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Ukraine War

Analysis.


In Ukraine, “There’s Something Happening There”​

By Larry Johnson
Published January 12, 2023 at 7:00am

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The sixties band, Buffalo Springfield, had a hit song that I think captures the dramatic developments in Ukraine and Russia over the last 36 hours — “There’s Something Happening Here:”
The collapse of Ukrainian resistance in Soledar was confirmed even by some of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine, which means that Bakhmut is expected to fall under Russian control in the next few days. Russian forces are moving from the South, the North and the East and are creating a potential cauldron that will leave Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut surrounded.
Remember my last article? I credited CNN with getting something right. Well, you can relax, CNN is back to pushing propaganda and failing to understand what is going on:
TRENDING: HISTORY IN THE MAKING: The State of New California Holds Its 10th Constitutional Convention
Russia’s Defense Ministry announced yet another realignment of the commanders leading the war in Ukraine on Wednesday, as criticism mounts over its handling of the stalled campaign.
It said that General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, would become the overall commander of the campaign, with the current commander, Sergey Surovikin, becoming one of his three deputies. . . .
Mark Galeotti, senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, said “it is a kind of demotion [for Gerasimov] or at least the most poisoned of chalices. It’s now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again.”
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Yes, Chief of General Staff General of the Army Valery Gerasimov was named the commander of the Joint Group of Forces and Sergei Surovikin named Commander-in-Chief of Aerospace Forces General of the Army. This was not a command shake up because of unhappiness with Surovikin’s performance over the last three months. Just the opposite — I believe it signals that Russia is setting the table for a major escalation in its operations to eliminate the Ukrainian military threat.
Letting Surovikin focus on the “Aerospace Forces” means that Russian air and space operations are likely to kick into overdrive. Until now, the Russian Air Force has played a minimal role in the battles during the last 11 months. Putting Gerasimov in charge of the Joint Group of Forces is a clear signal that the command task going forward is going to be more complex and comprehensive. Cue Bachman Turner Overdrive, You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet:

Let me give you a couple more relevant pieces of intel. Let us start with a large movement by the Russian Navy in the Black Sea:
This morning Russian Navy ships and submarines left their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and may indicate ongoing operations.
Sources seen by Naval News confirm the exodus. The group included the Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship, Pyotr Morgunov, the largest amphibious ship in the Black Sea.
It also contained all three Project 636.3 Improved-Kilo class submarines which were present at the base. Analysis suggests that other warships were also sailing, leaving only a few warships and support vessels in the port. It is likely the most empty that Novorossiysk has been in many months.
At the same time, Russia is continuing to build up its military forces in Belarus:
Personnel, weapons, military and special equipment of the Russian armed forces will continue to arrive in Belarus.
Over the weekend, the Belarussian Ministry of Defense announced that a significant tactical flight exercise between Belarussian and Russian forces would take place from late January to early February. The Russian military has deployed more than a dozen helicopters in Belarus, including Mi-8 transport and Mi-24 and Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters. According to the British Military Intelligence, some of the helicopters sport the “Z” war marking that Russian forces are using on the ground in Ukraine.
“The new deployment of Russian aircraft to Belarus is likely a genuine exercise, rather than a preparation for any additional offensive operations against Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
One more thing –Where are the Chechens? If you followed the battle of Mariupol in May the social media channels were filled with video of the bearded Russian muslims shouting Allahu Akbar as they crushed the Ukrainian Azov battalion. Now, nothing. They are out there somewhere in substantial numbers but have not yet been operationally deployed in force. Are they gearing up for a new offensive?
Put yourself in the shoes of the Ukrainian General Staff. On the eastern front your soldiers are being slaughtered and losing critical territory to Russia. The Bakhmut/Soledar line of defense has been breached. You need to reinforce the Kramatorsk/Slovyanksa line but there are limited numbers of trained troops.
At the same time, you have to wonder if the Russians are going to launch an amphibious/aerial assault on Odessa. Do you have enough forces or available reinforcements to fortify and defend Odessa. Then there is the build up in Belarus. Belarus and Russia have assembled enough ground and air forces to pose a credible threat to Kiev.
Where will Russia strike? That is why Gerasimov has assumed overall command of these Joint Forces. He could use feints by forces in the North and South to pin down Ukrainian troops and launch a major attack from the East. Or he could order full attacks from the North, South and East. He has other options as well.
The West and Ukraine claim that Russia cannot mount a credible offensive operation until Spring. I don’t know if the West is putting that message out as part of a propaganda campaign to convince Russia that Ukraine is not prepared for a Winter offensive or if they genuinely believe that. The only thing I know for certain is that Russia, like a World Champion Poker Player, is hiding its cards and only showing Ukraine what it wants them to see. Is Russia going to go all in or will it continue grinding?
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RFK Jr just declared war on the deep state

Let's destroy this evil now and forever.

