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Fun hypothetical - how much to retire today?

this is me 3 years ago. my biggest surprise is that insurance is $4000 per month (with a $5000 deductible) ps inflation and the stock mkt sux right now
Jesus. I obviously haven't put $4000 per month into the calculator for insurance.
 
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Hit nail on head.
Wife and I travel, lake and beach house ( hers with her sister) 21 rental homes, part of 3 commercial buildings 16-25,000 sq ft.
I look at my “net worth” then look at “if I had to firesale tomorrow” worth and figure everything on worst case scenario’s.
Not planning on using my retirement but not not planning on using it….
My wife ( me too just not as much) has the gift of “GIVING”. Which I don’t care but it is anyone in any kind of need, tithe, anyone doing anything in the community…..
she would love me to win lottery as she says she could help so so many and totally enjoy. I’ve got to much invested in her to get rid of her ha ha but I do enjoy her company most ( not all) days
Good point. I feel like net worth is overrated and not the best measurement of financial performance. Cash flow or fire sale worth are more accurate. I say that because net worth factors in home equity and while you can live in your home you can’t live off it. It also factors in retirement accounts and unless you’re 60+ your retirement account isn’t worth what your balance is, it’s worth your balance minus taxes minus early withdrawal penalties.
 
If you had to choose would it be commercial property or rental houses?
At any given time either can be best. Houses are steady but commercial more return so long as they are rented. In my case my company rents from me and when things slow down at work rent is often late. Friend has high end office buildings and during Covid and even now a lot of people working from home and those renting have bailed
Houses roll along good then 2 roofs and 3 heat/air systems cut into things greatly.
Brother in law has 80-100 houses and 35 mobile homes. Best return on investment is low cost homes and mobile home but also the most headaches.
 
Jesus. I obviously haven't put $4000 per month into the calculator for insurance.
This is my biggest concern. I hope to retire at 58-59 (I turn 55 in May of 2023). My house will be paid off in late 2023, but I looked at the costs of Health Insurance and it basically replaces my house payment. I know exactly how much I spend a month as I have been tracking it for 5 years. If I have to pay 3-4K/month for health care, it certainly changes the dynamics on how much money I will need. I looked at the exchanges and it was $2500/month for health care with a $17K deductible.

If you do the math, if I retire at 59 and have to pay health care till 65 when eligible for Medicare, that would be close to $300K over those 7 years just for medical. THAT SUCKS.
 
For anyone that has has to pay for their insurance Medicare is a great thing
Wife and I got roughly a 30,000 raise at age 65.
Those working for state or company with great benefits are very lucky
 
A lot will change. My Medicare premium for my wife and I will double. That will just piss me off more than anything. Really piss me off Unlike the progressive income tax if you are 1cent over the next income bracket your ENTIRE premium goes way up. And I will also have more disposable income even after tax. Maybe get a Tesla. 😀 I may or may not reinvest. May travel.
I will have to pull a bunch out each year and my children will be hoping the balance stays the same by growth. Ha. Maybe.
One good thing is that at least for now starting at 70.5 you can pay all of your charitable contributions out of the funds and it wont be taxed. And at 72.5 that will also count toward the mandatory minimum. (I look for the 70.5 to sync with the 72.5 soon)
My brother bought a Tesla two years ago. He finally took a long trip (my cousin's funeral here in SC / he lives in New York). He has one of the new Hyundai's on order. The lack of independent controls for heat / AC and radio showed up on the long drive (have to look away from the road and go through menus). The true battery range shows up on long trips. Unlike fossil fuel cars which get better milage on steady state interstate driving, the faster you go in an EV, the less miles per charge.
 
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My brother bought a Tesla two years ago. He finally took a long trip (my cousin's funeral here in SC / he lives in New York). He has one of the new Hyundai's on order. The lack of independent controls for heat / AC and radio showed up on the long drive (have to look away from the road and go through menus). The true battery range shows up on long trips. Unlike fossil fuel cars which get better milage on steady state interstate driving, the faster you go in an EV, the less miles per charge.
Yeah. I didn’t know about the climate control. But in reality, until range is 450-500 miles I’m out. We drive to Pittsburgh a lot. 565 miles. No way I’m stopping for two charges, waiting in line and charging over 30 min. And finding one in WVA.
 
