I find this fascinating. A soft viral season in 2019 preserved the life of the feeble who would have otherwise died. This lead to a double spike in deaths in Sweden in 2020. Short video <4min.
VERY interesting all cause mortality discussion re: Sweden
- Thread starter gardentiger
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But my career politician told me to wear my mask! They never lie!!!
Your vote can help make him/her your former-career politician!
This is from yesterday
www.rte.ie
Sweden tightens local measures as virus cases surge
Sweden has told residents in the south of the country to severely limit their social interactions after a surge in the number of cases last week and warnings that the situation is likely to get worse.
Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)
Explore data on COVID-19 excess mortality across the world.
ourworldindata.org
Not sure the source of this but the CDC itself say +12% mortality above expected. The chart below from the CDC report is interesting. I didn't know deaths spiked a bit in flu season January 2018.
Tableau Public
CDC contradicts your meme's napkin math.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...
This report describes the estimated excess deaths reported in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with 66% excess deaths attributed to COVID-19.
www.cdc.gov
Where in the love of Facebook did you get that made up bullshit?
Do you have a link to this data? TIA
Whatever the number turns out to be, THIS is the most accurate way to assess the number of COVID deaths, which is the delta between what the normal death rate trend was expected to be and what it actually is. This helps to account for deaths that would most likely have happened anyway. There may be some lag and/or some amount of spike that may have happened even without COVID, but it is still going to be the best number.
Some might find this account interesting...
www.nationalgeographic.com
Sweden still hasn't locked down. But normal life is a luxury for only a few
Life under Sweden's no-lockdown experiment depends on which side of this city you live.
Can someone produce the total US death count in 2020 thus far (or through September)? It’s interesting the CDC can provide such a detailed analysis concluding an “excess death rate” yet I haven’t seen a reliable figure for total deaths in 2020. I’m not advocating for either side, but I think that’s an important data point for Americans to draw their own conclusions.CDC contradicts your meme's napkin math.
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and ...
This report describes the estimated excess deaths reported in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with 66% excess deaths attributed to COVID-19.
Gotta be careful with misinformation, folks.
Here is a hint - don't trust data that looks like someone wrote it in Notepad, and then posted on social media.
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The Our World in Data and the Tableau links above - now these appear to be legitimate sources of data and not misinformation.
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Also, the original OP's topic - highly presumptive hypothesis to state the death rate in 2020 is higher primarily because the "feeble" didn't die off the year before. Really reaching to attempt to fit a narrative.
Here is a hint - don't trust data that looks like someone wrote it in Notepad, and then posted on social media.
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The Our World in Data and the Tableau links above - now these appear to be legitimate sources of data and not misinformation.
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Also, the original OP's topic - highly presumptive hypothesis to state the death rate in 2020 is higher primarily because the "feeble" didn't die off the year before. Really reaching to attempt to fit a narrative.
Sure. You can download the CDC data yourself here: Weekly Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes, 2019-2020
It's updated weekly and you can nerd out and do whatever you want with it. Through the week ending 10/17, the total US deaths All Causes is 2,551,781.
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We can do an accurate version of "Fake News" Notepad meme above, if you want. As far as I can tell the 2017-2019 numbers are fairly accurate. Meme shows 2.855mil died in 2019, actual was 2.853mil...very close. But for 2020:
Since its weekly data and the end of September fell mid-week. I'm going to take the week of 9/27 to 10/3 and divide the deaths in half and add to the 2020 total through week ended 9/26.
Thru 9/26 total deaths: 2,409,688
Week ended 10/3: 52,460(divide by 2 = 26,230)
Total deaths for Jan-Sept: 2,409,688 + 26,230 = 2,435,918
2,435,918 / 9(months) = 270,657.55
270,657.55 * 12months = 3,247,891 total estimated deaths for 2020.
Which is roughly 400,000 more deaths than the last 3 years.
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I think it's fair to argue that monthly average is skewed by the very high death rate from the initial Spring wave of Covid and given our better treatment options now and better understanding of the disease by our healthcare professionals, we won't likely see an average death rate quite as high for the remainder of the year and perhaps the true total will be lower.
However, it's also fair to look at that Tableau link above and note the normal seasonal death rate for these colder months we are just beginning is higher than the average, and if you add Covid to it and look at the rapidly increasing numbers of cases and hospitalizations occurring right now, perhaps the true total ends up even higher than this estimate.
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If their 'excess death rate' is 299,000, that's 1% of the Total Population in the US
Destroy the economy for that?
My one big question goes back to when this all started and before it got overly politicized. The initial push was to 'slow the curve' for the purpose of not overwhelming healthcare resources. It was stated that this was not changing the total number of cases long term, but potentially reducing deaths by making sure the healthcare system could treat all patients that needed it.
