Blockbuster US jobs report surpasses all expectations

[fatpiggy]

since when is the fed cutting rates? Literally from this morning on WSJ:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/wall-street-fed-rate-cuts-f6c154d7?mod=hp_lead_pos1

"Doubts creep in about a fed rate cut this year"

The Fed predicted 4 rate cuts this year.

There was as high as an 85% chance, as determined by the interest rate markets, of a cut in June. That has moved to 50-50.

If the economy is doing so well, as the thread title suggests, why is the fed forecasting rate cuts? Just jawboning?

 

[deshaunwatson4]

The Fed predicted 4 rate cuts this year.

There was as high as an 85% chance, as determined by the interest rate markets, of a cut in June. That has moved to 50-50.

If the economy is doing so well, as the thread title suggests, why is the fed forecasting rate cuts? Just jawboning?

sorry that is one of the dumbest questions I've ever heard. If I have to explain to you why the Fed might be wanting to cut rates soon, I assume you have not been paying any attention to anything over the last 3 years

 

[fatpiggy]

sorry that is one of the dumbest questions I've ever heard. If I have to explain to you why the Fed might be wanting to cut rates soon, I assume you have not been paying any attention to anything over the last 3 years

I've been paying attention to the inflation rate. And I have been paying attention to the White House claiming that the economy is strong as parroted in the title of this thread.

Now enlighten me, if the inflation rate is going up, and the economy is strong, what is the reason to cut rates. I'll hang up and listen. Please explain it to me like im 10 years old.

And since @yoshi121374 and @WapPride pride liked the post i welcome their explanation also.

 

[deshaunwatson4]

I've been paying attention to the inflation rate. And I have been paying attention to the White House claiming that the economy is strong as parroted in the title of this thread.

Now enlighten me, if the inflation rate is going up, and the economy is strong, what is the reason to cut rates. I'll hang up and listen. Please explain it to me like im 10 years old.

And since @yoshi121374 and @WapPride pride liked the post i welcome their explanation also.

you don't only cut rates to boost the economy. You do it proactively to not stymy the economy. Rates this high aren't sustainable forever, so you carefully choose the right time to bring them down and correct back to a more normal rate environment

The economy is really strong right now, but if it falters (which it will, economies always do), you don't want to be in a position where you are retroactively cutting rates to try and boost the economy. Rather, you would prefer to proactively address and slowly but steadily get rates back down to a more sustainable level

Really not that difficult but if you're gonna make me explain it, then sure

 

[WapPride]

I'll like any post calling you an idiot, because you are one.

 

[fatpiggy]

you don't only cut rates to boost the economy. You do it proactively to not stymy the economy. Rates this high aren't sustainable forever, so you carefully choose the right time to bring them down and correct back to a more normal rate environment

The economy is really strong right now, but if it falters (which it will, economies always do), you don't want to be in a position where you are retroactively cutting rates to try and boost the economy. Rather, you would prefer to proactively address and slowly but steadily get rates back down to a more sustainable level

Really not that difficult but if you're gonna make me explain it, then sure

So you want to proactively cut rates to stimulate the economy even when the inflation rate is well over a percentage point higher than it's stated goal? That is a bold strategy cotton. You would be straight stealing from future generations. (And why BTC is trading at record high of $72k today)

Inflation is stealing from future generations. It is not sustainable at these levels. And we all know that real inflation is much higher than 3%. The categories that mean the most to people, housing and food, have much higher than 2% inflation.

I think it would be a yuge mistake to cut rates before inflation shows signs it is heading back to 2%. As it is, the CPI reports have ticked higher the last two readings. Pay attention for Wednesday morning report. How much longer can we kick the can?

 

[deshaunwatson4]

So you want to proactively cut rates to stimulate the economy even when the inflation rate is well over a percentage point higher than it's stated goal? That is a bold strategy cotton. You would be straight stealing from future generations. (And why BTC is trading at record high of $72k today)

Inflation is stealing from future generations. It is not sustainable at these levels. And we all know that real inflation is much higher than 3%. The categories that mean the most to people, housing and food, have much higher than 2% inflation.

I think it would be a yuge mistake to cut rates before inflation shows signs it is heading back to 2%. As it is, the CPI reports have ticked higher the last two readings. Pay attention for Wednesday morning report. How much longer can we kick the can?

when did I ever say I want to cut rates? It is also not to stimulate the economy. Did you read anything that I wrote?

