I wish there was a vaccine that eliminated conspiracy theorists.
Great news today by the CDC..if you're under 50 Covid-19 less deadly than flu
- Thread starter RicheClemson
- Start date
This is the most infuriating part to me. We all made huge changes in our lives based off of his insight. He has flipped on several of the most important issues. I want us all safe and healthy but it is hard to continue to take everything serious if the expert is going to do 180s on topics. It would have been better to come out and say we are collecting data and honestly our solutions are fluid. At least we would all know.
Respectfully, these number are not accurate per the CDC estimate. What you have listed is for symptomatic cases only. In the same report, they estimate 35% of all cases are asymptomatic. When you factor this in, the mortality rate falls to:
0-49 years old = 0.0325%
50-64 years old = 0.13%
65+ = 0.845%
Overall 0.26%
Further, our nursing home population nationwide is 0.5% of our population, yet account for 33% of all deaths. If you remove those numbers the overall IFR falls to 0.17%.
I
Interesting numbers. Thanks for sharing.
If accurate, this would be the lowest death rate I have seen, as most estimates have been about .65% rather than .4% for symptomatic. I guess that is logical as you would expect the US to have some of the best numbers for known cases in light of our superb facilities and personnel for dealing with really bad, known illness. I have read elsewhere that on average it is believed that each fatality is losing on average 10 years of life expectancy, but I have no idea how accurate those numbers are.
If these numbers are accurate, then without a vaccine or better treatment it would seem that we should ultimately expect somewhere around 345K - 690k deaths in the USA from this (330 million x 40-80% strike rate x 65% symptomatic rate x .004% death rate) over the next couple of years if we assume all asymptomatic people and all symptomatic persons develop permanent immunity when getting it (which I suspect is too optimistic, unfortunately). From this study, without a vaccine it would seem we should expect somewhere in the range of 2.9 - 5.8 million US residents to be hospitalized from CV19 over the next couple of years (330 million x .4 -.8 strike rate x .65% symptomatic rate x .034% hospitalization rate). From this study, it appears we should expect these patients to spend several days each in the hospital.
Have any numbers been released yet of permanent injury separate from deaths to give a better picture of ultimate effects from CV19?
For me personally, I plan to work as hard as I can through September to prepare for a potential second wave this coming winter. My gut feeling is that much of our decline in cases presently is due to the shutdown and the arrival of summer. I hope I am wrong, but I plan to make hay while the sun is shining and get it in the barn.
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The CDC article that started this thread states multiple times that these numbers are NOT predictions of future fatalities.
They are generalized planning scenarios for pandemic modeling that appear to be based solely on data collected during the month of March using data received by April 29th.
I’d love some good news about the number of people who will die as a result of the virus but the CDC pretty clearly doesn’t feel confident enough in the available data to predict an actual mortality rate.
They are generalized planning scenarios for pandemic modeling that appear to be based solely on data collected during the month of March using data received by April 29th.
I’d love some good news about the number of people who will die as a result of the virus but the CDC pretty clearly doesn’t feel confident enough in the available data to predict an actual mortality rate.
Their abilities to predict leave quite a bit to be desired.
Seeing that there is no track record with this virus I still think he's doing his best to keep us informed.
His best needs to be a lot better
Agreed. Years from now the history books will not be kind to Trump's decision to shut down our economy for 30 days. And then he publicly chastised brave governors like Brian Kemp for reopening. Shameful.
Oh I agree. My beef is he continues to come out with absolutes only to do a 180 weeks later. Of course that's my opinion only
We finally agree on something. I’m a big Trump guy obviously, but the shutdown was a huge mistake.
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Pay no credence to him. He called for the shutdown all along. Now he’s blaming it on the man who haunts his daily life. It’s completely entertaining he thinks no one notices.
Right. He should have asked, “What would Obama do and everything would have been fine.”
Washington state has admitted to classing gunshot victims as COVID. Others similar, just the tip of the iceberg. Pure stampede manipulation by the “party of ‘science’”.
looks like 1/4 to maybe 1/3 or even 1/2 of us have been exposed, in country after study after country. Looks like 35% or so are asymptomatic. Looks like the “party of science” FORCING the insertion of infected people into nursing homes in the autocratic blue states directly caused 3/4 of the deaths that we mourn.
the “experts” are scientistic, not scientific. They use stampede tactics to herd us along their narrative. Should be repulsive to all of us, but especially those of us who suffered loss of loved ones due to their insistent “expertise” and loss of health and livelihood because of their power grabs. Stampedes trample human souls, economies of the regular folks, and the Bill of Rights.
The american people lost. 70K+ dead in two months. 20% unemployment. And all the while our elected leader says "i don't take responsibility at all."
Japan successfully beat this thing (very few deaths) without a shutdown. They addresses it early February and wore masks. And all the while, our elected leader still refuses to wear a mask.
funny you say that b/c Obama did leave a pandemic playbook (one that was started by Bush) but Trump scrapped it.
