Rank
5
Hunter Renfrow
Las Vegas Raiders · Age 26
The third-down master and route-running wizard stepped up in a big way for the Raiders in 2021, leading the team in receiving yards (1,038) despite averaging just 10.1 yards per reception.
What we already know about Renfrow shined through in the numbers: His sure hands made him an easy go-to target for Derek Carr, no matter where his routes originated, and the way he ran his routes made him a problem for defenses in almost every situation. Renfrow finished fourth in average target separation when aligned wide, racked up the sixth-most receiving yards (643) when aligned in the slot, and tied for 10th in receiving touchdowns caught outside the numbers (five).
When this guy lined up in a bunch formation, he was devastating. Renfrow ran 17 more routes than the next-closest player out of bunch sets, saw 11 more targets, caught 11 more passes and gained 49 more yards than the next-closest receiver. It's no surprise, then, that he led the NFL with four touchdowns on out routes, catching 23 of 29 targets for 195 yards.
No matter where he lined up, Renfrow was a tough cover and an easy target. He's not a burner and won't torch defenses downfield, but he'll make plenty of money with his skill set. Add in the sure hands and you have a top-five receiver at exceeding expectations.
Rank
4
Kendrick Bourne
New England Patriots · Age 26
Now here's a surprise. Perhaps we can chalk this up to New England's reversion to a run-first offense of eras past, as the Patriots finished eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game in 2021. That helped open things up for Bourne to make a difference at a variety of depths, posting the league's best catch rate over expected on passes of 10-plus air yards (+31.9 percent) while also gaining an NFL-leading 9.5 yards per target on passes of fewer than 10 air yards. Catch-and-run was the name of Bourne's game, as he tied for fourth in yards gained after catch over expected at +156.
Bourne isn't a name you expect to see on this kind of list, but the combination of his ability to make an impact at a number of depths, his run-after-catch threat and New England's unpredictability -- even with a rookie at quarterback -- all help explain Bourne's placement.
Rank
3
Tyler Lockett
Seattle Seahawks · Age 29
In the past, Lockett was a speedster who made an impact in the middle portion of the field (between the numbers). In 2021, that changed a bit. Lockett became a sideline stud, catching 13 boundary targets (less than 2 yards from the sideline) -- the most such receptions in the entire league. That total was the most in a single season for Lockett during the Next Gen Stats era (dating back to 2016), and stands as proof of skill progression for a receiver who already boasts the highest catch rate over expected on targets outside the numbers since 2018.
Considering Lockett set a new career high for receiving yards (1,175), it should come as no surprise that he landed on this list's podium. He remains a downfield threat, owning the most receptions (51) and receiving yards (1,790) on throws of 20-plus air yards since 2018. Defenses reacted accordingly in 2021, giving him plenty of cushion, but it didn't help much. Lockett caught 67.1 percent of his 73 receptions with cushion of 5 or more yards, and he finished sixth among all receivers and tight ends in completed air yards (886), accounting for 75.4 percent of his total receiving yards.
The inclusion of more perimeter targets is the defining shift in Lockett's overall receiving résumé. He ran corner routes at the highest percentage in the NFL (10 percent) -- and thanks in part to that aforementioned cushion, he averaged a route depth of 13.9 yards.
What we're seeing from Lockett is a receiver who has become a complete pass catcher capable of making a difference all over the field. Defenses are wise to give him space -- they just better cover it faster than they did in 2021. Lockett, meanwhile, will have to hope the Seahawks find a quality replacement for Russell Wilson.
Rank
2
Christian Kirk
Jacksonville Jaguars · Age 25
Two plays essentially defined Kirk's final season in Arizona, and they came in the first two weeks of the campaign. Lined up as a slot in a trips formation in Arizona's Week 1 trouncing of Tennessee, Kirk ran a fade route that eventually registered as a corner route (in Next Gen Stats' route-tracking database), thanks to Kirk using outside leverage against cornerback Kristian Fulton -- playing man coverage in a single-high safety look -- to his advantage. With six pass rushers bearing down on Kyler Murray, the quarterback lofted a pass to Kirk, who won the race toward the back corner of the end zone for a touchdown.
