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The math ain't mathin: Adding SMU, Stanford, and Cal to the ACC

MisterWorst

Gold Member
Jun 6, 2023
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I have no idea if this is how it works, but let's do some back of the envelope math and assume that SMU, Cal, and Stanford all join the ACC.

Recent data from Google says that ESPN has 74 million subscribers. In 2021, US Population was 331.9 million, with California having 39.24 million and Texas 29.53 million. This means that 20.72% of the US Population lives in California and Texas. Assuming that ESPN subscriptions are evenly distributed across the total population, these two states have 15.33 million subs.

Lets now assume that nobody in these two states was subscribed to the ACC Network, meaning that no revenue from these two states was generated for the ACC. Lets next assume that every single ESPN subscriber in these two states decides to subscribe to the ACC Network. 15.33 million new ACCN subscriptions at $1.25 per is 19.16 million in new revenue.

The ACC total revenue was 617 million, with an average payout of 39.5 million to each school. This payout is an average, meaning that ND likely got a lot less, and other schools got a lot more. Assuming FSU's statement is correct and they (and others) get 7% of the total revenue, this means that each non-ND member is getting 43.19 million. This leaves 12 million over for ND and the ACC's own expenses.

Adding SMU, Stanford, and Cal now brings in 19.16 million which, when added to the 617 million we already have, totals 636.16 million. Lets now assume that each of the three new schools only receive a half payout, similar to OU and Washington joining the B1G. Additionally, let's assume that the payout for ND and the ACC remains at 12 million. This leaves 624.16 million to be distributed across the members. Across 17 schools, the payout would be 36.72 million. If the three new members only get half, that takes it to 18.35 million (which seems very, very low). That would leave 55.05 million from the half shares the three schools don't get to be divided evenly among the 14 full members, giving Clemson, FSU, and everyone else 40.65 million.

So assuming this is how this all works and the ACC isn't going to be getting additional revenue from ESPN or anyone else by adding these three schools, Clemson is about to get a 3 million dollar hair cut.
 
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