 

[fatpiggy]

when did I ever say I want to cut rates? It is also not to stimulate the economy. Did you read anything that I wrote?

So you think cutting rates is appropriate when inflation is rising and the economy is strong, but anticpate that the economy is really not as strong as everyone thinks and therefore cutting rates is appropriate? What exactly are you saying?

 

[fatpiggy]

 

[dpic73]

View embedded media

Guess good 'ol boy LibertyLockPod told us!

 

[fatpiggy]

Guess good 'ol boy LibertyLockPod told us!

 

[deshaunwatson4]

So you think cutting rates is appropriate when inflation is rising and the economy is strong, but anticpate that the economy is really not as strong as everyone thinks and therefore cutting rates is appropriate? What exactly are you saying?

Inflation isn't rising. WTF are you talking about - nobody knows

 

[TigerGrowls]

Inflation isn't rising. WTF are you talking about - nobody knows

WTF are you talking about? Inflation is out of control compared to January 2021 when the China Joe occupation started.

 

[fatpiggy]

Inflation isn't rising. WTF are you talking about - nobody knows

I’m talking about the last two cpi reports which show the inflation rate increasing. The next report comes out tomorrow morning. So that WTF I’m talking about.

 

[fatpiggy]

 

[fatpiggy]

BiDeNoMiCs

"The failure of Bidenomics has crushed confidence among US small businesses to the lowest level in more than a decade, as the future path of inflation remains a significant concern. Readers must remember small businesses are vital to the economy, contributing 44% of the country's economic activity and creating two-thirds of net new jobs."

"The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported Tuesday that its small-business optimism index declined .9 points to 88.5, the lowest level since the second half of 2012 - or about when the US economy climbed out of the worst financial crisis ever. "

 

[dpic73]

BiDeNoMiCs

"The failure of Bidenomics has crushed confidence among US small businesses to the lowest level in more than a decade, as the future path of inflation remains a significant concern. Readers must remember small businesses are vital to the economy, contributing 44% of the country's economic activity and creating two-thirds of net new jobs."

"The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported Tuesday that its small-business optimism index declined .9 points to 88.5, the lowest level since the second half of 2012 - or about when the US economy climbed out of the worst financial crisis ever. "

Three-Year Small Business Boom Is Unprecedented

On Thursday, the White House announced that the past three years have seen an unprecedented number of entrepreneurs start small businesses.

www.forbes.com

 

[fatpiggy]

Three-Year Small Business Boom Is Unprecedented

On Thursday, the White House announced that the past three years have seen an unprecedented number of entrepreneurs start small businesses.

www.forbes.com

I wonder why they aren't very optimistic? Any theories?

 

[fatpiggy]

Here is @dpic73 lol

 

[fatpiggy]

 

[fatpiggy]

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That’s $5340 a month. If the typical person did not get a $5,340 raise last year, then you got a pay cut.

 

[yoshi121374]

That’s $5340 a month. If the typical person did not get a $5,340 raise last year, then you got a pay cut.

I assume you mean $5340 a year? Many,many are Making more than before, wages are much higher with my company and I made more last year than any other year in my life so inflation hasn't effected my family it the least.

There are also serious concerns with companies claiming inflation to raise prices and pocket massive profits.

You don't care, because you are pushing a narrative, but like moet topics,there is nuance to this.

 

[fatpiggy]

I assume you mean $5340 a year? Many,many are Making more than before, wages are much higher with my company and I made more last year than any other year in my life so inflation hasn't effected my family it the least.

There are also serious concerns with companies claiming inflation to raise prices and pocket massive profits.

You don't care, because you are pushing a narrative, but like moet topics,there is nuance to this.

I meant year.

Nice humble brag that you had a great year last year.

And inflation is hurting you, you just don't see how. Inflation hurts everyone except the ultra-rich. But i am glad you had a great year last year and that your personal circumstances are unaffected like the majority of Americans.

 

[CUT93]

I assume you mean $5340 a year? Many,many are Making more than before, wages are much higher with my company and I made more last year than any other year in my life so inflation hasn't effected my family it the least.

There are also serious concerns with companies claiming inflation to raise prices and pocket massive profits.

