Let's talk polls and betting odds
- Thread starter leetp
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An analysis of voter turnout from Newsweek:
Arizona
2.5M voted early; 797k were from registered Dems; over 1.02M from Repubs
Georgia
4.0M voted early; 92 counties exceeded 50% turnout; no party affiliation given (jerks
)
Michigan
3.3M voted early; no party affiliation given (also jerks)
Nevada
543K voted early; 247,263 were Republicans vs 150,160 Democrats
Tar Holes
4.46M voted early (57% of the state's registered voters); no affiliation given (super jerks)
Pennsyltucky
1.8M already voted; Dems lead 1.04M to 623k Repubs (still a significant increase by Repubs over 2020 against a significant decrease by Dems)
Wisky
1.5M voted; no party breakout; double super jerks)
www.newsweek.com
Arizona
2.5M voted early; 797k were from registered Dems; over 1.02M from Repubs
Georgia
4.0M voted early; 92 counties exceeded 50% turnout; no party affiliation given (jerks
)Michigan
3.3M voted early; no party affiliation given (also jerks)
Nevada
543K voted early; 247,263 were Republicans vs 150,160 Democrats
Tar Holes
4.46M voted early (57% of the state's registered voters); no affiliation given (super jerks)
Pennsyltucky
1.8M already voted; Dems lead 1.04M to 623k Repubs (still a significant increase by Repubs over 2020 against a significant decrease by Dems)
Wisky
1.5M voted; no party breakout; double super jerks)
How is voter turnout so far in US election? A look at the 7 swing states
Here's how early voting stands in seven key battleground states ahead of the election.
www.newsweek.com
idk, and I'd have to be a moron before legislating or court ruling away that right without understanding the far reaching impacts. Wouldn't I?
Dog catches car, the Trump Dobbs story.
Lol at your idk response. You know good and well that those life saving situations represents a very small number of abortions.
Heck. There weee abortion trucks at the DNC ready and eager to abort babies. They must have anticipated a lot of life saving procedures inside those trucks…..
Give me a damn break.
If we were sitting down face to face, I'd help you understand my perspective. You would understand my issues with how things have transpired. Now we could talk about abortion and how the government plays that role, at the end though my position is: We don't need the government deciding this, if you don't want an abortion, don't get one.
The latest betting market pull is much the same as the last few, but there has been some volatilely in between. For ex, polymarket has dipped below 57% for Trump at one point before rebounding sharply. In fact, as I type is has already shot up to 64.7% now 67%!
| 08:15 AM | | 10:45 AM | | 04:30 PM | | 07:30 PM | |
| Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris |
BetOnline | 63.9 | 39.2 | 64.9 | 30.8 | 62.3 | 30.8 | 63.0 | 41.7 |
Betfair | 61.4 | 39.1 | 61.7 | 38.5 | 61.7 | 38.5 | 62.1 | 38.8 |
Betsson | 60.6 | 42.7 | 60.6 | 42.7 | 63.6 | 42.7 | 63.6 | 41.7 |
Bovada | 61.5 | 41.7 | 62.5 | 42.7 | 62.3 | 42.7 | 62.3 | 42.6 |
Bwin | 62.3 | 42.6 | 62.3 | 42.6 | 62.3 | 42.6 | 62.3 | 42.6 |
Points Bet | 64.5 | 40.8 | 64.5 | 40.8 | 64.5 | 40.8 | 64.5 | 40.8 |
Polymarket | 61.1 | 39.1 | 62.7 | 37.3 | 61.1 | 37.3 | 61.8 | 38.4 |
Smarkets | 60.2 | 39.7 | 60.6 | 39.1 | 60.6 | 39.1 | 61.4 | 39.1 |
Average | 61.9 | 40.6 | 62.5 | 39.3 | 62.3 | 39.3 | 62.6 | 40.7 |
Most betting markets are pushing Trump to 70%...but PA remains tight. Not sure what there are seeing. Anyone got any ideas?
Boom! SC called for Trump. I <3 SC
EDIT: Sorry...I won't do that anymore in this thread. I value everyone's analysis. Please post up is any of you see something.
EDIT: Sorry...I won't do that anymore in this thread. I value everyone's analysis. Please post up is any of you see something.
