Great news! Lot of positives to celebrate today as we wrap up a tough week.
DOW 27K+ | S&P 3200
- Thread starter scotchtiger
- Start date
Lol I absolutely appreciate your consistency in there being basically one singular issue you care about and your complete transparency about it.
Also, I too am celebrating today’s gains. Threw some cash (including that tax refund “stimulus check”) into Wealthfront when we were at about 22k. Think today’s job numbers really lessen the possibilities of another big dip.
This is absolute madness. Very, very dangerous market. This is the most expensive stocks have been since right before the dotcom bubble burst in 2000.
Eventually the chickens will come home to roost. If you're snatching up equities, probably not a bad idea to have defensive positions in gold, silver, and bitcoin.
Eventually the chickens will come home to roost. If you're snatching up equities, probably not a bad idea to have defensive positions in gold, silver, and bitcoin.
Well I wasn’t ready to buy at 19k because I didn’t know if we had hit bottom or not. Once it came back up a bit I pushed more in. I’m not one of these genius stock guys that tries to time the market. I also don’t have nearly as much invested as probably most folks on here because I’m still working on debt. As the cash frees up, so do my investments.
I just retired. I should go to 100% cash right now until after the election. Or forever.
Yea, I'm shocked at the dramatic nature of the rally. There are still a lot of people out of work and permanent damage has been done to businesses and industries.
I'm not timing anything and just continuing business as usual. Never stopped investing and my only timing attempt was dumping money in Amazon when it dropped below 1900.
I don't time the market either, just write the check every two weeks. I'm convinced Trump will sign something with China late in the summer (self serving move before the election) to send it on another run... then I might think about some serious reallocation. Nobody knows, but I'd guess we have another really good run for a few months, but at some point the government can't just keep printing money and somebody's to pay the tab.
I don't know that it's a single issue, but I'm certainly focused on a certain category. The market, the economy, businesses opening, jobs, etc. All major, critical issues. And they are good for everyone. There should be unanimous support around this. Just like there should be unanimous support around kindness toward everyone and equality.
I just started investing in mid April - 529 plans for both children and HSA. I came in at a good time, but am waiting for the honeymoon phase to end, but I am in it for the long haul!
When airplanes are consistently full and international borders are open, then and only then will I relax
I read this today... is this baked into the market numbers already or are we due for some correction? This is not intended to be some kind of political critique either, I've got a lot of money in the market and am honestly thinking about trying to time it. It seems crazy high right now for where the economy is.
The second major caveat is that job growth was wholly attributable to temporarily sidelined workers returning to their old jobs. The number of Americans on “temporary layoff” fell by 2.7 million in May to 15.3 million. But the number of Americans who were outright fired last month — as opposed to being furloughed — is actually 295,000 higher than in April, with 2.3 million workers suffering permanent job losses.
Mr. DT
The second major caveat is that job growth was wholly attributable to temporarily sidelined workers returning to their old jobs. The number of Americans on “temporary layoff” fell by 2.7 million in May to 15.3 million. But the number of Americans who were outright fired last month — as opposed to being furloughed — is actually 295,000 higher than in April, with 2.3 million workers suffering permanent job losses.
Mr. DT
I wonder that as well. The first wave was a lot of F&B, tourism, etc. Those are transient positions anyways and can bounce back as things reopen.
My company had an outright contraction/force reduction with no intention of rehiring in the near term. Those are professional positions eliminated for longer than a few months.
I'm skeptical, but will enjoy the positive news in the meantime.
It's about time all the guys who told us they sold everything on January 1st to let us know they went all in on March 1st. I do wish I could market time like that.
Of course, my timing has not been bad. I got in back in the 70s.
Of course, my timing has not been bad. I got in back in the 70s.
this market is crazy...I personally am not a believier in this rally. Way to many bad things in the world to support this. The world economy has basically been shut down for months and depression like unemployment and the market bounces 40% in 2 months....doesn't add up. I must say the FED did a great job with everything they have done. I feel at some point we will re-test the lows from March.