You don't care, because you are pushing a narrative, but like moet topics,there is nuance to this.

There is some truth to what you are saying, but here's the thing. Poor and lower income homes are being decimated. They can't cut much discretionary spending - they don't have it. Yet, the things they have to pay- rent/utilities/gas/food/etc have skyrocketed. They know the "transitory inflation" claim was bs even if they don't know what transitory inflation is.
Savings are at historically low levels, credit card debt is high, foreclosures are up. The economy for the half of people who don't pay taxes sucks. I imagine many of the new jobs over the last couple of years are people having to work second jobs to make ends meet.
Yet dems are doubling down on massive govt spending and other policies to exacerbate the problem. Since biden took over the wage gap between rich and poor as well as between white/minorities has increased, and labor force participation is at a 40 year low, sans the pandemic.

The idea the economy is great is smoke and mirrors partially aided by the fact many people have had to take second jobs to make ends meet. None of the bold above happens during a real economic boom.

Historically, dems don't have to care about the poor bc they know they are going to vote dem no matter how shitty they make their lives. This election may change in that respect.
There is no getting around the fact that the poor and african americans, in particular, were much better off under trump than they are under biden or were under obama. They are reminded of that fact daily when they buy gas, groceries, pay utilities, and wonder where the $$ to pay the next bill is going to come from.

 

[yoshi121374]

I meant year.

Nice humble brag that you had a great year last year.

View embedded media

Hard work, intelligence, and a great team...

I did build that team so maybe a little brag there lol.

Honestly, the economy is not as bad as you guys are trying to make it out to be. Inflation sucks, but opportunity is everywhere for those willing to work.

 

[dpic73]

Here is @dpic73 lol

View embedded media

"Feel" is the operative word there.

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! All real Americans should be celebrating this.

trump lost jobs. biden adds jobs.

Friday’s report from the Labor Department also showed that the unemployment rate dipped from 3.9% to 3.8%. The jobless rate has now come in below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such streak since the 1960s. The government also revised up its estimate of job growth in January and February by a combined 22,000.

Another month of robust US job growth points to continued economic strength

America’s employers delivered another outpouring of jobs in March, adding a sizzling 303,000 workers and bolstering hopes that the economy can vanquish inflation without succumbing to a recession in the face of high interest rates.

apnews.com

Imagine being so ignorant that you think the economy is great….

And yes, Trump and his liberal economic stimulus has caused many of today’s issues… unfortunately liberals are too ignorant to understand this.

 

[fatpiggy]

Hard work, intelligence, and a great team...

I did build that team so maybe a little brag there lol.

Honestly, the economy is not as bad as you guys are trying to make it out to be. Inflation sucks, but opportunity is everywhere for those willing to work.

To me the economy is above average. But inflation is absolutely crushing me. I have 4 teenagers and they eat like adults. You really notice when you go to the grocery store, where prices have inflated at a higher rate than any other goods. The cost of raising children has risen dramatically in the past 4 years. Plus i am a responsible saver and thus, while investing offsets some of the inflation, it is still a net negative to my returns and overall situation.

But, I agree the economy is not as bad as the right makes it out to be, but its certainly not as good as the left is trying to make it sound either.

 

[CUT93]

Imagine being so ignorant that you think the economy is great….

And yes, Trump and his liberal economic stimulus has caused many of today’s issues… unfortunately liberals are too ignorant to understand this.

This is accurate. Outside of being a complete ass and terrible person, from a policy perspective, his drunken sailor spending is where I completely disagree. The counter to that is he still spends less than a dem would.

 

[yoshi121374]

This is accurate. Outside of being a complete ass and terrible person, from a policy perspective, his drunken sailor spending is where I completely disagree. The counter to that is he still spends less than a dem would.

Does he really spend less than a dem? Remember those payout checks he insisted on signing?

 

[CUT93]

Does he really spend less than a dem? Remember those payout checks he insisted on signing?

I absolutely think the $$$ spent under a democrat potus rather than trump would be greater in any past or future situation. I honestly cant believe that is a serious question.

 

[CUT93]

Does he really spend less than a dem? Remember those payout checks he insisted on signing?

Biden just proposed an $8T budget, and we are not in a pandemic situation. Did trump spend more than that, even during the pandemic?

