There seems to be some confusion on this point on this board. In fact all over the internet I see it - people wrongly believe that the P4 champs each get an auto bid, or even that they each get the automatic bye.
I don’t blame people for believing this as ESPN and other national outlets tend to treat it like the truth, but the fact is it is not. The five highest ranked conference champions - from any conference - receive autobids. The four highest of those receive the bye. That’s the rule. There is no delineation for power conferences.
The reason it is treated like truth is that it seems highly unlikely to most that two G5 champs would be ranked higher than a power conference champ, especially in the divisionless era. But consider the eminently plausible scenario where every game outside the ACC goes chalk, Miami loses to Syracuse, Clemson loses to Scar, and then Clemson beats SMU in the ACC title game. The final rankings could easily look like this:
1. Oregon, 13-0, Big Ten Champ
2. Texas, 12-1, SEC Champ
3. Ohio State, 11-2
4. Penn State, 11-1
5. Notre Dame, 11-1
6. Alabama, 10-3
7. Georgia, 10-2
8. Indiana, 11-1
9. Ole Miss, 10-2
10. Boise State, 11-2, Mountain West Champ
11. Tennessee, 10-2
12. Colorado, 11-2, Big 12 Champ
13. South Carolina, 9-3
14. Miami, 10-2
15. Tulane, 11-2, AAC Champ
16. Texas A&M, 9-3
17. Clemson, 10-3, ACC Champ
18. SMU, 11-2
In this scenario, Clemson, and the ACC is left out. The seeding would be:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Boise State
4. Colorado
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
7. Notre Dame
8. Alabama
9. Georgia
10. Indiana
11. Ole Miss
12. Tulane
If you want to quibble with Tulane and say the committee would rank Clemson higher, okay, but if Clemson loses to SC then at the very least it would come down to that and we would be sweating selection Sunday.
Now imagine Army pulls off the upset against Notre Dame and wins the AAC, finishing 12-0. That would arguably be a scenario where even 11-2 Clemson would be at risk of being left out. Army would be undefeated with a much better win than Clemson. A 10-3 Clemson is undoubtedly left out in this scenario.
Is any of this the most likely outcome? No, but Clemson making the ACC championship game at all isn’t the most likely outcome either. The point is that beating South Carolina could be just as important to making the playoffs as winning the game in Charlotte the next week.
Ultimately, this is what losing to Louisville at home does to you.
I don’t blame people for believing this as ESPN and other national outlets tend to treat it like the truth, but the fact is it is not. The five highest ranked conference champions - from any conference - receive autobids. The four highest of those receive the bye. That’s the rule. There is no delineation for power conferences.
The reason it is treated like truth is that it seems highly unlikely to most that two G5 champs would be ranked higher than a power conference champ, especially in the divisionless era. But consider the eminently plausible scenario where every game outside the ACC goes chalk, Miami loses to Syracuse, Clemson loses to Scar, and then Clemson beats SMU in the ACC title game. The final rankings could easily look like this:
1. Oregon, 13-0, Big Ten Champ
2. Texas, 12-1, SEC Champ
3. Ohio State, 11-2
4. Penn State, 11-1
5. Notre Dame, 11-1
6. Alabama, 10-3
7. Georgia, 10-2
8. Indiana, 11-1
9. Ole Miss, 10-2
10. Boise State, 11-2, Mountain West Champ
11. Tennessee, 10-2
12. Colorado, 11-2, Big 12 Champ
13. South Carolina, 9-3
14. Miami, 10-2
15. Tulane, 11-2, AAC Champ
16. Texas A&M, 9-3
17. Clemson, 10-3, ACC Champ
18. SMU, 11-2
In this scenario, Clemson, and the ACC is left out. The seeding would be:
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Boise State
4. Colorado
5. Ohio State
6. Penn State
7. Notre Dame
8. Alabama
9. Georgia
10. Indiana
11. Ole Miss
12. Tulane
If you want to quibble with Tulane and say the committee would rank Clemson higher, okay, but if Clemson loses to SC then at the very least it would come down to that and we would be sweating selection Sunday.
Now imagine Army pulls off the upset against Notre Dame and wins the AAC, finishing 12-0. That would arguably be a scenario where even 11-2 Clemson would be at risk of being left out. Army would be undefeated with a much better win than Clemson. A 10-3 Clemson is undoubtedly left out in this scenario.
Is any of this the most likely outcome? No, but Clemson making the ACC championship game at all isn’t the most likely outcome either. The point is that beating South Carolina could be just as important to making the playoffs as winning the game in Charlotte the next week.
Ultimately, this is what losing to Louisville at home does to you.
