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Let's talk polls and betting odds

Do you really think they react to that in a bigger way than when it splashed for the first time where he overcame big odds to beat and arguably better candidate in Hillary? That really feels like a stretch to me.
Well this is specifically among younger voters. A lot of them were in HS (or younger) when Access Hollywood broke in 2016. While Hillary is arguably better than Kamala in terms of career accomplishments (though I would say not by that much), she was an historically unpopular candidate. People didn't like her. And Access Hollywood was hurting Trump but then the Comey Letter dropped right before the election and that sunk her
 
Well this is specifically among younger voters. A lot of them were in HS (or younger) when Access Hollywood broke in 2016. While Hillary is arguably better than Kamala in terms of career accomplishments (though I would say not by that much), she was an historically unpopular candidate. People didn't like her. And Access Hollywood was hurting Trump but then the Comey Letter dropped right before the election and that sunk her
You think more highly of young twenty-somethings than I do. I just don't see them caring as much about those things at that age.
 
@Spencer_York how do you see the poor jobs numbers playing out?

For the record, I don't assign much blame (or credit) one way or the other over jobs numbers. I think the only way this affects a given candidate is the media talking about it like the president has some direct control over it.

Still, it has been thing that has been shown to move the margin in an election.
 
Stop for a minute and give the dude credit for his epic troll. And you can go back to hating him. No one will think any less of you.
I've heard the garbage truck thing is actually not working in his favor but depends on the source probably
 
SIAP the Marist Pennsylvania poll

  • Harris receives the support of 50% of Pennsylvania likely voters to 48% for Trump. In September, Harris (49%) and Trump (49%) tied. Among likely voters with a candidate preference for President, 89% say they strongly support their choice of candidate. 90% of Trump’s backers, compared with 87% of Harris’ supporters, say they are firmly committed to their choice of candidate.
  • There has been a 19-point shift among independents, with Harris (55%) overtaking Trump (40%) for the lead. In early September, Trump (49%) edged Harris (45%) by 4 points among independents. Harris does better among independents than President Joe Biden (52%) did in 2020. Trump is underperforming the 44% he received four years ago.
  • Harris (63%) outpaces Trump (35%) among likely voters who say they have already voted. Trump (54%) receives majority support against Harris (44%) among those who have yet to vote.
  • Trump (51%) edges Harris (47%) among white voters. However, Trump falls short of the 57% he garnered among white voters in 2020. Harris, though, does better among this group than Biden (42%) in 2020. Among Black voters, Harris (84%) outpaces Trump (16%). Still, she underperforms the 92% Biden support received among Black voters four years ago.
  • The gender gap has narrowed to 12 points from 22 points in September. Harris (53%) leads Trump (45%) by 8 points among women. Among men, Trump (51%) edges Harris (47%) by 4 points. Trump carried men by 11 points in 2020, and Biden carried women by the same margin.
  • Harris (55%) receives majority support among Gen Z and Millennials and among the Silent/Greatest Generation (54%). Trump has majority support among Gen X (51%). Baby Boomers divide (50% for Trump to 48% for Harris).
 
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@Spencer_York how do you see the poor jobs numbers playing out?

For the record, I don't assign much blame (or credit) one way or the other over jobs numbers. I think the only way this affects a given candidate is the media talking about it like the president has some direct control over it.

Still, it has been thing that has been shown to move the margin in an election.
Could you elaborate on the poor jobs numbers? All I have seen is that the job numbers are relatively good and the most recent one was strong. Could be wrong though.

The economy should be the strength of Trump's message, I think I have said that before. A lot of voters are upset about inflation. However, Trump has squandered his lead there by mainly focusing on anti-trans stuff. I'd have to look up the specifics but some of the swing state or demographic polling is showing that Kamala has nearly erased, completely erased (so tied), or taken the lead on "who do you trust more with the economy" question in certain polls.That will be a major part of the election
 
Nate Silver is now saying he thinks the polls are bogus and that pollsters are herding their polls to a specific result (a virtual toss up). He said there is a 1 in 9.5 TRILLION chance for all of these swing state polls to be this close.
 
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That’s what I look for in a presidential candidate, good trolling. What has the republican party become?
It was funny. What's ironic is it doesn't really matter what you look for in a presidential candidate. Your party didn't even allow you a say or a vote. They just anoint the person.

Oh the irony. See you next week @DW4_2016 !
 
