the simple truth of the matter is this roster pales in comparison to anything Dabo has won a championship. However, it’s not the only critical aspect of the program that has regressed.
4. Proclamation: This is Dabo’s worst coaching staff ever – Correct, and I don’t really think it can be disputed. I'm not even gonna waste my time on WG. As everyone knew from the very beginning, that was a hire of laughable and almost insulting absurdity. This isn't someone's dad's landscaping business where the son gets to learn on the job. This is big boy football where an all-time big game performance by a gritty QB was beyond squandered by a laughable defensive performance. Because we all know the defensive staff will be decimated, I'll focus these thoughts on offense.
The more I watch football, the more I think that playcalling is orders of magnitude more art than science. The truth of the matter is that all of these guys can draw up sophisticated, intricate plays on a chalkboard. Some systems have slightly different route trees and protections than others, but it’s not like one coach is teaching physics and the other is teaching chemistry.
Bringing it back to the finance analogy, all coordinators know how to look at a balance sheet and analyze the PE ratios and debt service of a business, but I’m reminded of my favorite scene from one of my favorite movies ever (Margin Call) where the head honcho is asking a room full of people why he makes he big bucks. He waxes on so perfectly about how it’s got nothing to do with brains or sophisticated analysis or anything you could measure. He is in that chair to listen to the music and guess what is gonna be played next. That’s it, and that’s all playcalling is.
I think that Riley’s gameplan was actually damn good against Texas for the most part. I think he has made a really strong impact on Cade and on Cade’s comfort in the system. I also think that on gameday, when it matters most, his playcalling can be criminally bad. Two plays come to mind that I think are malpractice when you have a QB playing as well as Cade was: The first was the wildcat play on 2nd and 3 from Texas’ 25 down 21-7. At this point in the game, the offense and more specifically, Cade, is dealing. He is our best f’n player on the field, and we decide to take the ball out of his hands to run a damn wildcat play that we haven’t run once this year.
And the absurdity of it is that you took a true dual-threat weapon in Cade and decided to replace him with a one-threat weapon. Does anyone think the collective threat of Randall running or the RB running stresses the defense more than the collective threat of Cade running, Cade handing it off, or Cade throwing the ball? That is just coaching malpractice. It doesn’t matter how it looked on the chalkboard. You have to have a sense for the game (at that point very much still in-reach) and for the collective strain you’re presenting to a defense and realize that a red-hot dual threat QB is orders of magnitude more dangerous than a damn WR playing wildcat. The next play was the tipped interception, and that interception is 100000% on Riley and the absurdity of the preceding Wildcat call.
The other play I don’t remember the exact situation, but it’s seared into my head is that nonsense trick play where we snap the ball, the lineman don’t move, and then it’s some throwback screen. It worked once, and now it’s almost like every Clemson OC has to agree to call it once a year as part of their job description. It is horrible, and, once again, takes the decision-making out of a red-hot QB’s hands. I remember us being in plus territory when we called that, and that simply cannot be done.
I don’t think Riley is at-risk at all, and I’m excited to see what he can do with another year of Cade. I do think, though, that he just doesn’t have that innate feel for the game and for the art of playcalling. I’d love to add this to the what I was wrong about list next year, but I don’t get the sense he has a feel for the game. People talk about what made Venables special, and it wasn’t that he can draw more innate blitzes than others. It’s that he had a feel for tendencies and critical situations. I hope Riley takes a hard look at some of the critical in-game decision calls he made and tries to get a better feel for what he could improve upon.
Overall, I think this program is in a better position than I expected and than I believed halfway through the season. I don’t think I appreciated how much the NIL and the transfer landscape would level (and in a lot of ways deteriorate) the quality of play. The simple truth of the world is I’m truly convinced that no team ever will come close to being able to play with the 2019 LSU or 2018 Clemson teams. I think both of those teams will basically forever be enshrined as a standard beyond which future teams will never be able to get close given how spread the talent has become so while I stand by it that no one on this team would really be an impact player on that 2018 Clemson team, I also don’t think that’s the required measuring stick anymore.