The key point was that restrictive measures were never expected to reduce the case count (barring a vaccine, etc), but to try to keep healthcare from being overwhelmed to allow the best care possible. And to continue treating people with other ailments.
When did that switch? When did we suddenly decide that keeping healthcare resources available wasn't the goal?
When they show these curves with masks and without masks, with closures and without closures... they always pick an arbitrary date. They don't run the tail out until the tale is told... My point is that if you look at the full curve, do the numbers really change in the long haul?
I am not advocating for people dying sooner. I am just asking because I feel like both sides of the argument are disingenuous at best.
I wear a mask. I am doing my best to social distance. I know this is a real pandemic.
You cannot argue with Sweeden's curve. Or their projections going forward. And I am looking at the IHME data. Are they perfect? No. Would I rather have their curve than ours? Yes.
The key point was that restrictive measures were never expected to reduce the case count (barring a vaccine, etc), but to try to keep healthcare from being overwhelmed to allow the best care possible. And to continue treating people with other ailments.
When did that switch? When did we suddenly decide that keeping healthcare resources available wasn't the goal?
When they show these curves with masks and without masks, with closures and without closures... they always pick an arbitrary date. They don't run the tail out until the tale is told... My point is that if you look at the full curve, do the numbers really change in the long haul?
I am not advocating for people dying sooner. I am just asking because I feel like both sides of the argument are disingenuous at best.
I wear a mask. I am doing my best to social distance. I know this is a real pandemic.
You cannot argue with Sweeden's curve. Or their projections going forward. And I am looking at the IHME data. Are they perfect? No. Would I rather have their curve than ours? Yes.
"Destroy" is hyperbolic. Our economy is not "destroyed". Damaged/Suppressed/Reduced/Diminished - all valid adjectives here, but not destroyed.
And what price would you put on a human life? Let's do that math.
Not trying to be baited into an argument, but if your wife/son/daughter were part of that 1% would it be any more or less important to you?
Your 2017, 2018 and 2019 data matches the CDC website data. Your 2020 data appears to be garbage.
The 2020 data is either old or incomplete. It doesn't appear to include January. At best, it is incomplete data from February through September...CDC.gov data has the total deaths for Feb-Sep at 2,170,725 deaths. Throw in the 263,000 deaths in January from CDC.gov and that brings the total to 2,433,725 from January 1 through September 30.
Add another 159,940 deaths so far in the month of October and that brings the total to 2,593,665 deaths YTD.
Extrapolating the rest of the year using actual deaths for Jan through Sep plus the Q4 death rates from 2019 brings the annual death toll for 2020 to an estimated 3,166,725 deaths. That's 311,725 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, an increase in death rate of 10.9% over last year.
The more likely scenario is an increase of closer to 14% with an annual death toll of 3,274,404...meaning 419,404 more dead Americans this year than last. A number that almost mirrors COVID-19 estimates for EOY 2020.
Provisional Death Counts 2020
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
National Center for Health Statistics
www.cdc.gov
2019 Death Totals
2018 Death Totals
2017 Death Totals
No doubt.
I thought about adding that.
The closer the tradgedy to you the more devastating it is. Without question.
My heart goes out to any and all who lost family members. Some multiple.
I hate it. But, it's life.
How many people do you know, dead or alive, that NEVER got the normal Flu?
Zero
And some still hang their hats on a vaccine that has been available for years.
How many people do you know, dead or alive, that NEVER got the normal cold virus?
Zero
How many people will eventually get/be exposed to with opportunity to get Covid?
Every
single
living
soul.
You cannot hide from it. Not "2 weeks", not 2 months, not 2 years.
If your genome is such that Covid wrecks it, you'll likely have a tough time and/or die.
Waiting to get exposed, wearing all these masks, staying away from people just postpones the inevitable.
Nice try and all, but really, in the end game it's to no avail.
We need to get back to living and try to save what's left of our economy.
I'm not heartless. I don'w wish harm, sickness or death on anyone.
Genetics you were born predict that. Not me.
AIER Hosts Top Epidemiologists, Authors of the Great Barrington...
The crisis of the policy response to Covid-19 drew AIER’s close attention from late January 2020 and following. The hosting of this crucial meeting was in the interest of backing the best science, promoting essential human rights, and reviving a focus on the common good.
www.aier.org
I would say thousands of small business owners that were mandated to not make a living for months had their personal economies destroyed.
wouldn't one expect a lower death rate in 2019 if the virus was weak that year? seems odd
fair enough on the word, policeman
But, you're talking what I would call "so far". The worst is yet to come.
No price on a human life.
And No amount of money can buy one nor guarantee to keep one.
You cannot manage anything by addresssing the miniscule percentages.
The lengths people are going to try and diminish the impact of this virus is mind boggling.
Many have been destroyed, especially small businesses and unemployed and underemployed.
