My only question to that would be how much of the 1.83 would be attributed to the increase in testing. Was the actual number really closer to that 1.02-1.18 all along.
Fascinating findings
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My only question to that would be how much of the 1.83 would be attributed to the increase in testing. Was the actual number really closer to that 1.02-1.18 all along.
That's a good question-- I would imagine (and this is an assumption to be clear) that the GF in unreported cases mirrors the GF in reported cases. Thus the overall GF would remain more or less the same. Or one would think.
Exactly. We have more cases everyday. It's our rate of growth that is slowing. These next two weeks is where we really flip the script on this thing with social distancing/suppression measures.
Yall gotta realize that Bigtime likes to omit data to fit his agenda. He neglected total cases just weeks ago to say this was no big deal, which in the process was neglecting those who had died from this virus.
Take what he posts with a grain of salt
Take what he posts with a grain of salt
Hummm....we can work off that. I might be able to be convinced that across the country, the unreported could GF actually be higher than reported rate. So it might be that the testing spike would just get blended in with the lower positive rates.
On the flip side, Georgia's positive rate has increased with the additional testing. We were around 12-18% positive rate the last couple of weeks to almost 23% now. I wonder if that is because hospitals are testing now and that population is already assumed to be positive.
I don't mean for it to be political. Just a fact. They have terrible leadership, whom after our first person tested positive on January 21st in America, they continued to tell the largest city in America to continue doing what they do. In fact, "lets have a festival in China Town". I don't care what your political stance, I really don't. You simply cannot be that bad at your job and keep it. They literally infected their own people and should be held accountable. They are over 40% of the US cases.
NY will always be the epicenter of any attack or pandemic. Why on earth those people didn't get ahead of it blows my mind. Seriously, here in the real world they would be fired.
Even as the epidemic abates, the case numbers will increase because of the increase in testing and its availability for a while.
The truer indication of where we are will be hospitalized cases and deaths from COVID-19.
They are starting a decline already also. Go here to see the logarithmic graphs for both. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
These graphs below show 10 & 40 + days of stats that show exponential growth ending are being ignored. See graphs
projections the Government is using don’t take these trends into account
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
most up to date stats and to see the graphs used below
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
projections the Government is using
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
most up to date stats
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
two very positive 10+ day trends in these graphs:
Graph 1 is a clear down turn over the last tens days of new cases in the USA. The graph is clearly curling downward. This is a clear sign exponential growth is coming to an end in the USA
Graph 2 is a clear sign that exponential growth has declined in rest of the world even when you remove China from the data. This has happened over the last 40 days and it should drop below 1.0 permanently within a week if the trend continues. That will be the end of exponential growth.
I completely agree, but it might be the best we have right now? At least it's testing more of a geographical cross-section of people. The COVID test is almost uniformly being used to test sick people only and I know several who think they've had it who were turned away and weren't tested. The demographic aspect of the Kinsa data though definitely makes this "a" data point but not necessarily a definitive one. Also, if you think about it, most perfectly healthy (asymptomatic or otherwise) people wouldn't stick a thermometer in their mouth unless they suspected they have a fever. So the data set is already somewhat self-selecting there. If nothing else, it probably does show true positives because those are the spikes in temperature....that has to mean something (if not necessarily COVID-19).
Yes, NYC was way behind in their actual response, but the more I wonder, unless you quarantine BEFORE any cases got to NYC, would it really have made much of a difference? Shut down the subway, shut down Broadway, shut out visitors then at that point you are isolating people in crowded apartments buildings. Now if anyone is already exposed, you've just contained the virus in a single building. Unless its a negative pressure HVAC, the virus is just going to pass from apartment to apartment. Plus you have people living above essential businesses. NYC is just a very complicated city to quarantine. Its easy to quarantine NYC from the rest of the country, its hard to quarantine INSIDE NYC.
Of course the NYC experience is why we know that China continues to lie. Forcing people already exposed into a small area means that it will pass from family member to family member, apartment to apartment. But looking at China's reported data, they just had a cliff of no new cases. Thats just not going to happen. It would gradually fall. Not a cliff.
