Let's talk polls and betting odds

[leetp]

Yeah she's a terrible candidate. The establishment dems are simply relying on the Never Trump support. Nobody who is being objective believes she is the best candidate or brings in a lot of enthusiasm. People are overwhelmingly voting for her because the establishment anointed her the candidate and they simply do not like Trump. The same people would vote for a bag of baseballs before voting for Trump.

They could have went in several different directions including allowing the party to vote for their candidate but they didn't. The establishment chose her because she is easily steered and controlled. She has no real strong beliefs or convictions. If nothing else, the past month we have seen that as her poll numbers and odds dropped.

I just posted an update from the major markets. At worst, Trump is 61.7/-160. At best, Harris is 40/150 (paradoxically this also at a site where Trump is near highest at 65.4/-190 [Points Bet]).

 

[Spencer_York]

That was one of the angles I was perusing with @Spencer_York ...if poll calculus were underestimating Harris support, wouldn't we be seeing that in early voting? Thus far, there has been a surge in GOP voting nearly across the board--and certainly nation-wide. To Mr. York's point on this, does this pull from election day votes? Maybe, but voting early allows more opportunity to vote, which "should" increase total votes. With GOP appreciably outperforming prior elections on early and mail-in voting, this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast.

I think the GOP has mainly only surged in in-person early voting. Look at Nevada. A lot of GOPers are voting early in person but there are a lot of Dems voting by mail early too. Generally EV makes your ED turnout lower. In 2020 the GOP pushed ED voting and the Dems pushed EV, meaning the Dems had way less of the percentage on ED. We don't know that this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast. We won't know that until after Election Day.

 

[gcsoccer16]

I think the GOP has mainly only surged in in-person early voting. Look at Nevada. A lot of GOPers are voting early in person but there are a lot of Dems voting by mail early too. Generally EV makes your ED turnout lower. In 2020 the GOP pushed ED voting and the Dems pushed EV, meaning the Dems had way less of the percentage on ED. We don't know that this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast. We won't know that until after Election Day.

Republicans will still get off work and go Vote on election day in huge numbers as they always do.

 

[leetp]

I think the GOP has mainly only surged in in-person early voting. Look at Nevada. A lot of GOPers are voting early in person but there are a lot of Dems voting by mail early too. Generally EV makes your ED turnout lower. In 2020 the GOP pushed ED voting and the Dems pushed EV, meaning the Dems had way less of the percentage on ED. We don't know that this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast. We won't know that until after Election Day.

What you say sounds reasonable. And, yes, GOP'ers still have an aversion to mail-in voting (I certainly do). And as I said, PA is mail-in only...no in-person EV.

Still, in general, a larger window to vote should lead to more total votes--even if only nominal. And even just a nominal increase for GOP is not ideal for Dems.

There is another poll I often cite when talking demographics, and that is the long running Gallup poll on political ideology (Conversative vs. Liberal vs. Independent). Conservatives and Moderates are roughly split at 36 and 37% of the country. Libs makeup 25%. My takeaway from this, getting a greater percentage nationwide voting is an advantage for GOP. To your point, Dems get-out-the-vote in dense urban areas that go 85-90% Dems is the only reason Dems every win a nation-wide election. In an admittedly very shallow interpretation, Dems should never win a nation-wide election.

 

[fatpiggy]

 

[fatpiggy]

That was one of the angles I was perusing with @Spencer_York ...if poll calculus were underestimating Harris support, wouldn't we be seeing that in early voting? Thus far, there has been a surge in GOP voting nearly across the board--and certainly nation-wide. To Mr. York's point on this, does this pull from election day votes? Maybe, but voting early allows more opportunity to vote, which "should" increase total votes. With GOP appreciably outperforming prior elections on early and mail-in voting, this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast.

In PA, however, GOP does lag Dems in mail-in balloting (there is no in-person early voting in PA). What I am still trying to ascertain is if the GOP is performing better, even if that are not outperforming the Dems.

