I just posted an update from the major markets. At worst, Trump is 61.7/-160. At best, Harris is 40/150 (paradoxically this also at a site where Trump is near highest at 65.4/-190 [Points Bet]).
Let's talk polls and betting odds
- Thread starter leetp
- Start date
I think the GOP has mainly only surged in in-person early voting. Look at Nevada. A lot of GOPers are voting early in person but there are a lot of Dems voting by mail early too. Generally EV makes your ED turnout lower. In 2020 the GOP pushed ED voting and the Dems pushed EV, meaning the Dems had way less of the percentage on ED. We don't know that this "should" lead to more GOP votes cast. We won't know that until after Election Day.
Republicans will still get off work and go Vote on election day in huge numbers as they always do.
What you say sounds reasonable. And, yes, GOP'ers still have an aversion to mail-in voting (I certainly do). And as I said, PA is mail-in only...no in-person EV.
Still, in general, a larger window to vote should lead to more total votes--even if only nominal. And even just a nominal increase for GOP is not ideal for Dems.
There is another poll I often cite when talking demographics, and that is the long running Gallup poll on political ideology (Conversative vs. Liberal vs. Independent). Conservatives and Moderates are roughly split at 36 and 37% of the country. Libs makeup 25%. My takeaway from this, getting a greater percentage nationwide voting is an advantage for GOP. To your point, Dems get-out-the-vote in dense urban areas that go 85-90% Dems is the only reason Dems every win a nation-wide election. In an admittedly very shallow interpretation, Dems should never win a nation-wide election.
I just don’t see how she over polls.
She is a lackluster candidate that does not bring any authentic enthusiasm.
She is a horrible, horrible candidate. That should be expected when you have an appointing instead of an election.
Does anyone really believe people are going to get off their ass to vote for a cackling hyena? lol, not happening.
Correct. There is a reason why she was one of the first candidates to drop out 4 years ago in the primary. A terrible candidate. It's all about the Never Trumpers. That's why we have seen the divisive tone and rhetoric recently, especially from main stream media and other arms of the democratic party. The restart of the comparisons to Hitler is so despicable. Such a slap in the face to the families that were affected by the holocaust. Legacy media is on a downward path and Bezos knows it.
I personally know at least 10 deep blue Jewish democrats voting for Trump. They don’t like how democrats treat the Jews and Israel.
You will see a large lurch to the right among black voters and Jewish voters. The blacks are pissed that immigrants are taking dollars that traditionally go to their neighborhoods.
Here are some of the latest polls:
Race | Poll | Results | | Spread | ||||
National | TIPP | Trump 48 | Harris 48 | | | | | Tie |
Michigan | Washington Post | Harris 47 | Trump 46 | | | | | Harris+1 |
Michigan | MNS/Mitchell Research | Harris 47 | Trump 48 | | | | | Trump+1 |
Pennsylvania | FOX News | Trump 50 | Harris 49 | | | | | Trump+1 |
Pennsylvania | Quinnipiac | Trump 49 | Harris 47 | | | | | Trump+2 |
Pennsylvania | Susquehanna | Trump 46 | Harris 46 | | | | | Tie |
Pennsylvania | CNN* | Trump 48 | Harris 48 | | | | | Tie |
Wisconsin | Marquette | Harris 50 | Trump 49 | | | | | Harris+1 |
Wisconsin | CNN* | Harris 51 | Trump 45 | | | | | Harris+6 |
Minnesota | Rasmussen Reports | Harris 50 | Trump 47 | | | | | Harris+3 |
Michigan | FOX News | Harris 49 | Trump 49 | | | | | Tie |
Michigan | USA Today/Suffolk | Harris 47 | Trump 47 | | | | | Tie |
Michigan | CNN | Harris 48 | Trump 43 | Kennedy 3 | West 1 | Oliver 0 | Stein 2 | Harris+5 |
North Carolina | FOX News | Trump 50 | Harris 49 | | | | | Trump+1 |
New Hampshire | St. Anselm | Harris 51 | Trump 46 | | | | | Harris+5 |
New Hampshire | Rasmussen Reports | Harris 48 | Trump 47 | | | | | Harris+1 |
National | Rasmussen Reports | Trump 48 | Harris 46 | | | | | Trump+2 |
Celebrity poll aggregator site, 538, has Trump +0.4 in PA. For the electoral college, they have Trump at 52% to Harris' 48%.
