Redefining Recession?

[Willence]

HAHAHAHA

The wiki page for the word Recession has been edited over 40 times this week.

Recession: Revision history - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Now who is the group that lies and distorts again?

 

[Solid Orange Blood]

HAHAHAHA

The wiki page for the word Recession has been edited over 40 times this week.

Recession: Revision history - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Now who is the group that lies and distorts again?

Google textbook definition of recession and check out the results.

 

[Jjh7]

The Fed is a clueless entity? oh come on man.....you lost me there

Ok then just from 2007 alone take a look quotes from geniuses like bernanke yellen and dollar bill dudley. In their worldview there wasnt a single economic concern. Then kablooey. Literally weeks before it all blew up this was voiced, funding markets were roiling, ed curve had inverted…nothing to worry about they said.

ok since that time lets take a little look at their track record. Familiar with the dot plot? Take a look at their dot plots over the last 15 years and see just how miserably far they missed by every single time theyve tried to lift off. If thats not enough how bout bernanke into yellen have been asleep at the wheel into each successive slowdown ie 2018 2014 2011, 2020 would have seen one covid or no covid. Take a look at their balance sheet rolloff projections over time and see how accurate theyve been on those. You follow their speeches, public comments, and minutes? Probably not its mostly boring i just dont have a choice but believe me theres quite a few dandies in there showing 0 grasp of where the economy was and was going. If you are remotely familiar with the board members and chairs and know how miserably theyve failed to meet their projections at a near perfect batting %, how on gods green earth can you possibly think they have even a minor grasp on what theyre doing? I mean its legitimately not possible to be familiar with their track record and say something like “you lost me at the fed being clueless”. If you arent familiar with the details of their track record and words youd be better served saving the comment until you know what youre talking about. Hopefully its the latter, that can be fixed but theres no hope for stupid

 

[jakefest]

HAHAHAHA

The wiki page for the word Recession has been edited over 40 times this week.

Recession: Revision history - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Now who is the group that lies and distorts again?

Indicates we are already in a recession

 

[CoffeeIsForClosers]

Ok then just from 2007 alone take a look quotes from geniuses like bernanke yellen and dollar bill dudley. In their worldview there wasnt a single economic concern. Then kablooey. Literally weeks before it all blew up this was voiced, funding markets were roiling, ed curve had inverted…nothing to worry about they said.

ok since that time lets take a little look at their track record. Familiar with the dot plot? Take a look at their dot plots over the last 15 years and see just how miserably far they missed by every single time theyve tried to lift off. If thats not enough how bout bernanke into yellen have been asleep at the wheel into each successive slowdown ie 2018 2014 2011, 2020 would have seen one covid or no covid. Take a look at their balance sheet rolloff projections over time and see how accurate theyve been on those. You follow their speeches, public comments, and minutes? Probably not its mostly boring i just dont have a choice but believe me theres quite a few dandies in there showing 0 grasp of where the economy was and was going. If you are remotely familiar with the board members and chairs and know how miserably theyve failed to meet their projections at a near perfect batting %, how on gods green earth can you possibly think they have even a minor grasp on what theyre doing? I mean its legitimately not possible to be familiar with their track record and say something like “you lost me at the fed being clueless”. If you arent familiar with the details of their track record and words youd be better served saving the comment until you know what youre talking about. Hopefully its the latter, that can be fixed but theres no hope for stupid

Sorry. I try not to be overly critical of people in positions way more important than mine with way more information to make decisions than I have, especially when these people are smarter than me. Same reason you'll never see me on here questioning most coaching or player decisions on a Monday morning after a game.

That being said, I do think in hindsight the fed might wish they had spent more of the years 1996 to current at higher interest rates. For the first time in our country's history wealth grew at a faster rate than GDP. Only one way one can acquire more wealth.....that is to get it from someone else. But again, hindsight is 20/20

 

[Solid Orange Blood]

Dude comin with receipts:

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

What should be concerning to a portion of the American population is that some polls show Democrats favored to beat Republicans in an election

 

[WapPride]

don't run candidates like herschel walker and that prob wouldn't happen

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

don't run candidates like herschel walker and that prob wouldn't happen

I should have said concerning to ME as Democrats love that poll

I think HW will beat the Dem in GA

but what do I know let’s vote and count the votes

 

[dpic73]

I should have said concerning to ME as Democrats love that poll

I think HW will beat the Dem in GA

but what do I know let’s vote and count the votes

He's 11 points behind now. How's he going to close the gap when he's afraid to debate Warnock? I mean, I don't blame him because he's dumber than a bag of hair, but me thinks your head is in the sand - or Red clay.

