SC DHEC says 89% of Coronavirus cases have recovered

[nashvegastiger]

This was shared by a State legislator friend from Columbia.

I also just read that despite an increase in cases in my county (population 239,000) in TN there are 14 hospitalizations. There were 12 in April.

Figured football fans needed some positive news.

https://www.wistv.com/2020/07/13/dh...9GedWOY5fQH-Vuj1AQKhz4K3ZrS_VejdP85Aj405GZZqI

 

[tigerworx]

Football fans need some Leadership in Leadership Positions............

 

[Buzzards Roost]

This was shared by a State legislator friend from Columbia.

I also just read that despite an increase in cases in my county (population 239,000) in TN there are 14 hospitalizations. There were 12 in April.

Figured football fans needed some positive news.
https://www.wistv.com/2020/07/13/dh...9GedWOY5fQH-Vuj1AQKhz4K3ZrS_VejdP85Aj405GZZqI
https://www.wistv.com/2020/07/13/dh...9GedWOY5fQH-Vuj1AQKhz4K3ZrS_VejdP85Aj405GZZqI

There better be a hell of a lot better recovery rate than an 89%. That’s 11% dead or forever sick. Of course the recovery rate is 98%. I don’t know if you even count the asymptomatic. Especially since you don’t know who they are.

 

[Howard's Jock]

Didn't read but 11% failure seems no bueno

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

This was shared by a State legislator friend from Columbia.

I also just read that despite an increase in cases in my county (population 239,000) in TN there are 14 hospitalizations. There were 12 in April.

Figured football fans needed some positive news.
https://www.wistv.com/2020/07/13/dh...9GedWOY5fQH-Vuj1AQKhz4K3ZrS_VejdP85Aj405GZZqI
https://www.wistv.com/2020/07/13/dh...9GedWOY5fQH-Vuj1AQKhz4K3ZrS_VejdP85Aj405GZZqI

that’s not good

 

[nashvegastiger]

There better be a hell of a lot better recovery rate than an 89%. That’s 11% dead or forever sick. Of course the recovery rate is 98%. I don’t know if you even count the asymptomatic. Especially since you don’t know who they are.

89% of cases are recovered. The rest are active except the 972 that have died. That makes the CFR 1.68 % of total confirmed cases but the IFR rate in SC including likely cases after antibody tests is in the .1 to .5% range. DHEC officials have already stated they think there have been another 80,000 plus cases. I honestly thought my TI brethren were more educated after all the Covid posts.

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

There better be a hell of a lot better recovery rate than an 89%. That’s 11% dead or forever sick. Of course the recovery rate is 98%. I don’t know if you even count the asymptomatic. Especially since you don’t know who they are.

the data is a bit skewed and makes a lot of assumptions both ways.

Those where hospitalization status was unknown were deemed as “recovered” based upon having no reported adverse outcome reported as of > 32 days since their illness onset.

so basically if you tested positive and were lost to follow up (say death at home, for example) you were still counted as recovered

 

[nashvegastiger]

that’s not good

Expect more understanding from a doctor.

You know the CFR is around 1.68% but the IFR is more like .1%.

We should be focused on active cases and hospitalizations.

The total cases comes into play for IFR and CFR.

And patients that die get a death certificate. If they tested positive but died of other causes they are being coded as Covid. You know that.

 

[jmh9713]

Expect more from an almost doctor.

You know the CFR is around 1.68% but the IFR is more like .1%.

We should be focused on active cases and hospitalizations.

The total cases comes into play for IFR and CFR.

And patients that die get a death certificate. If they tested positive but died of other causes they are being coded as Covid. You know that.

MF is gonna MF when it comes to this topic. Its his personal crusade

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

MF is gonna MF when it comes to this topic. Its his personal crusade

Critical thinking and nuanced conversations isn’t your forte. So I understand why you exude great frustration at my posts

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

Expect more from an almost doctor.

You know the CFR is around 1.68% but the IFR is more like .1%.

We should be focused on active cases and hospitalizations.

The total cases comes into play for IFR and CFR.

And patients that die get a death certificate. If they tested positive but died of other causes they are being coded as Covid. You know that.

I am a doctor. Not “almost”

And was merely responding to the data you yourself cited. Why do people get so angry?
I understand that it’s probably lower than whats being reported, but you are the one who chose that specific data set to support your argument - a data set that you yourself don’t believe. And though your argument may be sound, using that particular data set isn’t the best example.

