Let's talk polls and betting odds

[clemsontiger02]

The race remains too close to call. Anyone who says otherwise is pushing a narrative.

Harris holds narrow lead over Trump in 'blue wall' states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: poll

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to new polls.

www.foxnews.com

 

[leetp]

New South Carolina poll today has Trump only up +7. He's obviously going to win it but that+the Kansas poll show some slippage

"A" new South Carolina poll...
There is also "A" MN poll that shows Harris is only +3. FTR, I don't buy it or the SC poll, but which one would indicate a more dramatic slippage?

Also, there is no serious polling going on in SC. The ones I am looking at right now are from ECU and Winthrop...both of which have Trump +13 and +10, respectively... although they are somewhat dated. at 10/22 and 9/29, respectively.

 

[okclem]

Kamala blowout coming

 

[scotchtiger]

538 Updates:

• Harris now only up 1.2% in national popular vote. Biden was +8.4% in 2020.
• Trump leads in NV (+0.1), PA (+0.3), NC (+1.3), GA (+1.6) and AZ (+2.3)
• Harris leads in WI (+0.7), MI (+1.1)
• Trump wins with PA/NC/GA/AZ

 

[leetp]

538 Updates:

• Harris now only up 1.2% in national popular vote. Biden was +8.4% in 2020.
• Trump leads in NV (+0.1), PA (+0.3), NC (+1.3), GA (+1.6) and AZ (+2.3)
• Harris leads in WI (+0.7), MI (+1.1)
• Trump wins with PA/NC/GA/AZ

To be sure, Trumper's have to be uncomfortable with such slim margins (I know I am), but you'd rather have a positive slim margin than a negative slim margin. Especially went juxtaposed with past poll tendency to underrepresent Trump. Yes, pollsters have sworn they have corrected the errors of pervious polls. Yes, they could now be overestimating Trump support. Yes, that could all be crap and they've changed nothing because pollsters are arrogant elitist and think that their mostly old methods will prove correct this time.

 

[leetp]

Anyone have updated data on PA mail-in ballot numbers by party affiliation? Everything I can find on this is old. 😞

 

[Spencer_York]

One of the election betting sites (Kalshi) had Trump up 30% 48 hours ago. It has now dropped to up by 12%

 

[Spencer_York]

 

[leetp]

One of the election betting sites (Kalshi) had Trump up 30% 48 hours ago. It has now dropped to up by 12%

That's not one I track. Weird to have that much volatility though. Has to be a low money site. Some of these sites are in the billions, so hard to see a few bets driving them that wildly.

 

[leetp]

View embedded media

Only 100M in volume...can totally be driven by a big money bet or two. For comps, polymarket is at 2.9B in volume.

 

[Spencer_York]

Only 100M in volume...can totally be driven by a big money bet or two. For comps, polymarket is at 2.9B in volume.

Polymarket also has Trump going down but that has happened before. I think some of this is a pump and dump scheme by some whale investors

 

[Spencer_York]

Kamala blowout coming

I'm waiting on the Selzer poll of Iowa but the indicators are there for a potential not that close Harris win

 

[Spencer_York]

538 Updates:

• Harris now only up 1.2% in national popular vote. Biden was +8.4% in 2020.
• Trump leads in NV (+0.1), PA (+0.3), NC (+1.3), GA (+1.6) and AZ (+2.3)
• Harris leads in WI (+0.7), MI (+1.1)
• Trump wins with PA/NC/GA/AZ

I think there some garbage pollsters out there flooding the zone, especially AtlasIntel. Their methodology is suspect

 

[leetp]

Polymarket also has Trump going down but that has happened before. I think some of this is a pump and dump scheme by some whale investors

Trump is certainly trending downward as of 10/30.

Do you have any indication on what is preceding this? The Marist poll with Harris +2 in PA is the only "new" item out there that I know of...but there is also Atlas with Trump +1 and USA Today with a tie...all three having closed on 10/30.

 

[leetp]

I think there some garbage pollsters out there flooding the zone, especially AtlasIntel. Their methodology is suspect

Nate Silver uses them.

 

[scotchtiger]

I think there some garbage pollsters out there flooding the zone, especially AtlasIntel. Their methodology is suspect

Wasn't Atlas the closest pollster in 2020? Also rated a 2.7/3 by 538.

 

[Spencer_York]

Nate Silver uses them.

Nate Silver uses them because they got like one poll spot on in 2020. He has also recently said he thinks a bunch of pollsters are herding their numbers to make them mainly be tossups.

 

[scotchtiger]

 

[Spencer_York]

Wasn't Atlas the closest pollster in 2020? Also rated a 2.7/3 by 538.