Help me understand why some people are paying $4,000 a month for insurance. I’m a 1099 and can pay $1400 a month through the market and that’s with no subsidies due to income. Why can’t you go through the government marketplace and get same offer? Is it due to age?
 
This is my biggest concern. I hope to retire at 58-59 (I turn 55 in May of 2023). My house will be paid off in late 2023, but I looked at the costs of Health Insurance and it basically replaces my house payment. I know exactly how much I spend a month as I have been tracking it for 5 years. If I have to pay 3-4K/month for health care, it certainly changes the dynamics on how much money I will need. I looked at the exchanges and it was $2500/month for health care with a $17K deductible.

If you do the math, if I retire at 59 and have to pay health care till 65 when eligible for Medicare, that would be close to $300K over those 7 years just for medical. THAT SUCKS.
Will the income you need from your retirement accounts be low enough to qualify for Obama care subsides? With no FICA or SS and lower income brackets you might be able to meet your needs and keep withdrawals low enough to qualify.

If you are an independent businessman and qualify for a rollover health care account there is another path. Purchase catastrophic insurance and pay out of the health care account. Where I live there is a concierge medical practice (monthly payments for unlimited visits). For surgery, there are cash clinics like the surgery center of Oklahoma. A total knee costs 18K (yes close to your deductible) as opposed to 60-100 K at most hospital systems. When you take off the overhead of insurance (estimated at 30-40%), covering the loss for low Medicare payments, and for people that pay nothing the true cost of medical care isn't bad.

Not purchasing standard insurance means you are not supporting the poor and needy. Yes, there may be some freeloaders and illegal aliens among those but per the Democrat party they are few. It is your obligation to work to 65 and support those in need. Otherwise you are among the MAGA terrorists President Biden talks about.
 
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10Mil for my life style. At 51, I figure I got another 75yrs on the job then I’ll have it made
 
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Help me understand why some people are paying $4,000 a month for insurance. I’m a 1099 and can pay $1400 a month through the market and that’s with no subsidies due to income. Why can’t you go through the government marketplace and get same offer? Is it due to age?
the $4000 is for the 2 of us (and wife has upcharge as a smoker).

next year she can get medicare
 
Help me understand why some people are paying $4,000 a month for insurance. I’m a 1099 and can pay $1400 a month through the market and that’s with no subsidies due to income. Why can’t you go through the government marketplace and get same offer? Is it due to age?
In my case I had over 50 employees (me being one of them) so it is mandatory to offer insurance to everyone and even if none or very few participate I am (was) stuck with this. Blue Cross with 12,000 deductible and 80/20 until I spent 16,000cost my wife and I (both healthy) was in excess of 18,000 dollars and at age 62,63,64 we were knocking on 30,000 dollars just for the policy.
Trust me i got quotes from 4-5 different companies and all the same..
As I stated Medicare is a wonderful thing....and amazing when you go to the doctor all of the different test I all of a sudden need.....They look at a computer program and it tells them everything medicare will pay for so those are the test I need.
 
To maintain the standard of living I want to maintain and be able to do what I want in retirement? $10-12MM.
If I recall correctly, you're of similar age to me and also in the financial industry. (In fact, I'm thinking it's possible we met once - were you by chance the guy who spoke with our group at AMP a couple years ago? I remember you starting a thread about moving to the triad and then a Clemson guy came through shortly thereafter, so I started wondering if maybe that was you...)

