Are we in the 2nd wave now?

[DaTater]

Was reading something the other day, sorry, I’ll try to find it again, and the writer brought up some good points. With antibody tests showing signs of more people affected and some places saying there could have been cases earlier, could this be the 2nd wave hitting now?

I’m not sure, but just thought it was an interesting take.

 

[nashvegastiger]

Nashville opened its economy on Monday following the rest of the state that opened two weeks earlier. There were protests from the expert medical community crying “too soon we will start a 2nd surge”. We had stabilized to 90-100 new cases a week when the mayor finally opened with rest of the state.

Four days in....Mayor reported 10 new cases in Nashville today.

14 day average is declining in Florida and Georgia as well who have been open 3+ weeks.

Quit buying the 2nd surge BS.

There can’t be a 2nd surge in a place that never had a 1st surge.

We will see small spikes in cases here and there as testing increases but 97% of cases are mild or asymptomatic in states that have robust testing.

We have less than 275 people in the hospital statewide in a state of 7 million. We 0 in my county of 250K people and less than 50 in Nashville in a county of 700K.

SC is about the same as TN but has had fewer tests administered. As testing goes up cases will rose but actual people getting sick and the infection rate will go down.

Younger healthier people are not being hospitalized or dying in big numbers from Covid 19. We have enough data to know that. Carry on.

 

[cgoligh]

Agree do not think this is the second wave. What you are seeing is the virus making its way further into the south and out of the top major US cities. For example my hospital had stayed at 3-15 cases for a long time, now we are getting up to the 30s and peaking at times in the 40s. Numbers dipped for a bit a couple weeks ago. We have the full gambit from 18 yo to 80s yo. So no one is immune to this thing, and nobody is saying any particular age group is immune. We have seen an uptick in utilization of resources, although are manageable at this time. fortunately with the social distancing we have had time to come up with a number of contingency plans to help allocate resources IF or when the time comes.

Many cases are mild I agree. All I ask is don't be stupid, be helpful to your community and look out for more than just yourself.

And talk to your family about goals of care. i.e. if they get go into respiratory distress, or multiorgan failure..do they want a breathing machine, do they want a tracheostomy after 2 weeks if cant come off the ventilator, do they want CPR or shocks to restart the heart, do they want a feeding tube in the abdomen, do they want dialysis..

Because these questions get asked at 3 AM, and to family members who have a big blank stare when medical staff come to them for the answers. These are good conversations to have with anyone in your family with the mental ability to understand the weight of these decisions. It just has come to the forefront a bit more now with a disease that does not have any sign of a cure other than supportive care.

 

[Esso13]

With rising temperatures in the southeast coming our second wave will not be as noticeable as other parts in the country .

 

[nmerritt11]

Let’s see a surge where testing numbers are accurate and in states that don’t have an agenda. There wasn’t a first wave in most states

 

[clemsonfan2]

Second wave = more people who think a bandana sterilizes air.

 

[actigerman]

Let’s see a surge where testing numbers are accurate and in states that don’t have an agenda. There wasn’t a first wave in most states

Yes, I noticed that the 12 states with the highest mortality rates are all controlled by democratic governors. Coincidence?

 

[tigerworx]

Let’s see a surge where testing numbers are accurate and in states that don’t have an agenda. There wasn’t a first wave in most states

No hock, Sherlock.

The numbers that are 'slipping' out prove that there was and is an agenda. Somewhere.

Flatten the curve......stay home. OK, we did (most of y'all - thank you)
Now: Wait we have to have a cure. Or, we have to have a vaccine. Or, we have to have everyone tested.

Typical responses.
Keep moving the goal posts.

We've never cured the Flu....much less Cancer.
How's the Flu vaccine working? Essentially the same number as Covid.. MORE or LESS...die every year.
Testing.
What a joke about testing. I've said it many times.
SO, you don't have it NOW, but you were exposed several hours ago, and are now a 'carrier' and will be spreading it all over before you realize you have it.
Great.
Testing saved WHO?

Get back with life. Be careful, especially if you or loved ones have risks.

Life.
Must.
Move.
On.

 

[clempzenbill]

No hock, Sherlock.

The numbers that are 'slipping' out prove that there was and is an agenda. Somewhere.

Flatten the curve......stay home. OK, we did (most of y'all - thank you)
Now: Wait we have to have a cure. Or, we have to have a vaccine. Or, we have to have everyone tested.

Typical responses.
Keep moving the goal posts.