The problems with Atlas are 1) they're Brazilian 2) they are doing polls solely via Instagram 3) they did a large poll, didn't like the numbers (Harris +1 or +2) and immediately did another large poll. Veteran pollsters have said this is a very flawed approach that leads to lots of cut corners 4) their founder/owner says he didn't think the Harris +1 or 2 poll was accurate because of what he thought the EV data was. Again, he's brazilian 5) he moved *both* the presidential and gubernatorial races like 4-5 points to the right. There is absolutely 0 way Mark Robinson made a 4-5 point gain in a poll within 1-2 days 6) yeah the got 1 poll right in 2020; they've also messed up big time in their polls, like their French second round polls that had Le Pen up double digits

 

[Spencer_York]

Trump is certainly trending downward as of 10/30.

Do you have any indication on what is preceding this? The Marist poll with Harris +2 in PA is the only "new" item out there that I know of...but there is also Atlas with Trump +1 and USA Today with a tie...all three having closed on 10/30.

I think people are using it as a scam and suckering pro Trump betters. It is a pump and dump scheme

 

[leetp]

Nate Silver uses them because they got like one poll spot on in 2020. He has also recently said he thinks a bunch of pollsters are herding their numbers to make them mainly be tossups.

They are a legit pollster. I am not sure how you can just call them suspect.

 

[fatpiggy]

Trump is certainly trending downward as of 10/30.

Do you have any indication on what is preceding this? The Marist poll with Harris +2 in PA is the only "new" item out there that I know of...but there is also Atlas with Trump +1 and USA Today with a tie...all three having closed on 10/30.

For all intents and purposes this is a coin flip race. Trump is a slight favorite, but that means very little. There is not THAT much difference between 45-55. Most of these polls come with a margin of error of 3-5% so they really are statistically meaningless.

So, imo you will see the markets tighten towards 50-50 on Monday night and during the day Tuesday until a winner is declared.

In the end, you have to think it comes down to voter turnout and I just dont see voters turning out for Kamala. She has no personality. She is not smart. She has no real accomplishments. And she has a horrible cackling laugh. Plus, she is really stupid. I just don't see people going out of their way to vote for her.

 

[leetp]

I think people are using it as a scam and suckering pro Trump betters. It is a pump and dump scheme

That works both ways, though.

 

[Spencer_York]

They are a legit pollster. I am not sure how you can just call them suspect.

Look at my response above for why I think they're suspect. I go off analysis I read from veteran/former pollsters who don't BS

 

[Spencer_York]

That works both ways, though.

What do you mean?

 

[leetp]

So even if you dump Atas from your calculus, you still have this:

pollster​	date​	sample​	moe​	Trump (R)​	Harris (D)​	spread​
USA Today/Suffolk​	10/27 - 10/30​	500 LV​	4.4​	49​	49​	Tie​
Atlas Intel​	10/27 - 10/30​	1738 LV​	2​	49​	48​	Trump+1​
Marist​	10/27 - 10/30​	1400 LV​	3.1​	48​	50​	Harris+2​
Quinnipiac​	10/24 - 10/28​	2186 LV​	2.1​	49​	47​	Trump+2​
CNN*​	10/23 - 10/28​	819 LV​	4.7​	48​	48​	Tie​
CBS News​	10/22 - 10/28​	1273 LV​	3.9​	49​	49​	Tie​
Emerson​	10/21 - 10/22​	860 LV​	3.3​	49​	48​	Trump+1​
Ave​	​	​	​	48.7​	48.4​	Trump+0.3​

Still...crazy tight. I can't believe the betting markets have Trump as high as they do. I don't bet, but I certainly would not be betting on either one in this case.

 

[leetp]

Look at my response above for why I think they're suspect. I go off analysis I read from veteran/former pollsters who don't BS

I saw that after I posted. Your critique of them sounds legit...and right off the redit post I just read... 🤔

 

[leetp]

What do you mean?

Perhaps I should ask what do you mean? Are you saying betters are pushing the ML up just to drop it to induce Trump betters to buy the dip?

When they do that, they also create more favorable returns for a Harris vote and drive big money to her.

When there is so much volume out there on the big sites, I just don't see it as a winnable strategy. The volatility is simply a reflection of the uncertainty.