Wow...what a difference 30 minutes make....
| 07:30 PM | | 08:00 PM | |
| Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris |
BetOnline | 69.2 | 35.1 | 69.2 | 35.1 |
Betfair | 62.1 | 38.8 | 68.0 | 32.8 |
Betsson | 68.9 | 36.4 | 70.4 | 35.1 |
Bovada | 62.3 | 42.6 | 71.4 | 32.3 |
Bwin | 62.3 | 42.6 | 69.2 | 34.5 |
Points Bet | 64.5 | 40.8 | 72.5 | 33.3 |
Polymarket | 61.8 | 38.4 | 70.6 | 29.7 |
Smarkets | 61.4 | 39.1 | 69.0 | 30.8 |
Average | 64.1 | 39.2 | 70.0 | 32.9 |
Are any of yall getting these exit poll returns? If half of these are true, how can this race be close?
For Trump on Bovada:
NC at -320 (76.2)
NV at -180 (64.3)
AZ -1,000 (90.9)
PA -180 (64.3)
WI -170 (63.0) !!!!!!!!
IA -850 (89.5)
NC at -320 (76.2)
NV at -180 (64.3)
AZ -1,000 (90.9)
PA -180 (64.3)
WI -170 (63.0) !!!!!!!!
IA -850 (89.5)
I think tonight may be a learning experience for many on where you get your news from. What do you think?
So... now we know who the biggest threat to democracy is... I mean, we just democratically decided it, didn't we?
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Of course not. That dude is a world class loser.
Man. Going through some of these posts are very entertaining. Lot of comrades were big time wrong
Helps me to decipher who to respect and who is a complete fvcking idiot. Some of them I already knew, but there’s some new ones.
Spencer York. lol. What a fvcking idiot.
@Spencer_York is not a bad guy, he just got blinded by his own bias like the rest of us often do.
As an added tidbit, the much maligned (in this thread) Atlas Intel was perhaps the most accurate in this election.
Moreover, the so-called Polymarket whale was indeed one guy, named Théo, who made four bets using four different accounts. Turns out, he's not just some whack-job, but a serous analytic thinker. He saw the mainstream polls and surmised they were still getting it all wrong. He went to polls the rely heavily on "neighbor polling"--that is, asking respondents "who do you think your neighbor will vote for?". This allows the respondent to project their vote on their neighbor and avoid the respondent fear error. Anyway, our 'whale', Théo, bet not just that Trump would win, but that he'd also win the popular vote. He walked away with a cool 46-million-dollar payday on his 30-million-dollar bet. Oh yeah, it was all in crypto and therefore TAX FREE. My man.
Are we having fun yet?
He’s not a man, that’s the first clue he won’t.
Do the cabinet picks give you confidence in Trump?
my.clevelandclinic.org
Alice in Wonderland Syndrome (AIWS): Symptoms & Treatment
Alice in Wonderland syndrome is a condition that disrupts how you perceive your body or things around you. It’s rare, and the underlying cause is usually treatable.
my.clevelandclinic.org
Selzer announced she’s retiring after her garbage ass poll. Pretty clear she was bought off and knew her credibility would be ruined going forward. No time to look, but there were some libs totally fooled by her fake poll ITT.
Many of these posts are equivalent to Junior High School arguments with name calling and cliques that Trump epitomizes. Civility seems to have jumped off the rails with much of today's society and the power of social media to enrage participants and distort views in a world facing potentially catastrophic problems. We all have opinions shaped throughout our lives from birth.
Hearing comments like - so in so lives in his own head - seems puzzling to me. Is that not true for all of us unless we are brain dead?
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Today's society? What little civility that remained in our society ended with social media. Neither side can claim victory in this argument.
Totally agree.
Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds
New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.
Interesting article. If you are into books about the science of the way we think and the nuances of intuitive deduction, "Thinking Fast and Thinking Slow" is an excellent book. It's surprisingly easy to read for an otherwise weighty topic.Totally agree.
Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds
New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason.www.newyorker.com
In this book, the author describes reason as hard (thinking slow); and intuition as easy (thinking fast). Intuition is what you are using when I ask you, what is 2 +2? You don't 'reason' your way to the solution, you know it intuitively (that is, by instinct). Conversely, if I ask you, what is 7,396 / 2,800,067, you are probably going to decline to play along any further. This is because you will be required to break the problem down and reason your way to the solution, and reason often requires too much brain power--or at least more than most are willing to expend for little or nothing in return.