A week later, he did it again in the win over Minnesota, running a streak toward the middle of the field against another single-high look and leaving cornerback Mackensie Alexander in the dust, giving Murray an opportunity to deliver a pass with seven rushers closing in on him for a hugely important 35-yard gain on fourth-and-5.
That was Kirk's maximum value in Arizona. He was a slot receiver used predominantly downfield, running the fourth-deepest routes on average when aligned in the slot among all receivers (minimum 200 slot routes) while also finishing first in catch rate over expected (+11.8 percent), third in receiving expected points added (+40.6) and fourth in receptions (59) and receiving yards (722) out of the slot. He averaged 14.6 yards per target on passes of 10-plus air yards, including 11 yards per target versus press coverage.
It was all about attacking defenses with Kirk's speed from the slot in 2021. He'll attempt to do the same -- with a healthier bank account -- in his first season with the Jaguars.
Christian Kirk's top plays | 2021 season
Rank
1
Tee Higgins
Cincinnati Bengals · Age 23
We spent much of 2021 raving about the record-breaking debut season for Ja'Marr Chase, but the Bengals didn't get to the Super Bowl on the strength of the rookie alone. While Chase victimized defenders down the sideline, Higgins played an important role in the often-overlooked (but ever-important) intermediate portion of Cincinnati's passing attack.
Higgins' catch rate didn't land near the top of the league, but the most important metric in these rankings -- catch rate over expected -- separates him from the rest. As a receiver who operates in the most congested area of the field, Higgins consistently exceeded expectations, finishing with the sixth-most receiving yards (503) and fourth-most expected points added on intermediate targets. And in that traffic-filled region of the field, Higgins proved to be an ideal target to find open space, settle in and catch accurate passes for positive gains, with 73 percent of his total receiving yards coming via air yards (801).
All of this combined to help Higgins post the league's top catch rate over expected at +9.8 percent. It certainly helps to have Joe Burrow as your quarterback, but Higgins proved he's pretty darn good at playing the position, too.
Link:
5
Hunter Renfrow
Las Vegas Raiders · Age 26
- Catch rate: 80.5%
- xCatch: 71.7%
- CROE: +8.8%
The third-down master and route-running wizard stepped up in a big way for the Raiders in 2021, leading the team in receiving yards (1,038) despite averaging just 10.1 yards per reception.
What we already know about Renfrow shined through in the numbers: His sure hands made him an easy go-to target for Derek Carr, no matter where his routes originated, and the way he ran his routes made him a problem for defenses in almost every situation. Renfrow finished fourth in average target separation when aligned wide, racked up the sixth-most receiving yards (643) when aligned in the slot, and tied for 10th in receiving touchdowns caught outside the numbers (five).
When this guy lined up in a bunch formation, he was devastating. Renfrow ran 17 more routes than the next-closest player out of bunch sets, saw 11 more targets, caught 11 more passes and gained 49 more yards than the next-closest receiver. It's no surprise, then, that he led the NFL with four touchdowns on out routes, catching 23 of 29 targets for 195 yards.
No matter where he lined up, Renfrow was a tough cover and an easy target. He's not a burner and won't torch defenses downfield, but he'll make plenty of money with his skill set. Add in the sure hands and you have a top-five receiver at exceeding expectations.
Rank
4
Kendrick Bourne
New England Patriots · Age 26
- Catch rate: 78.6%
- xCatch: 69.6%
- CROE: +9%
Now here's a surprise. Perhaps we can chalk this up to New England's reversion to a run-first offense of eras past, as the Patriots finished eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game in 2021. That helped open things up for Bourne to make a difference at a variety of depths, posting the league's best catch rate over expected on passes of 10-plus air yards (+31.9 percent) while also gaining an NFL-leading 9.5 yards per target on passes of fewer than 10 air yards. Catch-and-run was the name of Bourne's game, as he tied for fourth in yards gained after catch over expected at +156.
Bourne isn't a name you expect to see on this kind of list, but the combination of his ability to make an impact at a number of depths, his run-after-catch threat and New England's unpredictability -- even with a rookie at quarterback -- all help explain Bourne's placement.