How many of the R early voters are simply pulling their vote forward as opposed to waiting to vote on election day? If R's who traditionally vote on election day, now vote early, they aren't there for the "normal" R election-day surge.
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Yeah Rasmussen is generally a garbage pollster.Not sure I believe MN with Harris at only +3. If so, wow
The poll I am waiting on is the Selzer Poll of Iowa. Should be out this weekend. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2, which was down from whatever he won it by in 2016 (may have been 10+ but don't remember the specific number). He was up +13 in the July poll against Biden but was only +4 Against Harris in the September Poll. Selzer is a very good pollster, they had Trump +7 in their final 2020 poll, no one else was close.
The next poll will tell us a lot. Trump +7-9 means it will be a close election like 2020. Trump by more than 9 is a very good sign for the GOP. Trump by less than 7 is a good sign for the Dems. Trump by 5 or less is a *very* good sign for the Dems.
Another interesting poll I noticed was the Fort Hayes/Docking Institute poll of Kansas this month that showed Trump only up +5 in Kansas.
Gallup recently polled enthusiasm levels and the Dems are at the highest levels of enthusiasm since 2008. Republicans lagging behind their 2012 level
Not if a ton of Republicans have already voted early, which could be happening in some states
Not sure I follow why you think Dems should never win nation-wide elections. Yes, Dems win because they turn out well in cities, which means they get a lot of people to vote for them. A big shift happening in American politics right now is the suburbs shifting increasingly leftward.What you say sounds reasonable. And, yes, GOP'ers still have an aversion to mail-in voting (I certainly do). And as I said, PA is mail-in only...no in-person EV.
Still, in general, a larger window to vote should lead to more total votes--even if only nominal. And even just a nominal increase for GOP is not ideal for Dems.
There is another poll I often cite when talking demographics, and that is the long running Gallup poll on political ideology (Conversative vs. Liberal vs. Independent). Conservatives and Moderates are roughly split at 36 and 37% of the country. Libs makeup 25%. My takeaway from this, getting a greater percentage nationwide voting is an advantage for GOP. To your point, Dems get-out-the-vote in dense urban areas that go 85-90% Dems is the only reason Dems every win a nation-wide election. In an admittedly very shallow interpretation, Dems should never win a nation-wide election.
ummm hmm.
No one can name a policy of hers that they support, but the enthusiasm is off the charts.
I think not. Don't believe that line of reasoning for one second.
I think the bigger shift is in demographics.
Blacks will vote for Trump in higher numbers than ever before. I don't think you will look at the 2024 electoral map and think that leftism is expanding. The women and men demographics are interesting. And the Republicans will make gains with the youth vote this cycle also
If anything the big shift is too the right (or more correctly, to the center). The policies like Trangenderism are getting flushed down the toilet even when Democrats have power.
Hey Guys - I have a source who just texted me and told me the enthusiasm for the candidate that didn't recieve any votes in the 2024 primary and was the first candidate to drop out of the 2020 primary after polling less than 1% is through the roof!
Watch out!
The cackle will bring voters to the polls like a magnet.
Watch out!
The cackle will bring voters to the polls like a magnet.
Or....or....there may be a lot more republicans voting this time. That could be a possibility too.
I think there is a reason why the betting odds shifted so dramatically the last 4 weeks.
Lol it's comical isn't it. I almost am starting to think Spencer is trolling us at this point.
Brother, it is a gallup poll. Dems are saying they're excited
To some degree...perhaps even to a large degree, but a larger voting window translates to a longer opportunity to vote translates to a potential for more votes. Ultimately, R's voting early can't hurt.
If you think Trump is leading a once in a generation realignment of Black voters then I got some oceanfront property in Omaha to offload. A Howard University poll found that Harris was basically equal to Biden in terms of Black support. I also think actual voting support from the youth vote will not swing to Trump. Also, anti-trans panic stuff is an electoral loser, as has been shown time and time again, especially in 2022
Historically they've nailed some poles and missed others, but I do take their polling with a grain of salt.
