OT: Predictions re: Middle East War
- Thread starter Tygur
- Start date
I do think the conflict will expand, but I don’t think Biden has the stomach for a broader conflict. His departure from Afghanistan is evidence that he has no clue how to manage situations like this. He’ll take a few pot shots at those attacking our troops, but that will be the limit of US involvement. Israel will go balls into Gaza and we’ll supply them with money and arms to do so. Once that happens, the Muslim world will become so unsettled that I could see more front(s) opened up against Israel.
Overall, it’s not a good scene and something that I personally believe would never have happened had we demonstrated more strength than weakness on the world stage. (Same goes for Ukraine, by the way)
I'm sure you do... But tell us what war we started in the middle east resulted in millions (Lowest case here is 2 million) of refugees that hate the west? Best numbers I can find are 1.1 million refugees from Iraq total... less than half of which moved into Europe and the US (<200K to the US)... That's not 2 million. And we took in about 90K Afghans... That seems < 2 million as well.
I can't think of any other wars we started.
BTW, Tucker AND Trump were all about invading Iraq at the time. It was only AFTER THE FACT (when no WMDs turned up) that they came out against it.
Just an aside question. Don't the folks that hate the West stay in these countries and the folks that actually helped the West the ones that have to flee? Asking for a friend...
I don't know man, I'm staunchly pro-Israel defending itself but things like this are sickening and will only serve to grow Hamas I'm afraid. I just saw an IDF official on TV all but admit they caused this massive loss of life in order to take out one high-ranking Hamas official. Refugees, my god - this has to stop or this war is going to quickly spread out of control.
Blast at densely populated refugee camp: The Ministry of Interior in Gaza reported that 20 homes "were completely destroyed" in the residential Jabalya Refugee Camp. "Hundreds" of dead and injured people arrived at Gaza's Indonesian hospital, its director, Dr. Atef al-Kahlout, told CNN, adding that many people are still under the rubble. Another doctor, Dr. Mohammad alRann, described a "scene no one can imagine" at the hospital — there are “charred bodies in the hundreds” and "patients and injured are on the floors, beds, corridors and reception area” of one of Gaza's largest hospital, he said."
www.cnn.com
Blast at densely populated refugee camp: The Ministry of Interior in Gaza reported that 20 homes "were completely destroyed" in the residential Jabalya Refugee Camp. "Hundreds" of dead and injured people arrived at Gaza's Indonesian hospital, its director, Dr. Atef al-Kahlout, told CNN, adding that many people are still under the rubble. Another doctor, Dr. Mohammad alRann, described a "scene no one can imagine" at the hospital — there are “charred bodies in the hundreds” and "patients and injured are on the floors, beds, corridors and reception area” of one of Gaza's largest hospital, he said."
An Israeli strike hit a Gaza refugee camp on Tuesday. Catch up on the latest developments in the war
Israeli forces said a strike on a refugee camp in northern Gaza killed a top Hamas commander responsible for the October 7 attack on Israel. Hamas denied the claim.
Biden doesn't have stomach for it? His departure from Afghanistan is evidence? By what measure do you draw these conclusions other than your own ridiculous belief in falsehoods you've fed yourself?
If we'd demonstrated more strength? Exactly. But we're still fixing the dumb shit and harm Trump did internationally.
The departure from Afghanistan was an utter failure. We left billions of US war hardware behind and plenty of Allies who were trying to get out before the Taliban took over. Biden ignored his top military commanders when he made the decision to exit the way he did. Bottom line, he’s incompetent and senile and has no business being our commander in chief.
As to Trump - I honestly don’t think our adversaries would have boldly attacked Israel or Ukraine because he was enough of a wild card to where they weren’t sure how he would react. Don’t get me wrong, I haven’t been a fan of Trump - I think he’s too much of a narcissist to be an effective leader. However, what we have now ain’t much better.
Let’s just hope this conflict doesn’t spread to WWIII, as it’s clear we’re not on the same page as Russia or China.
You think the Biden term has been equal to or better than the Trump term in terms of potus performance?
World War Obama
His envy of Donald Trump has unleashed hell on Earth
World War Obama
His envy of Donald Trump has unleashed hell on Earth
I get what you are saying, but remember that Trump made the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and Biden kept that commitment. I for what it's worth, I agree with it.
