Trump and Harris on Housing Crisis - newsletter

[kgwillison]

Professionally, I work in the housing/housing finance/insurance industry. I created and write a twice monthly newsletter on housing policy that is sent out to 150,000+ mostly mortgage professionals but people who influence housing policy in Washington, as well.

While it is no secret where I stand politically among TI posters, I play it straight on the job. I have to.

Here is a link to my latest newsletter on the ways both candidates plan to address the affordable homeownership crisis we face. Thought some people might be interested:

Capital Commentary: Trump, Harris and the Housing Crisis

 

[fatpiggy]

Professionally, I work in the housing/housing finance/insurance industry. I created and write a twice monthly newsletter on housing policy that is sent out to 150,000+ mostly mortgage professionals but people who influence housing policy in Washington, as well.

While it is no secret where I stand politically among TI posters, I play it straight on the job. I have to.

Here is a link to my latest newsletter on the ways both candidates plan to address the affordable homeownership crisis we face. Thought some people might be interested:

Capital Commentary: Trump, Harris and the Housing Crisis

If democrats don’t have a plan to bring inflation down to 2% without raising rates none of that matters.

Housing will remain out of reach if inflation remains high because people value a roof over their head over all else, except food and water. Rates will have to remain high if inflation is persistent thus preventing the low and middle class from being able to afford housing.

We peaked at 9% inflation under Bidenonics. The stated goal is 2% inflation. We currently remain at 3% inflation while major economies like the Eurozone have brought their inflation back down to target ( 2.2%)

Growth is the only way out of this disaster created by both parties. You can not tax your way to growth.

The economy must be stimulated so we can lower interest rates and lower inflation at the same time.

As it is, we are about to cut interest rates when inflation is STILL 50% higher than its stated goal.

Get ready for more inflation under Bidenomics. More regulations, more taxes, more high borrowing costs, continual housing crisis.


Democrats had 3.9 years to do something about it but didn’t. Time to give the republicans a turn. Much better option than turning the economy over to someone so inexperienced they don’t even know when they are proposing price controls.

If we need more housing and that is our problem? I’m going to go with the dude with his name plastered in big letters across the most beautiful buildings in our country.

 

[fatpiggy]

Yup

 

[DW4_2016]

If democrats don’t have a plan to bring inflation down to 2% without raising rates none of that matters.

Housing will remain out of reach if inflation remains high because people value a roof over their head over all else, except food and water. Rates will have to remain high if inflation is persistent thus preventing the low and middle class from being able to afford housing.

We peaked at 9% inflation under Bidenonics. The stated goal is 2% inflation. We currently remain at 3% inflation while major economies like the Eurozone have brought their inflation back down to target ( 2.2%)

Growth is the only way out of this disaster created by both parties. You can not tax your way to growth.

The economy must be stimulated so we can lower interest rates and lower inflation at the same time.

As it is, we are about to cut interest rates when inflation is STILL 50% higher than its stated goal.

Get ready for more inflation under Bidenomics. More regulations, more taxes, more high borrowing costs, continual housing crisis.


Democrats had 3.9 years to do something about it but didn’t. Time to give the republicans a turn. Much better option than turning the economy over to someone so inexperienced they don’t even know when they are proposing price controls.

If we need more housing and that is our problem? I’m going to go with the dude with his name plastered in big letters across the most beautiful buildings in our country.

We can’t compare ourselves to Europe. We were told this as the blanket republican talking point post COVID when our inflation was much better than theirs. Now that they took a harder hit for a faster return.

We’ve been short housing since before COVID when someone else was president. Forgot who, but he had years to help the problem too.

As desperate as you are to blame this on liberals, the housing crisis isn’t up to one party to solve. Been ongoing through times of both parties owning DC.

 

[fatpiggy]

We can’t compare ourselves to Europe. We were told this as the blanket republican talking point post COVID when our inflation was much better than theirs. Now that they took a harder hit for a faster return.

We’ve been short housing since before COVID when someone else was president. Forgot who, but he had years to help the problem too.

As desperate as you are to blame this on liberals, the housing crisis isn’t up to one party to solve. Been ongoing through times of both parties owning DC.