We've never cured the Flu....much less Cancer.
How's the Flu vaccine working? Essentially the same number as Covid.. MORE or LESS...die every year.
Testing.
What a joke about testing. I've said it many times.
SO, you don't have it NOW, but you were exposed several hours ago, and are now a 'carrier' and will be spreading it all over before you realize you have it.
Great.
Testing saved WHO?

Get back with life. Be careful, especially if you or loved ones have risks.

Life.
Must.
Move.
On.

Yup viruses mutate and this one already has several strains. No guarantee a vaccine will work against all of them and I’d bet it won’t.
There really is something beneath the surface going on here. I figured this out two months ago looking at the info coming out of Europe. It was quite obvious the vast majority of deaths were very old very sick people. Comparing it to this flu season, its also obvious this isn’t anywhere near as contagious as influenza. Not even close, when you compare number of cases over the same length of time. There were 32-41 MILLION illnesses this flu season. We just crossed 1.5 million cases and most weren’t illnesses for Covid in the same length of time. Mind boggling, our leaders are either really dumb or corrupt and probably both.
For the life of me I would have laughed in someone’s face if they had predicted this level of panic and ineptitude to the point where we’re literally burning down the whole village to save one house

 

[tigerworx]

Yup viruses mutate and this one already has several strains. No guarantee a vaccine will work against all of them and I’d bet it won’t.
There really is something beneath the surface going on here. I figured this out two months ago looking at the info coming out of Europe. It was quite obvious the vast majority of deaths were very old very sick people. Comparing it to this flu season, its also obvious this isn’t anywhere near as contagious as influenza. Not even close, when you compare number of cases over the same length of time. There were 32-41 MILLION illnesses this flu season. We just crossed 1.5 million cases and most weren’t illnesses for Covid in the same length of time. Mind boggling, our leaders are either really dumb or corrupt and probably both.
For the life of me I would have laughed in someone’s face if they had predicted this level of panic and ineptitude to the point where we’re literally burning down the whole village to save one house

I think it is an either/or, multiple choice answer.

I'm not gonna start a poll........but I have my answer.

 

[treetiger]

Yea, I think he'll chose the 2nd biggest wave next time...

 

[dbjork6317]

Nashville opened its economy on Monday following the rest of the state that opened two weeks earlier. There were protests from the expert medical community crying “too soon we will start a 2nd surge”. We had stabilized to 90-100 new cases a week when the mayor finally opened with rest of the state.

Four days in....Mayor reported 10 new cases in Nashville today.

14 day average is declining in Florida and Georgia as well who have been open 3+ weeks.

Quit buying the 2nd surge BS.

There can’t be a 2nd surge in a place that never had a 1st surge.

We will see small spikes in cases here and there as testing increases but 97% of cases are mild or asymptomatic in states that have robust testing.

We have less than 275 people in the hospital statewide in a state of 7 million. We 0 in my county of 250K people and less than 50 in Nashville in a county of 700K.

SC is about the same as TN but has had fewer tests administered. As testing goes up cases will rose but actual people getting sick and the infection rate will go down.

Younger healthier people are not being hospitalized or dying in big numbers from Covid 19. We have enough data to know that. Carry on.

Cases increasing here in TX. 1,000+ per day for the last 5 days. Only 2 1,000+ days in all of April. Does coincide with increased testing, of course.

 

[BAnksMcFadden]

Does it matter? Move on with our lives. This is ridiculous they're waiting for a vaccine. In our entire life tines (I'm 32) we've come out with 3 vaccines. Couple that with the fact that 85% of Americans don't take the flu vaccine and we are jus looking for a reason to be fat and lazy

 

[Go_Tigrz1]

The timing and rules for a return to normal, or re-opening the economy, is a Risk Management problem. Really surprised more leaders don’t use that term. There is no such thing as 100% safe. There is no such thing as being certain no one else will ever get sick or die from COVID-19.

But know this: You cannot control what you cannot measure. That’s just a fact. And if your metric for measuring COVID-19 spread is how many people go to a hospital sick, that’s a lagging indicator and you’re always 2 weeks behind the problem. You measure with widespread, reliable testing. That will enable intelligently managing a relaxation of restrictions to achieve some new normal.

Notice I said a NEW normal. Not the old normal. Testing alone cannot get you there.

