cfbstats.com was updated this morning and I just couldn't wait to see what the 'supercomputer' said the stats and score would be in the Natty.
Gotta say I was quite pleasantly surprised with the projection after updated stats from bowl games and the first round of the CFP. But first, here's the results from the first round compared to what the projection predicted.
CLEMSON vs NOTRE DAME results
Notice that CLEMSON over-achieved both offensively and defensively (or ND under-achieved). ND's passing attack had trouble - our DBs played very very well. On the other side, our passing game played above their average. Both team's rushing numbers were close to projection... If DEX was in the game, would ND's rushing have been lower and their passing higher? Maybe.
ALABAMA vs OKLAHOMA results
In this game, Alabama under-performed and OK over-performed. How would this game have turned out if Alabama didn't jump out to that big lead? If the video review would have rightfully overturned the bobbled Bama TD? Who knows, who cares. Alabama starts fast unless they are playing the Citadel.
Now for our projection. As I've done the Bama/CU projection thru the season, it has changed slightly but always has had Alabama ahead - sometimes by 4 points, sometimes by less than a point. But there was a stark change in it this week. Keep in mind that teams will almost always over or under-perform what 'should' happen . But if trends hold up, this is what we'll see in Cali...
While it projects CLEMSON with a 2-point win, the stat-line is essentially even in terms of 1st downs and total yardage. Both defenses are 'better' statistically than the offenses they will face (which are also very good). CLEMSON needs to rely on some big plays in this one. So does Alabama. It will be difficult to sustain a 80-yard drive against either defense. We have to watch out for a quick Alabama start, which they are prone to do and we are prone to start slow.
What I think we need to see happen to win:
IF our defensive backs play their best game, we can win
IF we can limit Alabama's running attack we can win
IF Trevor is on the mark with his timing/accuracy and we don't have drops from receivers, we can win
IF we don't have special team's snafus or turnovers (including horribly losing field-position battles), we can win
One thing is certain, we're about to see the first-ever 15-0 College football team. This should be an epic game if both teams play well. Let's get it done!
Gotta say I was quite pleasantly surprised with the projection after updated stats from bowl games and the first round of the CFP. But first, here's the results from the first round compared to what the projection predicted.
CLEMSON vs NOTRE DAME results
Notice that CLEMSON over-achieved both offensively and defensively (or ND under-achieved). ND's passing attack had trouble - our DBs played very very well. On the other side, our passing game played above their average. Both team's rushing numbers were close to projection... If DEX was in the game, would ND's rushing have been lower and their passing higher? Maybe.
ALABAMA vs OKLAHOMA results
In this game, Alabama under-performed and OK over-performed. How would this game have turned out if Alabama didn't jump out to that big lead? If the video review would have rightfully overturned the bobbled Bama TD? Who knows, who cares. Alabama starts fast unless they are playing the Citadel.
Now for our projection. As I've done the Bama/CU projection thru the season, it has changed slightly but always has had Alabama ahead - sometimes by 4 points, sometimes by less than a point. But there was a stark change in it this week. Keep in mind that teams will almost always over or under-perform what 'should' happen . But if trends hold up, this is what we'll see in Cali...
While it projects CLEMSON with a 2-point win, the stat-line is essentially even in terms of 1st downs and total yardage. Both defenses are 'better' statistically than the offenses they will face (which are also very good). CLEMSON needs to rely on some big plays in this one. So does Alabama. It will be difficult to sustain a 80-yard drive against either defense. We have to watch out for a quick Alabama start, which they are prone to do and we are prone to start slow.
What I think we need to see happen to win:
IF our defensive backs play their best game, we can win
IF we can limit Alabama's running attack we can win
IF Trevor is on the mark with his timing/accuracy and we don't have drops from receivers, we can win
IF we don't have special team's snafus or turnovers (including horribly losing field-position battles), we can win
One thing is certain, we're about to see the first-ever 15-0 College football team. This should be an epic game if both teams play well. Let's get it done!
