Let's talk polls and betting odds
- Thread starter leetp
- Start date
Did you check that gap against past elections? There's probably not anything remarkable about it.
The poly market whale has bet most of his liquid net worth, $30mm on Trump.
He is a ex NYC trader who currently lives in France.
He made most of his money going all in on mispriced trades
- He thinks Trump is still being under polled.
- He doesn’t think pollsters have fixed their polling from 2020
- he thinks there is still a shy Trump vote not being accounted for.
- He thinks Trump wins easily.
- It doesn’t matter cuz we will know the answer in 3 days, but thought I would share the article.
www.zerohedge.com
He is a ex NYC trader who currently lives in France.
He made most of his money going all in on mispriced trades
- He thinks Trump is still being under polled.
- He doesn’t think pollsters have fixed their polling from 2020
- he thinks there is still a shy Trump vote not being accounted for.
- He thinks Trump wins easily.
- It doesn’t matter cuz we will know the answer in 3 days, but thought I would share the article.
Polymarket's Trump-Bullish Whale Speaks Out: "Absolutely No Political Agenda" | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Someone posted about this earlier. He may have been a whale in the early part of the market, but it's a three plus billion dollar market right now. $30 million against $3B isn't squat. It's equivalent of $1 against $100.The poly market whale has bet most of his liquid net worth, $30mm on Trump.
He is a ex NYC trader who currently lives in France.
He made most of his money going all in on mispriced trades
- He thinks Trump is still being under polled.
- He doesn’t think pollsters have fixed their polling from 2020
- he thinks there is still a shy Trump vote not being accounted for.
- He thinks Trump wins easily.
- It doesn’t matter cuz we will know the answer in 3 days, but thought I would share the article.
Polymarket's Trump-Bullish Whale Speaks Out: "Absolutely No Political Agenda" | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Still, to liquidate everything and go all in on that bet is just wild.
Polymarket is tanking by the minute.... Now 57/43 DJT/KH.... Check that, literally just went to 56/44 😳
All that just happened literally within the last 8 minutes.
All that just happened literally within the last 8 minutes.
I’ll give you a hint - it will be 50-50 at some point before Tuesday.
It’s pretty much useless at this point.
Trump traded up to like 75 or 80 on election night in 2020, before settling at 0.
Have fun watching it, but don’t get too wrapped up in any of it. Mostly speculation.
Yeah, it like watching a game that lasts 36 hours.
The main reason I talk about it here though is to find out if there are any triggers leading to the volatility. In this case, I know of none. I did read where the "White Supremacist in Khakis" just came out and endorsed Harris. I'm sure the media will bestow a new moniker upon him now.
she is one of the most respected pollsters in the entire industry. that's not hype. she has that kind of reputation and is regarded as the best, most correct Iowa pollster in recent memory.
yes that's why this is shocking. I'm sure you're familiar with Frank Luntz and know he is not a Dem operative to put it lightly.
doesn't mean her info will ultimately prove true, but her sterling reputation is the reason so many people are taking note. and even if Trump wins closely, it could suggest voting patterns that will benefit Harris in other states.
I do know Luntz and he's a quack....so bad even Fox ran him off...him and his stupid focus groups. But I don't necessarily think he's wrong here
I'm not a betting man, but I'll totally throw a dollar down on Trump taking Iowa. Book it.
Trump was the same guy. Look at the old videos. He was saying the same stuff back then that he says now.
Latest poll drop is super favorable for Trump... But too busy watching our team get b**** slapped by a sorry ass Louisville team to post up a serious analysis.... We'll have to give it to you guys later
He categorically was not. You get dumber by the day.
