Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

[Willence]

There are two ways you can look at today's Gallup poll. Trump is radically underperforming because of his toxic behavior or there's a lot more support for Trump than pollsters realize.

This is the craziest election I can ever remember with so much conflicting data.

This is the correct poll link: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321650/gallup-election-2020-coverage.aspx

More in U.S. Say They Are Better Off Than in Past Elections

Six in 10 U.S. adults say they are better off than they were three years ago, more than reported this in prior presidential reelection years.

news.gallup.com

 

[amynhop]

Tee shirt idea. Kamala is a fracking liar.

 

[SGTiger]

Tee shirt idea. Kamala is a fracking liar.

You're going to make the snowflakes cry.

 

[Cabotiger]

Hillary was way the hell ahead in the polls during 2016 and was a virtual lock to win. That should tell you how trustworthy polls are.

 

[Travisd30]

That article is from February. Lots of stuff have happened this year since then...

 

[marshmk]

There are two ways you can look at today's Gallup poll. Trump is radically underperforming because of his toxic behavior or there's a lot more support for Trump than pollsters realize.

This is the craziest election I can ever remember with so much conflicting data.

More in U.S. Say They Are Better Off Than in Past Elections

Six in 10 U.S. adults say they are better off than they were three years ago, more than reported this in prior presidential reelection years.

news.gallup.com

Well the first thing that pops out is that article is from Feb 2020 and the actual poll was taken in January 2020, 9 months ago. I'd venture to say it might be a little different if taken now.

 

[BRENTPWC]

Well the first thing that pops out is that article is from Feb 2020 and the actual poll was taken in January 2020, 9 months ago. I'd venture to say it might be a little different if taken now.

January 2020? It may as well be from 2007.

 

[Willence]

I linked the wrong damn poll. My bad. Here's the current one!

Gallup Election 2020 Coverage

Discover unique insights on the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

news.gallup.com

 

[clemsontiger02]

The fact that he's poised to lose this election tells you all you need to know:

People think they are better off despite him, not because of him.

 

[GoodWord28]

Anyone want to make a name change bet?

When Biden wins, I get to pick a new handle for you.

If America signs up for 4 more years of failure and incompetence, you can pick my new handle.

 

[wmnesbitt]

Wow at those numbers, especially in our current state with COVID and civil unrest.

I don't put much faith in any polls, however, this is the first poll that asks the important question

"Are you better off now than your were 4 years ago?"

There are a few major platform issues that will always keep Conservative on the right, and Liberals on the left
- Abortion
- 2nd Amendment

Healthcare, taxes, environment, etc are topics that I feel are mostly agreed upon, but media and the parties have created an apparent large gap, that I really don't think exists. Both sides want clean air and clean water, both sides want to balance the budget, both sides want good healthcare options, etc.

But how is your paycheck today? How is your family taken care of?

 

[GoodWord28]

This is the best polling site I’ve found. He’s a republican, but he’s honest. His write up before the last election was spot on. He basically called a trump victory. Track the website and pay close attention in the week leading up to nov 3. He’ll make sense of all the numbers.

Election Projection – The original projection website – The original election projection website, since 2003

Visit the one who started it all. Click for the premier conservative online election handicapper. EP has accurately projected election outcomes since 2003.

electionprojection.com

 

[PawsFan_]

The fact that folks think they you are better off now during a pandemic that his shut down a portion of the economy than they were during the Obama administration, is a testement on how bad Barack and Joe were at managing the economy. That was a terrible 8 years.

 

[GoodWord28]

The fact that folks think they you are better off now during a pandemic that his shut down a portion of the economy than they were during the Obama administration, is a testement on how bad Barack and Joe were at managing the economy. That was a terrible 8 years.

Take the bet.

 

[dbjork6317]

Hillary was way the hell ahead in the polls during 2016 and was a virtual lock to win. That should tell you how trustworthy polls are.

While this is true, there are a couple of different factors. Firstly, Biden’s lead is larger than Hillary’s was at this time in 2016 in key states and in some cases is outside the margin of error.

Secondly, there aren’t near as many “undecideds” or third party voters as there were at this point in 2016. There’s also been very little movement in polls so it seems most voters are set on who they’re voting for and there doesn’t seem to be much that will sway people to the other side.

I do agree that conservatives are generally under represented in polls and that Biden’s lead is not as big in many states as the Dems think. I find it particularly hilarious that Dems think they have any chance at swinging GA or TX.

