Fair enough. Celebrate away. Just don’t Ray Ray the ball before the end zone.
Kamala/Walz 2024
- Thread starter okclem
- Start date
Fair enough. Celebrate away. Just don’t Ray Ray the ball before the end zone.
Trump is basically pulling the same base numbers he did in 16/20. Harris seems to be gaining traction and adding voters, especially after the debate debacle. There's no question that she had a large deficit to make up via the lack of enthusiasm about another Biden term, and she's bridged that gap very quickly and seems to be building on it.
In terms of interpreting data, I would posit that it's not a coincidence that Trump has been flailing recently with all kinds of nonsensical free money offers to basically every sector of society while his staff also pressured Robinson to drop out of NC, and of course he and Vance have latched on to this ridiculous pet eating story like some kind of desperation Hail Mary.
That said, I do sadly believe it will be a very close race and will not feel good until the final tallies are in for these hotly contested swing states. Just seems like Kamala is really starting to build some momentum again after her initial surge.
I honestly have no idea how they expect polling to be super accurate. I have no clue how it works, so maybe there are some methods. But these sample sizes seem so low and so many people now simply don’t answer phone calls or respond to anything. I’ve been able to vote for 23 years and have never responded to a poll.
Seems the types voting for each candidate are ever shifting also. I think Trump voters include new and different demos from 2020. And then there are people like me who they lost since 2020.
Kamala is a very very different candidate from Biden too. Same thing. The only similar voters will be the true believers (see dpic and tboon above) and the anti Trump voters. She will perform wildly different among many other demos. Biden was also the “safe” pick - moderate, former VP, long-time senator. Also kind of a aww shucks likable guy to some. Kamala is more unknown, more liberal and has been a poorly perceived VP. She’s also much less likable.
So I’m not sure any polling adjustments will help, or just be offset by more shifting variables.
I also think there's a possibility we don't see the normal bump for Trump's actual votes vs the polls. His age is really showing lately, and the things he are saying get increasingly outlandish and somewhat fascist. With so many Republicans speaking out against him now, having voices like Dick Cheney gives some of these non-MAGA types a permission structure to break away from the deplorables.
Robinson seems like a lunatic so glad they are trying to pressure him to exit.
I hate the money offers. A very democrat thing to do (student loans, more entitlements, housing down payments, etc all while chanting tax the rich…). Just another reason I don’t support Trump - even from a policy standpoint.
I don’t think many everyday Americans spend one second thinking about that stuff to be honest.
What I do think is interesting is how much she has improved her favorable ratings since becoming the nominee. I also think Walz vs Vance has been a huge win for her.
I think getting Walz out there will provide some of the same comfort for people who liked the safety of Biden. Walz presents really well to moderates, even though he is more liberal than many of them, he speaks the language and comes across as authentic.
The VP debates normally don't make much difference,but Vance could continue to hurt Trump if he keeps making the gaffes that frankly turn a lot of people off.
I keep wondering if Robinson being a disaster in NC will give that state to Harris? Certainly can't help Trump.
Did you actually vet any of those numbers? Nope, of course you didn't, just believed it because you wanted to believe it.
You need help.
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LIES, LIES, LIES. Nothing you post can be trusted.
You know what's coming......So you're going to use a scene that happened under Trump to make a point about Democrats?
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — Philadelphia is seeing some of its lowest violent crime rates in years. While city leaders believe more work remains, Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel is optimistic as crime in the city is at its lowest rate in over a decade.
"It's promising," Bethel said. "The city has endured a lot over these last three or four years. It's exciting to come out of the start of 2024, seeing almost 38% reduction in our homicides and more importantly, almost 42% reduction in our shootings."
The commissioner added there is a 50% decline in youth homicides.
Bethel, who became police commissioner in January, said he's proud of his team who, every day, face the unknown.
"I can't tell you, Natasha, how it's such an honor to be leading these men and women. The resiliency that they've displayed," Bethel said. "Also, credit to our homicide unit. We have almost an 80% clearance rate on the offenses, the homicides that are occurring."
