OT: What happens if it goes to a brokered convention?

[MBTiger23]

Any political experts want to shine some light on what that wound look like? Who truly gets to decide then and if Trump ends up close to the delegates needed but not enough, wouldn't he run as a third party candidate if he was not given the nomination at the convention?

 

[BOWMAN21]

#NEVERTRUMP

Marco needs to get out and be Cruz's VP. Only way to beat Hilliary.

 

[ladedade]

 

[Earle36]

The Repubs would be ruined if they tried to screw Trump out of the nomination. They will all lose their cushy positions if that were to happen,

 

[Tiger1425]

From what I have read that is exactly what every candidate not named Trump is trying to do. Keep Trump from having enough delegates to win the nomination outright when they get to the convention. That is one reason none of them want to get out of the race. And the way it is going that may very well happen. Going to be very interesting.

 

[cred0021]

#NEVERTRUMP

Marco needs to get out and be Cruz's VP. Only way to beat Hilliary.

Doubt anyone would pick Rubio as VP if he can't even win his home state, which it appears he will lose in a couple of weeks.

 

[diehardtiger1989]

The Republicans will come to their senses.
Trump gets the nomination and easily beats Hillary.
The minority vote peaked in 2008 and won't come out for Hillary.
Trump, on the other hand, will bring new voters to the Republican party.....Independents, some Democrats and many people who have not voted in years.

Mark it down.

Can't wait for the Trump/Clinton debates.

 

[SDTiger9]

I'm fascinated by the consistent bashing of Trump PUBLICLY because that is not what 40% of the republican voters are saying privately.

In addition, exit polls are saying 50-55% are saying they'd be happy with the Donald nomination.

So, where are these people? Or are you here and too afraid to speak freely on it?

 

[Ron Munson]

Doubt anyone would pick Rubio as VP if he can't even win his home state, which it appears he will lose in a couple of weeks.

This Rubio will not be a VP. The only candidate running that would even be considered for any VP nod would be Kasich.

 

[Tiger Guru]

The Republicans will come to their senses.
Trump gets the nomination and easily beats Hillary.
The minority vote peaked in 2008 and won't come out for Hillary.
Trump, on the other hand, will bring new voters to the Republican party.....Independents, some Democrats and many people who have not voted in years.

Mark it down.

Can't wait for the Trump/Clinton debates.

This. I said a long time ago that Trump brings out tons of people who haven't voted for years. Many, and I mean many people who are tired of Politics and think the whole thing is rigged and wont even talk politics b/c they don't care about it, have all of a sudden gotten Involved. Right or wrong, agree or disagree, that's who they like and that's who's motivating them to get involved in the election. I know this personally b/c where I work, and in my family this holds true. I seriously am the only one who even follows it. Most if not everyone I know, doesn't care about politics b/c they think the whole thing is a joke and it doesn't even matter what the people want. The fact that the GOP is trying to pull the rug out from under him nearly proves them right. Even if the American people want the guy, the GOP doesn't. That would create an even bigger problem, than if Trump won outright. If they did that, im sure a lot of Americans, even LIBs, would think it's pretty crazy that the people can vote, but the establishment can say "well, that's not who we want, nevermind what you want". That will not be good for this Country and could spark something very ugly.

 

[CUAngler]

Trump might bring some new voters, but he is also going to lose part of the GOP base. And how is he going to make up for the minority vote that he is not going to get? Hilary will 63-17 her way to the white house.

 

[cred0021]

I'm fascinated by the consistent bashing of Trump PUBLICLY because that is not what 40% of the republican voters are saying privately.

In addition, exit polls are saying 50-55% are saying they'd be happy with the Donald nomination.

So, where are these people? Or are you here and too afraid to speak freely on it?

It's the same way a lot of people voted for Obama in 2008, but wouldn't claim to it now. Obama and Trump are similar in that they both generated some excitement for voters, many of whom would not have voted at all or maybe even would have voted for a different party.

 

[rjohn19]

This. I said a long time ago that Trump brings out tons of people who haven't voted for years. Many, and I mean many people who are tired of Politics and think the whole thing is rigged and wont even talk politics b/c they don't care about it, have all of a sudden gotten Involved. Right or wrong, agree or disagree, that's who they like and that's who's motivating them to get involved in the election. I know this personally b/c where I work, and in my family this holds true. I seriously am the only one who even follows it. Most if not everyone I know, doesn't care about politics b/c they think the whole thing is a joke and it doesn't even matter what the people want. The fact that the GOP is trying to pull the rug out from under him nearly proves them right. Even if the American people want the guy, the GOP doesn't. That would create an even bigger problem, than if Trump won outright. If they did that, im sure a lot of Americans, even LIBs, would think it's pretty crazy that the people can vote, but the establishment can say "well, that's not who we want, nevermind what you want". That will not be good for this Country and could spark something very ugly.

