I just posted an update from the major markets. At worst, Trump is 61.7/-160. At best, Harris is 40/150 (paradoxically this also at a site where Trump is near highest at 65.4/-190 [Points Bet]).
Let's talk polls and betting odds
- Thread starter leetp
- Start date
I think the GOP has mainly only surged in in-person early voting. Look at Nevada. A lot of GOPers are voting early in person but there are a lot of Dems voting by mail early too. Generally EV makes your ED turnout lower. In 2020 the GOP pushed ED voting and the Dems pushed EV, meaning the Dems had way less of the percentage on ED. We don't know that this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast. We won't know that until after Election Day.
Republicans will still get off work and go Vote on election day in huge numbers as they always do.
What you say sounds reasonable. And, yes, GOP'ers still have an aversion to mail-in voting (I certainly do). And as I said, PA is mail-in only...no in-person EV.
Still, in general, a larger window to vote should lead to more total votes--even if only nominal. And even just a nominal increase for GOP is not ideal for Dems.
There is another poll I often cite when talking demographics, and that is the long running Gallup poll on political ideology (Conversative vs. Liberal vs. Independent). Conservatives and Moderates are roughly split at 36 and 37% of the country. Libs makeup 25%. My takeaway from this, getting a greater percentage nationwide voting is an advantage for GOP. To your point, Dems get-out-the-vote in dense urban areas that go 85-90% Dems is the only reason Dems every win a nation-wide election. In an admittedly very shallow interpretation, Dems should never win a nation-wide election.
I just don’t see how she over polls.
She is a lackluster candidate that does not bring any authentic enthusiasm.
She is a horrible, horrible candidate. That should be expected when you have an appointing instead of an election.
Does anyone really believe people are going to get off their ass to vote for a cackling hyena? lol, not happening.
Correct. There is a reason why she was one of the first candidates to drop out 4 years ago in the primary. A terrible candidate. It's all about the Never Trumpers. That's why we have seen the divisive tone and rhetoric recently, especially from main stream media and other arms of the democratic party. The restart of the comparisons to Hitler is so despicable. Such a slap in the face to the families that were affected by the holocaust. Legacy media is on a downward path and Bezos knows it.
I personally know at least 10 deep blue Jewish democrats voting for Trump. They don’t like how democrats treat the Jews and Israel.
You will see a large lurch to the right among black voters and Jewish voters. The blacks are pissed that immigrants are taking dollars that traditionally go to their neighborhoods.
Here are some of the latest polls:
Race | Poll | Results | | Spread | ||||
National | TIPP | Trump 48 | Harris 48 | | | | | Tie |
Michigan | Washington Post | Harris 47 | Trump 46 | | | | | Harris+1 |
Michigan | MNS/Mitchell Research | Harris 47 | Trump 48 | | | | | Trump+1 |
Pennsylvania | FOX News | Trump 50 | Harris 49 | | | | | Trump+1 |
Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac | Trump 49 | Harris 47 | | | | | Trump+2 |
Pennsylvania | Susquehanna | Trump 46 | Harris 46 | | | | | Tie |
Pennsylvania | CNN* | Trump 48 | Harris 48 | | | | | Tie |
Wisconsin | Marquette | Harris 50 | Trump 49 | | | | | Harris+1 |
Wisconsin | CNN* | Harris 51 | Trump 45 | | | | | Harris+6 |
Minnesota | Rasmussen Reports | Harris 50 | Trump 47 | | | | | Harris+3 |
Michigan | FOX News | Harris 49 | Trump 49 | | | | | Tie |
Michigan | USA Today/Suffolk | Harris 47 | Trump 47 | | | | | Tie |
Michigan | CNN | Harris 48 | Trump 43 | Kennedy 3 | West 1 | Oliver 0 | Stein 2 | Harris+5 |
North Carolina | FOX News | Trump 50 | Harris 49 | | | | | Trump+1 |
New Hampshire | St. Anselm | Harris 51 | Trump 46 | | | | | Harris+5 |
New Hampshire | Rasmussen Reports | Harris 48 | Trump 47 | | | | | Harris+1 |
National | Rasmussen Reports | Trump 48 | Harris 46 | | | | | Trump+2 |
Celebrity poll aggregator site, 538, has Trump +0.4 in PA. For the electoral college, they have Trump at 52% to Harris' 48%.
How many of the R early voters are simply pulling their vote forward as opposed to waiting to vote on election day? If R's who traditionally vote on election day, now vote early, they aren't there for the "normal" R election-day surge.
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Yeah Rasmussen is generally a garbage pollster.Not sure I believe MN with Harris at only +3. If so, wow
The poll I am waiting on is the Selzer Poll of Iowa. Should be out this weekend. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2, which was down from whatever he won it by in 2016 (may have been 10+ but don't remember the specific number). He was up +13 in the July poll against Biden but was only +4 Against Harris in the September Poll. Selzer is a very good pollster, they had Trump +7 in their final 2020 poll, no one else was close.
The next poll will tell us a lot. Trump +7-9 means it will be a close election like 2020. Trump by more than 9 is a very good sign for the GOP. Trump by less than 7 is a good sign for the Dems. Trump by 5 or less is a *very* good sign for the Dems.
Another interesting poll I noticed was the Fort Hayes/Docking Institute poll of Kansas this month that showed Trump only up +5 in Kansas.
Gallup recently polled enthusiasm levels and the Dems are at the highest levels of enthusiasm since 2008. Republicans lagging behind their 2012 level
Not if a ton of Republicans have already voted early, which could be happening in some states
Not sure I follow why you think Dems should never win nation-wide elections. Yes, Dems win because they turn out well in cities, which means they get a lot of people to vote for them. A big shift happening in American politics right now is the suburbs shifting increasingly leftward.What you say sounds reasonable. And, yes, GOP'ers still have an aversion to mail-in voting (I certainly do). And as I said, PA is mail-in only...no in-person EV.
Still, in general, a larger window to vote should lead to more total votes--even if only nominal. And even just a nominal increase for GOP is not ideal for Dems.
There is another poll I often cite when talking demographics, and that is the long running Gallup poll on political ideology (Conversative vs. Liberal vs. Independent). Conservatives and Moderates are roughly split at 36 and 37% of the country. Libs makeup 25%. My takeaway from this, getting a greater percentage nationwide voting is an advantage for GOP. To your point, Dems get-out-the-vote in dense urban areas that go 85-90% Dems is the only reason Dems every win a nation-wide election. In an admittedly very shallow interpretation, Dems should never win a nation-wide election.
ummm hmm.
No one can name a policy of hers that they support, but the enthusiasm is off the charts.
I think not. Don't believe that line of reasoning for one second.
I think the bigger shift is in demographics.
Blacks will vote for Trump in higher numbers than ever before. I don't think you will look at the 2024 electoral map and think that leftism is expanding. The women and men demographics are interesting. And the Republicans will make gains with the youth vote this cycle also
If anything the big shift is too the right (or more correctly, to the center). The policies like Trangenderism are getting flushed down the toilet even when Democrats have power.