Violent crime rates are declining in Philadelphia. Here's why, according to Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel.
Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel opens up about his extensive safety plan and the city's declining violent crime numbers.www.cbsnews.com
FAKE NEWS!!!
It's always fake news to you America haters if we get any good news about our country, but in this case, it's also corroborated by other sources.
If the Post Office says mail will be delayed, it's because Trump installed DeJoy for exactly that reason - to delay the mail in the 2020 election.
In some swing states, the votes will be delayed due to Republican legislatures passing laws that disallow counting mail-in ballots before election day/night.
In Georgia, it will be delayed because of the ignorant decision by the maga controlled election board to hand-count the ballots.
Stop using the moronic, conspiratorial decisions from YOUR party to blame it on the Democrats, you pathetically sore loser.
Pay heed.
FBI Whistleblower Urges Americans to Vote, Arm Yourself, Stock up 3-4 Months Supply of Food and Water, and Pray 🙏
“This is a warning, to the American people I say.. I personally have no confidence the FBI will reign in its own conduct.”
•Marcus Allen, a former FBI staff operations specialist choked up as he spoke about his years of suffering for lawfully expressing dissent for the actions of the FBI & DOJ..
• higher-ups “accused him of promoting conspiratorial views and unreliable information” for questioning how many FEDS were present at J6.
FBI Whistleblower Urges Americans to Vote, Arm Yourself, Stock up 3-4 Months Supply of Food and Water, and Pray 🙏
“This is a warning, to the American people I say.. I personally have no confidence the FBI will reign in its own conduct.”
•Marcus Allen, a former FBI staff operations specialist choked up as he spoke about his years of suffering for lawfully expressing dissent for the actions of the FBI & DOJ..
• higher-ups “accused him of promoting conspiratorial views and unreliable information” for questioning how many FEDS were present at J6.
This bullshit AGAIN? He lied Growls, he lied. The numbers that he "claimed" were transported dropped from 300,000 down to 750 or so when he gave his affidavit. He also did not lose the trailer and nobody else could corroborate his story and follow-up investigations came up with nothing as well. Because he didn't know what the fvck he was talking about.
Having said that, you know why there could be completed ballots transported across state lines? When college students, people living out of state or those taking care of loved ones in another state request an absentee ballot. That's how and that is NOT illegal.
Grow up Loser
This is correct. Fully treasonous actions are being committed daily by this communist admin.
Harris and Biden used an executive order to override all of our immigration laws and have been flying in 80,000 illegals into the country every month. The total number of illegals flown in through the CBP One App is 1.3 million.
Did anybody consent to that? Did anyone even ask the American people if they wanted to do this? How is this not a complete and total violation of the United States Constitution.
You shouldn’t be able to change our immigration laws by executive order.
Harris and Biden used an executive order to override all of our immigration laws and have been flying in 80,000 illegals into the country every month. The total number of illegals flown in through the CBP One App is 1.3 million.
Did anybody consent to that? Did anyone even ask the American people if they wanted to do this? How is this not a complete and total violation of the United States Constitution.
You shouldn’t be able to change our immigration laws by executive order.
Wow, hope he's right about Pennsylvania because that would seal the deal.
Great article - a snippet
"In a sign of Harris’ recent momentum, some 47% of likely voters said they think she will win the election, regardless of whether they support her. That’s more than the four in 10 who said Trump would win.
Likely voters are increasingly important to campaign strategists as early voting begins in key states, and often are a better predictor of the outcome on Election Day.
Her inroads with voters in part reflect a policy battle in which she is outperforming or closing the gap with Trump on a range of economic issues. Harris has the upper hand on housing costs, pay raises and personal debt, while likely swing-state voters trust Trump more on the stock market, gas prices and interest rates.
But on issues like balancing the federal budget and taxes — issues that are traditionally friendly turf for Republicans — neither candidate has a significant edge.
Yet the poll shows Harris has turned that weakness into a strength following her debate with Trump earlier this month: 43% of likely swing-state voters now say Harris has detailed policy positions, compared to 40% for Trump. That’s a net 5-point improvement for Harris from August."