You’re almost acting like I went out of my way to choose that data set to push an agenda that the recovery rate in the community is only 89%, when you were the one who brought it up and others ITT simply responded specifically to that data set.

Anyway, no need to take a jab at people over a simple discussion.

 

[nashvegastiger]

@MF123 fair enough. Please accept my apology. I will edit my post. I should have used different words to make my point.

 

[Buzzards Roost]

89% of cases are recovered. The rest are active except the 972 that have died. That makes the CFR 1.68 % of total confirmed cases but the IFR rate in SC including likely cases after antibody tests is in the .1 to .5% range. DHEC officials have already stated they think there have been another 80,000 plus cases. I honestly thought my TI brethren were more educated after all the Covid posts.

Right. I knew they were just talking about the ones they knew about. But what is surprising is the number of non dying still ill. Only a little talk about the permanently disabled. Most of mine might fit that group since the only ones I saw I did tracheostomies on. That was my only Covid involvement.
80,000 must be really low.

 

[scartiger]

Dang virus is so bad you have to get a test to even know you have/had it.

 

[TigerDentGuy]

the data is a bit skewed and makes a lot of assumptions both ways.

Those where hospitalization status was unknown were deemed as “recovered” based upon having no reported adverse outcome reported as of > 32 days since their illness onset.

so basically if you tested positive and were lost to follow up (say death at home, for example) you were still counted as recovered

Kinda equals out the ones that drowned but had tested positive so it's a "covid19" death. Huh

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

Kinda equals out the ones that drowned but had tested positive so it's a "covid19" death. Huh

Idk I was just pointing out a limitation in the data set, that the OP himself doesn’t believe. Seems like we all agree that the data is flawed, so I’m not sure what the point of contention is at this point

 

[Every name taken]

Watching the “cases with an outcome” the death percentage has dropped from 11% to 8%. Still high, but promising and as noted many asymptotic cases unreported would drop that much much lower

 

[TigerDentGuy]

Idk I was just pointing out a limitation in the data set, that the OP himself doesn’t believe. Seems like we all agree that the data is flawed, so I’m not sure what the point of contention is at this point

Def flawed. I think the main issue is that by happenstance or design. Will we ever know?
Doubtful

 

[BigTimeTiger]

Expect more understanding from a doctor.

You know the CFR is around 1.68% but the IFR is more like .1%.

We should be focused on active cases and hospitalizations.

The total cases comes into play for IFR and CFR.

And patients that die get a death certificate. If they tested positive but died of other causes they are being coded as Covid. You know that.

MF going all David Dukes on this lol

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

Def flawed. I think the main issue is that by happenstance or design. Will we ever know?
Doubtful

putting together a database/registry of this magnitude is tough. When you have so many variables and endpoints, most of the data will come from retrospective chart review. This is then contingent upon good patient records and documentation by the physician and their team taking care of the patient. It’s also contingent upon good follow up, with losses to follow up causing holes in data. Losses to follow up happen all the time because people may not answer their phone or return a phone call etc.

it’s tough , and I think states are doing their best to keep as good of records as possible while also making the results as transparent as possible - at least to the extent to which they have information on the variables of interest.

Health departments want to gather as much information as possible - it behooves them to.

 

[gcsoccer16]

A few posters on here can't handle any optimism with the Covid numbers. They are quick to dismiss even the hint of positive news. It's quite interesting.

 

[wmnesbitt]

Watching the “cases with an outcome” the death percentage has dropped from 11% to 8%. Still high, but promising and as noted many asymptotic cases unreported would drop that much much lower

I have been watching this stat over the last two weeks also. And it has steadily been dropping. Started at 12% and is now at 8%

obviously treatment is getting better. This is promising as well even if the data is complete trash. I dont trust the data for numerous reasons. But believe the data is skewed towards fear mongering. So improved numbers are harder to come by.

 

[stigers91]

the data is a bit skewed and makes a lot of assumptions both ways.

Those where hospitalization status was unknown were deemed as “recovered” based upon having no reported adverse outcome reported as of > 32 days since their illness onset.

so basically if you tested positive and were lost to follow up (say death at home, for example) you were still counted as recovered

I'm sure the died at home cases are rampant. While that is not what you sd, all numbers will have flaws, no reporting will be 100% accurate.

Death rates are nowhere close to keeping track with the spike in cases.

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

I'm sure the died at home cases are rampant. While that is not what you sd, all numbers will have flaws, no reporting will be 100% accurate.

