Attack on Israel and intelligence failure

[BionicTiger]

Russia might back up Iran though. Which makes things complicated.

Which also means it’s in the world’s best interest to keep Ukraine in the fight. Limits the resources Russia has to give Iran.

They could, I suppose. Russia is in an untenable position right now. Helping Iran would jeopardize that further. Financially, they have issues. Major issues. Committing resources to Hamas and Hezbollah would strain them further. It would also increase the risk that NATO or another iterative western alliance would get involved. Russia does not want that right now. They can’t risk that. In short, I’d be surprised if russia would be willing to offer much help and if they did that it would be sufficient to alter the balance.

I think the primary danger with Russia would be providing material for a tactical nuclear weapon to Hamas or Hezbollah. They’d do it in such a way that it would be difficult to tie back to Russian state actors. Even that would be fraught with risks though. The degree of surveillance currently would make that quite difficult to execute.

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

They could, I suppose. Russia is in an untenable position right now. Helping Iran would jeopardize that further. Financially, they have issues. Major issues. Committing resources to Hamas and Hezbollah would strain them further. It would also increase the risk that NATO or another iterative western alliance would get involved. Russia does not want that right now. They can’t risk that. In short, I’d be surprised if russia would be willing to offer much help and if they did that it would be sufficient to alter the balance.

I think the primary danger with Russia would be providing material for a tactical nuclear weapon to Hamas or Hezbollah. They’d do it in such a way that it would be difficult to tie back to Russian state actors. Even that would be fraught with risks though. The degree of surveillance currently would make that quite difficult to execute.

Russia benefits from foreign policy fatigue in the US, oil prices going up, and their time honored tradition of trying to make us look bad

 

[leetp]

Religion is the scourge of humanity. How many more people need to die over made up mythical figures?

Lol that you think this is about religion. This is about 3rd world tyrants exploiting the weak to gain outsized leverage against a first world superpower. Many of the citizens of Israel, including the Palestinians, are not zealots. A significant portion are said to be not that religious at all.

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

Lol that you think this is about religion. This is about 3rd world tyrants exploiting the weak to gain outsized leverage against a first world superpower. Many of the citizens of Israel, including the Palestinians, are not zealots. A significant portion are said to be not that religious at all.

The current government of Israel is dominated by right-wing settler zealots like Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

 

[Clemson Goat]

Russia benefits from foreign policy fatigue in the US, oil prices going up, and their time honored tradition of trying to make us look bad

Add North Korea, China, and Iran to this list. If China invades Taiwan within the next year my theory will be right . Weaken our defense by being involved in Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

Got to remember Biden has already stated we can no longer supply Ukraine with missiles because we were running out.
Biden is the weakest leader we've had since Carter.

 

[drnuckles6]

Getting this much wrong in the span of a single sentence is almost impressive.

I forgot our resident James Bond who wants to bomb seemingly everyone into submission. Can you relax pal?

 

[BionicTiger]

I forgot our resident James Bond who wants to bomb seemingly everyone into submission. Can you relax pal?

You're out of your depth here. Quote my post advocating bombing anyone, though. I’ll wait.

 

[Clemson Goat]

WSJ News Exclusive | Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut.

www.wsj.com

 

[CU Alumnus]

The target for a nuke ?

Tehran. Once Iranian involvement is proven.

At that point Iran and Hamas will have completed the ‘fvck around’ phase and have moved to the ‘find out’ phase.

Once again - this is a possibility. Not a prediction.

 

[BionicTiger]

WSJ News Exclusive | Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut.

www.wsj.com

Shocking.

 

[drnuckles6]

Tehran. Once Iranian involvement is proven.

Iran and Hamas have completed the ‘fvck around’ phase and have moved to the ‘find out’ phase.

So Israel is going to decide to nuke Tehran based on some level of Iranian pre-knowledge of an attack? That's not even confirmed yet? Not even George W Bush was that stupid.

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

Tehran. Once Iranian involvement is proven.

At that point Iran and Hamas will have completed the ‘fvck around’ phase and have moved to the ‘find out’ phase.

I’ll pass on nuking a million odd civilians.

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

So Israel is going to decide to nuke Tehran based on some level of Iranian pre-knowledge of an attack? That's not even confirmed yet? Not even George W Bush was that stupid.

Iran was 100% involved. No doubt about that. It’s a retarded and sick idea regardless

 

[BionicTiger]

So Israel is going to decide to nuke Tehran based on some level of Iranian pre-knowledge of an attack? That's not even confirmed yet? Not even George W Bush was that stupid.

I mean the article like 2 or 3 posts above yours said that Iran security officials helped plan and gave the green light for the attacks last week at meetings in Beirut with Hezbollah and Hamas leaders….something anyone with an iq higher than 14 probably already knew. Do keep up.