Life will not, cannot, return to our previous version of normal until there is a vaccine. No reputable medical or scientific expert has said this will ‘just go away’. They’ve said the opposite. Polio didn’t ‘just go away’, nor did Yellow Fever, nor SmallPox, etc. If social behaviors return to the previous version of normal without a vaccine, death rates will not be the previous normal. Work force absentee rates will not be normal. And so on. And so on. It’s impossible to return previous normal without an effective vaccine.

 

[Pvilletigerfan]

Just a bad flu right guys? Not even as bad as the flu. Over 80,000 dead in right around 2 months. Just a bad flu.

 

[Koeman15]

Just a bad flu right guys? Not even as bad as the flu. Over 80,000 dead in right around 2 months. Just a bad flu.

I don't want to get dark, but you're going die some day. You'll probably be alone. You'll certainly have regrets. Even then, you may still think that it matters in some way, but it won't. Because 55 million other people will have died that same year. The difference is most of them probably weren't dramatic queens about it.

 

[The Orange Wave]

Just a bad flu right guys? Not even as bad as the flu. Over 80,000 dead in right around 2 months. Just a bad flu.

It’s worse than the flu in some ways when you consider the severity in elderly and others at high risk, but no more deadly for the vast majority. With 40% of the deaths in nursing homes just think of how many lives could have been saved if Cuomo has not sent all those sick people back to nursing homes and utilized that big empty ship he was sent.

I was all for the initial lockdown to get testing up and hospitals caught up, but with 30m people unemployed and unintended health consequences from people locked down I think it is time to get moving and hope for the best.

 

[Tiger1425]

I agree we need to start opening things back up. I think people should wear a mask to help protect others. This is worse than the flu. We will reach 100,000+ dead. just as I predicted months ago. No, the second wave has not hit yet. I hope the hospitals are more prepared because that is why we locked down. Just because I am old it doesn't mean I enjoy being locked in the house doing nothing all day. I think that covers all my opinions for today. Oh, yeah. I hope we have football and pro tennis by fall.

 

[clempzenbill]

The timing and rules for a return to normal, or re-opening the economy, is a Risk Management problem. Really surprised more leaders don’t use that term. There is no such thing as 100% safe. There is no such thing as being certain no one else will ever get sick or die from COVID-19.

But know this: You cannot control what you cannot measure. That’s just a fact. And if your metric for measuring COVID-19 spread is how many people go to a hospital sick, that’s a lagging indicator and you’re always 2 weeks behind the problem. You measure with widespread, reliable testing. That will enable intelligently managing a relaxation of restrictions to achieve some new normal.

Notice I said a NEW normal. Not the old normal. Testing alone cannot get you there.

Life will not, cannot, return to our previous version of normal until there is a vaccine. No reputable medical or scientific expert has said this will ‘just go away’. They’ve said the opposite. Polio didn’t ‘just go away’, nor did Yellow Fever, nor SmallPox, etc. If social behaviors return to the previous version of normal without a vaccine, death rates will not be the previous normal. Work force absentee rates will not be normal. And so on. And so on. It’s impossible to return previous normal without an effective vaccine.

Like the vaccine for all the strains of influenza? Like the vaccine that covers all the strains of common cold? There isn’t any and this virus is mutating just like all those other viruses. Without a significant medical breakthrough there will be no all encompassing vaccine.
As for normal we know who predominantly gets sick and dies from this. They are very old very sick people and younger people who are also very sick with two or more comorbidity conditions.They are a small percentage of the population. Shelter and isolate THEM so the rest of us can get back to work to support them. Otherwise there won’t be an economy to recover
Most of our leaders seem bent on burning down the village to save one house.
We’re presently casting the world into a massive depression that will cost far more lives than the virus. I doubt most people ever think for even a moment about the effect of a global depression on all the poor third world and developing countries. The end result could be catastrophic for them.
We have to get back to work.
The economy IS food, shelter, health care and humanitarian aid for the whole world.
We are the engine of the worlds economy. It follows what our does.

 

[tiger1995]

Just a bad flu right guys? Not even as bad as the flu. Over 80,000 dead in right around 2 months. Just a bad flu.

...and apparently we found a cure for pneumonia and influenza bc those numbers have decreased significantly since covid joined the party.

 

[undertheradar]

Yes, I noticed that the 12 states with the highest mortality rates are all controlled by democratic governors. Coincidence?

Or maybe it's because they're mostly all close to NY... California arguably has a bigger "agenda" than everybody and their numbers have been great.

 

[undertheradar]

...and apparently we found a cure for pneumonia and influenza bc those numbers have decreased significantly since covid joined the party.

