You have this flipped backwards. Why would anyone stick with China Joe with the level of ineptitude and failure he has displayed? Please chime in to disagree if you want.
I think that the people who voted for Biden have gotten more or less what they expected from him. Biden is, despite what the right wing rhetoric has been, a pretty mainstream, center leaning Democrat. And the policy stances he’s taken have mostly been in that lane.
I do think the Israel/Palestine conflict is an issue for Democrats as no matter which direction he goes Biden will alienate some of the Democratic voting base and for some of those voters, this issue is very, very high on their priority list.
However, the voters that are primarily swung by this issue are pro-Palestinian, and the Republicans certainly don’t offer much by way of support for Palestine. Many of these Democrats are more leftward leaning than Biden and already have disappointments with him, wanting him to be much more aggressive around student loan debt forgiveness and environmental issues at the least.
I suspect that Trump’s best path to victory is for some of these further left wing, pro-Palestinian voters to stay home particularly in states like Michigan where there is a higher than you’d think Islamic population. I do not think that these voters will swing for Trump.
Ultimately Trump, and not Biden, is the driving force of this election just as he was in 2020. People are voting based on how they feel about Trump and I just don’t think that people who didn’t want him in 2020 are going to want him in 2024. Trump has only gone further down the authoritarian rabbit hole and has reinforced for a lot of people the reasons they didn’t vote for him in 2020.
I think its pretty clear that there are very few who are going out and voting because they are excited about Biden, but lots and lots of people will vote against Trump, who is viewed as an existential threat to the republic. Even those far left Democratic votes that feel abandoned by Biden will turn out to vote because they wholly understand that Trump is a far worse alternative for them.
I simply do not see massive swings in the voting totals in either direction. The people who didn’t like Trump in 2020 still don’t like him and the people who didn’t like Biden in 2020 still don’t like him. Georgia and Arizona’s margin of victory for Biden was razor thin so it wouldn’t take a big swing for Trump to get those back, but that wouldn’t be enough to get to 270. The only state I could see Biden potentially flipping would be NC.
The other interesting question is about voter migration. Florida and Ohio, IMO, are no longer “swing states” and are pretty firmly red. Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada are pretty strongly blue. States like Georgia, Arizona, and Texas are slowly turning more and more purple, though Texas is still a ways off from going Dem I believe. This election will be decided in Wisonsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. Trump needs to flip at least 3 of those, maybe 4. Not impossible, but that’s an uphill battle for him.