Thanks man - appreciate the education.
Remember this next time you are near empty…
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You’re very welcome—remember, it’s worth what you paid for it. LoL.
Appreciate your insight!
Curious what your thoughts are on the facilities Bill Gages is funding? I’ve read where he investing a huge amount into trying to find ways to build smaller and safer nuclear plants that can even utilize waste as a source of fuel (I think I read the technology, while not there is getting closer).
In tiny Wyoming town, Bill Gates bets big on nuclear power
A tiny Wyoming town faces transformation when a company started by Bill Gates builds a new type of nuclear power plant there.
apnews.com
Again….i have seen zero evidence to support your claim. The last data I saw showed that as a country we continue to expand our production while at the same time our usage is flattening. That is exactly the opposite of your claim. Not trying to pick a fight, but if you are going to respond to my post with bad takes….I’m probably going to call you on It. Simple as that.
Appreciate your insight!
Curious what your thoughts are on the facilities Bill Gages is funding? I’ve read where he investing a huge amount into trying to find ways to build smaller and safer nuclear plants that can even utilize waste as a source of fuel (I think I read the technology, while not there is getting closer).
In tiny Wyoming town, Bill Gates bets big on nuclear power
A tiny Wyoming town faces transformation when a company started by Bill Gates builds a new type of nuclear power plant there.
“Natrium” is the name of the plant, LoL. How clever. I like the idea because I believe nuclear is part of the answer. Retraining an existing workforce is also a smart thing to do and the right thing to do.
As the article states, sodium cooled reactors are not a new technology, but the reality is that Nukes generate a considerable amount of waste heat, so sodium cooling is one option. The heat issue is why a 1975 State Water Board policy out here, drove all but one of our plants to the coast…you know, that cold Pacific Ocean is a great heat sink…until you change direction & promulgate a policy in 2010 that gradually phases out your use of coastal seawater for cooling…a transition to closed cycle cooling (“cooling towers”) is one option, but seawater is one of the most corrosive naturally occurring fluids on the planet…and cooling towers create fogging issues…just ask Bowater.
The U.S. Will Be A Net Oil Importer In 2022 | OilPrice.com
The U.S. is on course to be a net oil importer in 2022, marking the second year in a row where it has imported more crude than it has exported
oilprice.com
I hope this will make you happy. I don't do bad takes...ever. I do facts as they stand at the time I post them. I don't guess. I don't believe. I don't extrapolate. I always stick with facts. I will have opinions based on the facts but they always start with facts. Doesn't mean I don't make mistakes because I have in the past and will in the future. But then I will always say I was wrong and correct myself. Unfortunately, we can't say the same about you. You've died on a lot of really crazy hills this past year or so.
This is the data over time. One of the things Trump did right is shown here. We went from being heavily dependent on foreign oil to being a net exporter of oil. That was good for all involved and we should pursue such policies again. Also, it's hard to know how valid your point about our use of oil going down is. Covid altered those numbers dramatically because people were working from home and travel was depressed versus prior to Covid. The verdict on that isn't going to be in on that for quite some time.
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The U.S. Will Be A Net Oil Importer In 2022 | OilPrice.com
The U.S. is on course to be a net oil importer in 2022, marking the second year in a row where it has imported more crude than it has exported
I hope this will make you happy. I don't do bad takes...ever. I do facts as they stand at the time I post them. I don't guess. I don't believe. I don't extrapolate. I always stick with facts. I will have opinions based on the facts but they always start with facts. Doesn't mean I don't make mistakes because I have in the past and will in the future. But then I will always say I was wrong and correct myself. Unfortunately, we can't say the same about you. You've died on a lot of really crazy hills this past year or so.
This is the data over time. One of the things Trump did right is shown here. We went from being heavily dependent on foreign oil to being a net exporter of oil. That was good for all involved and we should pursue such policies again. Also, it's hard to know how valid your point about our use of oil going down is. Covid altered those numbers dramatically because people were working from home and travel was depressed versus prior to Covid. The verdict on that isn't going to be in on that for quite some time.
My apologies. When people make statements (takes) contrary to what I see in data and offer no evidence I'm going to have my doubts that there is a source....and you don't have to look far in these threads to see why. I also tend to have a hard time when people start to give credit or place blame on politicians because its hardly ever that simple and it is never productive dialogue.
Here's what I'm looking at. Forecasts are from the February 2022 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and start in 2022.
US Production (Millions of Barrels per day)
2019 - 19.5
2020 - 18.6
2021 - 18.9
2022 - 20.3
2023 - 21.2
Growth since 2019 - 8.7%
US Consumption
2019 - 20.5
2020 - 18.2
2021 - 19.8
2022 - 20.7
2023 - 21.0
Consumption Growth - 2.0%
US Rig Counts bottomed at 172 in August of 2020 and are slowly increasing to current counts at 519 last Friday. Typically you see an increase in the rig count in correlation with spikes in oil prices, but its a slower rise. If you chart rig count and SPR inventories together you'll see opposite correlation. SPR hit a 10 year low last week, dipping below 1B barrels.
