I was trying to make the point that play calling being conservative leads to lower TD probabilities. I found an article that shows the data.

https://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

Focus on the blue curve:
0-5 yards: TD probability decreases from about 85% to about 63%
5-10 yards: 63% to 48%
10-15 yards: increases and plateaus around 53% (since you can get a first down in the 0-5 yard range)
15-20 yards: decreases again from 53% to 44%

So you really need to be more aggressive from 9-10 yards out and 15-20 yards out in play calling in my opinion.

In the FSU game, after re-watching the film, there are some examples of conservative play calls but also a few lower probabilities plays.

My takeaways are:
1) Add more Mafah runs off tackle instead of inside
2) Need a dimension of RB out in the flat for a reception (I would like to see Jay Haynes in this role), We seem to have plays for TE but not RB.

We did get very conservative on O in Q4 inside the RZ but had many drives stopped before Q4 due to poor execution.

So play calling grade I would rate a "B" if you throw out the Q4.



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Will be in Atlanta October 25-26. Any suggestions of a place for a romantic dinner with the wife?

Thanks in advance.

...before Louis Solomon came in and led us to a 29-28 victory.

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Who else was there?

From our South Carolina site here at Rivals.com:

"Our relationship with them is not going away. It's not going away."

Interesting.

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I bet this makes Dabo proud.

It should:

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My wife & I decided to hunker down during Milton with our dog, Bear & our nine chickens. We live about 10 miles from the coast gulf coast in central Florida. Last night, Hurricane Milton came barreling through with gusts up to 110 mph. We had Carolina Coops build us one of their coops back in April. The coop held up beautifully as the winds were howling for about 4 hours. Love Carolina Coops.

Looking for some reqs. It's fall break for the kids, so doing a mini vacay. Wife's brother lives in Taylors and we will certainly be dropping in to see her baby nephew. We also intend to take in a few Clemson volleyball games while up there. Beyond that I hope to do a little hiking. Not really sure on budget just yet, but certainly don't want to get crazy.

How's lakeside lodge?

EDIT: it is an away game for Clemson

THURSDAY CLEMSON FOOTBALL NUGGETS
By: Larry Williams

Hope everyone out there is doing well on this lovely afternoon in Clemson.

Last week, sort of overshadowed in the Tigers' closer-than-it-should-have- been victory at Florida State was Clemson's total stifling of the Seminoles' running game (22 yards on 23 attempts).

No, FSU is not good at running the ball this year. The only time the Seminoles have cracked 100 yards was against California, and at that just barely (107 yards on 41 carries at 2.61 yards per attempt).

So was the trench ownership that we saw from Clemson's defensive line more a reflection of FSU being really bad at blocking, or did we see substantial progress from a defensive front that is still developing and still getting everyone healthy?

We'll know more Saturday afternoon, because it's pretty close to imperative that Clemson's defensive front be active and disruptive against Wake Forest's slow-mesh concepts.

And we'd say the Demon Deacons' offensive line is probably a good bit better than FSU's in that they seem more well-schooled in their system and more cohesive.

About that slow-mesh thing, just as a refresher:

It's still such an odd thing to see, even though they've been doing it for years, because of the quarterback and running back drifting toward the line of scrimmage as they hold the mesh.

The idea is to hold the mesh for a two-count and create second-level conflict.

The natural way to stop the slow mesh is to blow it up with either an active front four and/or blitzing linebackers.

So the read for the quarterback is: Pull the ball and throw it if the linebackers come forward, or hand it off if the linebackers play back.

-- Here's a good close-up view of the slow mesh against Ole Miss:

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You can see quarterback Hank Bachmeier with his eyes on the linebackers, and also the Rebels' defensive line not really rushing upfield so they can keep their eyes on Bachmeier.