 

[Willence]

He's 11 points behind now. How's he going to close the gap when he's afraid to debate Warnock? I mean, I don't blame him because he's dumber than a bag of hair, but me thinks your head is in the sand - or Red clay.

He's not 11 points behind. Is there anything you don't cherry pick? I think it's very possible maybe even likely that Walker loses but I also know that that poll was an outlier based on other polling that's been done.

 

[Jjh7]

Sorry. I try not to be overly critical of people in positions way more important than mine with way more information to make decisions than I have, especially when these people are smarter than me. Same reason you'll never see me on here questioning most coaching or player decisions on a Monday morning after a game.

That being said, I do think in hindsight the fed might wish they had spent more of the years 1996 to current at higher interest rates. For the first time in our country's history wealth grew at a faster rate than GDP. Only one way one can acquire more wealth.....that is to get it from someone else. But again, hindsight is 20/20

I can respect that stance, ill take people who respect what they dont know over those that pretend that they do every day of the week. I do think everyone should feel capable of questioning experts/leaders in any given field though. In this case im familiar with these people, my work is pretty directly linked them, and i have a ton of personal interest in the world of markets, economic theory, currencies etc and their history. Most are very smart, but smart doesnt necessarily make you good at your job. Thats where the fed is, they have massively complex stochastic models youd have to be highly intelligent to create. But youre a fool to think any model built off regression analysis can effectively map the future path of an economy as dynamic and large as this. Theyre now on 15 years of getting everything wrong - at a certain point even those unfamiliar with whats on their plate have to start saying what the hell are you doing. And this didnt begin 15 years ago, thats just when decades of assumed expertise and control blew up on them. The reason i really lay into them though is that theyve never once had a willingness to look internally and ask themselves are they the problem or consider maybe theres a flaw in their process. Mistakes happen and those i could accept…refusing to admit mistakes or even acknowledge that possibility is where they condemn themselves.

not sure i agree on that last point though, innovation in industry or the invention of new technologies expands the pie for all. Its what weve been missing - a rising tide lifts all ships. Instead large companies insulate themselves lobbying for regulation that stymies competition and instead of investing in organic growth initiatives theyve been racing to be the first co to lbo itself

 

[dpic73]

He's not 11 points behind. Is there anything you don't cherry pick? I think it's very possible maybe even likely that Walker loses but I also know that that poll was an outlier based on other polling that's been done.

I don't like it that you're right because you annoy the piss out of me, but the last poll I saw or heard showed that lead. I just checked and Warnock is ahead in every poll but not by that amount.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

He's 11 points behind now. How's he going to close the gap when he's afraid to debate Warnock? I mean, I don't blame him because he's dumber than a bag of hair, but me thinks your head is in the sand - or Red clay.

yesterday he was 3 behind and closing

I think the NC will win the day for him

 

[TigerGrowls]

I think a major public influencer of what the public thinks is what the talking heads (media & politicians) are saying. We may be heading for a recession, but we obviously not in one now. Demand and jobs are just too strong at the present time. Also, recessions are a natural part of our economy and are not something the public needs to go crazy about. I have lived thru a dozen or so recessions and only one that stands out is 2008-2009 which was sudden and severe. It had major implications to the business I was in and my personal finances. Now, I pay more for groceries and gas and my IRA is not robust, but my life has not changed and my home home has greatly increased as an asset. Most of us are more concerned with conference re-alignment and the PGA/LIV controversies.

Good for you brother. We all need to try and be happy in our lives. I think we could and can do much better going forward though. Elections do have consequences and we are living it.

 

[TigerGrowls]

IT'S OFFICIAL: Second Quarter GDP Comes In at Negative 0.9 Percent -- US OFFICIALLY ENTERS BIDEN RECESSION (Video) | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft

US RECESSION WATCH — Second Quarter GDP comes in at negative 0.9%.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

 

[OleFastball]

They changed the definition of recession on Wikipedia just like the CDC changed the definition of vaccine after it became obvious the Covid shot didn’t prevent transmission.

if you don’t like the results, just change the definition. Vwahllah

 

[WapPride]

voila*

 

[OleFastball]

voila*

I prefer vwahllah. If you can change definitions I can change spellings.