I think if we make major changes to the defensive staff, add some specific transfers, and keep all of our existing talent, this team should be a genuine championship contender next year. One thing I think the new defensive coordinator needs to focus on is an atmosphere of intensity and physicality. I heard Josh Pate talking about the Georgia / Notre Dame game and how both sides are confident that they will be the most physical, that either side would be convicted in a blood oath that they will be more physical, and it got me thinking about our team. I think if you offered some sort of life or death bet to our entire coaching staff on which of their position groups will be more physical than their opponents next year, the only one who’d make that bet is Luke, and that’s a problem. Our defense just doesn’t play with the type of intense physicality you need to win at this level.
If we can bring in an elite defensive coordinator who can assemble a staff that can develop an intensity on that side of the football, the offense will be in a position to win any game we play next year. I still have some concerns beyond next year, but I think next year could be a really special year. Apologies for the long-winded post, but it’s that week between Xmas and New Years where everything blends together so o well ha!
TL/DR: I need an editor, but we should be salty next year!
I also thought it made sense to focus on my personal expectations going into this season and reconciling those with the ultimate season realities to determine where I was right / wrong in some sort of attempt to gauge where we are trending as a program. That ultimately is all that matters. For anyone who tracks any sort of a business or a stock or really any sort of investment, the value is what the value is, but the delta and expected / forecasted changes are all that matters.
We are a 10 win, 4 loss team. That’s our current value on the ticker, anyone can look up that stock rice, and there’s really nothing to learn from that. I’m gonna try and look back at how we performed this season relative to expectations and use that as a tool to forecast 2025. And, contrary to what some may think, I’m actually exceedingly optimistic about where things stand. I think with some savvy offseason moves, we could be setup for the type of run that I never expected us to be in a position to make again! So let’s dive into various things I expected prior to the season, how those predictions fared, and what that means for 2025.
1. Proclamation: Cade is not it and is borderline a scrub – Damn was I wrong here in the best way. I don’t know if folks have adequately appreciated Cade’s performance against Texas. I know the deflating nature of the defense’s incompetence (we’ll get to them later) made it hard to appreciate much in that game, but quite simply this dude was him in that game. I’ve gone back and watched the game again, and man, for a college QB, this kid played about as well, on the road, given the defense’s incompetency, as a QB possibly can.
What Cade did in that game far surpassed anything I thought he had in him. He brought it from the very first series and to the very last series, even when the game seemed like it was avalanching on us. This wasn’t a case of him starting slow and scoring garbage-time TDs or starting fast and then fizzling out. He was on all game. His ball placement and accuracy was shocking in the best way. That combined with his command of and confidence in his progressions was almost startling. I wouldn’t say it was to the DW4 or TL16 levels, but I found myself having such a sense of calm when he had the ball, something I haven’t felt in a while.
Before the season I’d traded messages with Larry about Cade’s potential to be final year at Oregon Bo Nix. I never really thought he had that in him but proposed that as a what-if ceiling. I’m now confident that he has final year at Oregon Bo Nix in him. He will have to cutdown on some of the “o shit” plays that he still has a tiny piece in him, but he has that type of potential. I looked up Nix’s final season, and he was 45/3 for 4500 yards. Cade this year was 36/6 for 3600. I don’t think that type of leap is out of the question given what he showed on the road in the playoffs and what we have coming back as far as weapons.
With the overall regression across the board we’ve seen in QB play at the college level, Cade genuinely has the potential to be a top 5 QB in the country next year. Such a credit to Dabo and Cade for continuing to work and develop and such a miss by me. This kid has really weathered the storm and road the rollercoaster to become the type of leader folks thought he could be coming into Clemson.
2. Proclamation: Matt Luke will be the best hire since Venables – Absolutely correct. What an immediate impact he made, and damn did the injuries not make it easy on him. Similar to the above comments about it being hard to appreciate certain things, I don’t think most of us have appreciated how well the OL played in that game. That was a top 5 (at worst) front seven in the country, and we largely played them to a draw in the trenches without even having a real RB to threaten them.
