Did you just say Biden was going to win? You can’t be serious?
Will Dow Hit 30,000 by June 1
- Thread starter PalmettoTiger1
- Start date
Did you just say Biden was going to win? You can’t be serious?
Literally any public opinion polling or political forecasting would show that. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen or course, but yeah. That’s what I said.
But there’s no sense arguing this with 90% of this board, which refuses to believe anything that doesn’t fit their right-wing worldview.
-"it's just a flu, muh line go up"
-slim margins already, now olds will be dead.
-no 'change the world' vote factor for Trump. Get Trump out is a 'change the world' factor.
If only the DNC can figure out how to deep fake Biden vlogs then it's over.
@iceheart08 what's your outlook?
If you believe that you're in for a shock. It will be razor thin margins either way.
Wishful thinking on your part, but good for you for being lib positive.
Pretty much all available empirical data about public opinion at the moment. It is certainly not a foregone conclusion that Biden wins at this point, but it is more likely than not based on the available information. I am not going to google it for you, but almost all of the approval/disapproval polls have Trump in the negative, a poll just came out today with Biden ahead by 11, and state level polling looks better and better for Biden.
However if you are one of those "you can't believe polls, gotta trust your gut" people, then there is no convincing you.
Joe Biden... hahaha
He doesn’t even know where he is. And let’s be honest, poor guy has zero desire to be in the position he’s in. He’s been made a sacrificial lamb in this election. I sincerely feel sorry for the guy. They know Trump can’t be defeated.
I would like to see overnight pullout of supply chain manufacturing in China WuHan Virus Land, bring it home, prices will be higher but at least we can count that country OUT. I mean OUT as in see ya, wouldn't wanna be ya. You take your mystery wet market bat cock eating meat elsewhere. No trade restrictions, no tariffs, no problem I'm talking NO TRADE PERIOD.
At least there is hope that could happen
At least there is hope that could happen
What about Biden makes you believe in him? Take any hatred for trump out if it.
Dems don’t care who the candidate is and would vote for anyone over trump.
Great idea Lindsay, shut down Chimerica overnight. That would go well.
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So fracking the frack WUT. This is the difference in 9.99 tshirts at Walmart vs 19.99 tshirts at Walmart. Everyone in the US needs to contribute to that $10.00 difference. So that means for you, China 'Merica Boy, that our poors get 2 WWE Oversized TShirts for the fat kids at Christmas Time instead of 10.
There, it has been said. FIGHT, grasshoppah. It is what it is. Cheap Child Commie labor is what we are talking about. Don't want to pay $500 for a pair of Mr Rogers Kmart Loafers? Get used to it once we do pull out.
Comprendé, Mr. Cocktoasten? And just so you know, Mrs. Stanwick, You have to PAY for the steak sandwiches in this Communist Born economic crisis.
I'm not debating your larger point of view. But as far as social distancing goes... as soon as the "stay at home" rules are lifted (and I mean dawn ) beaches will be packed, restaurants will be open and people at bars.
Why do I think that? Well I'd ask a question in response... why were these orders necessary? Yes. Like I was saying...
Old people will still be wearing masks but anyone under 30 is fvcking invincible! I know this. I was one of them, once.
If manufacturing comes home, we either choose for less profitability (lower stock prices as a lot of the profit margin is based on cheap labor) or significantly higher inflation whereby a 30000 market is equivalent to a 25000 market. Either way, real long term dollar market gains are gong down- barring significant improvements in productivity (which would l8kely be bad for overall employment numbers) the best we can hope for is to just beat inflation.
The second the doctors tell us this thing is over and we can go back to sports and bars, the DOW might hit 35,000
Any Doctor?
All Doctors in lockstep?
A specific Doctor?
No doctor is going to make that decision. Lol.
We will go back to sports and bars ,when a leader, advised by doctors of differing opinions, has to grab his balls and make a decision. Actually several leaders.. given that many of these restrictions are at the State level.
Blue states will keep it shut down and kill their economies and red states will open them up.
Edit: looks like Texas is about to open back up
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Actually its not a consensus. The guy iwith the responsibility makes the decision. The rest just advise; most ive them glad that they dont have to be the one to do so.
The basics. Lol.
Edit: but whoever is the appointed voice to speak on medical issues will have probz ly the biggest voice. However medical considerations are not the only ones. We need to get the economy moving again
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I don't even know what you point is. We shouldn't listen to a consensus of experts? Are you debating what the word consensus means? A consensus of experts is not worth listening to?
Can you make your point without word-vomit?
Wow. My last post had too many words, broken up into three huge 1-2 sentence paragraphs?