Yes, Trump will create a high turnout, just not the one you imagine. People responding to the scapegoating fear he peddles will turn out in great numbers, just not as great as the numbers of people who turn out because fear this obscene loose cannon.

Just being pissed off is not a reason to pick someone who has no position on anything he has not personally contradicted. He's playing this like he's on "Survivor" where the truth is only spoken if it's helpful. Reminds me of Boston Rob.

 

[Tiger Guru]

It's the same way a lot of people voted for Obama in 2008, but wouldn't claim to it now. Obama and Trump are similar in that they both generated some excitement for voters, many of whom would not have voted at all or maybe even would have voted for a different party.

I don't know man. Everyone I know that voted fro Trump, sure as hell aint afraid to admit it. But im in the middle class. I think the Upper Class are more afraid to admit it. I don't know any of them, so I cant speak to that.

 

[Dmk]

Trump might bring some new voters, but he is also going to lose part of the GOP base. And how is he going to make up for the minority vote that he is not going to get? Hilary will 63-17 her way to the white house.

You are 100% correct... the ones on here saying Trump will bring new voters are delusional. .sure he'll bring some new uninformed voter's, that's what Obama was great at and how that traitor won. But Trump will also bring out a record number of Hispanic democratic voters, with his talk on immigration and building a wall. And the other quote minority voters will come out in droves not necessarily to vote for Hillary but to vote against Trump. And that's not even mentioning the majority of non Trump supporters in the Republican party who will just sit at home on election day cause they can't bring themselves to vote for this lunatic. The polls show him losing to Hillary , and he will get destroyed. ..won't even be competitive. .

 

[Trading Tiger]

Trump won't lose GOP votes. R's aren't going to vote for a D just because they don't like Trump. They'll vote for Trump because he's the lesser of two evils.

Everybody has a different opinion when it comes to politics, and yet, we're all experts too. No other subject motivates people to gladly admit, and vehemently illustrate how stupid they really are.

 

[poates6]

To answer OP's question:

A brokered convention is fairly simple to explain. As of right now every state has rules for their primary's/caucuses as to who gets what delegates based on the popular vote. If no candidate reaches the required amount of delegates to have a majority, the convention becomes brokered. What that means is all of the state rules that applied to the awarding of delegates are thrown out the window and the delegates at the convention begin to beg borrow and steal for their candidate. So a delegate representing the state of sc that was awarded for trump because of the popular vote could be moved to another candidate because that's what the convention wants.

The reason this would be a cluster fudge is easy. The American people don't trust politicians already. If the republican establishment would take delegates from trump or Cruz and give to Rubio because Rubio is their boy, the people would lose all faith in the party (if they haven't already) and democrats will undoubtedly have their way for president and congressional races for a long time.

Unfortunately our votes don't really count anymore. It's the same way with the electoral college. The moment the EC was implemented the power of the people was taken away.

@MBTiger23 i hope this helps. I do believe trump would run as a third party and that is why I don't believe that republicans will ultimately take the nomination from him assuming he still has a clear lead in delegates.

 

[Tiger Guru]

Trump won't lose GOP votes. R's aren't going to vote for a D just because they don't like Trump. They'll vote for Trump because he's the lesser of two evils.

Everybody has a different opinion when it comes to politics, and yet, we're all experts too. No other subject motivates people to gladly admit, and vehemently illustrate how stupid they really are.

Very well said. This is the only topic that literally has millions of experts. this is also the one topic that everyone should end with IMO.

IMO.

 

[Buzzards Roost]

Used to routinely happen prior to 1960. After a set number of ballots all delegates are released. If it goes on into the night after that the nominee could be someone not even currently running like Romney or Bush. There have been conventions requiring dozens of ballots.

 

[cuandcofcfan]

Trump won't lose GOP votes. R's aren't going to vote for a D just because they don't like Trump. They'll vote for Trump because he's the lesser of two evils.

Everybody has a different opinion when it comes to politics, and yet, we're all experts too. No other subject motivates people to gladly admit, and vehemently illustrate how stupid they really are.