You guys know how I feel about Trump in general, but he was correct in that we do NOT need to be involved in the middle east. That place has been a shit show since the dawn of time and it doesn't look like it's going to change any time soon.
The Afghan withdrawal was ALWAYS going to be a shit show. The US spent 20 years in that country training their armed forces and providing gear for them. The best numbers I can find say that the Afghan government had a 300K member armed forces, 150K of which were combatants. The best estimates have the Tailaban with 15K fighters.
So yeah... You have the Afghan government outnumbering their enemy by 10:1 with the best equipment in the world, in fortified positions, trained for 20 years. The result was that the entire country fell in < 2 weeks, mostly w/o shots even being fired. That tells you all you need to know right there. If the Afghan government wasn't able to at least hold their own at that point, it was never going to happen. Trump was absolutely right about getting the hell out of there and Biden was right in doing what Trump ordered done.
Was the withdrawal a mess? Absolutely. I think that most folks (including the Generals in question), thought that the Afghans MIGHT be able to hold their own for a week or two. And that made it bad.
But would leaving a 2500 soldier force there have made any difference? I don't think so... That would have ben a US base in enemy territory, completely surrounded with only air access for supplies and under constant attack by the enemy. Anyone think that would have worked out well, or that Americans wouldn't have died? No way in hell Trump would have done that and no way in hell Biden would have either.
Trump would have executed the withdrawal correctly and that is the difference. The Biden administration is incompetent and didn't give a shit how it was done until it bit them in the @$$ after the fact.
He royally fvcked up the other crises on his watch but somehow you know he would have pulled out seamlessly lmao. He was responsible for 5000 Taliban fighters being released beforehand, including the current leader. Methinks he did that intentionally, knowing he was going to lose the election and Biden would be left to clean up the mess he pre-planned.
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2 Arab despots, a former Slovenian model, and a Cheeto walk into a bar
World War Obama
His envy of Donald Trump has unleashed hell on Earth
Really? So if Trump were in charge, the Afghans wouldn't have folded up like a wet blanket? Would different Generals have been in charge? Nope, b/c Biden didn't change commanders. Same result... only Trump would be pointing fingers at any and everyone but himself because HE did everything right.
Trump (just like Biden) doesn't know a damn thing about the military except that if you pay a Dr. to say you have bone spurs, you don't have to serve. That's the rich man version of running off to Canada. So do tell us how Trump would have planned such a withdrawal with absolutely no idea what he's doing? Again, same Generals in charge.
Quit being a clown. I am not arguing about Afghanistan fate. Trump would have withdrawn in a more controlled fashion getting all the Americans and military assets out. To think he would do what China Joe did is just partisan rhetoric from a proclaimed hater.
Sounds like you are the clown. Trump knows NOTHING... let me say that again... NOTHING. About military logistics. Now I'm sure that's he's told you somewhere that "No one knows more about the military than me." And I'm equally sure that you believe that. But that doesn't change the fact that he really doesn't.
Neither does Biden.
So that job was on the military to do. Trump's guys were working on it. His generals as he was so fond of calling them. Biden didn't change the command structure at all. It was a botched job... But the job was mostly botched before Biden even got into office. Trump's deal was to have all US troops out of Afghanistan by May of 2021.
Here's a document from the WH that details the withdrawal. It's as whiney and self serving as you'd expect. IE the sort of thing Trump's folks would put if Obama was withdrawing and Trump came into office during the last couple of months. But you can see that the seeds for disaster were already in the ground and growing in January 2021.
So, your contention is that somehow this would have been different b/c one guy who knows nothing about military strategy was replaced by another guy that knows nothing about military strategy and everything else remaining the same? And the reasoning is that the first guy was DONALD TRUMP. So of course it was going to be different! Who's the clown? Hint: It's YOU.
What makes you a fricking expert on anything that Trump may or may not know? I will answer for you.....NOTHING!! LOL!! Trump cares which is more than Biden and he didn't inject political BS into military decision making. Facts are facts though and Trump had an exceptional record related to international relations and military decisions. Biden just flat sucks. Take your TDS glasses off and objectively look at reality.