That said, nuking Tehran would be very stupid.

 

[drnuckles6]

Iran was 100% involved. No doubt about that. It’s a retarded and sick idea regardless

Some in Iran likely had some knowledge but the WSJ article is not confirmation of any planning from Iran's military or revolutionary guards. We'll see on that front. But it certainly makes sense that they want to prevent the U.S. becoming formal treaty allies with Saudi Arabia. DC and Biden's golden boy Jake Sullivan gambled on trading our security for owning the republicans and it failed.

 

[drnuckles6]

I mean the article like 2 or 3 posts above yours said that Iran security officials helped plan and gave the green light for the attacks last week at meetings in Beirut with Hezbollah and Hamas leaders….something anyone with an iq higher than 14 probably already knew. Do keep up.

That said, nuking Tehran would be very stupid.

US intelligence has not confirmed anything yet. I don't care what the Wall Street Journal or the Foundation for Defense of Democracies says on this. But sure they're involved. It certainly makes sense given what Biden has tried to do and is largely a big self own on our part.

 

[BionicTiger]

US intelligence has not confirmed anything yet. I don't care what the Wall Street Journal or the Foundation for Defense of Democracies says on this. But sure they're involved. It certainly makes sense given what Biden has tried to do and is largely a big self own on our part.

LOL. Makes sense given what Biden has tried to do? What in the actual fück are you rambling about?

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[BionicTiger]

USS Gerald Ford headed east near Palermo right now. Multiple arleigh Burke class destroyers in the group along with some other notables. This CSG was already in the vicinity. The destroyers brought in from western med. Positioning for show of force and to assist with US hostage rescues, most likely.

 

[jakefest]

Weird hill to die on on both sides.

Cash in escrow (so-to-speak) might as well be cash in hand--so the "lie" thing is a bit overstated.

Conversely, $6B for a nation-state isn't all that much. In Iran's case, it's around 1.5% of their GDP--so both exactly the thing that funded this atrocity.

Either way, I'd rather we didn't give them squat. It's a bad look no matter how you spin it.

This ^^^^

The shocking part though is Blinken knew before they decided to release the funds.

 

[leetp]

The current government of Israel is dominated by right-wing settler zealots like Ben Gvir and Smotrich.

But are they nationalists or devout Jews? Is this about historic ties to a homeland and a desire to see it restored or about a staunchly religious Hebrew people serving the will of God?

These are serious questions that I can't say I know for sure--but I am skeptical of the overplayed religious angle.

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[scotchtiger]

View embedded media

I’m far from an expert, but it sure seems that both US and Israeli intelligence are deteriorating due to political dysfunction.

 

[BlueRidgedf]

Leftwing Hamas supporters. Why would any Jew vote Democrat ?

 

[BionicTiger]

I’m far from an expert, but it sure seems that both US and Israeli intelligence are deteriorating due to political dysfunction.

Historically, Israel is very good and the us is the best from a SIGINT perspective. Both are among the best from a HUMINT perspective too. What’s not being said is that this is a failure of western intelligence. It isn’t just the us and Israel. I think both face issues that are affecting them operationally. But, I’m interested to find out if anyone else had heard whispers and what was known. Allied European services would have warned Israel if they knew/heard anything credible. Find it interesting that based on what is known, it doesn’t sound like anyone knew it was coming.

 

[Clemson Goat]

Hezbollah warns U.S. to stay out or we will attack you.

Missiles now being fired from Lebanon.

 

[Clemson Goat]

Leftwing Hamas supporters. Why would any Jew vote Democrat ?

View embedded media

If they want to fight for it send their ass to the front line .

 

[CU Alumnus]

So Israel is going to decide to nuke Tehran based on some level of Iranian pre-knowledge of an attack? That's not even confirmed yet? Not even George W Bush was that stupid.

Read where I updated that post. I clarified my point.

I’ll pass on nuking a million odd civilians.

Even if you felt like it was the only way to protect your own country? The lives of your countrymen?

I’m not saying it’s a good idea. Or that it will likely happen. But it is a possibility. And it could set off a powder keg that destroys a significant portion of the region.

Personally I’d try to find a way to hack into their nuclear program and detonate something. Sneaky warfare. Kind of like the thing with the centrifuges.

 

[CU Alumnus]

And ready for the next bit of intrigue in all of this?

I saw a report on Twitter (so TIFWIW) that Hamas is claiming now that they bought the rockets they used from …. wait for it …..

…..Ukraine!

Holy crap.

Of course that might be a load of bull that Russia told Iran to tell them to say.

Or the whole report could be bogus.