I disagree TT and I hope I am wrong. About 30-40% of Republicans are sick of big government over spending, over reaching, over waring, while trying to crush a Tea Party concerted effort to return to our constitution and a smaller federal government. Trump has been liberal on many issues and is a salesman that will say anything to get what he wants. Those 30% of Republicans did NOT show up in numbers for McCain or Romney because they were not strong conservatives nor is Trump. Hence why the polls say Trump is the only Republican that would NOT beat Hillary. All the other candidates are polling that they would beat Hillary head to head. I understand people are fed up with both parties as am I but we need a strong constitutional conservative that will return our executive branch and our SCOTUS to their constitutionally given powers. If anyone thinks Trump is going to limit his own powers they are crazy and are doomed to have any leftisit in office after him with the same over reaching powers.

 

[cuandcofcfan]

Revolution is in the air!

 

[SDTiger9]

It's the same way a lot of people voted for Obama in 2008, but wouldn't claim to it now. Obama and Trump are similar in that they both generated some excitement for voters, many of whom would not have voted at all or maybe even would have voted for a different party.

So Trump is getting almost a full 100% additional Republican turnout based upon this statement.

I highly doubt it. Where are the Trumpets on this board. They're here........ But like porn, won't admit it.

 

[poates6]

What has me real excited is the progress in the convention of states. That is the only real way we the people will be heard again.

 

[CUbeatFSU]

Trump won't lose GOP votes. R's aren't going to vote for a D just because they don't like Trump. They'll vote for Trump because he's the lesser of two evils.

Everybody has a different opinion when it comes to politics, and yet, we're all experts too. No other subject motivates people to gladly admit, and vehemently illustrate how stupid they really are.

This Republican will not be voting for Trump. I may not vote Democrat, but I will not vote for that man. Rubio has him pegged accurately - Trump is a con-artist that will do irreparable damage to the party and this country.

 

[Tiger Guru]

I disagree TT and I hope I am wrong. About 30-40% of Republicans are sick of big government over spending, over reaching, over waring, while trying to crush a Tea Party concerted effort to return to our constitution and a smaller federal government. Trump has been liberal on many issues and is a salesman that will say anything to get what he wants. Those 30% of Republicans did NOT show up in numbers for McCain or Romney because they were not strong conservatives nor is Trump. Hence why the polls say Trump is the only Republican that would NOT beat Hillary. All the other candidates are polling that they would beat Hillary head to head. I understand people are fed up with both parties as am I but we need a strong constitutional conservative that will return our executive branch and our SCOTUS to their constitutionally given powers. If anyone thinks Trump is going to limit his own powers they are crazy and are doomed to have any leftisit in office after him with the same over reaching powers.

Im always curious where they get these numbers? Nobody ever asked me, nor anyone I know for that matter, who we would vote in a head to head.

 

[Dmk]

Trump won't lose GOP votes. R's aren't going to vote for a D just because they don't like Trump. They'll vote for Trump because he's the lesser of two evils.

Everybody has a different opinion when it comes to politics, and yet, we're all experts too. No other subject motivates people to gladly admit, and vehemently illustrate how stupid they really are.

I've voted Republican my whole life in every prez election....if trump is the nominee I will sit this one out , I will not vote for Hillary but can't bring myself to vote for an idiot like that guy. And I can tell u, my whole family feels the same way, and I'm sure there are thousands or millions just like me. So u are dead wrong with what u said. Trump will so divide the Republican Party it may never recover

 

[CrouchingTiger72]

Any political experts want to shine some light on what that wound look like? Who truly gets to decide then and if Trump ends up close to the delegates needed but not enough, wouldn't he run as a third party candidate if he was not given the nomination at the convention?

I don't think so. A couple of thoughts as to why it may not come to that and why a brokered convention might be the end for Trump.

1. The conventional wisdom has been wrong all along and I hear people saying if anyone but Trump was leading like this he would be inevitable, however his failure may be as unconventional as his success. I can see where there is some decrease in Trumpism since the debate of a week ago and the David Duke mistep on Sunday. There was a lot of early voting in the southern states that probably favored Trump, but the exit polls show a lot of late deciders fell towards Rubio and Cruz. Advantage Cruz and Rubio.

2. Open primary -versus closed and caucuses. Trump has benefited in states where Dem's and independents could crossover. However he didn't do so well in states where it was closed or it required a very good GOTV operation. We are entering a stage of the calendar where that will matter alot. Later this week, I wouldn't be surprised to see Trump take multilple losses in Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana and Maine.

3. The national polling is off. Cruz and Rubio are seeing vote totals of a higher percent than that of polls and Trump is seeing about the same or less realized in vote totals. It is reasonable to expect that he has hit his ceiling and some consolidation toward Rubio or Cruz will occur after the results of last night become known to the voting public.

4. Trump is going to have to spend money this month. I don't think he will get enough earned media this week and next to blunt the amount of negative advertising that will hit the airwaves in key March 15th contests of Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. He has been reluctant to do so to this point having spent very little in comparison to his competitiors. The negative stuff did work if its done right.

