*****This weekend’s games should be the best of the season even though the name brands are lacking. Look at the data.

[GoodWord28]

History says that teams ranked #11-#15 are in danger this weekend

Over the past 3 seasons, Week 3 has been brutal for teams ranked #11-15 in the AP Poll. Since the 2021 season, teams ranked #11-15 in Week 3:

**- Have a losing record (7-8 over the past 3 seasons)**

**- Are 2-8 against P5 opponents** *(the #1 Bama vs. #11 UF game in 2021 was the only instance where the #11-15 team was ranked lower than their opponent)*

**- Are 2-5 against unranked P5 opponents**

I was pretty stunned when I uncovered this. A 2-8 record against Power 5 opponents over three years... for teams ranked just outside the top 10...

Below is the supporting data:

---------------------------------------------------------------------

**2023**

|Ranked Team|Opponent |Final Result|
|:-|:-|:-|
|#11 Tennessee|Florida (unranked)|**LOSS** UF 29, Tenn 16|
|#12 Utah|Weber State (FCS)|**WIN** Utah 31, Weber St. 7|
|#13 Oregon|Hawaii (unranked)|**WIN** Oregon 55, Hawaii 10|
|#14 LSU|Mississippi St. (unranked)|**WIN** LSU 41, MSU 14|
|#15 Kansas State|Missouri (unranked)|**LOSS** Mizzou 30, K St. 27|

**2022**

|Ranked Team|Opponent |Final Result|
|:-|:-|:-|
|#11 Michigan State|Washington (unranked)|**LOSS** UW 39, MSU 28|
|#12 BYU|#25 Oregon |**LOSS** Oregon 41, BYU 20|
|#13 Miami|#24 Texas A&M|**LOSS** A&M 17, UM 9|
|#14 Utah|San Diego St. (unranked)|**WIN** Utah 35, SDSU 7|
|#15 Tennessee|Akron (unranked)|**WIN** Tenn 63, Akron 3|

**2021**

|Ranked Team|Opponent |Final Result|
|:-|:-|:-|
|#11 Florida|#1 Alabama|**LOSS** Bama 31, UF 29|
|#12 Notre Dame|Purdue (unranked)|**WIN** ND 27, Purdue 13|
|#13 UCLA|Fresno State (unranked)|**LOSS** Fresno 40, UCLA 37|
|#14 Iowa State|UNLV (unranked)|**WIN** ISU 48, UNLV 3|
|#15 Virginia Tech|West Virginia (unranked)|**LOSS** WVU 27, VT 21|

------------------------------------------------------------------

**2024**

Any predictions? Does the trend end this year? *(P.S. - #11 USC lucked out with the BYE)*

|Ranked Team|Opponent |Final Result|
|:-|:-|:-|
|#11 Southern Cal|BYE|-|
|#12 Utah|Utah State (unranked)|**?**|
|#13 Oklahoma State|Tulsa (unranked)|**?**|
|#14 Kansas State|#20 Arizona |**?**|
|#15 Oklahoma|Tulane (unranked)|**?**|

 

[Matt Laurer]

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[GoodWord28]

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[Matt Laurer]

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[vbranno]

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[yoseftiger]

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