The current elected Republicans are probably 70% establishment but only 25% of the republican base supports establishment policy. The majority populist base should eventually translate into a populist elected group of Republicans. The establishment though will continue to run candidates that will tell the voters what they want to hear and then proceed to obey and vote with the establishment leadership after being elected.I would LOVE this ... 30% of the Republican party would splinter off and that would be that... You'd be right about where the independents currently are in the big scheme of things.
MAGA will either take over or break off before it's over but it will take years.