1st Election Projection to be released today.
- Thread starter GoodWord28
- Start date
The republican base that turns out in the primary is a far different demographic from voters in the general election. Vastly different size as well.
Who had a better chance than Trump? He's already had more votes than Romney had, and those votes were split among 4-6 people the majority of the primaries.
I voted for Kasich, but nobody voted for Kasich. He doesn't have the name or charisma. Hillary would've beaten him soundly. Cruz? No chance America would vote for Cruz in a general.
If Hillary wins, which she most likely will, I don't see a Republican ever winning again until major crisis or war occurs.
Doesn't really work like that. About 40% of blacks in SC will vote. Which brings us to 10% of the black population that will vote. Hillary still has 40% to go.
Barry had 44% in each of the last two SC elections. Hillary would have to flip a ton of folks that have voted red their entire life. Not gonna happen. I'm also inclined to believe that there are many folks in SC that are buying the rhetoric.
I agree that the Republicans won't see the white house for a while. Not until their positions get with the program and stop alienating the new majority of the US.
polls and projections are absolutely useless at this point
we havent even gotten to the convention
lets wait til we are a few weeks into the season
preseason polls just like in football are useless
the emotional anger of americans dissects the entire spectrum
political pundits and policy wanks are in for an eye opening experience to what main street has been trying to get across to wall street for the las decade
its time to bring common sense back to government and rid ourselves of these self righteous know it alls that continually talk down to the populace
we havent even gotten to the convention
lets wait til we are a few weeks into the season
preseason polls just like in football are useless
the emotional anger of americans dissects the entire spectrum
political pundits and policy wanks are in for an eye opening experience to what main street has been trying to get across to wall street for the las decade
its time to bring common sense back to government and rid ourselves of these self righteous know it alls that continually talk down to the populace
R's complaining about losing to Hillary are funny. You've just begun to see who the real Donald Trump is. (That's funny considering his twitter handle) He will be so close to HRC on policy by the time November rolls around, R's will be kicking themselves in the nuts every morning when they get up. Trump sold a bunch of idiots that he was different and was going to change things, shake things up he said. When in reality, he was just like those he was criticizing, saying exactly what he knew the idiots wanted to hear, when he knew they wanted to hear it. He may be new to the game, but he's played by the same playbook as everyone else always has. As he's gotten farther away from the R primary and true conservatives he's spoken less about the need for a wall and more about raising min wage and taxes. It's only the beginning.
I see Hillary dropping like a rock. She let a nobody senator beat her 8 years and she struggling with a 100 year old socialist.
Trump will ground and pound Hill dawg. She is a horrible campaigner.
America will be great again...
Trump will ground and pound Hill dawg. She is a horrible campaigner.
America will be great again...
Good question considering Republicans originally fought for their freedom
Once again, tell me the blue states that Trump will turn red? And why?
Trump gonna need some upsets. Show me the math. In your mind show me which state turns from historical voting patterns.
I am as Republican as anyone, but also understands the math of the electoral college. Trump aint winning
I think there's certainly some amount of racial aspect to this. Historically, the GOP has some skeletons in the closet (see "Southern Strategy"). Of course, this will open up the TI flood gate on whether it's accurate or not.
But, I think there's more to it at play. The cross-section you're asking about are not only characterized by the color of their skin. Nationwide, African Americans are well below the median income marker. So, perhaps a more appropriate question to ask is- why do lower-income people vote democrat? That answer seems more obvious.
The election math is against Trump. Even if Trump wins ever state that Romney won plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada that still only gets Trump to 265. He would then need to win VA, WI, CO or PA to win. It is an extremely uphill battle for a candidate that is historically disliked.
At least Hillary is also historically disliked second only to Trump.
It just seems like an incredible uphill battle. People have been sleeping on Trump, but that is among Republican voters not Democratic voters. Trump would need historic turnout on his behalf and low turnout on Hillary's behalf and that seems far fetched considering how many people dislike Trump and will likely vote to vote against him.
At least Hillary is also historically disliked second only to Trump.
It just seems like an incredible uphill battle. People have been sleeping on Trump, but that is among Republican voters not Democratic voters. Trump would need historic turnout on his behalf and low turnout on Hillary's behalf and that seems far fetched considering how many people dislike Trump and will likely vote to vote against him.
I heard something on Wallbuilders one time about what the Dems used to do to the Black people, and it was very hard to listen to. I couldn't believe it. It was seriously some of the worse things I've ever heard. I sat there driving and wondering why I was 31 years old before I heard that, and it's never covered. I mean, it would make you cringe. Can't believe that any political party would do that. Very, very sad.