Rank
3
Tyler Lockett
Seattle Seahawks · Age 29
- Catch rate: 68.2%
- xCatch: 59%
- CROE: +9.2%
In the past, Lockett was a speedster who made an impact in the middle portion of the field (between the numbers). In 2021, that changed a bit. Lockett became a sideline stud, catching 13 boundary targets (less than 2 yards from the sideline) -- the most such receptions in the entire league. That total was the most in a single season for Lockett during the Next Gen Stats era (dating back to 2016), and stands as proof of skill progression for a receiver who already boasts the highest catch rate over expected on targets outside the numbers since 2018.
Considering Lockett set a new career high for receiving yards (1,175), it should come as no surprise that he landed on this list's podium. He remains a downfield threat, owning the most receptions (51) and receiving yards (1,790) on throws of 20-plus air yards since 2018. Defenses reacted accordingly in 2021, giving him plenty of cushion, but it didn't help much. Lockett caught 67.1 percent of his 73 receptions with cushion of 5 or more yards, and he finished sixth among all receivers and tight ends in completed air yards (886), accounting for 75.4 percent of his total receiving yards.
The inclusion of more perimeter targets is the defining shift in Lockett's overall receiving résumé. He ran corner routes at the highest percentage in the NFL (10 percent) -- and thanks in part to that aforementioned cushion, he averaged a route depth of 13.9 yards.
What we're seeing from Lockett is a receiver who has become a complete pass catcher capable of making a difference all over the field. Defenses are wise to give him space -- they just better cover it faster than they did in 2021. Lockett, meanwhile, will have to hope the Seahawks find a quality replacement for Russell Wilson.
Rank
2
Christian Kirk
Jacksonville Jaguars · Age 25
- Catch rate: 74.8%
- xCatch: 65.4%
- CROE: +9.4%
Two plays essentially defined Kirk's final season in Arizona, and they came in the first two weeks of the campaign. Lined up as a slot in a trips formation in Arizona's Week 1 trouncing of Tennessee, Kirk ran a fade route that eventually registered as a corner route (in Next Gen Stats' route-tracking database), thanks to Kirk using outside leverage against cornerback Kristian Fulton -- playing man coverage in a single-high safety look -- to his advantage. With six pass rushers bearing down on Kyler Murray, the quarterback lofted a pass to Kirk, who won the race toward the back corner of the end zone for a touchdown.
A week later, he did it again in the win over Minnesota, running a streak toward the middle of the field against another single-high look and leaving cornerback Mackensie Alexander in the dust, giving Murray an opportunity to deliver a pass with seven rushers closing in on him for a hugely important 35-yard gain on fourth-and-5.
That was Kirk's maximum value in Arizona. He was a slot receiver used predominantly downfield, running the fourth-deepest routes on average when aligned in the slot among all receivers (minimum 200 slot routes) while also finishing first in catch rate over expected (+11.8 percent), third in receiving expected points added (+40.6) and fourth in receptions (59) and receiving yards (722) out of the slot. He averaged 14.6 yards per target on passes of 10-plus air yards, including 11 yards per target versus press coverage.
It was all about attacking defenses with Kirk's speed from the slot in 2021. He'll attempt to do the same -- with a healthier bank account -- in his first season with the Jaguars.
Christian Kirk's top plays | 2021 season
Rank
1
Tee Higgins
Cincinnati Bengals · Age 23
- Catch rate: 67.3%
- xCatch: 57.5%
- CROE: +9.8%
We spent much of 2021 raving about the record-breaking debut season for Ja'Marr Chase, but the Bengals didn't get to the Super Bowl on the strength of the rookie alone. While Chase victimized defenders down the sideline, Higgins played an important role in the often-overlooked (but ever-important) intermediate portion of Cincinnati's passing attack.
Higgins' catch rate didn't land near the top of the league, but the most important metric in these rankings -- catch rate over expected -- separates him from the rest. As a receiver who operates in the most congested area of the field, Higgins consistently exceeded expectations, finishing with the sixth-most receiving yards (503) and fourth-most expected points added on intermediate targets. And in that traffic-filled region of the field, Higgins proved to be an ideal target to find open space, settle in and catch accurate passes for positive gains, with 73 percent of his total receiving yards coming via air yards (801).
All of this combined to help Higgins post the league's top catch rate over expected at +9.8 percent. It certainly helps to have Joe Burrow as your quarterback, but Higgins proved he's pretty darn good at playing the position, too.
Link:
