VERY interesting all cause mortality discussion re: Sweden

[SGTiger]

The ignorance involved in not only the tweet, but your posting it here is truly astounding.

@amynhop melts more lib snowflakes on this board than any other poster.

 

[CU91ENGR]

Please post these Real CDC numbers you speak of Sir Idiot

It's already noted above. I'm not wasting my time re-posting it or summarizing it for someone who probably uses a slide rule.

 

[CUT93]

agreed. 100% bullshit through and through.

here's the thing though; we still have a few hundred thousand excess deaths to account for this year in the US alone. call them whatever you want, but we're up almost 10% year over year on number of people no longer breathing in this country. based on my novice scientific experience i'd say we have something odd going on, specifically if that number is a statistically significant increase from the previous few years of data (hint, it was). I truly cannot understand what the justification is for not investigating a rise in deaths by about 10% with no real explanation

I honestly don't think there is any great mystery. A large portion of the increase is due to covid. Another overlooked area that is almost impossible to measure statistically, is the number of people who died bc they were scared to seek medical treatment and either died at home from lack of medical care or waited so long to seek medical care it was too late to help. Add to that the increase in murders, suicides, accidental deaths from increased drug use, etc and that is the explanation. However, a significant number of the covid deaths are almost certainly cases where death that was likely in the next 2-3 years was accelerated by covid. I expect we will see a drop in deaths over the next couple of years. It looks like there have been over 120,000 covid deaths for people 74+ yrs old. It is likely a significant number of those would have died in the next few years due to age and other existing health problems. Also likely there are other younger age deaths of those with significant health issues that were likley accelerated by covid. In places like NY where there were massive deaths in nursing homes due to the state allowing covid patients to be maintained there and it running through facilities like wildfire, there is no question this applies.
I can't speak for everyone, but there is no denying covid has increased overall deaths, imo. I don't dispute that. What I have a problem with is the lack of perspective about the situation. Let's just say there are 250,000 deaths related to covid this year. 250,000 deaths is terrible no matter if you are talking about all in South Carolina or worldwide. It still matters what percentage of the whole that is, though. That represents roughly three quarters of one percent of the population(0 .00075 as a decimal). The economic cost of what we have done in response is so far out of proportion it is criminal. There is simply no logical way to justify the TRILLIONS of dollars it has cost the country. If we had spent half of what we end up spending on research for heart disease(along with cancer and diabetes) we could save multiple times the number of covid deaths for years to come- not just one year. As I said in another post, there are a multitude of other things we could do every year to save lives that we don't do. Are people that die from traffic accidents, recreational(boat/atv/etc) accidents lives less important? Why the priority of covid over other deaths we accept every single year? We have almost 3 million people die every year in America. It's not like deaths are increasing 4-5X normal. 300,000 deaths would be less than one tenth of one percent of the population. It simply does not make sense. There is absolutely no logical explanation for the vast majority of things we have done.

 

[BigTimeTiger]

It's already noted above. I'm not wasting my time re-posting it or summarizing it for someone who probably uses a slide rule.

Well at least I know how to use a slide rule and I’m not even an engineer. Don’t you wish you knew how to use one? Dumbass!

PS there are no numbers posted by you or the Dunce Pack that add up to over 2,000,000 posted in this thread. You stupid Fvck!

 

[PontificatingUnifex]

@amynhop melts more lib snowflakes on this board than any other poster.

Embracing stupidity to pwn de libz...interesting life choices.

 

[bizlat]

Whatever the number turns out to be, THIS is the most accurate way to assess the number of COVID deaths, which is the delta between what the normal death rate trend was expected to be and what it actually is. This helps to account for deaths that would most likely have happened anyway. There may be some lag and/or some amount of spike that may have happened even without COVID, but it is still going to be the best number.

This is some pretty good info here. Worth checking out imo.

Right off the bat Jan. 2018 jumps out at you. That was a bad year for not dying. This jacked the trend line up a bit for 2019. Well, Jan. 2019 was a pretty good time for not dying( I attribute it to certain college football playoff game played in Santa Clara). So, that lowered the projections for 2020 which was kind of what the OP was about. Now obviously the maths for this graph are not filet mignon level, probably closer to a Wendy's cheeseburger. But, gets the job done I guess.

The hope in this data is that our beautiful normal distribution that 2020 blew up will soon return. Like 2018/2019 seem to be related then in the same way those spikes we saw earlier in the year are going to lead to much lower numbers at some point down the line (no pun int.). Let's hope and pray that is end of this year beginning of '21.

 

[SGTiger]

Embracing stupidity to pwn de libz...interesting life choices.

She could post the sky is blue, but because she's MAGA, you libs wet the bed.

 

[EastCHTiger]

I honestly don't think there is any great mystery. A large portion of the increase is due to covid. Another overlooked area that is almost impossible to measure statistically, is the number of people who died bc they were scared to seek medical treatment and either died at home from lack of medical care or waited so long to seek medical care it was too late to help. Add to that the increase in murders, suicides, accidental deaths from increased drug use, etc and that is the explanation. However, a significant number of the covid deaths are almost certainly cases where death that was likely in the next 2-3 years was accelerated by covid. I expect we will see a drop in deaths over the next couple of years. It looks like there have been over 120,000 covid deaths for people 74+ yrs old. It is likely a significant number of those would have died in the next few years due to age and other existing health problems. Also likely there are other younger age deaths of those with significant health issues that were likley accelerated by covid. In places like NY where there were massive deaths in nursing homes due to the state allowing covid patients to be maintained there and it running through facilities like wildfire, there is no question this applies.
I can't speak for everyone, but there is no denying covid has increased overall deaths, imo. I don't dispute that. What I have a problem with is the lack of perspective about the situation. Let's just say there are 250,000 deaths related to covid this year. 250,000 deaths is terrible no matter if you are talking about all in South Carolina or worldwide. It still matters what percentage of the whole that is, though. That represents roughly three quarters of one percent of the population(0 .00075 as a decimal). The economic cost of what we have done in response is so far out of proportion it is criminal. There is simply no logical way to justify the TRILLIONS of dollars it has cost the country. If we had spent half of what we end up spending on research for heart disease(along with cancer and diabetes) we could save multiple times the number of covid deaths for years to come- not just one year. As I said in another post, there are a multitude of other things we could do every year to save lives that we don't do. Are people that die from traffic accidents, recreational(boat/atv/etc) accidents lives less important? Why the priority of covid over other deaths we accept every single year? We have almost 3 million people die every year in America. It's not like deaths are increasing 4-5X normal. 300,000 deaths would be less than one tenth of one percent of the population. It simply does not make sense. There is absolutely no logical explanation for the vast majority of things we have done.

This is something that is at least a logical argument and needs to be thought through. The death record data the CDC collects is clear, around 300,000 more people have died this year by the middle of October than die typically in that window. This is not something the government just started, NCHS always tracks deaths.

The question is what do we do about it? We need to learn how to live with it, protect the vulnerable, get kids back in school as best we can, there are unintended costs with shutting down, small business is hurting, etc.

But we aren't having that debate. There seem to be a third of people who think this is all bs, actually less people are going to die this year than a normal year. I don't think lockdowns are the solution but putting your head in the sand that nothing is going on is not one either.

 

[BigTimeTiger]

This is something that is at least a logical argument and needs to be thought through. The death record data the CDC collects is clear, around 300,000 more people have died this year by the middle of October than die typically in that window. This is not something the government just started, NCHS always tracks deaths.

The question is what do we do about it? We need to learn how to live with it, protect the vulnerable, get kids back in school as best we can, there are unintended costs with shutting down, small business is hurting, etc.

But we aren't having that debate. There seem to be a third of people who think this is all bs, actually less people are going to die this year than a normal year. I don't think lockdowns are the solution but putting your head in the sand that nothing is going on is not one either.

Can you please quote the total number of deaths that is 300,000 more than last year through October 15th? The number should be over two million at least. I’ll wait patiently on a reply with a link. Thanks for playing in advance.

PS your last paragraph agrees more with @Tiger at State’s original post data more than your first statement argues against it. Please make up your mind.

Is what @Tiger at State posted BS or not? Y’all have supported it being true more than it being false. At least understand WTF you’re posting before you shitpost. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

[lcctay]

"Destroy" is hyperbolic. Our economy is not "destroyed". Damaged/Suppressed/Reduced/Diminished - all valid adjectives here, but not destroyed.

And what price would you put on a human life? Let's do that math.

Take a look at the charts in these tweets ...

Here we see the breakdown analyzing the excess deaths from all sources:
Excess Deaths: 238,560
Reported Fatalities: 211,781 (26K missing currently)
Lockdown related deaths: 90.062 (deaths due to suicides, drug overdose, Alzheimers etc)



So here is the breakdown:
Died of COVID: 148,482
COVID Pull forward deaths (pre-post 2020 deaths which naturally would have occurred): 63,298
Orange circles of Alzheimers, Cancer Access, Suicide/Drug/Despair: 97,599



Finally, 2019 was a light excess deaths years for USA. See the second image and the bottom trend chart of excess deaths. Note the ongoing excess deaths trends (which is concerning) but you can see how the light deaths in 2019 spill into 2020 and spike the US death count (with deaths also pulled from 2021).

The Hope Simpson cases and deaths chart shows the normal viral pattern by latitude of all virus historically including COVID (but that is another discussion).



Bottom line, it is like a bad flu season. Deaths per capita are similar across the world and largely influenced by prior year severity as shown in other posts here.

Lockdown deaths appear to be approaching 100,000 and we have not accomplished anything positive with the lockdowns - we made it worse and destroyed many lives in the process.

You might be able to argue for for a brief lockdown at the beginning but really the main actions needed to be the Sweden "herd immunity" model with more protections of the vulnerable people (wash hands/social distance of course). Masks do not help.

Finally, note the quote in the chart "The developed world has swerved into a ditch to miss a chipmunk and, in so doing, has exported wholesale death and calamity to the developing world".

 

[EastCHTiger]

Can you please quote the total number of deaths that is 300,000 more than last year through October 15th? The number should be over two million at least. I’ll wait patiently on a reply with a link. Thanks for playing in advance.

PS your last paragraph agrees more with @Tiger at State’s original post data more than your first statement argues against it. Please make up your mind.

Is what @Tiger at State posted BS or not? Y’all have supported it being true more than it being false. At least understand WTF you’re posting before you shitpost. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

NCHS death data has been published in a report the CDC did to try to calculate excess death. A little over 2.4 million people died the first 39 weeks of the year vs a little over 2.1 expected. If the same number of people in the US die in the last 13 weeks of 2020 as died in last 13 weeks in 2019 that will be a little over 700k more. That puts the total at 3.1 which is 300k higher than 2.8.

I can listen and think through the we swerved in the dich to avoid hitting a deer argument. I actually agree with a good bit of it. I am going to push back on the "there is no deer" augment. That is conspiracy theory.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.

www.cdc.gov

 

[tigdad]

Not trying to be baited into an argument, but if your wife/son/daughter were part of that 1% would it be any more or less important to you?

Well, I would be devastated if I lost a loved one to death, and that day is likely coming again for sure. However, if they die in a car accident I will not advocate for 20MPH speed limits. If they die in a four wheeler accident I won't advocate for the outlawing of four wheelers.....etc. We cannot shut down the world over this virus. Cancer screenings for the top six killer cancers are down 70%, depression, drug abuse, spousal and child abuse, family businesses lost forever.... on and on the horrible impact on humanity that a shutdown produces.

 

[scott in nashville]

Well, I would be devastated if I lost a loved one to death, and that day is likely coming again for sure. However, if they die in a car accident I will not advocate for 20MPH speed limits. If they die in a four wheeler accident I won't advocate for the outlawing of four wheelers.....etc. We cannot shut down the world over this virus. Cancer screenings for the top six killer cancers are down 70%, depression, drug abuse, spousal and child abuse, family businesses lost forever.... on and on the horrible impact on humanity that a shutdown produces.

No argument from me, my point was that your point of view is most based on how you’ve been impacted. One of my very dear friends is a staunch conservative and she got a terrible (almost deadly) case of Covid. She would shut the planet down at the moment after her experience. Under different circumstances, her story would be completely the opposite.

 

[jakefest]

My one big question goes back to when this all started and before it got overly politicized. The initial push was to 'slow the curve' for the purpose of not overwhelming healthcare resources. It was stated that this was not changing the total number of cases long term, but potentially reducing deaths by making sure the healthcare system could treat all patients that needed it.

The key point was that restrictive measures were never expected to reduce the case count (barring a vaccine, etc), but to try to keep healthcare from being overwhelmed to allow the best care possible. And to continue treating people with other ailments.

When did that switch? When did we suddenly decide that keeping healthcare resources available wasn't the goal?

When they show these curves with masks and without masks, with closures and without closures... they always pick an arbitrary date. They don't run the tail out until the tale is told... My point is that if you look at the full curve, do the numbers really change in the long haul?

I am not advocating for people dying sooner. I am just asking because I feel like both sides of the argument are disingenuous at best.

I wear a mask. I am doing my best to social distance. I know this is a real pandemic.

You cannot argue with Sweeden's curve. Or their projections going forward. And I am looking at the IHME data. Are they perfect? No. Would I rather have their curve than ours? Yes.

I could not agree more with what you wrote. I thought the concept was always to slow, not eradicate the virus so we didn't overwhelm the system. Countries that fully locked down are now seeing spikes also, so it's evident this thing isn't just going to go away.

I don't know what the answer is but I do know that staying locked up in our houses isn't the right one either.

 

[jakefest]

And then you have this idiot........the single most responsible person for the insanely high death rate in New York. Also odd that his own brother won't even wear a mask but he's comfortable flagging Trump as the problem.

I don't care what party you affiliate with, this guy is a f*cking laughable joke.

Gov. Cuomo: I'm Holding Trump 'Responsible for Every' Coronavirus Death in This Country

Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) said Thursday on ABC's "The View" that President Donald Trump is responsible for "every death" in America from the coronavirus pandemic. | Clips

www.breitbart.com

 

[CU91ENGR]

Can you please quote the total number of deaths that is 300,000 more than last year through October 15th? The number should be over two million at least. I’ll wait patiently on a reply with a link. Thanks for playing in advance.