It amazing, but that "nobody senator" currently leads Trump by 13 points. That is much better than HRC. Don't understand it, but this has been consistent with many polls over several months. Many Reds are hoping that Hillary is indicted. That will put the election in the hands of the blues. Bernie will get more millennial votes and there is always a chance that Biden would get the nod which would be unbeatable against Trump.
What is lost on a lot of people is that a proverbial yellow dog running as a Democrat would be favored these days in a presidential election against any Republican. To coin a phrase, "it's the electoral college, stupid." As others have noted above, megastates such as California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Illinois are now Democratic mainstays.
No reason for a Republican candidate - no matter who s/he is - to waste a nickel campaigning in those states. Now the majority of our 50 states will be Republican Red no matter who is the GOP candidate. Unfortunately for Republicans, it takes a lot of Utahs and Idahos to equal one New York or California.
In presidential years, the GOP is now behind the 8-ball. With Trump, it will be worse. Far worse. Even states like Georgia and NC may tilt to the Democrats. (Virginia will definitely go to Clinton. Northern Va., where voter turnout (and income and education levels) is highest in the state, will be overwhelmingly Clinton country against Trump.) No matter what the polls say today, SC will go to the GOP and Clinton won't spend a dime there campaigning in the general election.
The GOP will get its hopes up 2 years later when fewer voters go to the polls and likely return the Senate to GOP control (and the House, too, should it actually flip in 2016). Far fewer voters go to the polls in off-presidential years and, after 10 consecutive years of a Dem in the White House, the voters will be more apt to vote Republican. But until the GOP can begin to make headway with Hispanic voters (they won't get far with African American voters in the near term), the White House will remain out of reach.
No reason for a Republican candidate - no matter who s/he is - to waste a nickel campaigning in those states. Now the majority of our 50 states will be Republican Red no matter who is the GOP candidate. Unfortunately for Republicans, it takes a lot of Utahs and Idahos to equal one New York or California.
In presidential years, the GOP is now behind the 8-ball. With Trump, it will be worse. Far worse. Even states like Georgia and NC may tilt to the Democrats. (Virginia will definitely go to Clinton. Northern Va., where voter turnout (and income and education levels) is highest in the state, will be overwhelmingly Clinton country against Trump.) No matter what the polls say today, SC will go to the GOP and Clinton won't spend a dime there campaigning in the general election.
The GOP will get its hopes up 2 years later when fewer voters go to the polls and likely return the Senate to GOP control (and the House, too, should it actually flip in 2016). Far fewer voters go to the polls in off-presidential years and, after 10 consecutive years of a Dem in the White House, the voters will be more apt to vote Republican. But until the GOP can begin to make headway with Hispanic voters (they won't get far with African American voters in the near term), the White House will remain out of reach.
Beautiful post. Spot on. Well crafted. Wish there was a love button.
LOL the new majority???? Those that want grown men in a bathroom with our daughters? That's the democrats for ya
The election math is against Trump. Even if Trump wins ever state that Romney won plus Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada that still only gets Trump to 265. He would then need to win VA, WI, CO or PA to win. It is an extremely uphill battle for a candidate that is historically disliked.
At least Hillary is also historically disliked second only to Trump.
It just seems like an incredible uphill battle. People have been sleeping on Trump, but that is among Republican voters not Democratic voters. Trump would need historic turnout on his behalf and low turnout on Hillary's behalf and that seems far fetched considering how many people dislike Trump and will likely vote to vote against him.
Funny fact, those most disliked in the past election won...
I'm no Trump supporter, but recent history suggests this is an effective strategy.
I love your enthusiasm. Really do. Let me make it clear I detest democrats and just about any policy they produce.
That being said.......
Pointless to keep pointing out the math to you, and others. Its just not gonna happen. Problem with polls is they are such a tiny sample size, in states with millions of people.
Polls try to predict the future, when it is much easier to use history as a judge as to how states fall.
Unless there have been demographic changes, economic issues, or social issues, states just dont change without reason.
Trump is double digits behind in Fla. Without Fla he has no path. NONE. NADA. It cannot happen.
Math. Math. Math. All it is, all it ever will be.
The
They just want their candidate to win. I don't think they actually follow the electorate math. If they did, well, they'd understand how Trump has no path. And it isn't debatable.
When it happens, please leave this board, Deal?
Edit: I'll leave if i'm wrong. But you must promise to never post here again with your retarded views when I'm (right).
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