OT: Predictions re: Middle East War

[Tygur]

Wondering what everyone is thinking happens ultimately when Israel goes into Gaza. Does Hezbelloh attack from the North? Does Iran-backed attacks continue against American assets in the region - thus pulling them into the conflict?

The way I see it is I can envision a broadening of the conflict and I’m not confident in our leadership’s ability to navigate the situation - esp given the state of our military and economy. I am concerned that this whole thing could get out of control and fast.

 

[treetiger]

I'm starting to think we will be in WWIII in a matter of months. Things are going haywire globally at a fast rate. Clemson's fall from glory in football will seem minor in comparison.

 

[PrimeIsGettingComfortable]

the world would be a better place without Hamas.

 

[DustBunny]

How hard can it be to post this to the right board?

 

[btank1994]

The middle east has been a spark plug for conflict and violence for centuries.

I'd prefer we get out and stay out, but I'm not gullible enough to believe it is that simple either.

 

[TigerMusic 79]

Luke 21:28 All of these coming events have been foretold.

 

[VTiger15]

I agree and have no confidence in this weak president and clown administration.

 

[Buzzards Roost]

Tough situation. There were very few Jews in Palestine in 1900. Not 10%. They were treated well. Since the Roman Empire ravaging the Jewish State leading to the diaspora 2000 years ago there were only a very few Jews and Christians remaining.
Enter 1920 when 100s of thousands European Jews began the great migration. Then the 1848 war creating Israel. Leading to the exit of most Palestinians to refugee camps in Jordan and Lebanon. The few who remained have grown in number to a large minority within Israel plus millions still in the camps.

We have to realize that they don’t understand or care that it was the Jewish homeland. To them it has been their land for 2000 years and they don’t care about what happened that long ago.

So I am a big supporter of the Jews and the only democracy in the Middle East. But I understand why the Palestinians are pissed having their homeland taken. The Ottomans had let them be. It would be like 300 million Chinese migrating to the west coast and pushing everyone out. (I know, we would be able to stop it. But the Palestinians could not.)

To answer the question, I think it will get worked out with US pressure and threats but no combat involvement. Just my opinion.

 

[verotiger]

I spend a lot of time in Israel. Psalm 83 comes to mind in terms of the situation as well as the conclusion.

 

[CUFam98]

Is this another conference expansion thread? The Big East is adding a football division called the Middle East?

 

[willy11b]

I just don’t understand why we have to be involved. Let Isreal police itself, but watch one of our ships get targeted by Houthi rebels

 

[Little Lebowski Urban Achiever]

Tough situation. There were very few Jews in Palestine in 1900. Not 10%. They were treated well. Since the Roman Empire ravaging the Jewish State leading to the diaspora 2000 years ago there were only a very few Jews and Christians remaining.
Enter 1920 when 100s of thousands European Jews began the great migration. Then the 1848 war creating Israel. Leading to the exit of most Palestinians to refugee camps in Jordan and Lebanon. The few who remained have grown in number to a large minority within Israel plus millions still in the camps.

We have to realize that they don’t understand or care that it was the Jewish homeland. To them it has been their land for 2000 years and they don’t care about what happened that long ago.

So I am a big supporter of the Jews and the only democracy in the Middle East. But I understand why the Palestinians are pissed having their homeland taken. The Ottomans had let them be. It would be like 300 million Chinese migrating to the west coast and pushing everyone out. (I know, we would be able to stop it. But the Palestinians could not.)

To answer the question, I think it will get worked out with US pressure and threats but no combat involvement. Just my opinion.

Agree until you claimed that we could stop the Chinese

(And I was in the military for 8 years and spent a lot of time in the Middle East)

 

[Casa_del_Tigre]

Considering Biden has voted for every war in the last 30 years, I’ll assume war is looking bullish.

 

[jroller]

Tough situation. There were very few Jews in Palestine in 1900. Not 10%. They were treated well. Since the Roman Empire ravaging the Jewish State leading to the diaspora 2000 years ago there were only a very few Jews and Christians remaining.
Enter 1920 when 100s of thousands European Jews began the great migration. Then the 1848 war creating Israel. Leading to the exit of most Palestinians to refugee camps in Jordan and Lebanon. The few who remained have grown in number to a large minority within Israel plus millions still in the camps.

We have to realize that they don’t understand or care that it was the Jewish homeland. To them it has been their land for 2000 years and they don’t care about what happened that long ago.

So I am a big supporter of the Jews and the only democracy in the Middle East. But I understand why the Palestinians are pissed having their homeland taken. The Ottomans had let them be. It would be like 300 million Chinese migrating to the west coast and pushing everyone out. (I know, we would be able to stop it. But the Palestinians could not.)

To answer the question, I think it will get worked out with US pressure and threats but no combat involvement. Just my opinion.

Reminded me of a meme that went by me on FB the other day.