There is a lot to read between the lines... Which is the type of discussion I was after when I started this thread. A sincere thank you for contributing!
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Interesting.... I'm pretty sure I read the opposite... Something to the effect that Republicans have never lost once they 've met these thresholds.... I'll see if I can find it
Yeah, i don't believe it not even for one second.
No one is enthusiastic about that cackling hyena. She had less than 1% of the vote when up against other candidates in 2020. She is extremely unlikeable.
Reminder, more than one leftist publication called for her to be removed from the ticket in 2024 because she was a drag (before the coup on Biden).
What policy of hers do you enthusiastically support?
This poll provides the basis for the notion that we have been and remain a center-right country.
If true, this would mean that Dems are at an inherent ideological disadvantage.
Therefore if Republicans can put forth a candidate that secures their base, they only need about 15% more to have an absolute majority of votes.
Generally speaking, Dems start out approximately 10 points behind. It should be a daunting mountain for them to climb. Somehow, it's not. Maybe it's because the notion that we are a center right-country is false, or maybe it's something else. We can speculate on what that something else might be in another thread.
Not a problem. I discuss this stuff with some friends so I am pretty locked in on it and find it interesting to read. I also have some friends in Kansas who would not be surprised by the state going slightly bluer this cycle. Obviously it will be a red state but just slightly less so. Some Kansas Republicans are just tired of Trump as they have a more libertarian-ish streak. Western part of the state is reliant on immigrant farm labor for the economy and eastern part of the state has the urban and suburban areas that lean more pro-choice. Those areas plus that libertarian-ish streak are why Kansas voted pro-choice in their abortion referendum. They also have a competent and well-liked Dem governor. Sam Brownback was their last GOP governor and he was widely hated by the end of his administration.
I think if the Republicans would ran an actual center right candidate, such as Nikki Haley, they would win easily.
Trump doesn't appeal to those who are center right as strongly as a traditional Republican. He appeals most to uneducated, white voters. That shows up again and again.
Who called for her to get removed?
Which policy do I support enthusiastically? The expansion of Medicare to include the costs of in-home care. As Boomers age the private care industry is going to siphon up more and more money, leaving the Boomer's kids with not that much left over. Expanding medicare to include the cost of at home care will help stop that.
He's on a roll with his litany of statements. He's like a doll with a pullstring.
You are probably the first kamala supporter i have met that can articulate one of her positions. Expanding healthcare is not really her policy though, that is a democratic policy and has been for a long time.
Like Trump came up with no tax on tips. No tax on overtime. Tarriffs. Build that wall.
What is something that is her policy that will have some effect on Americans? What has she done? What idea or policy that she has been behind makes you think she will be a good president?
I mean this woman is running on a "Turn the page" message when she is the fvcking page. She could not be more stupid if she tried. She is dumb as a box of rocks.
The no tax on tips thing is designed to give higher earning republican voters a break on their taxes by allowing them to classify their earnings as tips. Tariffs (which are beyond idiotic as a policy in 2024) and building a wall (which he didn't get done). Are not unique to Trump. Right wing populists have been pushing that for ages.
Yes, expanding healthcare is not a Kamala-specific proposal. In many ways she is a standard run of the mill Democrat on policy. Some Dem politicians have different areas they focus on (ie Biden on labor) but for the most part the party has a coherent message and platform. Can't really say the same for Republicans.
I think her proposal for a new Child Tax Credit is a very good one that will have a positive impact for Americans.
Books have tightened somewhat from this AM...
| 09:10:00 AM | | 03:30:00 PM | |
| Trump | Harris | Trump | Harris |
BetOnline | 65.5 | 37.7 | 64.91 | 38.46 |
Betfair | 62.9 | 37.3 | 62.89 | 37.31 |
Betsson | 66.7 | 38.5 | 64.5 | 40 |
Bovada | 66.7 | 37.0 | 63.6 | 40.8 |
Bwin | 66.7 | 38.5 | 65.5 | 40 |
Points Bet | 65.4 | 40.0 | 64.5 | 40.8 |
Polymarket | 65.0 | 34.9 | 60.7 | 39.4 |
Smarkets | 61.7 | 38.2 | 60.61 | 40 |
Average | 65.1 | 37.8 | 63.4 | 39.6 |