PS your last paragraph agrees more with @Tiger at State’s original post data more than your first statement argues against it. Please make up your mind.

Is what @Tiger at State posted BS or not? Y’all have supported it being true more than it being false. At least understand WTF you’re posting before you shitpost. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Hey, dipshit @BigTimeTiger , just thought I'd leave this quote from an article here for you along with a link to the facts: "Newly released CDC data reveal that 'an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to Covid-19.' https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

 

[TigerFlow]

I would say thousands of small business owners that were mandated to not make a living for months had their personal economies destroyed.

Yes, true and fair point and is an awful reality. I'm speaking about the US economy as a whole - which looks to end 2020 at a -3.5 to - 4.9% reduction. At the microeconomic level - let's say we didn't do any lockdowns and let the virus do it's thing. Do we think there wouldn't have been a negative economic impact? Do you think people wouldn't have been scared and there wouldn't have been self-imposed "lockdowns"? You can't measure these hypotheticals, but you have to recognize we don't live in a vacuum and no matter what, there would be negative economic impacts.

fair enough on the word, policeman
But, you're talking what I would call "so far". The worst is yet to come.

No price on a human life.
And No amount of money can buy one nor guarantee to keep one.

You cannot manage anything by addresssing the miniscule percentages.

Words are important. People are so hyperbolic these days and it helps nothing.

Agree with your points.

Many have been destroyed, especially small businesses and unemployed and underemployed.

"The cure is worse than the disease."

For each life saved from COVID-19 by the economic shutdown, multiple lives were lost because of it. We see this to a limited extent in the US. But it is rampant around the world. Food insecurity and starvation has tripled this year due to shutdowns. The UN estimates an extra 100 million (many children and young) will die from starvation alone this year, far more than COVID-19 (mostly elderly).

Targeted reasonable mitigation efforts are needed. A shutdown has never solved a pandemic and can make everything even worse.

What price would you put on a 100 million young people's lives?

COVID-19 is a real health concern and mitigation and vaccines are needed. But the hysteria and media and politicized overreactions are bizzare.

So many things to address in your statement, I don't even know where to begin. These are topics that could be discussed at great lengths. I'll just say I agree with the bolded statements.

It's fascinating that the party that always asks this question is the one that gets off on killing unborn babies

Really? "Gets off on" Is that how you really perceive the majority of people in this country(since the vast majority do support legal abortion)? That's bizarre, kinda frightening, fairly sad, and wrong.

Why don't you tell us what price YOU put on a human life? We already put a price on human life. Otherwise, we would mandate public transportation, limit speed limits @ 20mph elsewhere, not allow high school sports, recreational vehicles such as boats/atv/utv/dirt bikes, have mandatory diet and exercise requirements, just to name a few things. If you do the things I just mentioned, you would save many more lives every year than the number of deaths we have from covid.
Why are you and all the other heartless bastards that only care about themselves not advocating for these things????????

More hyperbole and sarcasm. How helpful.

This is just a straw-man argument to divert from the matter at hand. Not sure what to tell you, bud. You wouldn't want to hear it anyway, so I won't waste my time. But, you certainly aren't paying attention if you think smart, hard-working people in this Country aren't advocating every single day for socioeconomic changes that would save lives. My wife is one of them.

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[IcelandTiger]

Yes, true and fair point and is an awful reality. I'm speaking about the US economy as a whole - which looks to end 2020 at a -3.5 to - 4.9% reduction. At the microeconomic level - let's say we didn't do any lockdowns and let the virus do it's thing. Do we think there wouldn't have been a negative economic impact? Do you think people wouldn't have been scared and there wouldn't have been self-imposed "lockdowns"? You can't measure these hypotheticals, but you have to recognize we don't live in a vacuum and no matter what, there would be negative economic impacts.




Words are important. People are so hyperbolic these days and it helps nothing.

Agree with your points.




So many things to address in your statement, I don't even know where to begin. These are topics that could be discussed at great lengths. I'll just say I agree with the bolded statements.




Really? "Gets off on" Is that how you really perceive the majority of people in this country(since the vast majority do support legal abortion)? That's bizarre, kinda frightening, fairly sad, and wrong.




More hyperbole and sarcasm. How helpful.

This is just a straw-man argument to divert from the matter at hand. Not sure what to tell you, bud. You wouldn't want to hear it anyway, so I won't waste my time. But, you certainly aren't paying attention if you think smart, hard-working people in this Country aren't advocating every single day for socioeconomic changes that would save lives. My wife is one of them.

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You watch my Milton Friedman Michael Moore video?