Either way, your number is basically double mine. Completely understandable if your standard of living is higher, but at least in my opinion, my wife and I have a decent standard. Of course I am factoring in what I have already accumulated, and I don't have any idea (nor am I asking) how that compares to you - but if you don't mind sharing, I'd love to hear a rough estimate of your living expenses each month (no mortgage / debt service - just core living expenses). I'm always interested in how my household compares to other young families in this area as it relates to general spending.
 
age 58. I'll need $2 million to go home everyday. Dream bigly man.
Illustrative of just how variable these things are. I'm 62 now, with more than that and am concerned about my retirement. Of course, having two kids in high school impacts that stance significantly. It's a matter of that, where your money is and your lifestyle. Right now, we've got $1.5M tired up in houses and will probably dump in another $400k over the next 6 months. It'll probably take another 3 years to get my cash up to your $2M, and then I'll feel good about retirement. We're also going to be counting on about $50-60k net from VRBO annually.
 
There's no way I could afford to retire now. If I'm sitting around all day, I'm going to dream up crap I need to buy, like boats, extra houses, redo the yard every few years, probably a divorce payment of half my stuff (or a defense attorney for one of us that survived the shootout).

Retirement is for old people who are smart enough to realize they can't do what they dream about anymore. Not for people who still think "lets take this 22ft boat to the Bahamas" is a plausible idea.
I used to think exactly like this, but before I took my last gig, I took a couple months off. My company had gotten bought out and I had some nice stock options, so I was just going to pay the tax man anyway. I thoroughly enjoyed that time and found it tough to get back in the swing. I don't think I played golf more than once or twice since it was Nov-Dec. I started my day mid-morning, went to the gym, got a coffee or smoothie afterwards, met some friends for lunch and worked around the house/yard in the afternoon. I think I was mid to late 40s at the time.
 
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If I recall correctly, you're of similar age to me and also in the financial industry. (In fact, I'm thinking it's possible we met once - were you by chance the guy who spoke with our group at AMP a couple years ago? I remember you starting a thread about moving to the triad and then a Clemson guy came through shortly thereafter, so I started wondering if maybe that was you...)

Either way, your number is basically double mine. Completely understandable if your standard of living is higher, but at least in my opinion, my wife and I have a decent standard. Of course I am factoring in what I have already accumulated, and I don't have any idea (nor am I asking) how that compares to you - but if you don't mind sharing, I'd love to hear a rough estimate of your living expenses each month (no mortgage / debt service - just core living expenses). I'm always interested in how my household compares to other young families in this area as it relates to general spending.
That was me. I ended up taking a position with an RIA as an analyst/PM running their portfolios and trying to build that side for them.

Our standard of living is certainly higher than average. I don’t think it’s crazy though. We don’t have a ton of debt. We some real estate beyond our primary residence. Selling in Raleigh and moving to the triad was big. Massive discrepancy in home prices, and that gave us the freedom to look at some secondary property. We have a couple kids in private daycare. Part time nanny. Cars are paid for, but we’re about to have to get a new one. Monthly outflows are usually between $14-16K. This year was more on average probably with a master/master bath gut job remodel. We travel a good bit. But, all in all nothing crazy.

The primary reason I throw out $10MM is because I think more so than for the last few generations, invested assets are going to have to be treated increasingly different in retirement as we move forward. Market cycles are getting compressed. Volatility is trending higher. Correlations are rising. Costs are rising and I think slightly higher than average inflation is probably a fixture in most market regimes going forward. I think you are going to have to maintain higher levels of cash/short term debt within portfolios to avoid getting squeezed during more frequent drawdowns, and then be more strategically aggressive with the rest of a portfolio. I’m also pretty young, so my money would have to last a while. That, and my wife and I have stated we want to leave each child with a decent chunk and we know that where we want to retire is relatively expensive. Thus, $10-12MM is the goal we’ve set for ourselves where we feel like we can comfortably do what we want without having to excessively worry.
 