I know it’s been mentioned before, but if we can get some injury luck for once, with another offseason, Luke can have this be Dabo’s best offensive line ever next year. I know that’s a relatively low bar, but I’m incredibly confident that is this OL’s ceiling. They’re damn good already in pass pro. They need some more development in the running game and in overall physicality, but these guys played so damn well and are setup to be a real strength next year. When is the last time we could say that?
3. Proclamation: Our overall caliber of roster has fallen off precipitously – Part correct part incorrect. On the part incorrect side of things, I did not think our skill players, especially on the perimeter, were what they became. On the off-chance 0 returns, it’s scary what these guys could become: easily the best trio since the Tee, Ross, and Renfrow days. They’re not on that level and don’t have that ceiling (IMO), but they are leaps and bounds beyond anything we have seen since 2018. Additionally on the incorrect part, I don’t think I appreciated the potential that had been amassed on the OL. I don’t love the numbers and think there’s a lot of genuine concern after next year, but there was real size and talent there to work with. Now to the part that was correct…
This program doesn’t know what elite defensive talent looks like anymore. I mentioned during the offseason when Carter was ranked as highly as he was in the best players ranking (think he was maybe ranked number one) that that was a devastating sign for the program. It wasn’t just that Carter wouldn’t have made the top 10 list of probably any of our National Championship teams, it was more that people within the program thought he had that type of stature. It isn’t a criticism of TI’s ranking that put him that high. Larry and Paul can only go off what people are telling them. The problem is that anyone within the program could watch his tape and come to that conclusion.
There’s no need to unnecessarily drag someone, but his level of play is staggeringly bad. If you told me the SMU and Texas games were his first ever games at LB, I’d believe you. I’ve never seen a LB react less. He basically just stands in place, waits to catch the block, and then, since he’s so undersized for his position, gets taken for a ride. Whatever combination of not having natural instincts and not being coached properly, they result in that on-field performance that you simply can’t win with.
The biggest issue with our struggles in recruiting and unwillingness to use the transfer portal is we lack best is the standard, competitive depth at every position. I think it’s important that people recognize what that competitive depth phase means when we say best is the standard. Surely people recognize that doesn’t mean we expect to have the best 22 at every starting position on the field. What it does mean, though, is that we have personnel at all 22 positions and their backups that can compete with the best in the country. It doesn’t mean we have the best at every position, but it means they can compete with the best.
Again, without identifying too many names, we have a number of players and positions that simply cannot compete with the best. It’s not just about bringing in the Sammy Browns and the TJ Moores. It’s about bringing in Lyn-J Dixons and K’Von Wallaces. ETN can be who he was, because there’s Dixon behind him. Guys like K’Von and Muse allow an Isaiah Simmons to be turned into the free-wheeling weapon he became. At basically all levels of our defense and beyond the starting OL, we have to develop more competitive depth. We can dispute the best way to achieve that given the current recruiting, transfer, and NIL dynamics, but the simple truth of the matter is this roster pales in comparison to anything Dabo has won a championship. However, it’s not the only critical aspect of the program that has regressed.
4. Proclamation: This is Dabo’s worst coaching staff ever – Correct, and I don’t really think it can be disputed. I'm not even gonna waste my time on WG. As everyone knew from the very beginning, that was a hire of laughable and almost insulting absurdity. This isn't someone's dad's landscaping business where the son gets to learn on the job. This is big boy football where an all-time big game performance by a gritty QB was beyond squandered by a laughable defensive performance. Because we all know the defensive staff will be decimated, I'll focus these thoughts on offense.
The more I watch football, the more I think that playcalling is orders of magnitude more art than science. The truth of the matter is that all of these guys can draw up sophisticated, intricate plays on a chalkboard. Some systems have slightly different route trees and protections than others, but it’s not like one coach is teaching physics and the other is teaching chemistry.
