Myself and several others have been beating the drum for the last few weeks reminding everyone that there is a scenario where winning a power conference is not a guaranteed ticket to the playoffs. Technically the five highest ranked conference champions get an autobid regardless of conference. It’s assumed that will generally include the P4, especially in the division-less era. But it’s not assured.
In fact this year there was shaping up to be a scenario where a 12-1 MWC champion Boise State and an 11-2 AAC champion Tulane both found themselves ranked above a power conference champ - maybe even 10-3 Clemson, but much more likely whoever comes out of the Big 12. However last night, in college football’s only Thanksgiving Day game, Tulane lost at home to Memphis, effectively ending any shot at this happening this year (barring an insane scenario where 7-5 West Virginia wins the Big 12, technically still possible).
Some folks have said this will never happen despite what the rules say, that the committee will always bend to get the P4 in. I think with the top teams from the MWC moving to the PAC 12 in 2026, and the Big 12’s tendency to cannibalize itself, there is an eventuality where the PAC and AAC get their champs in over the Big 12 (or maybe the ACC if we have vacated the conference…?). Especially if the new PAC is seen as a sort of P4.5. But it wont be this year.
What do you think? Will two G5 champs ever get in at the expense of a P4 champ?
In fact this year there was shaping up to be a scenario where a 12-1 MWC champion Boise State and an 11-2 AAC champion Tulane both found themselves ranked above a power conference champ - maybe even 10-3 Clemson, but much more likely whoever comes out of the Big 12. However last night, in college football’s only Thanksgiving Day game, Tulane lost at home to Memphis, effectively ending any shot at this happening this year (barring an insane scenario where 7-5 West Virginia wins the Big 12, technically still possible).
Some folks have said this will never happen despite what the rules say, that the committee will always bend to get the P4 in. I think with the top teams from the MWC moving to the PAC 12 in 2026, and the Big 12’s tendency to cannibalize itself, there is an eventuality where the PAC and AAC get their champs in over the Big 12 (or maybe the ACC if we have vacated the conference…?). Especially if the new PAC is seen as a sort of P4.5. But it wont be this year.
What do you think? Will two G5 champs ever get in at the expense of a P4 champ?