The virus is not airborne it can’t travel through HVAC. Also apartments don’t share air ducts
It can be transmitted through the air? It can settle on surfaces. Where are you getting your info?
Every apartment building has common areas, (lobbies, stairs, elevators, laundry room etc). The HVAC comment was for families living together. My bad. Didn't mean to imply that the person in 1C was going to give it to the family in 27E through the air conditioning.
The countries' data you should trust are the ones that did a good job handling the outbreak, based on tests per capita. In ten weeks we've tested as many people as Germany tests in 3-4 days, and as many as South Korea does in a week.
The only states I would consider to have semi-legit numbers are in the dark blue: WA, NM, NY, and HI.
I think this is where the U.S. lands. My predictions for Fall 2020/Spring 2021 are:
(1) Baked-in "long holidays"/furloughs for major urban school districts (plus those hit hardest by COVID-19) - I could see schools just pre-planning to shut down from Christmas through end of February, for example, and planning the school year just to go into July. We might look back on this as the shift to year-round schooling, similar to Japan and other countries.
(2) States will cobble together a variety of health certificates (doesn't look like the federal government can get organized enough to do much of anything) that will be used to verify a bill of health to employers. I could see many service jobs requiring that in the future as a condition of employment.
(3) We will have an all-out New Deal-style investment in health care infrastructure, national stockpiles, new hospitals, etc over the next decade. America may get caught sleeping once-in-a-generation but, when we wake up, no country takes on huge problems better than we can and I believe we still have the ability to do it.
(4) Within 10 years, we will have some form of national Universal Basic Income.
(5) It is almost a given at this point that we will have (continue to have) some form of national health care as a baseline protection.
According to my wife's dad (a Doctor in West Chester, NY) it's a combo of both. They are overwhelmed and do not have room currently. Still, they are seeing less people come in for treatment/testing requests.
I will be blown away if de Blasio gets re-elected. Not sure about current term limitation requirements in NYC, etc though.
More important than national trends for the US are local ones. While NYC region may be within 15 days of peaking, the DC area - where I live - is likely 30 days from its peak. Rural areas and locations where a high percentage of residents are higher risk (obesity, smokers, heart disease, etc.) will likely peak even later. And it is likely their death rates will be higher due not only to the conditions of the patients but the lack of resources in rural hospitals.
I am confident that social distancing is working where it is done well. I am not convinced the entire country has adopted it sufficiently.
I am confident that social distancing is working where it is done well. I am not convinced the entire country has adopted it sufficiently.
DeBlasio will most definitely be held accountable. He f-ing told people a few weeks back to head out on the town and live life.
To put that in perspective, we were told to WFH from my office on Tuesday, March 3.
Cuomo comes out of this a huge winner, though.
Given the advance warning we had on this, the planning/testing/etc. could not have been a more epic failure.
It's embarrassing and tragic.
DeBlasio would not have been re-elected regardless, unless his only competition is one of the Trump kids. Now, he needs to not even bother running.
They are starting a decline already also. Go here to see the logarithmic graphs for both. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
These graphs below show 10 & 40 + days of stats that show exponential growth ending are being ignored. See graphs
projections the Government is using don’t take these trends into account
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
most up to date stats and to see the graphs used below
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
projections the Government is using
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
most up to date stats
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
two very positive 10+ day trends in these graphs:
Graph 1 is a clear down turn over the last tens days of new cases in the USA. The graph is clearly curling downward. This is a clear sign exponential growth is coming to an end in the USA
Graph 2 is a clear sign that exponential growth has declined in rest of the world even when you remove China from the data. This has happened over the last 40 days and it should drop below 1.0 permanently within a week if the trend continues. That will be the end of exponential growth.
Again, you aren't interpreting the data in the proper context. First, the notion that this has been a 40 day trend is absurd.
When looking at AMERICAN growth factors, the last month is the only span of time we have any real data on which to rely.
The last two weeks the US growth factors are as follow, starting on 3/16 and moving forward to yesterday:
1.77, 1.63, 1.61, 1.22, 1.95, 1.08, 1.09, 1.21, 1.29, 1.08, 1.04, 1.02, 1.02.