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I used to think exactly like this, but before I took my last gig, I took a couple months off. My company had gotten bought out and I had some nice stock options, so I was just going to pay the tax man anyway. I thoroughly enjoyed that time and found it tough to get back in the swing. I don't think I played golf more than once or twice since it was Nov-Dec. I started my day mid-morning, went to the gym, got a coffee or smoothie afterwards, met some friends for lunch and worked around the house/yard in the afternoon. I think I was mid to late 40s at the time.
Your example is why I never plan to fully retire. I am scared of inertia and relevance. I own a small real estate related business, and its scalable within reason. I can see working at least 2-3 days a week for many years to come, if the Lord blesses me with continued health and wit enough to want to do it. At 58, I am just now understanding I know nothing about it.
 
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In armed services you served. Any other government job you were a leach
I've got to differ significantly with you there. I work with a number of people in the federal government and many of them are making less than they could in the private sector and work extremely hard. Not all of them are driven, but way more than not contribute more than they take.
 
Not to get political but tell me who the president is? I had been growing a decent nest egg for retirement but it has gone backwards significantly the past 2 years. The number I would give you now is quite a bit higher than what I would have said back then.


I’m curious as to how you’ve lost a significant amount of your nest egg over the past 2 years?
 
$1mm. Bc at $1mm, you now have enough to invest in Georgia tax sales and literally make over 100k per year after tax in a truly passive fashion.


In Georgia, you shownup to a tax sale, bid on the property, and 1 of two thongs happen. 1. They homeowner pay you 10% of the bid amount 2. They dont pay up and you get to keep a $500K home that you bought for 300K
We've actually been talking about doing exactly that. We've got a remodel VRBO project we want to finish, but after that, the tax sale seems like a great opportunity. BTW, S.C. tax sales work similarly.
 
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Tell me more.

We've actually been talking about doing exactly that. We've got a remodel VRBO project we want to finish, but after that, the tax sale seems like a great opportunity. BTW, S.C. tax sales work similarly.
So, you show up at the courthouse steps and literally bid on homes (google to see how it’s done…it’s exactly what you’re envision haha). 20% profits. 20%!!!!!! If you have the cash to get the truly great properties, there is no other investment vehicle I would use.


Purchasers of property at tax sale do not automatically "own" the property, and property owners do not immediately get evicted. Purchasers must by law allow the owner one year after the date of sale to redeem the property. In addition to the property owner, anyone with legal interest in the property, such as a mortgage company or anyone who holds a lien on the property, may also redeem the property. To redeem a property, the owner or interested party must pay the purchaser the amount the purchaser paid at tax sale, plus 20 percent of that amount. In addition to this amount, the purchaser may also add to the redemption price the dollar amount of any subsequent property taxes the purchaser paid on the property after the tax sale took place.

One year from the date of the tax sale the purchaser may foreclose on the right of redemption and forever bar anyone from redeeming the property from that time on. The purchaser must issue written notice of this action. At that point, the purchaser may take steps to become the deeded owner of the property. The purchaser will automatically take title to the property four years after the date the tax deed was recorded if the property is not redeemed, even if the purchaser does not formally foreclose on the right of redemption. This process is also known as the “ripening” of the tax deed.
 
In armed services you served. Any other government job you were a leach
I served 3 years of active Army, and six years of active reserve. The last 17 years of my federal service I served at the VA Hospital (Dept. of Veteran Affairs), serving veterans. I hardly doubt most would consider that a "leach" job. But you might, because you are likely not a veteran. Maybe you served in the Boy Scouts or Girl Scouts?
 
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So, you show up at the courthouse steps and literally bid on homes (google to see how it’s done…it’s exactly what you’re envision haha). 20% profits. 20%!!!!!! If you have the cash to get the truly great properties, there is no other investment vehicle I would use.


Purchasers of property at tax sale do not automatically "own" the property, and property owners do not immediately get evicted. Purchasers must by law allow the owner one year after the date of sale to redeem the property. In addition to the property owner, anyone with legal interest in the property, such as a mortgage company or anyone who holds a lien on the property, may also redeem the property. To redeem a property, the owner or interested party must pay the purchaser the amount the purchaser paid at tax sale, plus 20 percent of that amount. In addition to this amount, the purchaser may also add to the redemption price the dollar amount of any subsequent property taxes the purchaser paid on the property after the tax sale took place.