Orthodox and Christian Jews along with Muslims most definitely coexisted in Palestine/Israel for a good part of the last 2000 years. The violence was largely perpetrated by invaders and warring empires. Jewish population did wax and wain over the centuries, but they never actually left. But there are also times in history or some of the most brutal oppressors of Jews in the region where other Jews. It's no doubt a very sorded history.
I am reading a very insightful book on the full history of Jarusalem, called "Jarusalem," by Simon Sebag Montefiore.
For much of the pre-modern era, he heavily leverages Holy scripture--not because he's religious, but because it's largely the only written account there is. He does, however, point out contradictions and areas where archaeological evidence lends itself to alternative (heretical) conclusions. He also makes heavy use of non-canonical scriptures as well.
The notion that this is some Holy War is a modern contrivance, fueled perhaps by somewhat embellished and misunderstood Crusader period and the sick popularity of the modern Jihadi. (Okay, maybe that's a bit of an over statement; but these people have shown throughout history that they can coexist in peace)
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I'm usually diametricly opposed to anything this guy says, but I don't think he is wrong on any of his points.... Except perhaps the point about being "the only thing" can do is kick the can as far down the road as possible.
I personally would like to see Israel move into a new phase where they go largely underground take out anyone affiliated with Hamas.... Essentially hunt them down like they did the Nazis.
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I blame feckless military leadership for the Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco...right up to the commander-in-chief. To be sure, his senior military leaders let him down but Biden didn't have to wherewithall to see it.
You are spot on on your assessment of Afghanistan and the need to get out. Right call; incompetently executed.
Otherwise, I don't share everyone else's view that this is somehow going to descend into world War III. I think we are there keeping the major powers at bay while Israel sorts this out. Russia is in no position to make any further moves-- and Iran won't move because of that. China is the wild card, but I don't think China carries the big stick everyone thinks they carry.
I agree with this 100%. Biden didn't see it coming and my point in arguing here was the Trump would have done no better...
Afghanistan isn't even a real place. The British literally invented it by drawing lines on a map and putting someone in charge of that area. This is historically an area of clans and tribes that look a lot alike, but merrily kill each other all the time.
It's not going to hold together. The US put the northern tribes in charge for 20 years... and the south was largely a no man's land... The reverse is true now and before the US invastion... IE the Talaban ran things and stayed the hell out of the Northern part of the country.
You can't have a country where the folks in the country don't even want it...
Whatever man... Trump has NO EXPERTISE there. I don't have to be an expert to know that someone with no medical training and who's never been to medical school doesn't know shit about heart surgery. Someone who has no experience with the military and didn't server doesn't know shit either. Of course, all Trump would have to say to you is that no one knows more about heart surgery than him and you'd be telling us all how he's the best cardiologist in the world. We get it... anything and everything Trump does is the greatest and anything that doesn't work out MUST be someone else's fault.
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Pakistan begins mass deportation of Afghan refugees
The Pakistani government gave 1.7 million Afghan refugees living in the country until Nov. 1 to leave voluntarily or face arrest and forced deportation.
www.cbsnews.com
1.7 million deported...
‘Trump cares’ might be the funniest thing you’ve ever posted you poor retarded child.
Some thoughts from a guy who has worked the AOR for 11 years.
- Iranian back militia groups have been attacking US bases in the area ever since we finished off ISIS. I don't want to say its "no big deal" but its not uncommon, we're prepared for it, and its really status quo for the AOR. These sort of attacks aren't dragging us into WW3.
- About every 5 years, plus or minus, Israel has to crack skulls in Gaza and Lebanon. Again, this is nothing new. It isn't starting WW3.
- Yep....Israel shwacking Palestinian zealots ensures a new generation of Palestinian zealots. It's an ugly ride but there's no way off it. You don't have terrorists kill 1200 of your people and not retaliate 10 fold.
- These zealots are literally bred from birth to hate Jews. They are as racist as it comes.
- I support Israel but temper that support with the fact Israel doesn't respectfully acknowledge that their entire existence is contingent on US Aid. They spy on us almost as much as China. The US govt should remind them of our generosity at every opportunity.