(Note: this is not a personal political statement, just an interesting parallel that came to mind when I read your post.)

 

[CrouchingTiger72]

I watched the leader of Hamas(one of them anyway) on Arabic TV a week ago. The commentator asked him pretty tough straightfoward questions. It is probably out there to watch but in paraphrasing his key points.

-He knew doing what they did would prompt a large scale response and hoped it would create more attention by the Media
-He implored Hezbollah to intervene immediately
-He stated their ulitimate goal were to get Lebanon, Egypt and Syria to join against Israel militarily and intervene. He was then questioned about why he would do this without consulting those countries before their attack. He deferred to the planning and element of surprise

I see it like this. The US publically and politically has endorsed the Israeli response but still in private would prefer no large scale intervention. That may be somewhat out of our control and would likely draw us in at least in areas we have bases, personnel. in the Middle east.

 

[Bluetiger695]

I think Iran is the wildcard here. If they get involved, we'll have a global conflict. The US would be forced to defend Israel. You can't send a whole arsenal of boats to the coast, then stand down. You'd lose all credibility and negotiating power if you did.

China and especially Russia are dependent on Iranian oil. If they get cut off from Iran and the EU, they might go mental.

I could also see China pushing some buttons to see what they can get away with now that the US is funding two wars.

Hopefully we can deescalate for another year until we can get a new admin in office, get energy and manufacturing independence, and not get involved in these global skirmishes

 

[iceheart08]

Only option is to kick this can down the road as far as we can.

Not going to come to a peaceful solution anymore.

Can't stomach or tolerate regional war.

Israel is doing an amazing job of replenishing hamas's recruitment stock.

Absolutely devastating to see what Israel is doing to the Palestinian people right now in pursuit of Hamas. And it's the exact response Hamas expected and wanted, as noted above.

 

[jmm45]

Only option is to kick this can down the road as far as we can.

Not going to come to a peaceful solution anymore.

Can't stomach or tolerate regional war.

Israel is doing an amazing job of replenishing hamas's recruitment stock.

Absolutely devastating to see what Israel is doing to the Palestinian people right now in pursuit of Hamas. And it's the exact response Hamas expected and wanted, as noted above.

What exactly would you have them do? Consider that Hamas is actively trying to prevent citizens from leaving and heading south to safety, or consider that Israel and IDF are providing said citizens with warnings to leave. What of the many many Palestinians who support Hamas?

Surely you have solutions in mind to make such a flippant statement. I’m all ears.

 

[dpic73]

esp given the state of our military and economy.

Da fuq?

 

[ForzaTigre]

There's not going to be any WW3. Get off the internet and turn off Fox News.

I haven't read the thread. I'm assuming people are throwing out Bible verses left and right.

 

[Clemtron]

Wondering what everyone is thinking happens ultimately when Israel goes into Gaza. Does Hezbelloh attack from the North? Does Iran-backed attacks continue against American assets in the region - thus pulling them into the conflict?

The way I see it is I can envision a broadening of the conflict and I’m not confident in our leadership’s ability to navigate the situation - esp given the state of our military and economy. I am concerned that this whole thing could get out of control and fast.

I'll take US to cover against the spread.

 

[Buzzards Roost]

Agree until you claimed that we could stop the Chinese

(And I was in the military for 8 years and spent a lot of time in the Middle East)

I’m retired Navy. I don’t think we could beat them over there or keep them from taking Taiwan. Or keep Russia from overwhelming the Baltic states in an hour thus pulling NATO in.
But we could knock them out of the water off the west coast. Maybe

 

[Buzzards Roost]

Reminded me of a meme that went by me on FB the other day.

(Note: this is not a personal political statement, just an interesting parallel that came to mind when I read your post.)

Apropos! But the Palestinians are a little better positioned. Don’t have to worry about Smallpox and surrounded by lots of friends. And no bows and arrows.

 

[other1]

I agree and have no confidence in this weak president and clown administration.

So what exactly should Biden be doing that you actually know he isn't doing.

 

[hopefultiger13]

There's not going to be any WW3. Get off the internet and turn off Fox News.

I haven't read the thread. I'm assuming people are throwing out Bible verses left and right.

Yep... Most of the evangelical types bitch and moan about the Jews controlling the world most days. But when any fighting breaks out there, they are all about supporting them. It's not b/c they give a shit about the Jews, they are hoping that the last days are here.

IMHO, the IDF will go at it until they've spilled enough blood to satisfy themselves. HAMAS will do their usual invisible guy act and hide behind civilians. IDF will kill a bunch of civilians and HAMAS folks and take some casualties of their own. THEN things will calm down and we'll go back to the usual shit show over there with Gaza City looking the worse for wear.

Iran isn't stupid. They are not about to go head to head with a combo of the US/IDF. That won't end well for them and they know it. They will sit this out and support HAMAS in the background. Egypt isn't going to do shit. They are used to getting a lot of aid from the US and they aren't going to cut that off.