If it goes to the convention with noone at 1237 delegates, the party won't hesitate to back the more powerful of the Cruz/Rubio/Kasich trio because they will know at that time if Trump is willing to spend 1 billion dollars of his own money to win the General Election as an independent. The reality is Trump has only loaned his campaign money to this point because he is banking on the National party bankrolling the rest of his run. My money is that they won't do it and he won't run without it.

 

[Tiger Guru]

Again, this is IMO.

I disagree TT and I hope I am wrong. About 30-40% of Republicans are sick of big government over spending, over reaching, over waring, while trying to crush a Tea Party concerted effort to return to our constitution and a smaller federal government. Trump has been liberal on many issues and is a salesman that will say anything to get what he wants. Those 30% of Republicans did NOT show up in numbers for McCain or Romney because they were not strong conservatives nor is Trump. Hence why the polls say Trump is the only Republican that would NOT beat Hillary. All the other candidates are polling that they would beat Hillary head to head. I understand people are fed up with both parties as am I but we need a strong constitutional conservative that will return our executive branch and our SCOTUS to their constitutionally given powers. If anyone thinks Trump is going to limit his own powers they are crazy and are doomed to have any leftisit in office after him with the same over reaching powers.

The Donors are getting so pissed. THE GOP IS SPENDING LIKE 15 MILLION ON COMMERICALS BASHING TRUMP UNTIL MARCH 15TH. Why would you spend money bashing your highest EVER voted for Republican candidate? HE IS SUPPOSE TO BE YOUR CANDIDATE? Because the donors are threatening to pull everything (MONEY ETC) out of the Republican party and put it all on Hillary since the Republicans cant seem to beat him, they will just beat him with Hillary instead. The donor class just needs someone will stand for Amnesty, flooding illegals in so wages can be depressed and diluting electorate so a Republican can never win again. That’s why the GOP isn’t getting behind Cruz either, it’s the same problem with him. All they cared about is Rubio so if he can’t do it, at this point the donors are going to turn there BACK on the Republican Party and put all there money on Hilary because the GOP can’t get “their” guy in. This is literally "the peoples" last chance to ever be able to have a say in anything. Even if you don't like the guy, it seems like a hell of a lot of people do. I certainly can't stand Rubio. They are forcing that guy down our throats and he cant even win but 1 state. There's a reason they are forcing him on us.

Again, this is just My Opinion.

 

[PAWrocka]

The Republicans will come to their senses.
Trump gets the nomination and easily beats Hillary.
The minority vote peaked in 2008 and won't come out for Hillary.
Trump, on the other hand, will bring new voters to the Republican party.....Independents, some Democrats and many people who have not voted in years.

Mark it down.

Can't wait for the Trump/Clinton debates.

I agree with the bold, but Tump polls TERRIBLY with independents and undecided voters. Also, you'll have many Republicans who will refuse to vote for him because we recognize that he is ridiculous juxtaposed to The Bern supporters who WILL hold their nose and vote Hillary. Additionally, in the debates, Trump cant pull the same crap he has done leading up into the primaries. Those tactics may work in flustering and frustrating junior Senators, but not Clinton. It will be like Hillary is Wayne Gallman and Trump is that mouthy defensive back from App State.

 

[ClemsonGuy99]

Any political experts want to shine some light on what that wound look like? Who truly gets to decide then and if Trump ends up close to the delegates needed but not enough, wouldn't he run as a third party candidate if he was not given the nomination at the convention?

 

[ChucktownK]

There would be no Tea Party movement and no Trump Phenomenon if the GOP hadn't screwed up so badly over the last decade or so and been castrated by Obama. Now the people are speaking for him in record turnouts, and if the Party takes that away at the Convention, all hell is going to break loose. You could see a formal party split and him run as an independent candidate, which would assure Hillary wins it. There would be no chance at all of Hillary losing if that were the case, excepting her indictment.

 

[Tiger Guru]

I agree with the bold, but Tump polls TERRIBLY with independents and undecided voters. Also, you'll have many Republicans who will refuse to vote for him because we recognize that he is ridiculous juxtaposed to The Bern supporters who WILL hold their nose and vote Hillary. Additionally, in the debates, Trump cant pull the same crap he has done leading up into the primaries. Those tactics may work in flustering and frustrating junior Senators, but not Clinton. It will be like Hillary is Wayne Gallman and Trump is that mouthy defensive back from App State.