- Do you see the Arab nations rising up and offering the Palestinians a home in their countries? This problem could be solved by giving the Palestinians a new home away from Israeli border. Saudi has plenty of land and a need for workers. I don't see them offering to help. Why? Saud believe Palestinian are beneath them. Same with Egypt, Jordan and the GCC nations.
- The troops the US are sending are to improve our defensive posture in the region AND to signal to Iran to shut the **** up and don't even think about doing anything.
- Anything out of Yemen targeting Israel or the US is not the Houthi's.....it's Iran. Houthi's may be involved but its' Iranian SOF training, supplying and giving them direction. Now you know why the Sauds didn't want the Houthi's to have control of Yemen.
- Publicly the Arab governments will make pronouncements in favor of the Palestinians. Behind the scenes they will quietly support Israel. Why because they hate Iran and is Israel fights Iran.
- Iran is the real enemy here.
- Iranian back militia groups have been attacking US bases in the area ever since we finished off ISIS. I don't want to say its "no big deal" but its not uncommon, we're prepared for it, and its really status quo for the AOR. These sort of attacks aren't dragging us into WW3.
- About every 5 years, plus or minus, Israel has to crack skulls in Gaza and Lebanon. Again, this is nothing new. It isn't starting WW3.
- Yep....Israel shwacking Palestinian zealots ensures a new generation of Palestinian zealots. It's an ugly ride but there's no way off it. You don't have terrorists kill 1200 of your people and not retaliate 10 fold.
- These zealots are literally bred from birth to hate Jews. They are as racist as it comes.
- I support Israel but temper that support with the fact Israel doesn't respectfully acknowledge that their entire existence is contingent on US Aid. They spy on us almost as much as China. The US govt should remind them of our generosity at every opportunity.
- Do you see the Arab nations rising up and offering the Palestinians a home in their countries? This problem could be solved by giving the Palestinians a new home away from Israeli border. Saudi has plenty of land and a need for workers. I don't see them offering to help. Why? Saud believe Palestinian are beneath them. Same with Egypt, Jordan and the GCC nations.
- The troops the US are sending are to improve our defensive posture in the region AND to signal to Iran to shut the **** up and don't even think about doing anything.
- Anything out of Yemen targeting Israel or the US is not the Houthi's.....it's Iran. Houthi's may be involved but its' Iranian SOF training, supplying and giving them direction. Now you know why the Sauds didn't want the Houthi's to have control of Yemen.
- Publicly the Arab governments will make pronouncements in favor of the Palestinians. Behind the scenes they will quietly support Israel. Why because they hate Iran and is Israel fights Iran.
- Iran is the real enemy here.
No they didn't.
Though there lack of support for Israel in both the Obama and Biden administrations has been criminal.
Who put their command post in the refuge camp? Does Hamas respect the life of the refugees?I don't know man, I'm staunchly pro-Israel defending itself but things like this are sickening and will only serve to grow Hamas I'm afraid. I just saw an IDF official on TV all but admit they caused this massive loss of life in order to take out one high-ranking Hamas official. Refugees, my god - this has to stop or this war is going to quickly spread out of control.
Blast at densely populated refugee camp: The Ministry of Interior in Gaza reported that 20 homes "were completely destroyed" in the residential Jabalya Refugee Camp. "Hundreds" of dead and injured people arrived at Gaza's Indonesian hospital, its director, Dr. Atef al-Kahlout, told CNN, adding that many people are still under the rubble. Another doctor, Dr. Mohammad alRann, described a "scene no one can imagine" at the hospital — there are “charred bodies in the hundreds” and "patients and injured are on the floors, beds, corridors and reception area” of one of Gaza's largest hospital, he said."
An Israeli strike hit a Gaza refugee camp on Tuesday. Catch up on the latest developments in the war
Israeli forces said a strike on a refugee camp in northern Gaza killed a top Hamas commander responsible for the October 7 attack on Israel. Hamas denied the claim.
Islamic terrorists care nothing for life.
Less to do with Israel and more to do with all the money sent to the Middle Eastern countries that trickled down to terrorist groups. imo
Biden’s $90 Billion Bailout to Tehran
Rejoining the Iran deal could undo years of progress in the Middle East.
foreignpolicy.com
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U.S. carries out air strikes after U.S. drone was shot down.
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