I brought that up specifically because the usual rebuttal I get from democrats like dpic and yoshi.

They constantly used to say “well the rest of the world has worse inflation.”

Well they no longer do. The rest of the world has brought their inflation back down while we have not.

We have persistently high inflation that is CURRENTLY 50% higher than the stated goal.

And we are about to cut rates. I just don’t see how housing becomes affordable under those Bidenomic conditions.

Kamala had a decent proposal on housing but she is such a bad messenger no one knows anything about it. Because she is too weak to control the narrative. Does she even have a website that concretely lists her positions?

 

[fatpiggy]

 

[kgwillison]

I brought that up specifically because the usual rebuttal I get from democrats like dpic and yoshi.

They constantly used to say “well the rest of the world has worse inflation.”

Well they no longer do. The rest of the world has brought their inflation back down while we have not.

We have persistently high inflation that is CURRENTLY 50% higher than the stated goal.

And we are about to cut rates. I just don’t see how housing becomes affordable under those Bidenomic conditions.

Kamala had a decent proposal on housing but she is such a bad messenger no one knows anything about it. Because she is too weak to control the narrative. Does she even have a website that concretely lists her positions?

I think people are becoming aware of Harris’ position to build 3 million more homes.

I was delighted today that the NYT wrote an article that closely parallels my newsletter (did the Times steal my idea 😉?) praising her build more housing and criticizing her down payment assistance plan.

I am going to be with the architect of the Harris plan in about a week in North Carolina and we are going to be talking about the genesis of her plan and what didn’t get included in it.

The housing shortage long precedes Biden. As I noted in my newsletter, Trump created a council to find ways to eliminate barriers to affordable housing but they dilly dallied and its final report was issued Jan 19, 2021. Biden was inaugurated the next day.

As for inflation, it would be irresponsible for the Fed not to cut rates with the economy slowing. The Fed has waited too long as it is. If Trump were president now he would be screaming daily at Jerome Powell to cut rates. Biden respects the independence of the Fed even if he wishes cuts had been made earlier.

NYT: Harris & Trump Housing Plans

 

[firegiver]

Rates need to be cut. I'm not really for the 25k assistance, it does NOT make sense to me. It just punishes a lot more people than it helps in reality.

We need more homes though, and honestly, I would have appreciated a much harder line on corporations buying real estate.

 

[Willence]

Rates need to be cut. I'm not really for the 25k assistance, it does NOT make sense to me. It just punishes a lot more people than it helps in reality.

We need more homes though, and honestly, I would have appreciated a much harder line on corporations buying real estate.

I believe you are correct. The practice of hedge funds and investment groups purchasing mass quantities of homes needs to be put to an end. It has been a disaster.

I don't know how we promote greater inventory because builders are just not going to get out over their skis ever again after what happened in the great recession. The matter of overall inventory is more complex because there is a lot of inventory in rural areas but the country has urbanized beyond what we're capable of supporting. Everything in society has centralized to far too great a degree. It's created impossible situations in massively rising costs for housing.

I would love a rate cut because it has been very difficult for me in my industry. However we need to do it in such a way that we don't have a rebound of inflation. I don't agree with the feds entire policy related to how they manage inflation but that's a separate argument entirely.

 

[WapPride]

Rates need to be cut. I'm not really for the 25k assistance, it does NOT make sense to me. It just punishes a lot more people than it helps in reality.

We need more homes though, and honestly, I would have appreciated a much harder line on corporations buying real estate.

Agreed with all of this

 

[kgwillison]

The interesting thing is that the much higher interest rates have had little impact on housing prices. Usually when rates are up, prices fall because the most critical factor to homeownership is monthly mortgage payment.

But given the shortage of homes, prices have still risen even if the growth in prices has slowed.

It is a difficult problem to solve. People would not be satisfied with the small, simple homes that were built for returning soldiers after WWII when homeownership skyrocketed. We are spoiled by high end finishing touches and the nicest appliances. And all that costs money. Lots of it.

There have been a few cities hit hard by investors buying homes for Single Family Rental: Atlanta, Phoenix and Dallas come to mind but overall only 3% of housing stock is owned by institutional investors. If we can build a lot more homes, they will sell those properties on their own because they won’t be profitable much longer.