Maybe you're right. But I honestly think he will nail her. I don't think he will let off about her not even being able to run if you're being federally investigated. I think he will hammer that home. I don't think he will lose to her. But man, by no means am I a political expert. I just don't even see how she's eligible. I think whoever goes against her will win, except for Rubio, which is why they keep telling us "we are so scared of Rubio. We don't want to run against him" hahahaha, yeah I believe that, lol. He can't even win but 1 state, and they are "scared" of him.

Just MO

 

[letsgocu]

When Hillary wins the election over trump, those who didn't vote have no right to bitch about it.

No vote for the GOP means Hillary benefits.

 

[Dmk]

There would be no Tea Party movement and no Trump Phenomenon if the GOP hadn't screwed up so badly over the last decade or so and been castrated by Obama. Now the people are speaking for him in record turnouts, and if the Party takes that away at the Convention, all hell is going to break loose. You could see a formal party split and him run as an independent candidate, which would assure Hillary wins it. There would be no chance at all of Hillary losing if that were the case, excepting her indictment.

I agree with everything u just said on the reasons for the trump phenomenon... I agree totally, it is because of how weak in most cast the Republicans were in dealing with Castro (I mean Obama, sorry) these past 8 years. And ur correct, if trump runs as a 3rd party candidate Hillary wins in a landslide. But if Trump wins the Republican nomination Hillary still wins in a landslide, albeit just not as large a margin. Bottom line, Trump equals Hillary becoming next Prez....

 

[PainClinic]

I have never seen a Republican candidate that has scared the Democrats as much as Trump does...I have also never seen a Republican candidate that has scared the Republicans as much as Trump does.

 

[1Clemzunfan]

#NEVERTRUMP

Marco needs to get out and be Cruz's VP. Only way to beat Hilliary.

I don't know if Cruz can beat Hillary. Trump has a better shot than Cruz IMO. I would say the best shot of beating Hillary is 1) Rubio 2)Kasich 3) Trump 4) Cruz. Now, I'm not foolish enough to think that is how they finish, nor that Rubio can win the nomination at this point, but that is how they would best stack up if the true goal was to win back the White House.

What amazes me is in the exit polling last night, when asked the question of who has the best chance to beat Hillary, Rubio was the overwhelming favorite. The voters know this, but they vote Trump anyway. It supports the idea that this is more about Trump voters expressing how pissed off and miserable they are than actually defeating Hillary and the dems in November. They are willing to gamble with giving up the White House and Supreme Court if it means they get to stick their thumb in the "establishment" eye. It's akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Whether Trump wins or Cruz wins (he won't) America and especially republicans lose. Cruz is more slimy and underhanded than Trump even if he is way smarter than Trump.

 

[Tiger Guru]

When Hillary wins the election over trump, those who didn't vote have no right to bitch about it.

No vote for the GOP means Hillary benefits.

That's my point . I didn't like Mccain or Romney, but I sure as hell couldn't stand Obama, so I did my Civil Duty and voted against him. Not for them. I wasn't about to take my ball and go home, b/c I didn't get my guy in, and then complain for 8 years about how the country went to shits.

 

[PontificatingUnifex]

Anybody who can't stand voting for trump or Clinton vote 3rd party. All it takes is 5% of the vote to have a third party fully recognized next cycle. Don't skip voting altogether!!

 

[kgwillison]

I am happy to say that while I am a Republican, I will not vote for Trump; I will vote for Clinton. To do otherwise, is increasing the possibility that Donald Trump will become President of the United States.

No, I don't like Hillary Clinton but she will not take rights away from Muslims; she will not deport 11 million people; she won't attach 45 percent tariffs to things we import (wonder if Trump would exempt his ties from that tax?); she won't tell us that the dictator of North Korea deserves respect; she won't praise the Chinese for showing strength in opposing Tienenman Square protests; she won't belittle the disabled ...

There are just so many reasons to oppose Donald Trump that have nothing to do with the two-party system. I won't sacrifice my Christian values nor my democratic values as an American to avoid having Hillary Clinton become president. Four years of another Democratic administration is better than 1 day of a Trump administration.

 

[1Clemzunfan]

As for answering the OPs question, if Trump has the vast majority of delegates and is just shy of the number needed for the nomination, you have to name Trump the nominee IMO or else you have no party. I do not like Trump and do not believe 75% of what he says, and I also believe he is simply running for his own ego and benefit. But even in spite of all I believe about him, you can't disenfranchise the voters by placing someone who didn't run, or who came up significantly short, ahead of Trump. It would be anti-American. It would destroy the people's trust in the democratic process and do more harm than good.

And as I said before, if Cruz is the second place finisher, which I hope he is not, it isn't like the 2nd place finisher in delegates is any more worthy of a rally to receive the support of the party. He is as hated and as dangerous as Trump. Let the chips fall where they may.