Notice two things:
-First, we bump around a lot. Flattening is a process and not an event.
-Second, there is no real data in America on which to track the growth before 3/16. There had hardly been any tests. You seem adamant that the data indicates that things were resolving themselves before social distancing. The US data suggests the opposite.
Trump declares state of emergency on 3/13. Schools close and local and state governments implement social distancing/suppression measures soon thereafter.
The data from 3/16-3/20 shows significantly higher growth factors (1.77, 1.63, 1.61, 1.95) and it SHOULD. Because of the incubation period of 5-7 days, the reported cases from that date range measures transmissions BEFORE suppression efforts.
When you get past 3/21, you begin to see a noticeable downward trend.
He's just gonna hit you with the same graphs and ignore most if not all of what you said. He really isnt interested in learning or looking at anything else.
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Graph 1 is a clear down turn over the last tens days of new cases in the USA. The graph is clearly curling downward. This is a clear sign exponential growth is coming to an end in the USA
Graph 2 is a clear sign that exponential growth has declined in rest of the world even when you remove China from the data. This has happened over the last 40 days and it should drop below 1.0 permanently within a week if the trend continues. That will be the end of exponential growth."
I understand a logarithmic graph.
You stated that there is a "clear down turn over the last tens days of new cases in the USA." I took that to mean the number of new cases per day were decreasing. There has been a downturn in the rate of increase in new cases in the last 5 days, but the number of new cases in America is still increasing.
You are right in that the rate of infection is decreasing in American and around the world with the distancing measures in place. There seems to be progress and a lot of positives right now and I do think the even "best case" scenarios are out of whack considering the measures being taken and the possible treatments on the horizon.
The major problem was not closing the schools. They waited to send out the close order on Monday, March 17, I believe....long after Broadway had closed for example. My wife is a consultant working to support the school system (she's now actually helping build the online curriculum for all 1st grade teachers across the city) and DeBlasio just couldn't pull the trigger even when the right answer was obvious. Tragically, one principal caught it the week he dithered and is now dead. I think there are about 1.1 million kids in the school system and about ~100,000 of those are technically classified as homeless. Something like 40-50% are still going by schools and getting three meals per day. So the public schools - especially in outer areas of the boroughs - almost have a "life" responsibility for these kids, not just an "education" responsibility. The demographics of a place like Manhattan are just odd compared to everyone else:
(1) Most people in their 20's/30's aren't married and, if they are, they don't have kids. Very common to see newly married couples in their 40's or 50's even with their first babies.
(2) The ones who do get married younger, that have good incomes, that then have kids tend to all bail out to New Jersey, Connecticut, or Long Island. Can't blame them because your options are either: win a lottery to get in one of the top schools in the country (i.e. Stuyvesant) or send them to a super high end private school (kindergartens like that start at $30K per year, high schools go up into the $80k's).
(3) That basically leaves lower income, largely immigrant populations working service jobs sending their kids to most of the public schools in The Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens. My wife does teacher training at a set of schools in The Bronx that are something like 82% Spanish-speaking as a native language. 17% of the remaining 18% are Asian. A very large percentage of these leave school and stay with grandparents until their parent(s) are off work, which also made DeBlasio's decision a terribly difficult one.
DeBlasio had a very very hard decision to make but he should have chosen life/health as a baseline, even above dotting all the i's and crossing all the t's for food, child care, etc. All the data is showing what a difference an extra one, two, or three days of quick action can make.
[
Graph 1 is a clear down turn over the last tens days of new cases in the USA. The graph is clearly curling downward. This is a clear sign exponential growth is coming to an end in the USA
Graph 2 is a clear sign that exponential growth has declined in rest of the world even when you remove China from the data. This has happened over the last 40 days and it should drop below 1.0 permanently within a week if the trend continues. That will be the end of exponential growth."
I understand a logarithmic graph.
You stated that there is a "clear down turn over the last tens days of new cases in the USA." I took that to mean the number of new cases per day were decreasing. There has been a downturn in the rate of increase in new cases in the last 5 days, but the number of new cases in America is still increasing.