"The cure is worse than the disease."
For each life saved from COVID-19 by the economic shutdown, multiple lives were lost because of it. We see this to a limited extent in the US. But it is rampant around the world. Food insecurity and starvation has tripled this year due to shutdowns. The UN estimates an extra 100 million (many children and young) will die from starvation alone this year, far more than COVID-19 (mostly elderly).
Targeted reasonable mitigation efforts are needed. A shutdown has never solved a pandemic and can make everything even worse.
What price would you put on a 100 million young people's lives?
COVID-19 is a real health concern and mitigation and vaccines are needed. But the hysteria and media and politicized overreactions are bizzare.
That’s with various measures implemented...without those measures, ostensibly that is a higher number. So where is the tipping point? No measures, go on completely as normal (packed stadiums for sports and concerts, completely normal travel air/car/cruise) to not ‘wreck the economy’...what level of incremental deaths are you comfortable with?
I’m legit curious. Or do you think what we have done has had no impact and things would be the same, death-wise with an unimpaired economy?
No doubt.
I thought about adding that.
The closer the tradgedy to you the more devastating it is. Without question.
My heart goes out to any and all who lost family members. Some multiple.
I hate it. But, it's life.
How many people do you know, dead or alive, that NEVER got the normal Flu?
Zero
And some still hang their hats on a vaccine that has been available for years.
How many people do you know, dead or alive, that NEVER got the normal cold virus?
Zero
How many people will eventually get/be exposed to with opportunity to get Covid?
Every
single
living
soul.
You cannot hide from it. Not "2 weeks", not 2 months, not 2 years.
If your genome is such that Covid wrecks it, you'll likely have a tough time and/or die.
Waiting to get exposed, wearing all these masks, staying away from people just postpones the inevitable.
Nice try and all, but really, in the end game it's to no avail.
We need to get back to living and try to save what's left of our economy.
I'm not heartless. I don'w wish harm, sickness or death on anyone.
Genetics you were born predict that. Not me.
AIER Hosts Top Epidemiologists, Authors of the Great Barrington...
The crisis of the policy response to Covid-19 drew AIER’s close attention from late January 2020 and following. The hosting of this crucial meeting was in the interest of backing the best science, promoting essential human rights, and reviving a focus on the common good.
I think those are fair points. My economic impact has been minimal, so my point of view is admittedly skewed there too. I think if I had been impacted heavily, my perspective on "sanctions" would be affected by that as well.
If I'm honest with myself, my primary concerns have been around losing loved ones, but only because the economics haven't impacted me nearly as much.
I think the answer is the original plan all along. Keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. To do so, use common sense approaches like masks and social distancing. Beyond that, life must go on as long as the hospitals can maintain.
It's fascinating that the party that always asks this question is the one that gets off on killing unborn babies
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Umm....no. This isn’t saying COVID didn’t cause the death. It’s saying that COVID triggered the other symptoms that caused the death. The odds of testing positive for COVID and just dropping dead with no explanation are pretty low. What happens is you develop respiratory or heart issues as shown above and die. The basic question is would they be alive if they did not catch COVID? In the vast majority of cases, yes they would be.
Again, see my post above. I’m not for a shut down, just a common sense approach. Posting data like this without context completely misses the point and doesn’t help.
Excuse me with your Umm...no. Did I say anything as to what it means? It’s saying that there were other underlying conditions that caused the death. Cause of death was not China virus. But of course... we are being mislead with the numbers. Period.
I'm not shooting you, I'm just arguing the logic. My grandfather died at 83 from heart failure caused by his body shutting down with ravaging cancer. Is he a cancer death or a heart problem? If he never had cancer, I'm guessing his heart wouldn't have killed him at 83. That's my interpretation of the data posted.
That has always been the question of society? When someone says one death is too much. Does that make you anti-Hoover Dam, Golden Gate Bridge, name any military conflict?
Society must always judge how many lives.
Bosnian war, many people consider that a good war. But what if 10,000 soldiers died. Still a good war? Swine flu, 12,000 died. Should anything have happened to the economy? Why are those 12,000 not important.
Bottom line is more people are dying, per month, of something. More than annual historical statistics are predicting. In my hometown county, they've averaged about 17 more deaths per month than expected this year, based on projections from past four years. At least that's what the coroner says and reports to the county manager and council.
Why don't you tell us what price YOU put on a human life? We already put a price on human life. Otherwise, we would mandate public transportation, limit speed limits @ 20mph elsewhere, not allow high school sports, recreational vehicles such as boats/atv/utv/dirt bikes, have mandatory diet and exercise requirements, just to name a few things. If you do the things I just mentioned, you would save many more lives every year than the number of deaths we have from covid.
Why are you and all the other heartless bastards that only care about themselves not advocating for these things????????