I watch it daily and I have no idea what the rest of the year will bring. My gut agrees with you for the most part. I don’t think we relapse back to March 23 lows - but I’d be very surprised if we don’t pull back again before a more permanent recovery begins. I did a lot of buying the last 2 months but I’m starting to shore things up a bit right now for myself and clients. Too much, too fast IMO.
What a great post! Well
Done! Thanks for the encouragement!
The FED has handled this immaculately IMO.
I agree with everything you said, but I’m starting to become less concerned. They just threw 4 trillion dollars into the system; that’s gonna create a shitton of value, and as long as productivity outpaces inflation and as long as the US maintains its position as the most desirable global market to invest, then we’ll be fine.
This is before you consider the fact that if there truly is a global rethinking of supply chains and a renewed emphasis on their integrity and resiliency, then the US could be one of the biggest beneficiaries to significant reshoring.
You can’t time the market. Just keep contributing consistently and when you get older. You’ll be glad you did. That way, when the markets down, you’re getting stocks on sale and able to buy more shares for the same amount of money. Then when it goes up, you’ll have an army of money working for you
Our Stock portfolio (not 401ks) doubled in the past two months. went aggressive and it looks like it paid off. I think my picks still have room to run, but we will see
I am an eternal optimist in many ways, but to add to the above- in a similar fashion my company first had to lay off 3 to 4 hundred in our Auto business (We probably have 25 businesses) as you can imagine. The next step was to cut a lot of folks who were contracting. The next move was to let go 5% of salaried employees. The most recent move was to cut the salary of every remaining salaried employee from 10-40% for the remainder of the year AND stop 401k matches. That cut was “replaced” with equity, so it has a potential upside.
The point being that many large (We are in the Fortune 300) businesses are making a lot of moves that are not getting attention now because of noise.
As we heard from one of our own awhile back on TI, October looks like it may when the carnage in the Airline Industry hits.
It appears that the late 3rd and definitely the 4th quarter will be very ugly. Add on top it’s an election year and the extreme attempts to unseat the current administration ....
what we don’t know is how well the Fed can continue to prop things up the remainder of the year...and bridge it till the pent up growth explodes (it will).
Adam "Bug-eye" Schiff, Nancy "The Wicked Witch of the West Coast" Pelosi, Jerrold "The Munchkin" Nadler, and company, have convened for a special strategy meeting on the economy, or how they can try another plan to derail the economy. I imagine that at least one of those characters may have time to think about their plans while serving time in the 'Big House' instead of House of Representatives.
I don’t understand when people talk about the depression, like it’s anything close to that. So many of the jobs lost were in restaurants. Those come back quickly. Once restaurants re-open like they are and people go back to work the numbers for unemployment go down. This entire thing is not some sort of economical or market problem.
You must not work in manufacturing. Our orders and sales are way off from March-June vs. historical averages for the film, wire, filtration, textile, and automotive market segments. Much of that is tied to global supply chains (ie, our customers ship and receive product internationally), but a decent amount is due to domestic slowdown.
Hoping it comes back quickly, but everything is still pretty soft.
Based on your posting history, I think I know where you are going with this.
The positive numbers are welcome news in a dark time for our country. I am very happy for the americans that can go back to work and feed their families.
But we have had this debate before. I think the events of the last two months have proven me right. The "market" is not a true indicator of the strength of our economy. We had to send stimulus checks to people (like @Earle36 ) after three weeks of a shut down. Many major american companies had to be bailed out, and still laid people off. So many people and companies in this country are following our presidents business strategy in how they live their lives: leverage, leverage, leverage... and then declare bankruptcy and forfeit on your debts when you cannot pay them.
Meanwhile, we are running unprecedented government deficits due to high government spending and lower income due to tax cuts for the wealthy. Thats a bill that our kids will have to pay. The booming trump economy (a rocket ship as he described it yesterday) is mickey mouse... its fake news. How can people not see that now?
I’m with you there. I’ve tightened up where I’m invested to industries where there’s very little risk and snagged some dividend stock deals there.