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This tweet risks being reported and restricted, but I see a necessity to say it out loud:

Our real enemy isn't Russia or Ukraine. It's not even China.

It's the ones who induced and tried to perpetuate wars - so they can launder billions of our money into their own pockets.

It's the ones who funded revolts and instability all over the world via USAID

It's the ones who have committed unspeakable crimes on children on an island and held themselves above the law.

It's the ones who manipulate people with endless propaganda - using our tax dollars.

It's the ones who have sown so much division among our own people.

It's the ones who shot my dad, my uncle, and @realDonaldTrump in the head.

It's the ones who have poisoned our own people for years just so they can profit more.

They're the same group of people.

And we will not stop until we splinter them, the deep state, into a thousand pieces and reclaim our country.

Should the United States Exit NATO? Momentum Building

They aren’t paying their fair share and want to bully us into a war we don’t want!

All while they have socialized medicine and disrepect free speech.

The disrespect of free speech is enough for me. Release all the speech hostages is a hard requirement. We don’t defend ideals that don’t match ours.

Europe needs to shape up!


Multiple senators including Mike Lee who has made an official proposition to exit. Zelenskyy may have made a YUGE political blunder.



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Looks like Norway has already changed their mind about refueling our subs. Didn’t take long.

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******THE CLEMSON DUBCAST: Valerie Bauerlein

GKUym5mWsAAy7OR






As a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, Valerie Bauerlein had a front-row seat to the most captivating murder trial since OJ Simpson.

But Bauerlein did more than file dispatches to her newspaper during Alex Murdaugh's trial: She wrote the definitive narrative of not just the Murdaugh story, but the roots of the generational power the Murdaugh family wielded in Hampton County for more than a century as they made problems go away by making lies look like the truth.

In The Devil at His Elbow: Alex Murdaugh and the Fall of a Southern Dynasty, Bauerlein delivers a masterpiece of reporting, organization and storytelling.

Bauerlein, a national reporter who writes about small-town America and Southern politics, economics and culture, joins The Dubcast to reflect not just on her process of writing the book but also some fascinating parts of the backstory that didn't make the final edit -- including an early-1900s march on the Horseshoe in Columbia by Randolph Murdaugh Sr. to bring back football after it was banned.

Bauerlein also explores some questions that remain unanswered even as Alex is in prison for the murders of his wife Maggie and son Paul:

Did Alex have help in carrying out the murders?

How close was Alex to averting a guilty verdict?

Where is all the money he stole from people who most needed it, including the family of Gloria Satterfield?

Bauerlein lives in the Raleigh area with her husband and two children.

Before joining the Journal in 2005, she worked as a congressional correspondent for the News & Observer in Raleigh, a legislative reporter at The State in Columbia, and a cops reporter at the Winston-Salem Journal.

Bauerlein interview

And here are the previous two in case you missed them:

Otis Pickett

Mike Noonan

Clemson Baseball 25

Watching this sweep of the coots made me think of how far we have came since Tanner teams 10 years or so ago..

They were the looser team..and they were better..they KNEW they would own us..

Coach Bakich has flipped the switch in this rivalry...Clemson EXPECTED to win this series and were EXCITED to play...from.that promo video they did and in all 3 games..

Great job guys!

Biggest gamecock fan I know

So I know a guy who is a local businessman who has done quite well for himself over the years. This particular gentleman is a good guy, by all accounts, and I’ve enjoyed his generosity a few times over the years And his wife is a very nice woman who is a big Georgia fan/alumni.

However, he is also the most annoying loud mouth Gamecock fan I know. The kind to go back-and-forth troll on Facebook. The kind of guy who would have gladly held up five fingers if given a chance to get a photo with Dabo.

Anyway, long story short, they have a daughter who has grown up to be a very pretty young woman and is quite the cheerleader. I saw on social media a few weeks back where she had been accepted to Clemson and chose to attend, where I believe she will be cheering. 😂

I just wish I had been a fly on the wall as these discussions were taking place 😂🤣

It is my hope that she becomes as hard-core of a Clemson fan, as her dad is a Carolina fan. I hope she marries one of our players and they raise their kids to be lifelong Tigers where they donate a portion of their inheritance from their grandparents to IPTAY.

What a weekend..

For Clemson athletics. Sweep v So Carolina, huge second half to beat uva, who has had our number, in hoops, gymnast does the Biles (whatever that is) and makes national news and our women’s lacrosse team gets a road win v the #6 team in the country. I know we’ve had some big weekends over the years but this has to be up there.
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