Let's talk polls and betting odds

[Spencer_York]

Do you really think they react to that in a bigger way than when it splashed for the first time where he overcame big odds to beat and arguably better candidate in Hillary? That really feels like a stretch to me.

Well this is specifically among younger voters. A lot of them were in HS (or younger) when Access Hollywood broke in 2016. While Hillary is arguably better than Kamala in terms of career accomplishments (though I would say not by that much), she was an historically unpopular candidate. People didn't like her. And Access Hollywood was hurting Trump but then the Comey Letter dropped right before the election and that sunk her

 

[leetp]

Well this is specifically among younger voters. A lot of them were in HS (or younger) when Access Hollywood broke in 2016. While Hillary is arguably better than Kamala in terms of career accomplishments (though I would say not by that much), she was an historically unpopular candidate. People didn't like her. And Access Hollywood was hurting Trump but then the Comey Letter dropped right before the election and that sunk her

You think more highly of young twenty-somethings than I do. I just don't see them caring as much about those things at that age.

 

[leetp]

@Spencer_York how do you see the poor jobs numbers playing out?

For the record, I don't assign much blame (or credit) one way or the other over jobs numbers. I think the only way this affects a given candidate is the media talking about it like the president has some direct control over it.

Still, it has been thing that has been shown to move the margin in an election.

 

[DW4_2016]

Him pulling up to the media in a garbage truck today was the ultimate troll

That’s what I look for in a presidential candidate, good trolling. What has the republican party become?

 

[leetp]

That’s what I look for in a presidential candidate, good trolling. What has the republican party become?

Stop for a minute and give the dude credit for his epic troll. And you can go back to hating him. No one will think any less of you.

 

[Spencer_York]

Stop for a minute and give the dude credit for his epic troll. And you can go back to hating him. No one will think any less of you.

I've heard the garbage truck thing is actually not working in his favor but depends on the source probably

 

[Spencer_York]

Kamala ahead on predictit, Trump continues to plummet on polymarket, below 60% now

 

[dpic73]

SIAP the Marist Pennsylvania poll

• Harris receives the support of 50% of Pennsylvania likely voters to 48% for Trump. In September, Harris (49%) and Trump (49%) tied. Among likely voters with a candidate preference for President, 89% say they strongly support their choice of candidate. 90% of Trump’s backers, compared with 87% of Harris’ supporters, say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
• There has been a 19-point shift among independents, with Harris (55%) overtaking Trump (40%) for the lead. In early September, Trump (49%) edged Harris (45%) by 4 points among independents. Harris does better among independents than President Joe Biden (52%) did in 2020. Trump is underperforming the 44% he received four years ago.
• Harris (63%) outpaces Trump (35%) among likely voters who say they have already voted. Trump (54%) receives majority support against Harris (44%) among those who have yet to vote.
• Trump (51%) edges Harris (47%) among white voters. However, Trump falls short of the 57% he garnered among white voters in 2020. Harris, though, does better among this group than Biden (42%) in 2020. Among Black voters, Harris (84%) outpaces Trump (16%). Still, she underperforms the 92% Biden support received among Black voters four years ago.
• The gender gap has narrowed to 12 points from 22 points in September. Harris (53%) leads Trump (45%) by 8 points among women. Among men, Trump (51%) edges Harris (47%) by 4 points. Trump carried men by 11 points in 2020, and Biden carried women by the same margin.
• Harris (55%) receives majority support among Gen Z and Millennials and among the Silent/Greatest Generation (54%). Trump has majority support among Gen X (51%). Baby Boomers divide (50% for Trump to 48% for Harris).

Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More

The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state, and national level.

maristpoll.marist.edu

 

[Spencer_York]

@Spencer_York how do you see the poor jobs numbers playing out?

For the record, I don't assign much blame (or credit) one way or the other over jobs numbers. I think the only way this affects a given candidate is the media talking about it like the president has some direct control over it.

Still, it has been thing that has been shown to move the margin in an election.

Could you elaborate on the poor jobs numbers? All I have seen is that the job numbers are relatively good and the most recent one was strong. Could be wrong though.

The economy should be the strength of Trump's message, I think I have said that before. A lot of voters are upset about inflation. However, Trump has squandered his lead there by mainly focusing on anti-trans stuff. I'd have to look up the specifics but some of the swing state or demographic polling is showing that Kamala has nearly erased, completely erased (so tied), or taken the lead on "who do you trust more with the economy" question in certain polls.That will be a major part of the election

 

[Spencer_York]

Nate Silver is now saying he thinks the polls are bogus and that pollsters are herding their polls to a specific result (a virtual toss up). He said there is a 1 in 9.5 TRILLION chance for all of these swing state polls to be this close.

 

[gcsoccer16]

That’s what I look for in a presidential candidate, good trolling. What has the republican party become?

It was funny. What's ironic is it doesn't really matter what you look for in a presidential candidate. Your party didn't even allow you a say or a vote. They just anoint the person.

Oh the irony. See you next week @DW4_2016 !

 

[scotchtiger]

Well this is specifically among younger voters. A lot of them were in HS (or younger) when Access Hollywood broke in 2016. While Hillary is arguably better than Kamala in terms of career accomplishments (though I would say not by that much), she was an historically unpopular candidate. People didn't like her. And Access Hollywood was hurting Trump but then the Comey Letter dropped right before the election and that sunk her

Hillary was orders of magnitude smarter and more capable than Kamala. That part isn’t close. Both are unlikable. Hillary had far more history to support the dislike. Kamala is just immediately terrible to most people.