Here’s my 2 cents.
I have followed this whole saga since the boating accident. At first, I thought he was the shooter of both Paul and Maggie until the PM video was released. Now, not so much. After seeing the video, it seems to me that he had contracted the murder of Paul to be done and they agreed that it would happen at Moselle on the evening of the video (Probably cousin Eddie, probably why he was a willing participant in the bullet grazing).
He knew what time it was going to happen and he had persuaded Maggie to be there at the same time to go ahead and get rid of her too. I think the contracted killer appears as planned and kills Paul. Maggie sees this unfold in front of her and takes off running away and AM shoots her with the AR. Bad shot. Wounds her. Then, he commits the crime of passion of standing over her and delivers the kill shot.
Exit stage left to change clothes and set up the alibi. The bloody clothes were consumed in the shed that burned down a week after the murders.
I don’t know if any of this is right, but why else have Maggie come out there when it was way out of the way and they really didn’t get along anyway? Why make all those calls to Rogan about a dog when you’ve just discovered your wife and son have been killed? I think that would be the last thing I’d be worried about. It was the video, of course, not the dog. And, the clothes that changed from those shown in the PM video contrasted with those shown when the deputies arrive is also damning in my opinion.
It’ll be interesting to see how all this plays out for sure. Sad situation.