I find the macro trends of global production and consumption to tell quite the tale as far as the long term outlook of oil/gas. See below for same 5 year period.
Production Growth since 2019 - 2023
US- 8.7%
OPEC - -0.4% (this includes a projected 8% increase in 2022 over year prior)
Russia - 3.5%
Global - 3.0%
Consumption Growth 2019 - 2023
US - 2.0%
China - 15.8%
Global - 2.2%
So you have the left pushing for cutting reliance/consumption of oil/gas and the right pushing for increases in production. I just don't understand why they can't both realize how right they both are.
There are a lot of factors in what's happened. Biden's attitude toward oil and his temporary suspension of new leases is part of this. But people need to also recognize oil was far too cheap for much of Trump's time in office. It's only logical that oil companies were thinking why are we going to allow our product to be sold for so little? To just blame Biden for all this is wrong.
We really need to have some agreed upon areas between the parties because these wild pendulum swings are killing us. We need a consistent agreement on energy policy and how we move forward. There needs to be a push for a world that exists beyond petroleum. However, the crazy way the left and right go about this is just impossible to work with. We also need to have an agreement about immigration and about our foreign policy. The world is becoming VASTLY more dangerous through this as US credibility is crap and nations are exploring arming themselves in ways we haven't seen for a long time.
The United States has to lead and we have to try our best to have a steady hand on the wheel in an effort to hold the world in place. We also need to start working together rather than viciously opposing one another in the ways we have.
Agreed on all points. Mismanagement of immigration is so similar and harmful to our economy. Our politicians continuing to polarize these is just so detrimental.
I was actually reading an article on our historical relationships with China and Russia earlier this morning. It was interesting to read how our decision (under Nixon) to develop a working relationship with China was a huge swing in the balance of power at the end the Cold War. That was a REALLY big deal at the time. Makes you wonder if our deteriorating relationship there is a big reason why Russia/Putin find themselves empowered.
Interesting. Let's think about this a little. OPEC certainly has the ability to increase production and alieve some of the worldwide demand. President Biden has asked at least the Saudi's for help. The Saudi's have (will) not increased production. In my opinion, this has less to do with "supporting Putin" and an "I'm not supporting Biden" vote. Why?
First, the Obama/Biden administration was not kind to the GCC countries. They slowed a number of key weapons procurements down for these countries. They berated many for human rights violations. Most significantly, the Obama administration was the author of the disastrous Iran deal: JCPOA. This deal allowed Iran to fund their nuclear facilities and finance their disruptive brand of terrorism in the Middle East. The deal was so bad in the eyes of the GCC, it saw them normalizing relations with Israel to have another partner in their struggle against Iran. The Trump administration's walking away from the deal pleased the GCC for the security it gave them. Now the Biden administration is on the verge of granting Iran a number of concessions to allow their nuclear programs to continue.
In 2018, journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by the Saudis. There was an uproar in Congress about this. As a result, the US pulled all support from the Saudi's for their fight against the Iranian backed Houthi's in Yemen. Through the Houthi's, Iran is effectively attacking Saudi with SCUD's and drones. Without US helped, the Saudi's have a hard time striking at these launch sites in Yemen. Again, the Saud's don't see the US supporting their security interests. A theme played out with our withdraw from Afghanistan and lack of support for Ukraine.
As a Presidential candidate, Joe Biden called Saudi Arabia a “pariah” state with a government of “no redeeming social value.” He publically charged that the Saudi's crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, with the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. A statement which may be true, but not a statement that I would expect the Saud King to forget.
This is an interesting article on the topic.
Saudi Arabia Chooses Putin over Biden on Ukraine to Keep Oil Prices High
So, as we common Americans could get some relief on gas prices with OPEC and the Saud's agreement to increasing production, I am not surprised at their "FU" to the US. I can't say I blame them. I have no doubt that they would love to see the current administration to be sent packing in 2.5 years.
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It's horrendous and something we could fix so easily. I'm a very conservative guy and people on my side of the fence need to understand that immigration is what's going to keep the US on top because this is the greatest place in the world for the top minds to come and have nearly unlimited opportunity. The left needs to realize there needs to be a legal process for this and that a secure border and clear immigration process is a matter of national security. Unfortunately, both sides use it as a cudgel to their interest groups and no one really wants to do anything about it because it's a group of people that can easily be exploited. That's just rotten!
Yep! Increasing population numbers is a BIG part of what keeps the economy healthy and growing. Stop immigration and it'll put us in a recession. Allow too much and it will overwhelm the system. There's a happy medium that we never hear anyone talk about. Just more of the same problems....
Kinda funny - something like 90% of their population lives within 100 miles of the US border, or something like that.
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