Bringing it back to the finance analogy, all coordinators know how to look at a balance sheet and analyze the PE ratios and debt service of a business, but I’m reminded of my favorite scene from one of my favorite movies ever (Margin Call) where the head honcho is asking a room full of people why he makes he big bucks. He waxes on so perfectly about how it’s got nothing to do with brains or sophisticated analysis or anything you could measure. He is in that chair to listen to the music and guess what is gonna be played next. That’s it, and that’s all playcalling is.
I think that Riley’s gameplan was actually damn good against Texas for the most part. I think he has made a really strong impact on Cade and on Cade’s comfort in the system. I also think that on gameday, when it matters most, his playcalling can be criminally bad. Two plays come to mind that I think are malpractice when you have a QB playing as well as Cade was: The first was the wildcat play on 2nd and 3 from Texas’ 25 down 21-7. At this point in the game, the offense and more specifically, Cade, is dealing. He is our best f’n player on the field, and we decide to take the ball out of his hands to run a damn wildcat play that we haven’t run once this year.
And the absurdity of it is that you took a true dual-threat weapon in Cade and decided to replace him with a one-threat weapon. Does anyone think the collective threat of Randall running or the RB running stresses the defense more than the collective threat of Cade running, Cade handing it off, or Cade throwing the ball? That is just coaching malpractice. It doesn’t matter how it looked on the chalkboard. You have to have a sense for the game (at that point very much still in-reach) and for the collective strain you’re presenting to a defense and realize that a red-hot dual threat QB is orders of magnitude more dangerous than a damn WR playing wildcat. The next play was the tipped interception, and that interception is 100000% on Riley and the absurdity of the preceding Wildcat call.
The other play I don’t remember the exact situation, but it’s seared into my head is that nonsense trick play where we snap the ball, the lineman don’t move, and then it’s some throwback screen. It worked once, and now it’s almost like every Clemson OC has to agree to call it once a year as part of their job description. It is horrible, and, once again, takes the decision-making out of a red-hot QB’s hands. I remember us being in plus territory when we called that, and that simply cannot be done.
I don’t think Riley is at-risk at all, and I’m excited to see what he can do with another year of Cade. I do think, though, that he just doesn’t have that innate feel for the game and for the art of playcalling. I’d love to add this to the what I was wrong about list next year, but I don’t get the sense he has a feel for the game. People talk about what made Venables special, and it wasn’t that he can draw more innate blitzes than others. It’s that he had a feel for tendencies and critical situations. I hope Riley takes a hard look at some of the critical in-game decision calls he made and tries to get a better feel for what he could improve upon.
Overall, I think this program is in a better position than I expected and than I believed halfway through the season. I don’t think I appreciated how much the NIL and the transfer landscape would level (and in a lot of ways deteriorate) the quality of play. The simple truth of the world is I’m truly convinced that no team ever will come close to being able to play with the 2019 LSU or 2018 Clemson teams. I think both of those teams will basically forever be enshrined as a standard beyond which future teams will never be able to get close given how spread the talent has become so while I stand by it that no one on this team would really be an impact player on that 2018 Clemson team, I also don’t think that’s the required measuring stick anymore.
I think if we make major changes to the defensive staff, add some specific transfers, and keep all of our existing talent, this team should be a genuine championship contender next year. One thing I think the new defensive coordinator needs to focus on is an atmosphere of intensity and physicality. I heard Josh Pate talking about the Georgia / Notre Dame game and how both sides are confident that they will be the most physical, that either side would be convicted in a blood oath that they will be more physical, and it got me thinking about our team. I think if you offered some sort of life or death bet to our entire coaching staff on which of their position groups will be more physical than their opponents next year, the only one who’d make that bet is Luke, and that’s a problem. Our defense just doesn’t play with the type of intense physicality you need to win at this level.
If we can bring in an elite defensive coordinator who can assemble a staff that can develop an intensity on that side of the football, the offense will be in a position to win any game we play next year. I still have some concerns beyond next year, but I think next year could be a really special year. Apologies for the long-winded post, but it’s that week between Xmas and New Years where everything blends together so o well ha!
TL/DR: I need an editor, but we should be salty next year!