 

[Jjh7]

i am just a poor country bumpkin who has a little bit of what the Lord has allowed me to work to earn and pay a little to myself

it amazes me what people think all the time

And in defense of stupidity by many people other than me , I do that myself sometimes so we all go off the reservation on occasion OOPS a racial Indian Joke LOL

I will concede a portion of my post that you disagree with will probably trend to your idea

I am thinking there is a deflationary spiral will follow an inflationary or supply side breakdown

Yes deflation will be the end game I just think we will have a huge bulge in costs at first and then your idea will hit the fan

all of my thinking is speculation and not backed by an Ivy League degree

So in principle we are pretty much on the same page

On stocks holding onto Microsoft bought at like 17 and now hitting the moon

Rest are history with a few exceptions

I do expect a huge drop in stock prices but just as likely it may boom as once everyone realizes we are past start of the recession they will probably be hunting where to park cash

For sure on the same page, im a nerd with markets, economic theory, monetary policy etc. i make my living in it and genuinely enjoy any conversation on the subject whether i agree or disagree so long as the tone remains mutually respectful.

ive made my way into the thick of things i suppose but like you my background is not pedigreed so i had to grind my way there.

and yes, i agree with you on the short term potential for explosive inflationary events - though in my view while the consumer impact on price is inflationary i expect it to be driven by supply shock and not traditional inflation. In cpi/pce terms though those price effects flow through and so seeing as such is saying the same thing a different way.

i have some long term holds i see as safe to survive and will roll with the price swings since i wont need the liquidity but i sold most of my longs early this year and have positioned myself short on equities, long duration as near term payoff moves.

what im most curious about is the catalyst for the big move downward, id never bother trying to time it and i dont have strong conviction but a very interesting conversation

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

Jjh7 this response follows as to goals

Having worked all my life and lived as I wanted I am now on the back end

My family and kids are doing fine and at this point I am devoting a lot of time to public service

Trying to change the curve of socialism, hate, incivility , and such you see on this site as if you wander across many sites there is more than enough hate and power lust to go around

I am working in both volunteer and a public position to try to steer the boat of governance and the human experience in a direction of making the world in the simplest of terms a better place starting with each individual and then spreading the culture

My work is a drop in the ocean of hare but if enough rain drops fall maybe one day we are filling the ocean with good

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

Your article explains it - do we have an issue with the bolded below?

"Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes."

I saw Larry Summers on tv last night, someone who's respected by both sides, and he said even if the numbers are negative on Thursday, that does not indicate a recession.

Please use the Biden talking points that it is not a recession

It is an economic transition

The US is moving from disaster to another

Since I understand the lunacy my investment strategy is working great

Munching the popcorn and dipping Diet Coke while I watch the circus

It’s time to send in the clowns

 

[dpic73]

Please use the Biden talking points that it is not a recession

It is an economic transition

The US is moving from disaster to another

Since I understand the lunacy my investment strategy is working great

Munching the popcorn and dipping Diet Coke while I watch the circus

It’s time to send in the clowns

I hate to rain on your doomsday predictions because your hyperbole is always entertaining. I'll be laughing at you while you eat your movie snacks in your bomb shelter, waiting for the world to end. You know why? Because the US economy is nimble and robust and ALWAYS turns around. We will be fine...

 

[PalmettoTiger1]

I hate to rain on your doomsday predictions because your hyperbole is always entertaining. I'll be laughing at you while you eat your movie snacks in your bomb shelter, waiting for the world to end. You know why? Because the US economy is nimble and robust and ALWAYS turns around. We will be fine...

To be clear I WIll be fine. Nimble and fast on my feet. The world is in dire straits because of Biden because when the US catches a cold the rest of the world gets Covid

I agree that in the end the world will survive and it will survive because the present governance will turn so many people to conservatism and sound economic policies that Socialism and anarchy, mob hate and violence of the Democrats and left and liberals will dark in the Sunshine of Enlightenment

If I did not have bad knees I would offer to a gentlemen’s Dance Fight Dual

Long Gone are the Days that Travolta feared my arrival on the Dance Floor

Fred Astaire I was the amateur and he was the King

 

[Jjh7]

Jjh7 this response follows as to goals

Having worked all my life and lived as I wanted I am now on the back end

My family and kids are doing fine and at this point I am devoting a lot of time to public service

Trying to change the curve of socialism, hate, incivility , and such you see on this site as if you wander across many sites there is more than enough hate and power lust to go around

I am working in both volunteer and a public position to try to steer the boat of governance and the human experience in a direction of making the world in the simplest of terms a better place starting with each individual and then spreading the culture

My work is a drop in the ocean of hare but if enough rain drops fall maybe one day we are filling the ocean with good

Very awesome to hear. Honestly i think a lot about what it takes to get back to country with a healthy culture and optimism and the number one thing is people who genuinely want to make a difference for others.

im i suppose on the younger side- now mid 30s so despite feeling young im sadly not - but i got to a position where i could exit the corporate rat race and go on my own. A lot of my focus is how i can make the most difference for the most people.