I just don’t see how she over polls.

She is a lackluster candidate that does not bring any authentic enthusiasm.

She is a horrible, horrible candidate. That should be expected when you have an appointing instead of an election.

Does anyone really believe people are going to get off their ass to vote for a cackling hyena? lol, not happening.

 

[gcsoccer16]

I just don’t see how she over polls.

She is a lackluster candidate that does not bring any authentic enthusiasm.

She is a horrible, horrible candidate. That should be expected when you have an appointing instead of an election.

Does anyone really believe people are going to get off their ass to vote for a cackling hyena? lol, not happening.

Correct. There is a reason why she was one of the first candidates to drop out 4 years ago in the primary. A terrible candidate. It's all about the Never Trumpers. That's why we have seen the divisive tone and rhetoric recently, especially from main stream media and other arms of the democratic party. The restart of the comparisons to Hitler is so despicable. Such a slap in the face to the families that were affected by the holocaust. Legacy media is on a downward path and Bezos knows it.

 

[fatpiggy]

Correct. There is a reason why she was one of the first candidates to drop out 4 years ago in the primary. A terrible candidate. It's all about the Never Trumpers. That's why we have seen the divisive tone and rhetoric recently, especially from main stream media and other arms of the democratic party. The restart of the comparisons to Hitler is so despicable. Such a slap in the face to the families that were affected by the holocaust. Legacy media is on a downward path and Bezos knows it.

I personally know at least 10 deep blue Jewish democrats voting for Trump. They don’t like how democrats treat the Jews and Israel.

You will see a large lurch to the right among black voters and Jewish voters. The blacks are pissed that immigrants are taking dollars that traditionally go to their neighborhoods.

 

[Clemtron]

Fvck you, nazi

grow up

 

[leetp]

Here are some of the latest polls:

Race​	Poll​	Results​	​	Spread
National​	TIPP​	Trump 48​	Harris 48​	​	​	​	​	Tie​
Michigan​	Washington Post​	Harris 47​	Trump 46​	​	​	​	​	Harris+1​
Michigan​	MNS/Mitchell Research​	Harris 47​	Trump 48​	​	​	​	​	Trump+1​
Pennsylvania​	FOX News​	Trump 50​	Harris 49​	​	​	​	​	Trump+1​
Pennsylvania​	Quinnipiac​	Trump 49​	Harris 47​	​	​	​	​	Trump+2​
Pennsylvania​	Susquehanna​	Trump 46​	Harris 46​	​	​	​	​	Tie​
Pennsylvania​	CNN*​	Trump 48​	Harris 48​	​	​	​	​	Tie​
Wisconsin​	Marquette​	Harris 50​	Trump 49​	​	​	​	​	Harris+1​
Wisconsin​	CNN*​	Harris 51​	Trump 45​	​	​	​	​	Harris+6​
Minnesota​	Rasmussen Reports​	Harris 50​	Trump 47​	​	​	​	​	Harris+3​
Michigan​	FOX News​	Harris 49​	Trump 49​	​	​	​	​	Tie​
Michigan​	USA Today/Suffolk​	Harris 47​	Trump 47​	​	​	​	​	Tie​
Michigan​	CNN​	Harris 48​	Trump 43​	Kennedy 3​	West 1​	Oliver 0​	Stein 2​	Harris+5​
North Carolina​	FOX News​	Trump 50​	Harris 49​	​	​	​	​	Trump+1​
New Hampshire​	St. Anselm​	Harris 51​	Trump 46​	​	​	​	​	Harris+5​
New Hampshire​	Rasmussen Reports​	Harris 48​	Trump 47​	​	​	​	​	Harris+1​
National​	Rasmussen Reports​	Trump 48​	Harris 46​	​	​	​	​	Trump+2​

 

[leetp]

Not sure I believe MN with Harris at only +3. If so, wow

 

[leetp]

Celebrity poll aggregator site, 538, has Trump +0.4 in PA. For the electoral college, they have Trump at 52% to Harris' 48%.