That you, Fauci? Flip flopper
I’ll make a deal with you, and give you a 2nd chance to show you have even a drop of character. If Trump loses on 11/4, I’ll leave TI. If Trump wins on 11/4, you leave.
Nevermind... I’d rather have a daily reminder folks like you exist, so that I can pat myself on the back daily.
You’re great. And you still lost.
It s troubling that you think this is some sort of personal competition between two anonymous posters. That said, i have been right about everything. I have more character on my left nut than you pal. I’ll take your ban bet, although I doubt you will actually leave when trump loses.
Dude there are probably plenty of deaths being wrongfully attributed to COVID-19, but your example isn’t one of them. Just because someone possesses one or more comorbidities doesn’t mean coronavirus didn’t cause death.
So everyone with an underlying medical condition who has died from COVID-19 complications shouldn’t be counted as COVID-19 deaths?
I’m on your side of this argument, but this is a terrible analogy. It’s not even remotely the same.
In the end, the annual number of deaths (all causes......last year ~2.8M with ~2M from “natural causes”) will be the best (not perfect) indicator of the impact of this Pandemic and the response to the Pandemic. That number will balance out the loss of life from the virus (however it’s coded for “billing purposes”) minus the lives saved from the shut down (fewer MVA, seasonal flu, etc. deaths) plus the lives lost to the shutdown (increased suicides, homicides, untreated other health issues, malnutrition, drug and alcohol abuse, etc.). For each of us individually the impact is not a “percentage” but rather a binary consequence: 0/1; on/off; live/die; Tiger/gamecock. The nasty things about this biological infectious disease are the lack of data, lack of vaccine, unpredictable nature of the horrible deaths not from the virus itself but the over exuberant immune response/cytokine storm (that can attack any age group), and most significantly the fear that has griped us fostered by the 24/7 mass media. Just pray that the net number is not too great and the net social damage not too severe. GO TIGERS! Spot the ball!
So statements from doctors in one hospital make it so for the whole country. Gotcha. And there's zero stats.
You truly are an idiot. So, the rate is based on the total population of the US. I didn't realize all 330 million were infected.
You're statement is hogwash:
“No additional funding” tied to deaths
But there is no financial benefit to having a death certificate state that a person’s cause of death was directly tied to COVID-19, said Dr. Leon Kelly, El Paso County’s coroner, who also has served as deputy medical director for the county’s public health department during the coronavirus crisis.
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/20/coronavirus-covid-medicare-payments-hospitals/
If you really believe it is a hoax, why not take your wife to church tomorrow?
The CDC has, in my opinion, been appallingly ineffective and largely irrelevant in all of this. Whether that is due to their own incompetence or being muzzled and hamstrung by the administration, is the big question for me. Whichever is responsible should be hauled before the public and made to account.
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Deal.
Enjoy your last 5 months. To not harm Ard’s business, I won’t make you end your membership, we will just agree the loser no longer posts for 1 year. We’re going to see if your left nut can stay silent. You’ll probably go into hiding post 11/5, anyhow.
I believe you are correct in this particularly with Nursing Homes. However, there is a perverse incentive for hospitals to report a death as Covid 19 (100% Medicaid payment).
In New York City they are under reporting Nursing Home deaths because of the decision to send Covid positive people to Nursing Homes when the Hospitals were being overwhelmed. Cumo is being protected from bad press from his bad decision to send infected to Nursing Homes.
Phenomena is the "angel of death" for elderly (Covid 19 or any other virus). My father is far down the road of Dimensia and has an NDA. If he gets sick, no plasma, no drugs, no intubation - just make him comfortable. My mom already left the world that way.
My take is that the cure is at or close to the tipping point of being worse than the disease. Drug addiction, mental health, cancer screening, heart attacks, and other problems not identified by going to a doctor are going to kill more than Covid 19.
Criticism of the CDC stats. Interesting. Looks like now even the CDC is political or at least accused of being political.
Quote from the article:
"The more I think about it, the more this bothers me.
These numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse."
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1263605696844623873.html
What a sh*tshow.
done. Trump loses you leave, Trump wins I leave. Even when your boy loses the election and refuses to leave office, you still lose the bet.
CDC numbers are close to what local governments studies reported from Santa Clara, LA, Miami, NYC, and others. Santa Clara study found an IFR from 0.1 -0.3
https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason...d-2-8-percent-of-hoosiers-says-new-study/?amp
I’ve seen it first hand. I am a surgeon at a major level 1 trauma hospital.
If this is true, then why did only 1 in 10 people from Boston, one of the hardest hit cities, test positive for antibodies? https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.wb...020/05/15/boston-coronavirus-antibody-testing
Because the brainiacs on here hang their hats on small test samples that were not done randomly.
Are you living under a rock? Doctors everywhere are saying the deaths are being undercounted. I could probably post 25 links of different doctors, but here's just a few. At least look at the first one to educate yourself on this some.
https://www.poynter.org/fact-checki...rcount-doctors-in-the-field-say-the-opposite/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-deaths/
https://www.al.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-deaths-may-be-undercounted-in-alabama-doctors-say.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html
