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Let's talk polls and betting odds

Smarkets has been the most bearish on Trump and is usually the site laging all other is odds for Trump. As of this typing (1:36 PM) they are sitting at 59.14% for Trump. Note that this changes in real-time.

Best odds and lowest commission | Smarkets betting exchange

The Smarkets betting exchange allows you to back and lay with the best betting odds and lowest commission on all major sports and politics.
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leetp said:
It's not the polls that are reported as being manipulated--that's a practical impossibility.

What's been reported is that one of the betting markets, namely polymarket, was artificially inflated by a few "whales"--i.e. big money bets coming in on Trump. Back when the bet volume was low, this may well have been the case. But polymarket's bet volume alone is over $3 billion. I don't know this for sure, but I suspect it gets pretty hard for a few individuals to drive the market at that volume--especially for such a dubious return.

Also, the numbers I post are from several of the more popular sports books. Similar to polls, having a few individuals manipulate all of these (again, to what end?) is a practically impossible.

Copy and paste from polymarket.com
$3,078,829,851 Vol.
Nov 5, 2024
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You posted an article in this thread about Nate Silver claiming the polls are being manipulated. How is it impossible to manipulate? Rasmussen has been doing it for years.
 
nytigerfan said:
You posted an article in this thread about Nate Silver claiming the polls are being manipulated. How is it impossible to manipulate? Rasmussen has been doing it for years.
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Indeed, Nate contends individual pollsters are "herding" (his word) to avoid being too wrong. But this is not polls being manipulated by an individual or small group--which is what I was contending was a virtual impossibility. This is just pollsters individually playing it safe--at least so Nate contends.
 
leetp said:
I did not realize "Johnny Maga" is on the ballet? I am pretty sure he is not on mine.
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The source was literally the Trump campaign. Campaigns have internal numbers and he shared his. Rumors are that Kammy's are in the dumps and there is a lot of internal strife within the campaign.
 
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fatpiggy said:
The source was literally the Trump campaign. Campaigns have internal numbers and he shared his. Rumors are that Kammy's are in the dumps and there is a lot of internal strife within the campaign.
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let me guess.... rumors you read on twitter? Catturd?
 
leetp said:
I did not realize "Johnny Maga" is on the ballet? I am pretty sure he is not on mine.
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He is reposting a memo released from the trump campaign. But don't get me wrong, I don't believe trump's campaign either.

We have finally found common ground.
 
Alright the Selzer poll was what I was looking for. I was thinking it would be around Trump+6 or 7 but also prepared for a huge possible range. Anything less than Trump+5 was good for Kamala. A Harris+3 is a seismic earthquake. It is a nuclear extinction level event for the Trump campaign potentially. Never in my wildest dreams did I think we would get that. Even if the margin of error hits, Trump is still winning by less than a point in a state he won by over 8 in 2020. She shows Trump losing at best, wiped out at worst, among women, older people, and older women.

Couple this with the Trump+3 Ohio poll that dropped on Saturday morning (saw a rumor of it on Friday night) and the Trump+5 Kansas poll recently, and Trump could be in major, major trouble. These are supposed to be ruby red states but Trump is fading.
 
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Dadar said:
Listened to an interesting interview with former Trump hard line supporter Anthony Scaramuchie who sees the betting thing as distorted by Trump big money supporters to discourage Harris supporters from voting.
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Yes, there have been a couple quotes from Trump spokespeople/republicans that give the game away so to speak. They view bad polls as voter suppression ie if a poll shows a candidate down then their voters won't vote. Very bizarre
 
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Spencer_York said:
Alright the Selzer poll was what I was looking for. I was thinking it would be around Trump+6 or 7 but also prepared for a huge possible range. Anything less than Trump+5 was good for Kamala. A Harris+3 is a seismic earthquake. It is a nuclear extinction level event for the Trump campaign potentially. Never in my wildest dreams did I think we would get that. Even if the margin of error hits, Trump is still winning by less than a point in a state he won by over 8 in 2020. She shows Trump losing at best, wiped out at worst, among women, older people, and older women.

Couple this with the Trump+3 Ohio poll that dropped on Saturday morning (saw a rumor of it on Friday night) and the Trump+5 Kansas poll recently, and Trump could be in major, major trouble. These are supposed to be ruby red states but Trump is fading.
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one of my politico buddies is also more hopeful about NV after this weekend. seems like she has all the momentum now.

have you dug into the firewall numbers in PA? looks pretty legit for her especially with expected independent splits and presumed Haleyesque R defectors still to come on election day.
 
tboonpickens said:
one of my politico buddies is also more hopeful about NV after this weekend. seems like she has all the momentum now.

have you dug into the firewall numbers in PA? looks pretty legit for her especially with expected independent splits and presumed Haleyesque R defectors still to come on election day.
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my friend was texting me last night before this prediction just came out fwiw...

 
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My prediction as of right now. I won't hedge my bets or anything like these pollsters. Not going to say it is 50/50 etc etc.

Could be wrong but I am going with:

Harris 325-Trump 213

Harris sweeps the swing states and flips Iowa. We see leftward movement in a bunch of what were thought to be solidly red states: Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, maybe Arkansas, maybe Missouri.

If Harris wins it is because of Dobbs. To paraphrase Carville: "It's dobbs stupid". I also think if she wins it will be because Trump squandered his lead on the economy.

If Trump wins it is because Biden stayed in too long and people were upset about the economy.
 
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tboonpickens said:
one of my politico buddies is also more hopeful about NV after this weekend. seems like she has all the momentum now.

have you dug into the firewall numbers in PA? looks pretty legit for her especially with expected independent splits and presumed Haleyesque R defectors still to come on election day.
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Haven't really paid that much attention to early vote stuff. I think there are a few tens of thousands of Haley protest voters in PA alone who will cross over. I think this will happen in a lot of states (like Selzer showed him getting only 89% of Republicans).

I feel confident in NV. The mass number of independents (automatically registered as independents) will disproportionately break for Harris imo. Harry Reid built a huge machine there and the Culinary Union will turn them out. The woman who leads the Reid machine usually doesn't say much publicly; she's smart about that. One of those people who when they talk, you listen. She's confident.
 
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nytigerfan said:
That same guy has been saying trump would win NV for a while now. Must be some real movement.
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I don't think he was saying Trump would win. Ralston doesn't release a prediction until the end. He was being pessimistic about the Dem's chances as a way to drive attention and clicks. He is independent media so he needs that in a way other media doesn't
 
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lol at all the people that believe all the polls bullshit. Take a look at the thread on the main board and people actually think Trump will win in Reagan like fashion. All you see are random Twitter screenshots. I don't see how it's not close.
 
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