Death rates are nowhere close to keeping track with the spike in cases.

yeah for sure. I was not attacking it, just merely pointing out a limitation - not even necessarily a “flaw”, which is why I didn’t use that word. It’s a limitation inherent to compiling a registry of this magnitude. Once you understand the limitations of a registry - which is population level data - you are better equipped to apply findings to an individual or context

 

[nashvegastiger]

I do actually think knowing that 89% of the total case count has already recovered is positive.

The media tends to focus on the total case count which is the biggest number so much that we forget that most people who have had this are better now.

The actual deaths when compared to total cases and total infections is a very very small number.

When we break it down further and focus only on deaths in people under 25 in good health the number is microscopic versus total cases.

This is why I believe it’s okay for college and high school kids to play football. If you’re Vulnerable or susceptible then you should stay home and avoid contact with young players until their season is over.

 

[gcsoccer16]

the data is a bit skewed and makes a lot of assumptions both ways.

Those where hospitalization status was unknown were deemed as “recovered” based upon having no reported adverse outcome reported as of > 32 days since their illness onset.

so basically if you tested positive and were lost to follow up (say death at home, for example) you were still counted as recovered

Do you also think the numbers of total deaths are "skewed"? As a Doctor, surely you agree some of the deaths were not covid related? Dying with something and from something are different Numbers can be manipulated both ways. Either way, the mortality rate is coming down. That's great news.

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

I do actually think knowing that 89% of the total case count has already recovered is positive.

The media tends to focus on the total case count which is the biggest number so much that we forget that most people who have had this are better now.

The actual deaths when compared to total cases and total infections is a very very small number.

When we break it down further and focus only on deaths in people under 25 in good health the number is microscopic versus total cases.

This is why I believe it’s okay for college and high school kids to play football. If you’re Vulnerable or susceptible then you should stay home and avoid contact with young players until their season is over.

I complied the data from DHEC and posted it on another thread. Can share it with you if you’d like.

 

[Howard's Jock]

I don't always agree with @MF123 but find him fair, intelligent, and informative. Never seemed over the top about this topic to me.

 

[nashvegastiger]

I complied the data from DHEC and posted it on another thread. Can share it with you if you’d like.

put a link in this thread if you don’t mind. I’ve studied Tennessee more closely until now. But with a freshmen at Clemson this fall and for other family reasons I’m very focused on SC now.

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

I don't always agree with @MF123 but find him fair, intelligent, and informative. Never seemed over the top about this topic to me.

Appreciate you saying this, @Howard's Jock . Seriously

 

[Shevlin77]

@MF123 fair enough. Please accept my apology. I will edit my post. I should have used different words to make my point.

wish more people followed your example of admitting a mistake. Lots of stubborn folks out there.

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

put a link in this thread if you don’t mind. I’ve studied Tennessee more closely until now. But with a freshmen at Clemson this fall and for other family reasons I’m very focused on SC now.

I decided to copy and past it over here. The thread turned into a shit show involving multiple simultaneous discussions. Wanted to spare you.

Before you look over it , just a few caveats:
1. This data was based on cases up until Sunday - that’s when I compiled it
2. Im not endorsing it and can’t speak to validity of it, nor did I attempt to extrapolate for antibody+ asymptomatic individuals. Any attempts to do so would be just a guess on what is also more than likely incomplete information.
3. This is a summation of data on the SCDHEC website that I decided to aggregate for simple reading for those interested or who are curious.
4. Any rates calculated were based on published data verifiable at a state health department website. I explained why I used the numerators and denominators I did.

Here’s the post:

—-
Some information regarding COVID cases in South Carolina for you or others who have previously expressed interest :

As of this morning, there are about 2,800 hospital beds available in S.C.
Nearly 8,000 are occupied. Among the occupied beds , about 1,400 are occupied by patients with confirmed COVID-19 or PUI.