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Well this is specifically among younger voters. A lot of them were in HS (or younger) when Access Hollywood broke in 2016. While Hillary is arguably better than Kamala in terms of career accomplishments (though I would say not by that much), she was an historically unpopular candidate. People didn't like her. And Access Hollywood was hurting Trump but then the Comey Letter dropped right before the election and that sunk her

Hillary was orders of magnitude smarter and more capable than Kamala. That part isn’t close. Both are unlikable. Hillary had far more history to support the dislike. Kamala is just immediately terrible to most people.
 
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Could you elaborate on the poor jobs numbers? All I have seen is that the job numbers are relatively good and the most recent one was strong. Could be wrong though.

The economy should be the strength of Trump's message, I think I have said that before. A lot of voters are upset about inflation. However, Trump has squandered his lead there by mainly focusing on anti-trans stuff. I'd have to look up the specifics but some of the swing state or demographic polling is showing that Kamala has nearly erased, completely erased (so tied), or taken the lead on "who do you trust more with the economy" question in certain polls.That will be a major part of the election
Here it is on Guardian of all places:
US adds only 12,000 jobs in October in final report before election https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/01/us-october-jobs-report?CMP=share_btn_url
 
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As Johnny Rotten once asked...do you ever get the feeling you've been swindled?

Don't be so quick to suspend disbelief. The Presidential election on Polymarket is at $2,893,497,481. If four whales make up 25% as the X post claims, then that's over 700 million. The guy being quoted said he wagered 30M...which is just 1% of the almost $2.9 billion on polymarket.

Funny story tho.

Anyway, polymarket is tanking, but most others are not nearly as volatile:
9:10 AM Thurs​
10:38 PM Fri
Trump
Harris
Trump
Harris
BetOnline​
65.5​
37.7​
61.5​
42.6​
Betfair​
62.9​
37.3​
60.2​
40.0​
Betsson​
66.7​
38.5​
62.5​
41.7​
Bovada​
66.7​
37.0​
62.3​
42.6​
Bwin​
66.7​
38.5​
62.3​
42.0​
Points Bet​
65.4​
40.0​
64.5​
40.8​
Polymarket​
65.0​
34.9​
58.1​
41.5​
Smarkets​
61.7​
38.2​
58.1​
41.3​
Average
65.1
37.8
61.2
41.6
 
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Clinton was far-right MAGA Republican by today's standards. Serously.

Per a quick google search: "what was clinton's platform in 1992"

"Bill Clinton also focused on the economy in 1992 due to the recession and ran on school choice, balanced budget amendment, opposition to illegal immigration and support for NAFTA"
Correct. Dems got routed in the mid terms by Newt Gingrich and his contract with America and Clinton appeared dead in the water. He then turned hard conservative and won another term.
 
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NEW: Mark Halperin says his sources in both parties say Kamala Harris is not doing well in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

Halperin says one Democrat source and two Republican sources say they would be “somewhere between surprised and shocked” if Harris won Wisconsin.

“It remains the base case that VP Harris is unlikely to win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona.”

“If she doesn't win those three states she must sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin…”

“As I said, my reporting is that she's in trouble in Wisconsin.”

“This is based on three sources, two Republicans, one Democrat, all of whom know the state quite well, and all of whom told me today the same version of they would be somewhere between surprised and shocked if Kamala Harris won Wisconsin.”

Vote, and bring one friend or family member with you!

Video: @2waytvapp
 
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NEW: Mark Halperin says his sources in both parties say Kamala Harris is not doing well in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

Halperin says one Democrat source and two Republican sources say they would be “somewhere between surprised and shocked” if Harris won Wisconsin.

“It remains the base case that VP Harris is unlikely to win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona.”

“If she doesn't win those three states she must sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin…”

“As I said, my reporting is that she's in trouble in Wisconsin.”

“This is based on three sources, two Republicans, one Democrat, all of whom know the state quite well, and all of whom told me today the same version of they would be somewhere between surprised and shocked if Kamala Harris won Wisconsin.”

Vote, and bring one friend or family member with you!

Video: @2waytvapp
Halperin is a hack who can’t get a job for a reason
 
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Interesting fact: Trump won white women in 2020 by 7 points.

So when you read about high female voter turnout, that's not necessarily good for Kamala depending on where those votes are coming from. Especially when it seems AA turnout is low, and Biden won AA women by 90 points (will be lower this time).
 
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Interesting fact: Trump won white women in 2020 by 7 points.

So when you read about high female voter turnout, that's not necessarily good for Kamala depending on where those votes are coming from. Especially when it seems AA turnout is low, and Biden won AA women by 90 points (will be lower this time).
Yeah, wow. I didn't recall that

PP_2021.06.30_validated-voters_00-02.png
 
Remember the past 24+ hours in the betting markets, it seems every time Trump dips into the '50s he rebounds quickly. 🤔
 
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