And it ain’t good.
First things first, we obviously have to win out. That gets Clemson to 7-1 in the ACC. In no scenario will Clemson get the nod over SMU or Miami in a 3-way tie.
The 3 common opponents of each team are FSU and Louisville.
Miami 2-0
SMU 2-0
Clemson 1-1
Now let’s look if Miami or SMU loses one game and finish 7-1 to create a 2-way tie.
Let’s say SMU loses one. The common opponents are FSU, Louisville, Stanford, Pitt and UVA. For arguments sake, let’s say they lose to UVA.
This would put both Clemson and SMU at 4-1 against common opponents. Since this is still a tie, you have to go to the next tiebreaker, which is win % vs common opponents on their order of finish. If Pitt finishes higher ranked, you would go to the next highest team since we both are 1-0 against them. So the next team would be Louisville and SMU would get the nod since they went 1-0 and we went 0-1. I don’t see any scenario where Louisville isn’t the higher ranked team (after Pitt, if they lose to them) in the ACC given their remaining schedule.
If Miami were to lose one it would have to be to Wake Forest to create a tie with common opponents. Then the next tiebreaker would be the same that I explained with Louisville and we can’t win that one either (if the ACC standings go as they should).
Clemson’s best chance is SMU or Miami lose two games, which is farfetched, although crazier things have happened or get an at-large at 10-2 to the CFP.
If you’ve made it this far, correct me if I’m wrong lol. Go Tigers!
First things first, we obviously have to win out. That gets Clemson to 7-1 in the ACC. In no scenario will Clemson get the nod over SMU or Miami in a 3-way tie.
The 3 common opponents of each team are FSU and Louisville.
Miami 2-0
SMU 2-0
Clemson 1-1
Now let’s look if Miami or SMU loses one game and finish 7-1 to create a 2-way tie.
Let’s say SMU loses one. The common opponents are FSU, Louisville, Stanford, Pitt and UVA. For arguments sake, let’s say they lose to UVA.
This would put both Clemson and SMU at 4-1 against common opponents. Since this is still a tie, you have to go to the next tiebreaker, which is win % vs common opponents on their order of finish. If Pitt finishes higher ranked, you would go to the next highest team since we both are 1-0 against them. So the next team would be Louisville and SMU would get the nod since they went 1-0 and we went 0-1. I don’t see any scenario where Louisville isn’t the higher ranked team (after Pitt, if they lose to them) in the ACC given their remaining schedule.
If Miami were to lose one it would have to be to Wake Forest to create a tie with common opponents. Then the next tiebreaker would be the same that I explained with Louisville and we can’t win that one either (if the ACC standings go as they should).
Clemson’s best chance is SMU or Miami lose two games, which is farfetched, although crazier things have happened or get an at-large at 10-2 to the CFP.
If you’ve made it this far, correct me if I’m wrong lol. Go Tigers!