—————

- State Population : 5.1 million

- COVID-19 tests conducted : 533,738

-
Total number of confirmed cases in S.C. = 52,419

Average age = 41
Median age = 39
% confirmed cases that required hospitalization = 12%
Number of active cases requiring mechanical ventilator support = 171
New cases for July 11 = 2,239
Percent positive for July 11 = 22.2%


Deaths = 929

Average age = 74
Median Age = 76
Age range of confirmed deaths = under age of 5 years of age (a toddler died today from COVID) - 104 y/o

-
% COVID deaths by age group :

—> 21-30 y/o : 0.8%
—> 31-40 y/o : 0.7%
—> 41-50 y/o : 3.1%
—> 51-60 y/o : 8.6%
—> 61-70 y/o : 21%

—
2019-2020 influenza season national mortality rate (using the lowest end of estimated people tested , and the highest reported death estimate. Doing this to give “worst possible” death rate) :

==> 0.15%

COVID-19 mortality rate for state of South Carolina ( 929 / 52,419 ) :

==> 1.77%

 

[nmerritt11]

Hahaha at anyone who believe the fatality rate of cases is more than even 1%...

 

[anon_yqoaxol227dby]

Hahaha at anyone who believe the fatality rate of cases is more than even 1%...

For all comers or stratified by age ?

Ive never thought it was more than 1% for all comers. Think it’s probably 0.4%-0.6%

 

[nashvegastiger]

Hahaha at anyone who believe the fatality rate of cases is more than even 1%...

when most states in this country locked down in March the prevailing sentiment was that it was around 3.4%.

Now that we are testing more and seeing a spike in cases but the death rate is falling we are being told wait two weeks for the death rate to increase. in reality the IFR is likely in the .1 to .5% range. Very low for young people.


I think in reality a lot more folks had it in March but we only tested the most sick cases. Now everyone is being tested and we are picking up more of the mild and asympotomatic cases and people are freaking out seeing and reading about positive cases. This is a deadly disease for the elderly and the infirm but it’s not nearly as dangerous for younger healthier folks.

The answer to living and managing Through this virus is how we protect our vulnerable populations while allowing younger healthier folks to work and go to school. We have to be able to withstand the positive cases and try to minimize spread. Most of all we have to protect the vulnerable.

 

[nmerritt11]

when most states in this country locked down in March the prevailing sentiment was that it was around 3.4%.

Now that we are testing more and seeing a spike in cases but the death rate is falling we are being told wait two weeks for the death rate to increase. in reality the IFR is likely in the .1 to .5% range. Very low for young people.


I think in reality a lot more folks had it in March but we only tested the most sick cases. Now everyone is being tested and we are picking up more of the mild and asympotomatic cases and people are freaking out seeing and reading about positive cases. This is a deadly disease for the elderly and the infirm but it’s not nearly as dangerous for younger healthier folks.

The answer to living and managing Through this virus is how we protect our vulnerable populations while allowing younger healthier folks to work and go to school. We have to be able to withstand the positive cases and try to minimize spread. Most of all we have to protect the vulnerable.

I am in long term care and yes it’s worse for the elderly but I also know a nursing home owner who has facilities in 3 states and has had 1 death

 

[nmerritt11]

For all comers or stratified by age ?

Ive never thought it was more than 1% for all comers. Think it’s probably 0.4%-0.6%

CDC
New data on COVID-19 is available daily," the document said. "Information about its biological and epidemiological characteristics remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values."

The document includes five scenarios. The first four are varying estimates of the disease's severity, from low to high, while the fifth represents the "current best estimate."

The range of estimates put the fatality rate for those showing symptoms between 0.2%-1%, with a "best estimate" of 0.4%.

It also places the number of asymptomatic cases between 20%-50%, with a "best estimate" of 35%.

By combining the two estimates, the estimated overall fatality rate of those infected with the virus – with and without symptoms – would be 0.26%.

According to NPR, the CDC has revised the estimate downward from its estimate in mid-April. Internal versions of the CDC scenario documents acquired by the Center for Public Integrity show that on April 14, the CDC had estimated a 0.33% fatality rate. That was up from a March 31 estimate of 0.16%.

 

[LC4R TIGER]

the data is a bit skewed and makes a lot of assumptions both ways.

Those where hospitalization status was unknown were deemed as “recovered” based upon having no reported adverse outcome reported as of > 32 days since their illness onset.

so basically if you tested positive and were lost to follow up (say death at home, for example) you were still counted as recovered

Good point but is it any worse than the same person who goes through multiple retest after an initial positive and each time it is counted toward the overall positive total ......

 

[trich24]

It’s amazing how so many of you refuse to have an objective conversation on this topic.

 

[Tiger1425]

Does it give a figure as to how many have had to go to the hospital? To me, that's the big deal. If you have to go to the hospital you are REALLY sick. And my understanding of this disease is that if you get really sick, it is no fun at all. One guy said it was like having an anvil on your chest 24/7.