Let's talk polls and betting odds

[dpic73]

 

[Dadar]

Some are, no doubt, but where is the vote volume going to come from? Biden carried this state by less than 82k votes, or about 1.2% over Trump. Curious if you have anything more to go on other than just a feeling?

Yes, people here & elsewhere I talk to

 

[dpic73]

CNN just reported that the most important issue per exit polling is Democracy 👀

Uh-oh

 

[leetp]

An analysis of voter turnout from Newsweek:
Arizona
2.5M voted early; 797k were from registered Dems; over 1.02M from Repubs

Georgia
4.0M voted early; 92 counties exceeded 50% turnout; no party affiliation given (jerks )

Michigan
3.3M voted early; no party affiliation given (also jerks)

Nevada
543K voted early; 247,263 were Republicans vs 150,160 Democrats

Tar Holes
4.46M voted early (57% of the state's registered voters); no affiliation given (super jerks)

Pennsyltucky
1.8M already voted; Dems lead 1.04M to 623k Repubs (still a significant increase by Repubs over 2020 against a significant decrease by Dems)

Wisky
1.5M voted; no party breakout; double super jerks)

How is voter turnout so far in US election? A look at the 7 swing states

Here's how early voting stands in seven key battleground states ahead of the election.

www.newsweek.com

 

[firegiver]

Lol at you thinking 90+% of all abortions are life saving.

Honestly, of the 1million abortions a year, how many do you and your brothers, okclem / dicpic / etc, think are live saving medical?

idk, and I'd have to be a moron before legislating or court ruling away that right without understanding the far reaching impacts. Wouldn't I?
Dog catches car, the Trump Dobbs story.

 

[letsgocu]

idk, and I'd have to be a moron before legislating or court ruling away that right without understanding the far reaching impacts. Wouldn't I?
Dog catches car, the Trump Dobbs story.

Lol at your idk response. You know good and well that those life saving situations represents a very small number of abortions.

Heck. There weee abortion trucks at the DNC ready and eager to abort babies. They must have anticipated a lot of life saving procedures inside those trucks…..

Give me a damn break.

 

[firegiver]

Lol at your idk response. You know good and well that those life saving situations represents a very small number of abortions.

Heck. There weee abortion trucks at the DNC ready and eager to abort babies. They must have anticipated a lot of life saving procedures inside those trucks…..

Give me a damn break.

If we were sitting down face to face, I'd help you understand my perspective. You would understand my issues with how things have transpired. Now we could talk about abortion and how the government plays that role, at the end though my position is: We don't need the government deciding this, if you don't want an abortion, don't get one.

 

[leetp]

The latest betting market pull is much the same as the last few, but there has been some volatilely in between. For ex, polymarket has dipped below 57% for Trump at one point before rebounding sharply. In fact, as I type is has already shot up to 64.7% now 67%!

​	08:15 AM​	​	10:45 AM​	​	04:30 PM​	​	07:30 PM​	​
​	Trump​	Harris​	Trump​	Harris​	Trump​	Harris​	Trump​	Harris​
BetOnline​	63.9​	39.2​	64.9​	30.8​	62.3​	30.8​	63.0​	41.7​
Betfair​	61.4​	39.1​	61.7​	38.5​	61.7​	38.5​	62.1​	38.8​
Betsson​	60.6​	42.7​	60.6​	42.7​	63.6​	42.7​	63.6​	41.7​
Bovada​	61.5​	41.7​	62.5​	42.7​	62.3​	42.7​	62.3​	42.6​
Bwin​	62.3​	42.6​	62.3​	42.6​	62.3​	42.6​	62.3​	42.6​
Points Bet​	64.5​	40.8​	64.5​	40.8​	64.5​	40.8​	64.5​	40.8​
Polymarket​	61.1​	39.1​	62.7​	37.3​	61.1​	37.3​	61.8​	38.4​
Smarkets​	60.2​	39.7​	60.6​	39.1​	60.6​	39.1​	61.4​	39.1​
Average​	61.9​	40.6​	62.5​	39.3​	62.3​	39.3​	62.6​	40.7​

 

[leetp]

Batson just went to -222 for Trump (68.9%)!

 

[leetp]

Most betting markets are pushing Trump to 70%...but PA remains tight. Not sure what there are seeing. Anyone got any ideas?

 

[leetp]

Boom! SC called for Trump. I <3 SC

EDIT: Sorry...I won't do that anymore in this thread. I value everyone's analysis. Please post up is any of you see something.

 

[leetp]

Wow...what a difference 30 minutes make....

​	07:30 PM​	​	08:00 PM​	​
​	Trump​	Harris​	Trump​	Harris​
BetOnline​	69.2​	35.1​	69.2​	35.1​
Betfair​	62.1​	38.8​	68.0​	32.8​
Betsson​	68.9​	36.4​	70.4​	35.1​
Bovada​	62.3​	42.6​	71.4​	32.3​
Bwin​	62.3​	42.6​	69.2​	34.5​
Points Bet​	64.5​	40.8​	72.5​	33.3​
Polymarket​	61.8​	38.4​	70.6​	29.7​
Smarkets​	61.4​	39.1​	69.0​	30.8​
Average​	64.1​	39.2​	70.0​	32.9​

 

[leetp]

Wow...FL already called.

 

[leetp]

Are any of yall getting these exit poll returns? If half of these are true, how can this race be close?

 

[leetp]

Bovada has GA at -700 (87.5%) Trump

 

[leetp]

For Trump on Bovada:
NC at -320 (76.2)
NV at -180 (64.3)
AZ -1,000 (90.9)
PA -180 (64.3)
WI -170 (63.0) !!!!!!!!
IA -850 (89.5)