Let's talk polls and betting odds

[Dadar]

Fake news: Why do we believe it? - PMC

Fake news dissemination has increased greatly in recent years, with peaks during the US presidential elections and the COVID-19 pandemic. Research has addressed fake news creation, consumption, sharing, and detection as well as approaches to ...

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[leetp]

Were the polls right? It’s complicated.
- The Hill

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4999776-polls-accuracy-2024-election/

 

[dpic73]

Were the polls right? It’s complicated.
- The Hill

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4999776-polls-accuracy-2024-election/

I thought the AtlasIntel polls were laughable until the results showed they got it right across the board. Kudos to them.

 

[TigerGrowls]

Enough data is in to offer our TOP POLLSTER RANKING for the 2024 NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE

Our standard is proximity to the Trump +1.6% winning margin (Trump 49.85% to Harris 48.27% as of Nov 26).

Note: We use how pollsters did in the “multi-candidate” (not head-to-head), and those within 1.0% of the winning margin.

1. Baris/Big Data Poll: Trump +1.7% (off 0.1%)
2. Wall Street Journal: Trump +2.0% (off 0.4%)
3. Atlas Intel: Trump +1.1% (off 0.5%)
4. Activote: Trump +1.0% (off 0.6%)
4. NY Times/Siena: Trump +1.0% (off 0.6%)
6. Rasmussen Reports: Trump +2.4% (off 0.8%)
6. Quantus Insights: Trump +0.8% (off 0.8%)
8. SoCal Strategies: Trump +0.7% (off 0.9%)

Note: Several other pollsters were within 1.5% and 2.0%, which is quite good.
Note: If a pollster only did head-to-head we used that.

If you see anything that is off let us know.

 

[scotchtiger]

View embedded media

Enough data is in to offer our TOP POLLSTER RANKING for the 2024 NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE

Our standard is proximity to the Trump +1.6% winning margin (Trump 49.85% to Harris 48.27% as of Nov 26).

Note: We use how pollsters did in the “multi-candidate” (not head-to-head), and those within 1.0% of the winning margin.

1. Baris/Big Data Poll: Trump +1.7% (off 0.1%)
2. Wall Street Journal: Trump +2.0% (off 0.4%)
3. Atlas Intel: Trump +1.1% (off 0.5%)
4. Activote: Trump +1.0% (off 0.6%)
4. NY Times/Siena: Trump +1.0% (off 0.6%)
6. Rasmussen Reports: Trump +2.4% (off 0.8%)
6. Quantus Insights: Trump +0.8% (off 0.8%)
8. SoCal Strategies: Trump +0.7% (off 0.9%)

Note: Several other pollsters were within 1.5% and 2.0%, which is quite good.
Note: If a pollster only did head-to-head we used that.

If you see anything that is off let us know.

I believe it was @Spencer_York who thought Atlas was trash. 1st in 2020 and 3rd in 2024. Not bad heh?

And we all agree 100% that Ann Selzer was thrown a bag and trashed her reputation for it.

 

[TigerGrowls]