Here it's blocked pretty well. And I really like this back, Demond Claiborne, because he just seems to have a great sense of finding the creases and then accelerating:

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-- Here Claiborne is last week at N.C. State. This guy will make you pay for overpursuing:

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-- The Wolfpack brought a lot of pressure last week, and the feeling here is that's a sound approach because the Deacons are missing stud wideout Donavon Greene and I'm not sure Bachmeier is poised enough to make accurate throws under duress:

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-- I hadn't watched a lot of Ole Miss this season before yesterday when I checked out their 40-6 romp in Winston-Salem.

Wow, the Rebels are really freaking good up front and the Deacons had no answers:

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-- Saw a lot of good things from Clemson's defensive line in Tallahassee that figure to bode well for the Tigers inflicting their own disruption of the slow mesh.

After allowing Stanford to pile up 236 yards on the ground, really like how they contained the ball in Tallahassee:

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-- And we'll close with some quite favorable clips from DeMonte Capehart and Jaheim Lawson:

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Observation:

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He won 11 of his first 12 games at USC.

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2nd Season as starters first 5 games


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These box scores are still going on pretty scant data points this early in the season - but here it is nonetheless... First results from last week vs FSU.



Without the two missed field goals we would have hit the CU score prediction - and outside of the point deficit we outperformed on first downs and yards gained, which gave our offense a slight IMPROVEMENT from expectations overall. In other words, we did better than we 'should have' based on previous performances (except in points).

Our defense took a much larger jump - outperforming expectations across the board. We need more of these out-performing results for our defense to statistically get to where we need it to be. Going into FSU our defense had a NEGATIVE 23% bonus - as you see below, we are now only NEGATIVE 6%. That's a big change, but not nearly where our historic Coach-V defenses were.

I know there was a lot of angst after the FSU game, but the stats show we are still going in the right direction.

This week:



Vegas predicts Wake will drop 21 points on us - but the computer says 29. Why does the computer think this way?

Wake has played 5 games but we are excluding the non-FBS results of NC A&T - so with the remaining 4 data points - the defenses of those four teams have allowed, on average, 22.66 points per game. Yet, Wake has scored an average of 27 points in those games against the 22.66 avg points allowed defenses - giving them a 19% bonus in the category.

Now Wake will face a CLEMSON defense which has allowed 23.2 points per game avg, which is slightly softer defense than they've faced on average in their other games where they've scored 27 points per game - so the computer looks at that and thinks they will score 28.3 on us, but gives them a bump up to 29 since playing at home gives them a slight bump in stats.

So here's what the "EXPECTATIONS" are based purely on stats performances. With that said, CLEMSON has been on a trend of out-performing expectations - and to be honest, you'd expect them to. Vegas clearly thinks our defense will outperform past performances as they have Wake scoring 21 points against their average of 27 vs FBS opponents.

If that ends up being the case then our defense should take another jump next week - which we really, really need if we want to compete in the playoffs.

IF Cade is ON this week, it's a huge opportunity for our receivers to stack up some yards against a horrible pass-defense which has yielded nearly 100 yards per game over opponent's passing averages.

GO TIGERS!

Jets? The wheels are turning. Enough of the college scene.

Saw Cade Klubik on campus

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What is the latest on how to establish residency for in state tuition? My high school senior is late to being interested in Clemson and we are trying to make as much apples and apples comparisons as possible to our in-state options in NC.

Is it even feasible for a student to eat laid b residency as a sophomore anymore? I know it’s next to impossible in Virginia.

Anyone here got experience with them? They are installing and tearing up underground utilities all over the Midlands. Regardless, I'm sick of the inconsistency of the AT&T crap we have now. Lumos installed fiber on my road a few weeks ago and they say individual service will be available soon. I assume the service is good and more consistent regardless of load than what I have now with old timey bonded pair phone lines. The price is a wash.

My main question, is how far will they generally run a service drop? I'm around 800 or so feet from the road if they take the path AT&T did. Is that doable? Do they upcharge after a certain distance? Just curious what I'm up against when it becomes fully available which I'm told will be very soon. Am I better off getting AT&T to service/upgrade what I already have?

For those interested, this

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