You are right in that the rate of infection is decreasing in American and around the world with the distancing measures in place. There seems to be progress and a lot of positives right now and I do think the even "best case" scenarios are out of whack considering the measures being taken and the possible treatments on the horizon.
Yes, he pretty clearly is struggling with some concepts here. BigTime, let's get one thing straight. Every single day this month has had the highest number of new cases. We set a record every day. What is slowing down is how much we break the record by every day.
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Not sure NY Times would recognize a FACT if it hit them in the nose!
Cases have only hit new records by less than 1,000 over past 3 days so that is positive, but at the same time the testing is spotty and results lag.
I had a coworker who the doctor on the phone said they had it, but to not go out and get tested for confirmation.
I don't know a ton of people, but the following are positive or presumptive positive.
Coworker in NC
Coworker in VA
Coworker in GA
Company has less than 500 employees
Neighbor in NC
Customer in IN
Customer in IL
Friend in SC
Freind's sister in MO
Makes me think it is everywhere and the test are just the tip of the iceberg.
Obviously I'm outside looking in, it seems like DeBlasio either abdicated his responsibility to Cuomo or Cuomo so overshadowed him it made him useless. Or it could just be a difference in personality. But DeBlasio looks so weak in comparison.
Here's my question..
Assuming we are flattening the curve.
When does life get back to normal?
Let's say we keep the current pace of around 18k to 20k positive test a day for the month of April with No exponential growth.
When are we in the clear where events can happen like sports? I have to think at this point schools are done till August.
Assuming we are flattening the curve.
When does life get back to normal?
Let's say we keep the current pace of around 18k to 20k positive test a day for the month of April with No exponential growth.
When are we in the clear where events can happen like sports? I have to think at this point schools are done till August.
I sure hope you're wrong about most of this. I can only speak for myself in saying I will do everything in my power to fight these measures. What a horrible place to live that would make for . Just horrible. I don't think the Feds have done nearly as bad a job as you're stating but they have also said since day one they would support, not implement. I don't know how people keep missing this. In these situations, the Feds should be doing very little other than using resources to support localities and states. Local leadership is far better equipped to have an actual impact in a country this big.
Will be really interesting when the looking into the CDC's decision to stumble out the approved testing and waiting to engage with the private sector. We will look back on this a lot like 9/11 where there were a whole host of unforced errors made, we will come out in a much better position to deal with these events in the future.
It has been an ongoing tug of war between those two for several years (research the battle over the MTA for an example). DeBlasio had a completely bizarre statement a couple of weeks back where he outright floated the idea of a total lockdown (to apparently include transportation, bridges, tunnels, etc..) of NYC. Cuomo instantly shot that down and said it would never happen but the fact those two weren't even on the same page speaks volumes.
Cuomo is a Democrat who actually has been a target of the "progressives", of which there are obviously many in a city like NYC. He's been a friend to the massive real estate interests in the city and has been viewed as underfunding/crippling the MTA.
Honestly, though, what all this has taught me is that the day to day policies of politicians are largely meaningless compared to their ability to communicate, show empathy, and provide leadership in times of crisis. I think even most conservative Republicans would give Cuomo high marks on all of that. I don't watch his press conferences every day but it's clear he's really speaking from the heart and is doing all he can to help which is about all you can ask.
Trumps got a 60% approval rating on how he’s handling this. As the virus gets crushed in the next 8 weeks, the rating will only go up. If he didn’t stop those China flights, we would be worse than Italy. At the time, the main stream media bashed that decision as racist. Not a good look for them. Ask see I Deblasio encouraged New Yorkers and city leaders to go celebrate the Chinese Holiday in China Town. That spread the virus biggily.
Speaking of Italy, they tried to be PC, and it came back to haunt them. Look up-Hug a Chinaman Day. It exasperated the crisis. As did all the Chinese that returned to North Italy on planes after the Chinese New Year.
Speaking of Italy, they tried to be PC, and it came back to haunt them. Look up-Hug a Chinaman Day. It exasperated the crisis. As did all the Chinese that returned to North Italy on planes after the Chinese New Year.
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