So I predict a bad time will be had by all before a retreat by everyone to the status quo

 

[BionicTiger]

Only option is to kick this can down the road as far as we can.

Not going to come to a peaceful solution anymore.

Can't stomach or tolerate regional war.

Israel is doing an amazing job of replenishing hamas's recruitment stock.

Absolutely devastating to see what Israel is doing to the Palestinian people right now in pursuit of Hamas. And it's the exact response Hamas expected and wanted, as noted above.

Christ on a tricycle…

 

[Kbouch]

There's not going to be any WW3. Get off the internet and turn off Fox News.

I haven't read the thread. I'm assuming people are throwing out Bible verses left and right.

This post is dead-on (and I'm about as conservative as they come). No one in that region except Hamas (who's now in a FAFO situation) wants war with Israel. Everything Hezbollah does in relation to Israel is carefully calculated to be all hat and no cattle, because they and Lebanon in general are an economic dumpster fire right now. And there's no way Iran sends their own people to die in a war against Israel. They would only use their Hezbollah lackeys for that, but, see above. When Israel goes into Gaza, the Arab world will rant and rave, followed by doing nothing.

Fox News (and CNN, and all of the others) are for-profit business, and the product they sell you is fear. Turn them off.

 

[iceheart08]

What exactly would you have them do? Consider that Hamas is actively trying to prevent citizens from leaving and heading south to safety, or consider that Israel and IDF are providing said citizens with warnings to leave. What of the many many Palestinians who support Hamas?

Surely you have solutions in mind to make such a flippant statement. I’m all ears.

Yes. 100%.

Only people with solutions are allowed to post online about how devastating the war/impending war will be for human beings.

 

[willy11b]

So what exactly should Biden be doing that you actually know he isn't doing.

Being cognitive?

 

[other1]

Being cognitive?

I think he's doing an adequate job under the circumstances.

 

[TigerGrowls]

I think he's doing an adequate job under the circumstances.

Man you are rationalizing on an epic level if you believe Joe is doing adequate.

 

[other1]

Man you are rationalizing on an epic level if you believe Joe is doing adequate.

So what should he be doing that wouldn't result in any escalation???

 

[Paw Pad]

So what should he be doing that wouldn't result in any escalation???

RESIGN, But not leave us Heels Up( Kamala,)

 

[Tigerus Maximus]

Yep... Most of the evangelical types bitch and moan about the Jews controlling the world most days. But when any fighting breaks out there, they are all about supporting them. It's not b/c they give a shit about the Jews, they are hoping that the last days are here.

IMHO, the IDF will go at it until they've spilled enough blood to satisfy themselves. HAMAS will do their usual invisible guy act and hide behind civilians. IDF will kill a bunch of civilians and HAMAS folks and take some casualties of their own. THEN things will calm down and we'll go back to the usual shit show over there with Gaza City looking the worse for wear.

Iran isn't stupid. They are not about to go head to head with a combo of the US/IDF. That won't end well for them and they know it. They will sit this out and support HAMAS in the background. Egypt isn't going to do shit. They are used to getting a lot of aid from the US and they aren't going to cut that off.

So I predict a bad time will be had by all before a retreat by everyone to the status quo

You are clearly a realist, sir.

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[ANEW]

Yep... Most of the evangelical types bitch and moan about the Jews controlling the world most days. But when any fighting breaks out there, they are all about supporting them. It's not b/c they give a shit about the Jews, they are hoping that the last days are here.

IMHO, the IDF will go at it until they've spilled enough blood to satisfy themselves. HAMAS will do their usual invisible guy act and hide behind civilians. IDF will kill a bunch of civilians and HAMAS folks and take some casualties of their own. THEN things will calm down and we'll go back to the usual shit show over there with Gaza City looking the worse for wear.

Iran isn't stupid. They are not about to go head to head with a combo of the US/IDF. That won't end well for them and they know it. They will sit this out and support HAMAS in the background. Egypt isn't going to do shit. They are used to getting a lot of aid from the US and they aren't going to cut that off.

So I predict a bad time will be had by all before a retreat by everyone to the status quo

This is a reasonable POV, however I think that this isn't a normal situation. Too many Israelis killed in too horrible a fashion. Too much embarrassment to the Israeli security apparatus and Netanyahu himself. The IDF will clear in detail. This will not be some temporary incursion into Gaza followed by a quick retreat. Civilian casualties will be avoided if possible but killing Hamas will take precedence. This won't end with the previous status quo.

Two wild card here. The Israelis and Hesbollah. If Hsbollah jumps in strong, then its game on. Israel is a wild card insofar that maybe while we have 2x CSGs in the AO the decide to go for it and widen the war themselves.

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[TigerGrowls]

 

[TigerGrowls]