“Had to be bailed out” is a bit strong for “everybody was instructed to close their doors and stay home, in many cases stopping their income stream.”
Hyperbole doesn’t help here.
they had to bailed out after three weeks. any business should have cash on hand. I am all for those small businesses getting money, because I want them to survive.
But that does not change the point I made. Prove me wrong with data of you have it.
The fed has done the single thing that the fed (any central bank) can do, print/create digits, and that's all they can ever do, until they print all of us into oblivion. They (all central banks) bring ZERO "value", as any and all central economic policies have done for the last couple thousand years. "Productivity", can NEVER be created from nothing, i.e. a printing machine/computer one's and zero's. Since the dawn of civilization, productivity is created from savings, labor and "investments" (can include several things) into production.
You miss the underlying issue of this recent (approx. 80 years or so) phenomenon of credit creation, at some future inflection point, the printing/digit creation comes to an end. You do realize, if an entity such as a central bank, "just threw 4 trillion dollars into the system", that 4 trillion dollars is OWED back..... right? Plus the "X" trillions owed already..... right? And exactly who and when is that going to be paid back?
^^^ this. Some employers also “let go” employees instead of furlough so they can file for unemployment instead of be completely without income with a promise to “hire” back as quickly as possible. I know a few small business owners around the Upstate who did this. As soon as service/entertainment industry opens back, the jobs will be filled quickly.
The funniest part is, you probably think the Obama administration was the economic answer.
haha
But they had to do those buybacks at ATH's bro. Don't you understand?
It is a disgrace...
I wasn't saying that the FED created the value or the productivity. The FED supplied the capital which then the private markets use to create value. With the rise of technology and corporate efficiencies, productivity rates have risen continually for years, thus demonstrating that the private markets are able to create outsized value.
The capital markets don't create the value or the productivity, but they are required in order for the private markets to create value using their productivity. The capital markets are the gas, and the private markets are the engine. The gas can't drive itself, but the engine won't run without the gas.
Who are you talking about when you say "they had to be bailed out"? All businesses? Specific industries? Airlines?
It is truly sad how many people cannot be happy with good news in the US in regards to the stock market/economy or anything for that matter because it doesn't fit their agenda/beliefs...
I feel like you guys. The market is artificially propped up by the unemployed getting a $600/wk bonus, most tax payers getting a $1200 bonus, the PPP loans.
What happens when the ....
1. Unemployment bonuses stop. Sure, a lot of them will hopefully go back to work, easing unemployment, but not every job will be there. A lost of mom & pop stores will close or have reduced income forcing them to reduce their workforce.
2. The PPP loans come due and some businesses find out the hard way that they did not do everything correctly. Just from reading this board it seems like some people did not do things correctly and their loans will not be forgiven. Even if they did everything correctly and get their loan forgiven, will they have the amount of business to keep the same number of employees.
3. The airlines stop being propped up (October). Even if travel opens up, I think the airline business is not going to be what it was before. Most things I have read say at least 1 of the major airlines is going to go under.
4. As others have said, the global economy has been shut down. It is going to take years to get back to where it was before Covid-19.
5. Election November 3rd.
I see a major correction coming. I don't know if it will be as bad as the 1st, but some kind of step back has to happen. I timed it pretty well in March moving most of my 401K from safe investments back to stock funds. I also moved a portion to a S&P500 index fund. I want to try and time it this time around too. I originally thought of moving a major portion of my 401K into safe funds mid June, but the market is so crazy right now. I have to read a lot more and follow every thingday by day, but maybe sometime in July is when to do it.
I need to write down on a calendar when all of these events above are going into affect or come off the books.
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"The FED supplied the capital".
No sir, capital doesn't come from printing presses or 1's and 0's in a computer, at best, that's wishful thinking. Besides, in economic (production) terms, that isn't even what capital is.
Just imagine for a moment what you stated was correct, you are implying that there would be no production if not for central banks pumping "capital"? Ask yourself, how did this country produce anything for the first couple hundred years without a central bank?