This source is still counting about 500 deaths per week due to flu. Maybe a little lower than the average year? It's not like they've disappeared though. I think the CDC usually looks back at the numbers at the end of the year makes pretty substantial increases based on some modeling.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

And before anybody mentions how low the counts for the most recent couple weeks are so low like I saw all over Facebook and in one thread on this site a week or two ago, those numbers are provisional and will go up as the data is confirmed.

 

[Da Swami]

Yup viruses mutate and this one already has several strains. No guarantee a vaccine will work against all of them and I’d bet it won’t.
There really is something beneath the surface going on here. I figured this out two months ago looking at the info coming out of Europe. It was quite obvious the vast majority of deaths were very old very sick people. Comparing it to this flu season, its also obvious this isn’t anywhere near as contagious as influenza. Not even close, when you compare number of cases over the same length of time. There were 32-41 MILLION illnesses this flu season. We just crossed 1.5 million cases and most weren’t illnesses for Covid in the same length of time. Mind boggling, our leaders are either really dumb or corrupt and probably both.
For the life of me I would have laughed in someone’s face if they had predicted this level of panic and ineptitude to the point where we’re literally burning down the whole village to save one house

Confirm flu cases in the last 6 years in the United States have ranged from 3500 to 15500. Influenza numbers that have been cited are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

 

[nashvegastiger]

Cases increasing here in TX. 1,000+ per day for the last 5 days. Only 2 1,000+ days in all of April. Does coincide with increased testing, of course.

If you test more you will find more. Is the % positive moving down as you test less sick people? % positive should move down.

Are hospitalizations increasing? ICU bed utilization?

Those are the critical numbers to follow.

As we test less sick people we are seeing mostly asymptomatic cases in TN. I expect the same is true in Texas.

 

[tigrbybirth]

Yes, I noticed that the 12 states with the highest mortality rates are all controlled by democratic governors. Coincidence?

Could it be that poorer Americans are at greater risk and poor people are more likely to vote Democratic? It also might be that the virus spreads more easily in urban areas, which also tend to be more Democratic. The question is causation vs correlation.

 

[Tiger1425]

I have to admit that this is the first political illness I have encountered. "Mr. Jones, I regret to inform you that you have Republican cancer.." "Hmm. What is Republican cancer?" "Well, it is just like regular cancer except it comes without any health insurance." "But, I had health insurance until I lost my job because of that Democratic virus."

 

[undertheradar]

Could it be that poorer Americans are at greater risk and poor people are more likely to vote Democratic? It also might be that the virus spreads more easily in urban areas, which also tend to be more Democratic. The question is causation vs correlation.

I think you're spot-on with the urban areas (see New York and surrounding area, Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago). It also seems to affect poorer people more b/c of lack of access to healthcare and worse overall health.

I don't get the political leap though. Most of the hardest hit states are in the northeast which are some of the wealthiest states in the nation. Wealthier states with higher human development scores tend to overwhelmingly vote democrat.

 

[nala2983]

No clue but I hit at least a couple waves yesterday at the beach in Georgia

 

[kgwillison]

I don't want to get dark, but you're going die some day. You'll probably be alone. You'll certainly have regrets. Even then, you may still think that it matters in some way, but it won't. Because 55 million other people will have died that same year. The difference is most of them probably weren't dramatic queens about it.

Hope you aren’t a doctor. That would be some bedside manner.

Sure, we are all going to die. Tell your opinion to parents of children who have died from this virus. Or widows of policemen and firemen taken in the prime of their lives. Or wives and husbands of doctors who died after trying to save other people with COVID.

 

[Koeman15]

Hope you aren’t a doctor. That would be some bedside manner.

Sure, we are all going to die. Tell your opinion to parents of children who have died from this virus. Or widows of policemen and firemen taken in the prime of their lives. Or wives and husbands of doctors who died after trying to save other people with COVID.

Happy too. Right after you tell your opinion to the 36 million people who've lost the ability to feed their kids, pay their rent, or earn a living.

Have you even taken one look at the numbers for how many people are going to starve globally because of the economic side of this? It dwarfs the current number of deaths by millions.

Millions.

 

[kgwillison]

Happy too. Right after you tell your opinion to the 36 million people who've lost the ability to feed their kids, pay their rent, or earn a living.

Have you even taken one look at the numbers for how many people are going to starve globally because of the economic side of this? It dwarfs the current number of deaths by millions.

Millions.