 

[leetp]

So even if you dump Atas from your calculus, you still have this:

pollster​	date​	sample​	moe​	Trump (R)​	Harris (D)​	spread​
USA Today/Suffolk​	10/27 - 10/30​	500 LV​	4.4​	49​	49​	Tie​
Atlas Intel​	10/27 - 10/30​	1738 LV​	2​	49​	48​	Trump+1​
Marist​	10/27 - 10/30​	1400 LV​	3.1​	48​	50​	Harris+2​
Quinnipiac​	10/24 - 10/28​	2186 LV​	2.1​	49​	47​	Trump+2​
CNN*​	10/23 - 10/28​	819 LV​	4.7​	48​	48​	Tie​
CBS News​	10/22 - 10/28​	1273 LV​	3.9​	49​	49​	Tie​
Emerson​	10/21 - 10/22​	860 LV​	3.3​	49​	48​	Trump+1​
Ave​	​	​	​	48.7​	48.4​	Trump+0.3​

Still...crazy tight. I can't believe the betting markets have Trump as high as they do. I don't bet, but I certainly would not be betting on either one in this case.

I meant to take Atlas out of the table above.... doing so tightens to poll average by a tenth of a point.

Don't misread...I am not pumping this as a meaningful Trump lead. A 0.2 point lead against a 3.6 average MOE is the same as no lead at all.

In fact, any lead within the MOE is no lead at all.

If you are Harris, you are banking on a pollster over correction for past Trump underrepresentation.
If you are Trump, you are banking on continued pollster underrepresenting Trump.

 

[Spencer_York]

I saw that after I posted. Your critique of them sounds legit...and right off the redit post I just read... 🤔

They were also off by 18(!) points in the most recent Mexican presidential election

 

[Spencer_York]

I meant to take Atlas out of the table above.... doing so tightens to poll average by a tenth of a point.

Don't misread...I am not pumping this as a meaningful Trump lead. A 0.2 point lead against a 3.6 average MOE is the same as no lead at all.

In fact, any lead within the MOE is no lead at all.

If you are Harris, you are banking on a pollster over correction for past Trump underrepresentation.
If you are Trump, you are banking on continued pollster underrepresenting Trump.

Yep. One of the former pollsters I follow on Twitter has been making that point (or someone has). A ~1 point shift within the MOE is basically meaningless

 

[firegiver]

Women are voting more often than men so far. Thats a problem for Trump.

 

[Spencer_York]

Perhaps I should ask what do you mean? Are you saying betters are pushing the ML up just to drop it to induce Trump betters to buy the dip?

When they do that, they also create more favorable returns for a Harris vote and drive big money to her.

When there is so much volume out there on the big sites, I just don't see it as a winnable strategy. The volatility is simply a reflection of the uncertainty.

So what I am saying is some big time bettors are taking advantage of Trump bettors (either pro Trump or just think he will win), who, imo, are fare more numerous than Harris bettors. They dump in a ton of money to the election sites, which leads to more people (Trump bettors) dumping in money. This inflates the price of the Trump share. The initial investors are now selling off/cashing out. Trump has fallen over 6% on polymarket since last night. He's fallen 8.4% on Kalshi. Kamala is over 50 cents on predictit with Trump falling (still head)

 

[Spencer_York]

Women are voting more often than men so far. Thats a problem for Trump.

Pretty good chance the gender gap, especially among younger voters, completely swamps Trump. Not only because of Dobbs but apparently the Access Hollywood Tape has been going around in a big way among zoomers on TikTok. A lot of them are hearing it for the first time.

 

[leetp]

They were also off by 18(!) points in the most recent Mexican presidential election

Yeah, that's bad. But it's also Mexico. Could it be that they just missed misjudged the amount of cheating?

 

[leetp]

Women are voting more often than men so far. Thats a problem for Trump.

That has never not been the case since the '80s. Women pretty much always vote more than men. Women also have a leftward bent. This is well known, and the polls account for it.

 

[leetp]

So what I am saying is some big time bettors are taking advantage of Trump bettors (either pro Trump or just think he will win), who, imo, are fare more numerous than Harris bettors. They dump in a ton of money to the election sites, which leads to more people (Trump bettors) dumping in money. This inflates the price of the Trump share. The initial investors are now selling off/cashing out. Trump has fallen over 6% on polymarket since last night. He's fallen 8.4% on Kalshi. Kamala is over 50 cents on predictit with Trump falling (still head)

I guess I could see that being a thing. I didn't realize you could dump your bet like a stock.

 

[leetp]

Pretty good chance the gender gap, especially among younger voters, completely swamps Trump. Not only because of Dobbs but apparently the Access Hollywood Tape has been going around in a big way among zoomers on TikTok. A lot of them are hearing it for the first time.

Do you really think they react to that in a bigger way than when it splashed for the first time where he overcame big odds to beat and arguably better candidate in Hillary? That really feels like a stretch to me.