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

This is accurate. Outside of being a complete ass and terrible person, from a policy perspective, his drunken sailor spending is where I completely disagree. The counter to that is he still spends less than a dem would.

If Trump had won in 2020 I have no doubt the deficit would be much bigger today than neocon Biden. I honestly believe Trump would have already cleared student loan debt as wel lol.

 

[CUT93]

If Trump had won in 2020 I have no doubt the deficit would be much bigger today than neocon Biden. I honestly believe Trump would have already cleared student loan debt as wel lol.

If trump had won in 2020, pubs would have control of the senate, a larger majority in the house, and that would not happen.
Not to mention, he nor biden have the authority to clear student loan debt.

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

If trump had won in 2020, pubs would have control of the senate, a larger majority in the house, and that would not happen.
Not to mention, he nor biden have the authority to clear student loan debt.

Presidents don’t have the authority to do a lot of things they do. And republicans would have gotten in line with Trump. They gladly helped pumped record stimulus, shut down the economy for the flu, then mandated Trump Shots.


But don’t let his record get in the way of what he pretends to care about.

 

[CUT93]

Presidents don’t have the authority to do a lot of things they do. And republicans would have gotten in line with Trump. They gladly helped pumped record stimulus, shut down the economy for the flu, then mandated Trump Shots.


But don’t let his record get in the way of what he pretends to care about.

They did spend too much $$$, but the pandemic was a little different situation. If you think democrats would spend less $$$ than pubs in the same situation, I just don't know what to tell you. That is honestly laughable.

Spending under trump the first three years before the pandemic was lower than every year since then. Biden has spent more $$$ than that the last two years and just proposed a budget 50% higher than Trumps highest pre pandemic years. That is the record, and is doesn't support your delusion.

Look, I'm not a trump fan, but he is the lesser of two evils. I would MUCH rather have someone else to vote for, but there are only two people who can win the election and I have to chose one even if they both suck.

 

[WapPride]

They did spend too much $$$, but the pandemic was a little different situation. If you think democrats would spend less $$$ than pubs in the same situation, I just don't know what to tell you. That is honestly laughable.

Spending under trump the first three years before the pandemic was lower than every year since then. Biden has spent more $$$ than that the last two years and just proposed a budget 50% higher than Trumps highest pre pandemic years. That is the record, and is doesn't support your delusion.

Look, I'm not a trump fan, but he is the lesser of two evils. I would MUCH rather have someone else to vote for, but there are only two people who can win the election and I have to chose one even if they both suck.

What's laughable is thinking republicans spend any less than democrats. They both want to spend endlessly; it's just on different things.

Federal Government: Current Expenditures

Graph and download economic data for Federal Government: Current Expenditures (FGEXPND) from Q1 1947 to Q4 2023 about expenditures, federal, government, GDP, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[dpic73]

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😜

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

They did spend too much $$$, but the pandemic was a little different situation. If you think democrats would spend less $$$ than pubs in the same situation, I just don't know what to tell you. That is honestly laughable.

Spending under trump the first three years before the pandemic was lower than every year since then. Biden has spent more $$$ than that the last two years and just proposed a budget 50% higher than Trumps highest pre pandemic years. That is the record, and is doesn't support your delusion.

Look, I'm not a trump fan, but he is the lesser of two evils. I would MUCH rather have someone else to vote for, but there are only two people who can win the election and I have to chose one even if they both suck.

Nothing gets passed under Biden. He by default becomes the lesser of two evils.

Before Covid Trump was screaming about the Fed raising rates. He’s a liberal when it comes to economics. When it comes to foreign policy he is George bush. Truly the worst of both parties.

I honestly can’t tell a difference between Bush, Obama, and Biden. I hate Dems for becoming neocons and I hate republicans for becoming socialist.

 

[fatpiggy]

Nothing gets passed under Biden. He by default becomes the lesser of two evils.

Before Covid Trump was screaming about the Fed raising rates. He’s a liberal when it comes to economics. When it comes to foreign policy he is George bush. Truly the worst of both parties.

I honestly can’t tell a difference between Bush, Obama, and Biden. I hate Dems for becoming neocons and I hate republicans for becoming socialist.

So Trump is George Bush on foreign policy?

Bush invaded a country under false pretenses. What did Trump do that equates to that?

Putin would have never invaded Ukraine if Trump was President. Biden exudes weakness and the proof is in the pudding.