Ok. I can dumb things down for you. I'll use small words too.
Expert advisers do not make decisions. They advise. I know that this may be a complicated concept, but bear with me. A consensus of experts make a recommendation based upon their area of expertise. There may be more than one factor... requiring a DIFFERENT consensus of experts. Those experts also make a recommendation.
So, DOCTORS do not decide, because there are more factors than just the pure medical. Someone else other than a Doctor" gets to make the call. Because, last I checked, a Doctor wasn't elected State Governor or POTUS.
Dammit. I used a lot of words there. I'm sorry.
So it is a consensus then?
The DOW (the topic) it going to care more about the medical experts than what the POTUS thinks. Because they are data driven.
My last post in this thread.
Multiple experts can make a consensus recommendation one one factor that impacts a decision. However their are multiple factors that must be considered in most every decision. In this case DOCTORS making a medical based recommendation, and ECONOMISTS making a economic based recommendation.
A consensus of doctors will not make the decision, nor will a consensus of economists.
I think people going back to work and business re-opening will have a bigger impact on the markets, but, I'll be on the lookout for when that consensus of doctors emerges. Right now there isn't one.
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Being personally trained by economists that advised conservative presidents, where I understood, at best, a tenth of the material. I feel confident in saying that they would lean on DOCTORS before they even considered the opinion of ECONOMISTS, we should be appreciating the fact that most economist, by reputation, are old as hell. Sorry, what were we talking about.
I agree. I took your comment to be partisanly anti- Trump. My point was simply that At nut-cutting time, all the "experts" become white-noise and the guy in charge makes the decision. Alone. Right now that person is Donald Trump. He needs help. Not partisan opposition.
Stopped clock is right twice a day
As joke with my wife she asked my son and I to buy her some stocks that will pop
Bought the tech 7 a short while back
Dam she has had her portfolio hit the moon
Not much money invested but sell
and enjoy some cruises and Gatlinburg Trips to Dollywood with the grands
As joke with my wife she asked my son and I to buy her some stocks that will pop
Bought the tech 7 a short while back
Dam she has had her portfolio hit the moon
Not much money invested but sell
and enjoy some cruises and Gatlinburg Trips to Dollywood with the grands
Give the RAIN-DANCER credit for being at the right place of history at the right time
I don’t expect the next 4 to be as generous as the overflow of printing money is going to be really difficult to swallow
It’s possible but will be challenging
I don’t expect the next 4 to be as generous as the overflow of printing money is going to be really difficult to swallow
It’s possible but will be challenging
FWIW, the market was flat from December 2021 to December 2023. That’s a pretty shitty stretch. 2021 continued the 2020 recovery run and this year has been good so far.
I brought this back up as i was wrong about the first couple years
I think the market is reacting to an expected Trump win and lower interest rates
Just a crystal ball guess like anyone
Dart throwing or monkey picking
I'll actually give you an answer here on why I (just me) think Biden is going to win.
About 40-45% of the country is either Republican or Democrat... Leaving 10-20% being independents.
Now we HEAR every day about Republican that are Never Trumpers. And we HEAR every day about Dems who are "fed up" with Biden and looking to support Trump. IMHO, this is almost TOTAL Bullshit. IMHO 95%+ of Registered Republican and Registered Democrats are going to vote with their party on election...I suppose that a FEW may cross over, but that's miniscule, I think. That means that Biden/Trump are each going to pick up around 40-45% of the vote.
So this election is going to be CLOSE. They always are. Due to the electoral college, the less populated states have slightly bigger influence than they would if we just went by straight up population. That will help Trump a bit... offsetting the fact that Biden will probably win the popular vote. And as usual, Independents like me are going to decide it. Personally, I'll never vote for Trump. Never. That was true even before the 2016 election... I'd have voted Republican in a heartbeat if anyone but Trump was there as I really dislike Hillary. It's the same thing here. I don't hate Biden, but I don't like him either. I'd vote for Nicky Hailey over Biden and wouldn't even think about it.
Now most independents that I know don't dislike Trump as much as I do... But they don't like him either. The fact of the matter is, that if this were ANYONE but Trump, he wouldn't even be in the running for President. The guy owes half a billion dollars for fraud and was found liable for sexual assault. That would eliminate ANY candidate for either party BUT TRUMP. We'll see on this next trial, but he could be found guilty of paying off a porn star so that the truth wouldn't get out before the election. His lawyer did jail time for his part in that already...
I know this doesn't matter at all to his supporters. Trump was right about that... he could shoot someone down in the street and not lose a single vote. But it DOES matter to folks that switch parties based on the candidates. I think that in the end... Independents are going to hold their noses and vote Biden.
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