 

[lctiger831]

Israel isn’t going to nuke anybody. Remember, KSA hates Iran just as much as Israel. Plus, more and more countries have been mending relationships with Israel throughout the years. The Arab nations know that a relationship with Israel is in their best interest (monetarily) because of the ties with the US.

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

But are they nationalists or devout Jews? Is this about historic ties to a homeland and a desire to see it restored or about a staunchly religious Hebrew people serving the will of God?

These are serious questions that I can't say I know for sure--but I am skeptical of the overplayed religious angle.

I’m not in a position to judge their piety. I feel confident in saying that they believe Jews are entitled to all of modern Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza as ordained by god. Netanyahu held up a map at the UN showing no Palestine, only Israel, and he’s more moderate than those two.

 

[BionicTiger]

And ready for the next bit of intrigue in all of this?

I saw a report on Twitter (so TIFWIW) that Hamas is claiming now that they bought the rockets they used from …. wait for it …..

…..Ukraine!

Holy crap.

Of course that might be a load of bull that Russia told Iran to tell them to say.

Christ on a tricycle.

 

[lctiger831]

Tehran. Once Iranian involvement is proven.

At that point Iran and Hamas will have completed the ‘fvck around’ phase and have moved to the ‘find out’ phase.

Once again - this is a possibility. Not a prediction.

Kill civilians? The majority of the country hates how religious it is. A lot of the old heads remember that Iran used to be the Vegas of the Middle East.

 

[Clemson Goat]

People had better wake up . Hamas has support from our own Congress known as The Squad. The Squad hates Israel and has publicly said so. There's a reason why Omar was remove from the intelligent committee.

Israel has called up 300k military personnel. This is an all out war for Israel's survival .

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

Read my update. I clarified my point.

Even if you felt like it was the only way to protect your own country? The lives of your countrymen?

I’m not saying it’s a good idea. Or that it will happen. But it is a possibility.

Personally I’d try to find a way to hack into their nuclear program and detonate something. Sneaky warfare. Kind of like the thing with the centrifuges.

There would be some scenario, yes, but that’s not happening now.

I’m sure they’ve tried everything under the sun espionage wise. Iran’s going to get the bomb. They have a lot of smart people and aren’t to be underestimated.

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

People had better wake up . Hamas has support from our own Congress known as The Squad. The Squad hates Israel and has publicly said so. There's a reason why Omar was remove from the intelligent committee.

Israel has called up 300k military personnel. This is an all out war for Israel's survival .

Disagree. What happened was an unfortunately well-executed assault to scuttle Israeli-Saudi dialogue. Hamas, Hezbollah, etc don’t have any serious belief they’re going to waltz into Tel Aviv any time soon. Drawing Israel into urban fighting in Gaza or the mountains of Southern Lebanon is a different question

 

[TigerGrowls]

Hezbollah warns U.S. to stay out or we will attack you.

Missiles now being fired from Lebanon.

American citizens best be prepared for militants to randomly attack in the streets of the cities in particular. Be aware and be ready with your constitutionally protected rights to bear arms.

 

[scotchtiger]

I’m not in a position to judge their piety. I feel confident in saying that they believe Jews are entitled to all of modern Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza as ordained by god. Netanyahu held up a map at the UN showing no Palestine, only Israel, and he’s more moderate than those two.

There never was a Palestine, right? It was Ottoman Empire then a British territory. Than given to the Jews.

 

[drnuckles6]

Disagree. What happened was an unfortunately well-executed assault to scuttle Israeli-Saudi dialogue. Hamas, Hezbollah, etc don’t have any serious belief they’re going to waltz into Tel Aviv any time soon. Drawing Israel into urban fighting in Gaza or the mountains of Southern Lebanon is a different question

We'll see as the word here in DC is that the Biden admin wants to keep talks going. But yes preventing Saudi from receiving security guarantees from the U.S. definitely played a role in the timing of this. And to be honest I'm glad as I don't think the U.S. should be trading its military for MbS.

 

[anon_5e8aassgcbjz1]

We'll see as the word here in DC is that the Biden admin wants to keep talks going. But yes preventing Saudi from receiving security guarantees from the U.S. definitely played a role in the timing of this. And to be honest I'm glad as I don't think the U.S. should be trading its military for MbS.

If I'm Israel, that has to be the priority after responding in force to Hamas. They're right to deal out some pain, but I worry that it's a grave misstep to be goaded into broader fighting at the expense of normalization. Don't give Hamas and Iran what they want.

Have to assume Hamas is prepared for Israel to enter Gaza. No clue how Israel can trust any intelligence they have on targets there. Sensible goal would be to focus fire on the border and create a larger buffer while continuing to push hard on the diplomatic front.