This is difficult from an economic standpoint. But do you think magically ‘reopening’ is going to send everyone flying to Orlando to go to DisneyWorld? Nope. Won’t happen until Americans are comfortable being packed together again. Caution is not just the word used by doctors. I haven’t spoken to a single person pining to sit on a crowded airplane or in a packed movie theater. And that is no one’s fault.

 

[DI Tiger]

This is difficult from an economic standpoint. But do you think magically ‘reopening’ is going to send everyone flying to Orlando to go to DisneyWorld? Nope. Won’t happen until Americans are comfortable being packed together again. Caution is not just the word used by doctors. I haven’t spoken to a single person pining to sit on a crowded airplane or in a packed movie theater. And that is no one’s fault.

I have purchased airline tickets for a trip this summer. Here in Charleston, you need a reservation to dine outdoors or indoors, and the reservations are hard to get. Just because you want to remain encased in your liberal Lysol spraying bubblewrap, that does not stop the rest of us from going about life taking sensible precautions.

 

[letsgocu]

This is difficult from an economic standpoint. But do you think magically ‘reopening’ is going to send everyone flying to Orlando to go to DisneyWorld? Nope. Won’t happen until Americans are comfortable being packed together again. Caution is not just the word used by doctors. I haven’t spoken to a single person pining to sit on a crowded airplane or in a packed movie theater. And that is no one’s fault.

Got a trip planned to both Puerto Rico and Maya Riviera.

 

[tigdad]

I think you're spot-on with the urban areas (see New York and surrounding area, Detroit, New Orleans, Chicago). It also seems to affect poorer people more b/c of lack of access to healthcare and worse overall health.

I don't get the political leap though. Most of the hardest hit states are in the northeast which are some of the wealthiest states in the nation. Wealthier states with higher human development scores tend to overwhelmingly vote democrat.

Ha, I've never heard of "human development scores", that's hilarious. I can just imagine what some left wing academics decided were indicators of human development.

 

[Trading Tiger]

Or maybe it's because they're mostly all close to NY... California arguably has a bigger "agenda" than everybody and their numbers have been great.

China has great numbers too, of course, you'd have to be an idiot to believe their numbers.

 

[kgwillison]

I have purchased airline tickets for a trip this summer. Here in Charleston, you need a reservation to dine outdoors or indoors, and the reservations are hard to get. Just because you want to remain encased in your liberal Lysol spraying bubblewrap, that does not stop the rest of us from going about life taking sensible precautions.

Encased? No. Just got home from a volunteer shift at the Capital Area Food Bank. Of course, I wore a mask and gloves. And socially distanced. Not so much because I fear getting the virus but for the protection of others. Is that liberal or just being considerate? Or are they the same thing nowadays? (Hope not.). As for Lysol, I think Trump injects it every morning.

 

[Trading Tiger]

Just a bad flu right guys? Not even as bad as the flu. Over 80,000 dead in right around 2 months. Just a bad flu.

LOL. I'd bet the real number is closer to half that figure. It's certainly not the body count of, say...cancer, but if we all just keep our eyes and ears shut, and hold our breath as Covid-19 is listed as the cause of death for people who die in automobile accidents, we can get there one day. Stay afraid my friend.

 

[DI Tiger]

Encased? No. Just got home from a volunteer shift at the Capital Area Food Bank. Of course, I wore a mask and gloves. And socially distanced. Not so much because I fear getting the virus but for the protection of others. Is that liberal or just being considerate? Or are they the same thing nowadays? (Hope not.). As for Lysol, I think Trump injects it every morning.

I wear a mask when I go inside a store. Considerate of others and their space. Use hand sanitizer religiously. Ready to resume life taking sensible precautions. Don't care for Trump, he should keep his mouth shut and shut down his Twitter feed. Also don't care for liberal blue state governors who want to protract the shutdown as long as possible, or November 5.

 

[undertheradar]

Ha, I've never heard of "human development scores", that's hilarious. I can just imagine what some left wing academics decided were indicators of human development.

Would median income be easier for you to understand? They're much higher in primarily Democrat States also. I've voted Republican Republican my whole life but it's just a fact. There may be more homeless people in Democrat states with large Urban centers, but there's no denying they're wealthier on average.

 

[firegiver]

Was reading something the other day, sorry, I’ll try to find it again, and the writer brought up some good points. With antibody tests showing signs of more people affected and some places saying there could have been cases earlier, could this be the 2nd wave hitting now?

I’m not sure, but just thought it was an interesting take.

The results of antibody tests in NC have shown that basically no one here has been exposed. So no.