Yah, if you just keep saying it, it becomes true....unless you ask Grok. Funny how Elon's AI even fact-checks him. 🤣
Estimating the exact number of House seats Democrats would lose if undocumented immigrants were not counted for congressional apportionment is complex and depends on multiple factors, including population estimates, state demographics, and the apportionment formula. Various studies and analyses provide insights, but claims of precise figures, especially large ones, are often exaggerated or speculative.
Key Findings from Credible Analyses:
- Pew Research Center (2020):
- If unauthorized immigrants were excluded from the 2020 census apportionment, California, Florida, and Texas would each lose one House seat, while Alabama, Minnesota, and Ohio would each gain one seat.
- This results in a net shift of three seats. In partisan terms, the impact is roughly neutral: California (Democratic-leaning) and Texas/Florida (Republican-leaning) lose seats, while Alabama/Ohio (Republican-leaning) and Minnesota (Democratic-leaning) gain seats. Thus, no clear partisan advantage emerges.
- Center for Immigration Studies (CIS, 2019):
- CIS estimated that illegal immigrants alone (not including legal immigrants) redistributed three seats in 2020. California and New York (Democratic-leaning) gained one seat each, and Texas (Republican-leaning) gained one, while Alabama, Ohio (Republican-leaning), and Minnesota (Democratic-leaning) each lost one.
- The net partisan impact was minimal, with one Democratic state gaining a seat from a Republican state.
- PNAS Nexus (2025):
- A recent study found that including undocumented residents in census apportionment has had "little impact" on House control or presidential elections historically. In 2020, California would have lost one seat if undocumented immigrants were excluded, with negligible effects elsewhere.
- The study notes that the undocumented population in California has declined, reducing its impact compared to earlier decades.
- Claims of Larger Impacts:
- Some sources, like posts on X, claim Democrats would lose 10 or even 20-30 seats if undocumented immigrants were excluded.
- These figures are not supported by rigorous analyses. For example, a VERIFY fact-check found that excluding unauthorized immigrants would lead to California and Texas losing one seat each, with Ohio and Michigan gaining one each, resulting in no significant partisan shift.
- Elon Musk’s claim of a 20-seat loss for Democrats was debunked by FactCheck.org, which noted that the impact of illegal immigrants is closer to a three-seat redistribution with no clear partisan tilt.
Why the Impact Is Limited:
- Population Size: Undocumented immigrants are estimated to number around 10-11 million, roughly 3% of the U.S. population. Their uneven distribution affects some states more (e.g., California, Texas), but the overall impact on 435 House seats is small.
- Apportionment Mechanics: The Method of Equal Proportions, used since 1941, assigns seats based on total population, and small population changes often don’t shift seats due to the fixed total of 435.
- Partisan Balance: Both Democratic-leaning (e.g., California) and Republican-leaning (e.g., Texas, Florida) states have significant undocumented populations, balancing out partisan effects.
- Constitutional Constraint: The 14th Amendment mandates counting the "whole number of persons" for apportionment, including non-citizens, so excluding undocumented immigrants would face legal challenges.
Conclusion:
If undocumented immigrants were not counted for apportionment, Democrats would likely lose 0-2 House seats net, far less than exaggerated claims of 10-30 seats. The effect is diluted by the distribution of undocumented immigrants across both blue and red states and the mechanics of apportionment. Any change would also require overcoming significant legal barriers. For further details, reputable sources like Pew Research or CIS provide balanced projections.
