Tuesday was fine for No. 2 Clemson. The Tigers took care of business in a 2-1 victory over Wofford that, for sure, could have been greater.
But the importance is getting the win. Clemson (11-2-2. 5-2-0) now turns its attention to Virginia Tech (7-5-3, 1-5-1)) in Blacksburg, Va., for the final regular season game of the season on Friday at 6 p.m.
The Tigers outshot the Terriers 15 (7) to 4 (1). The only shot on goal for Wofford was their PK in the 88th minute.
Senior captain Joran Gerbet put away another PK in the 43rd minute to put Clemson on top; Gerbet now has five goals on the season and they have all come from free kicks or penalties. In the 84th minute, Tyler Trimnal and James Kelly – who just score goals – realized they couldn’t both score on the same play,
so Misei Yoshizawa and Kelly assisted on Trimnal’s fifth goal of the season to make it 2-0.
Quickly on Trimnal and Kelly and their finishing prowess: Trimnal is averaging 1.49 points per 90 minutes and Kelly averages a whopping 2.46 points per 90 minutes. To put that in perspective, Kelly would rank No. 2 in the country (Akron’s Emil Jaaskelainen leads at an amazing 2.94 points per game with 20 goals, 7 assists) and Trimnal would be 34th in the NCAA.
Gerbet is the leader for Clemson in that category, coming in at 40th with 1.38.
Prick of the Game is Wofford backup keeper Kyle Nicoll. The sophomore from New Jersey now has more yellow cards on the season (1) than he has minutes played in his collegiate career for yapping at the ref in the last two minutes of the game.
The Hokies have had an odd season in 2024 – starting 5-0-1 in the first six games, but are just 2-5-1 in the last 8. Sure, that coincides with getting into ACC play as their only win in the conference came at Syracuse way back on Sept. 13. Since then, they are 0-5-1 in the conference and have been outscored 9-2.
That being said, they’ve been in every game – biggest margin is two goals in any of those six games. In seven ACC games, they’ve had more SOG than their opponents, but have been outscored 9-4 in those games.
They have 14 different goal scorers and 17 different goal contributors. Ethan Hackenberg has five goals and an assist, while Oliver Roche has four goals. Alex Perez (3g, 3a) and Malick Thiaw (3, 1) are also ones to keep an eye on. Those four players have combined for 98 shots with 52 on goal.
Between the pipes, Cooper Wenzel has been more than solid. He’s given up just 14 goals in 15 games – a .94 GAA that ranks 34th in the country.
I wouldn’t bet on VT being an easy out, despite their record. It took a literal last-second goal last year at Riggs for Clemson to win, however, Clemson is 10-3-5 against VT all-time and the Tigers last loss was in 2009 to the Hokies. Eight of the 18 games have gone to at least overtime, though.
A key for us will be the play of Arthur Duquenne on the left flank to combat VT’s 4-3-3 lineup. He will likely have a few battles with VT’s captain Willie Cardona, the Hokies’ rightback that was named to the ACC preseason Watch List.
The sophomore Duquenne has started 30 games over one-plus seasons with the Tigers and has one goal and three assists on the 2024 campaign. The Amiens, France native had some defensive lapses earlier in the season, but has played all 90 minutes in four of the seven ACC games he has played in.
He and Remi Okunlola should get a lot of touches in the game as VT is compact defensively, but the key is avoiding lapses on the defensive side as the Hokies are a high-possession based team.
They like to pass around the back and then go over the top when that option avails itself. I think if we get into some high-pressing, we could create some issues for them and take them out of rhythm.
In Monday’s post, the ACC Standings were explained and where Clemson could land. Getting a top four seed is imperative as it means two home games in the tournament.
The Tigers are well-placed for one of those slots and have all but clinched a top four spot.
A draw or better at VT will clinch the second seed with an outside shot at the top seed and a bye. Clemson would need Syracuse to beat Pitt at home and the Tigers would need to makeup a three-goal goal-differential deficit to Pitt. Clemson wins 2-0 or more and Pitt loses 2-1 or worse would give the Tigers the top seed.
The only way Clemson doesn’t finish top four is if it loses, UNC (v. BC), Stanford (v. Cal), and Duke (v. ND) win while Duke makes up a five-goal GD deficit. Still mathematically possible and Duke is the No. 1 scoring offense in the country at 3.36 goals per game.
So, with the ACC mostly settled, what do we look like nationally for the NCAA tournament? Well, it’s murky.
The good news is that in 2021, we won the title as an 8th seed and as a nine-seed in 2023. The last update from the D1 Committee’s Top 16 was back on Oct. 17 and they had us as the 16th seed. Since then, we’ve beaten USC Upstate 6-0, Syracuse 6-1 and Wofford 2-1 (I couldn’t find a date on the next release).
Since the Oct. 17 release, here’s what the 15 teams in front of us have done (W-L-T | GD)
- Ohio State (2-0-1 | +3)
- Pitt (2-0-0 | +4)
- Georgetown (2-0-1 | +6)
- Stanford (0-1-1 | -1)
- Maryland (0-2-1 | -4)
- UNC (1-1-0 | 0)
- Duke (3-0-0 | +9)
- Denver (1-0-0 | +4)
- Marshall (1-0-2 | +3)
- SMU (1-1-0 | -1)
- Hofstra (1-1-0 | 0)
- West Virginia (2-0-1 | +2)
- Missouri State (1-0-1 | +1)
- Western Michigan (1-0-1 | +3)
- Cornell (1-1-0 | 0)
- Clemson (3-0-0 | +12)
Presently, Clemson comes in at No. 16 in RPI – but we were lower on Oct. 17, so it’s not a one-for-one. Clemson is 1-2-1 versus Quad 1, 3-0-0 in Quad 2 games, 3-0-0 in Quad 3 and 4-0-1 in Quad 4. Taking those into account, the draw against No. 183 Holy Cross (4-9-3) is the worst result on the schedule.
We also had the preseason Nos. 2, 5, 6, 15, 24 and 25 on our schedule. While UNC (6) and Stanford (5) have held up their end of the bargain, the other four teams are a combined 26-18-14 and currently rank 34th, 47th, 62nd and 63rd in RPI. Add in games against Nos. 192, 183, 181, 168 and 146 and that’s how we get to the 73rd ranked SOS, which ultimately accounts for 75% of RPI ranking.
As noted by
@BoomBoom82, No. 1 Ohio State tied Michigan State, so a Tigers win on Friday could put us back in the top spot where we started the season in the United Coaches Poll (Ohio State also travels to No. 10 Maryland on Sunday). What that means for RPI and the Committee? Probably won’t be the top seed, but being 8th seed or better gets you at least two home games in the NCAA Tournament.
Let’s take care of the Hokies and get ready for the ACC Tournament!
Go Tigers! Beat VT!
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