One year from the date of the tax sale the purchaser may foreclose on the right of redemption and forever bar anyone from redeeming the property from that time on. The purchaser must issue written notice of this action. At that point, the purchaser may take steps to become the deeded owner of the property. The purchaser will automatically take title to the property four years after the date the tax deed was recorded if the property is not redeemed, even if the purchaser does not formally foreclose on the right of redemption. This process is also known as the “ripening” of the tax deed.
Thanks. This does seem like a great way to turn a profit. Biggest negative being your capital is “locked up” for at least a year, if not 4.

I own one investment property, but would really like to expand that portfolio in the coming years.
 
Its the same posters. Every. Single. Thread. Cant we just talk retiremen without politics for like 10 min??haha
 
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I'm right between you two in age (37). Funny b/c my number is somewhere between 4-5M (combined with what I already have accumulated). I could make it work with less, but to live my lifestyle (stress-free), I think that's what it'd take.

Just interesting to see what others think and how that changes with age.

Roughly the same boat, 36 currently. The way I looked at it is, I'd want it to net out to where I could be at ~$250k/year for the next 20 years, then plan for a subsequent 20-30 years at $100k/year.

Anything less than $4MM, I wouldn't even consider. Anything in the $4-6MM range, I'd certainly be doing some heavy analyzing and having some tough conversations. Anything over $6MM and I'd ask where to sign.
 
That was me. I ended up taking a position with an RIA as an analyst/PM running their portfolios and trying to build that side for them.

Our standard of living is certainly higher than average. I don’t think it’s crazy though. We don’t have a ton of debt. We some real estate beyond our primary residence. Selling in Raleigh and moving to the triad was big. Massive discrepancy in home prices, and that gave us the freedom to look at some secondary property. We have a couple kids in private daycare. Part time nanny. Cars are paid for, but we’re about to have to get a new one. Monthly outflows are usually between $14-16K. This year was more on average probably with a master/master bath gut job remodel. We travel a good bit. But, all in all nothing crazy.

The primary reason I throw out $10MM is because I think more so than for the last few generations, invested assets are going to have to be treated increasingly different in retirement as we move forward. Market cycles are getting compressed. Volatility is trending higher. Correlations are rising. Costs are rising and I think slightly higher than average inflation is probably a fixture in most market regimes going forward. I think you are going to have to maintain higher levels of cash/short term debt within portfolios to avoid getting squeezed during more frequent drawdowns, and then be more strategically aggressive with the rest of a portfolio. I’m also pretty young, so my money would have to last a while. That, and my wife and I have stated we want to leave each child with a decent chunk and we know that where we want to retire is relatively expensive. Thus, $10-12MM is the goal we’ve set for ourselves where we feel like we can comfortably do what we want without having to excessively worry.
At what point do y’all want to leave your children with a decent chunk just curious?
 
I served 3 years of active Army, and six years of active reserve. The last 17 years of my federal service I served at the VA Hospital (Dept. of Veteran Affairs), serving veterans. I hardly doubt most would consider that a "leach" job. But you might, because you are likely not a veteran. Maybe you served in the Boy Scouts or Girl Scouts?
mea culpa. Based on your post history I thought you were an IRS agent
 
I’m shooting for 61. Being in the Georgia TRS really sets your mind at ease. Will draw 60% of two highest years and receive a 3% raise every year plus benefits. I have around 500k in other retirement accounts with another 10 years of growth that should be enough to live the way we have. My wife is younger and will still be active after I retire.
 
At any given time either can be best. Houses are steady but commercial more return so long as they are rented. In my case my company rents from me and when things slow down at work rent is often late. Friend has high end office buildings and during Covid and even now a lot of people working from home and those renting have bailed
Houses roll along good then 2 roofs and 3 heat/air systems cut into things greatly.
Brother in law has 80-100 houses and 35 mobile homes. Best return on investment is low cost homes and mobile home but also the most headaches.
Had to replace 4 HVAC units this year 🤬
 
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