Trump in 1999: ‘I am Very Pro-Choice’
On MTP in 1999, Donald Trump explains his views on certain social issues including same-sex marriage, gays in the military and abortion.
www.nbcnews.com
Wrong again
Trump in 1999: ‘I am Very Pro-Choice’
On MTP in 1999, Donald Trump explains his views on certain social issues including same-sex marriage, gays in the military and abortion.
www.nbcnews.com
Do a little bit more work man. That's just one topic.Wrong again
Trump in 1999: ‘I am Very Pro-Choice’
On MTP in 1999, Donald Trump explains his views on certain social issues including same-sex marriage, gays in the military and abortion.
Saturday Polls | | Trump | Harris | |
Iowa | Des Moines Register | Trump 44 | Harris 47 | |
Iowa | Emerson | Trump 54 | Harris 45 | Trump+9 |
Wisconsin | Atlas Intel | Trump 50 | Harris 49 | Trump+1 |
Michigan | Atlas Intel | Trump 50 | Harris 48 | Trump+2 |
Michigan | Rasmussen Reports | Trump 48 | Harris 49 | Harris+1 |
Pennsylvania | Atlas Intel | Trump 50 | Harris 48 | Trump+2 |
North Carolina | Atlas Intel | Trump 51 | Harris 47 | Trump+4 |
Georgia | Atlas Intel | Trump 50 | Harris 48 | Trump+2 |
Arizona | Atlas Intel | Trump 52 | Harris 46 | Trump+6 |
Nevada | Atlas Intel | Trump 52 | Harris 46 | Trump+6 |
National | Atlas Intel | Trump 50 | Harris 48 | Trump+2 |
- TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!
- Arizona: Trump 49% – Harris 45%; Gallego up by 5 Over Lake
- Georgia: Harris 48% – Trump 47%
- Michigan: Trump 47% – Harris 47%; Slotkin Leads Rogers 48-46%
- North Carolina: Harris 48% – Trump 46%; Stein Leads by 17 Points
- Nevada: Harris 49% – Trump 46%; Rosen by 9 Over Brown
- Pennsylvania: Presidential Vote Tied; Casey 50% – McCormick 45%
- Wisconsin: Harris 49% – Trump 47%; Baldwin 50% – Hovde 46%
Sunday Polls | | Trump | Harris | |
Pennsylvania | NY Times/Siena | Trump 48 | Harris 48 | Tie |
Michigan | NY Times/Siena | Trump 47 | Harris 47 | Tie |
Arizona | NY Times/Siena | Trump 49 | Harris 45 | Trump+4 |
Nevada | NY Times/Siena | Trump 46 | Harris 49 | Harris+3 |
Georgia | NY Times/Siena | Trump 47 | Harris 48 | Harris+1 |
North Carolina | NY Times/Siena | Trump 46 | Harris 48 | Harris+2 |
National | ABC News/Ipsos* | Trump 46 | Harris 49 | Harris+3 |
National | Emerson | Trump 49 | Harris 49 | Tie |
Wisconsin | NY Times/Siena | Trump 47 | Harris 49 | Harris+2 |
Latest betting odds:
| 9:10 AM Thurs | | 8:45 AM Sun | |
| Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris |
BetOnline | 65.5 | 37.7 | 58.0 | 45.9 |
Betfair | 62.9 | 37.3 | 55.3 | 45.1 |
Betsson | 66.7 | 38.5 | 57.1 | 46.5 |
Bovada | 66.7 | 37.0 | 55.6 | 48.8 |
Bwin | 66.7 | 38.5 | 55.6 | 47.6 |
Points Bet | 65.4 | 40.0 | 57.1 | 47.6 |
Polymarket | 65.0 | 34.9 | 55.5 | 44.6 |
Smarkets | 61.7 | 38.2 | 54.4 | 46.7 |
Average | 65.1 | 37.8 | 56.1 | 46.6 |
Since when can a dummy judge dumb?He categorically was not. You get dumber by the day.
Trump in 1999: ‘I am Very Pro-Choice’
On MTP in 1999, Donald Trump explains his views on certain social issues including same-sex marriage, gays in the military and abortion.