But it does look like the Dems will flip Arizona, and if they can flip PA-WI-MI(which are traditionally blue states) then they don’t need FL or OH or NC.

Objectively, the Democrats have more “paths to victory” than Republicans do and therefore Biden has to be considered the odds on favorite.

 

[Jonada]

Trump literally only had to do two very simple things in order to lock up the election

1) Do a better job of managing the COVID crisis (You're entitled to your own personal opinion on this, but the majority of Americans disapprove of his handling)
2) Resist the urge to behave like an absolute garbage human being at every given opportunity.

If he had managed to do those two things, he would be beating Biden in a landslide.

 

[AustinTiger77]

There are two ways you can look at today's Gallup poll. Trump is radically underperforming because of his toxic behavior or there's a lot more support for Trump than pollsters realize.

This is the craziest election I can ever remember with so much conflicting data.

This is the correct poll link: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321650/gallup-election-2020-coverage.aspx

More in U.S. Say They Are Better Off Than in Past Elections

Six in 10 U.S. adults say they are better off than they were three years ago, more than reported this in prior presidential reelection years.

news.gallup.com

The methodology for this poll is outdated and creates a sampling bias that favors GOP supporters.

 

[BRENTPWC]

Take the bet.

I hear the handle @yabbadabbadoodog is back up for grabs.

 

[emajor2]

That article is from February. Lots of stuff have happened this year since then...

And the normal sheep will post replies without looking at when it was written.

 

[Cabotiger]

While this is true, there are a couple of different factors. Firstly, Biden’s lead is larger than Hillary’s was at this time in 2016 in key states and in some cases is outside the margin of error.

Secondly, there aren’t near as many “undecideds” or third party voters as there were at this point in 2016. There’s also been very little movement in polls so it seems most voters are set on who they’re voting for and there doesn’t seem to be much that will sway people to the other side.

I do agree that conservatives are generally under represented in polls and that Biden’s lead is not as big in many states as the Dems think. I find it particularly hilarious that Dems think they have any chance at swinging GA or TX.

But it does look like the Dems will flip Arizona, and if they can flip PA-WI-MI(which are traditionally blue states) then they don’t need FL or OH or NC.

Objectively, the Democrats have more “paths to victory” than Republicans do and therefore Biden has to be considered the odds on favorite.

Don’t bet on Arizona, I live there and it Trump everywhere you see from Flagstaff to Yuma. There is a reason many Californians are flocking to AZ and it’s to get away from the taxes and liberal agenda. We joke about having to build a wall around the state to keep them out.

 

[GoodWord28]

Don’t bet on Arizona, I live there and it Trump everywhere you see from Flagstaff to Yuma. There is a reason many Californians are flocking to AZ and it’s to get away from the taxes and liberal agenda. We joke about having to build a wall around the state to keep them out.

I can agree with this. 70 something percent turnout in 2016 and Arizona STILL went with Trump. Generally, a higher turnout is a great sign for Democrats.

I don’t see Arizona flipping.

 

[yoshi121374]

While this is true, there are a couple of different factors. Firstly, Biden’s lead is larger than Hillary’s was at this time in 2016 in key states and in some cases is outside the margin of error.

Secondly, there aren’t near as many “undecideds” or third party voters as there were at this point in 2016. There’s also been very little movement in polls so it seems most voters are set on who they’re voting for and there doesn’t seem to be much that will sway people to the other side.

I do agree that conservatives are generally under represented in polls and that Biden’s lead is not as big in many states as the Dems think. I find it particularly hilarious that Dems think they have any chance at swinging GA or TX.

But it does look like the Dems will flip Arizona, and if they can flip PA-WI-MI(which are traditionally blue states) then they don’t need FL or OH or NC.

Objectively, the Democrats have more “paths to victory” than Republicans do and therefore Biden has to be considered the odds on favorite.

I've been spending the last few days revisiting 2016 to see if my memory was correct. I was surprised to see a few things, One, Hillary was not up near as much as I remembered, especially closer to the election. Biden has a much larger lead,and it's been extremely stable. Also, Clinton did won the national vote within the margin of error. I think in 2016 one of the major factors was the perception amongst moderates that Donald Trump would govern differently and with more decorum than his election behavior, and they truly hated Clinton. I think The unknown is gone with Trump. His behavior has really hurt him with moderate educated white women. Also, Biden is much more likeable than Clinton. I think that there is a real thirst for some lack of daily drama in America

 

[dbjork6317]

Don’t bet on Arizona, I live there and it Trump everywhere you see from Flagstaff to Yuma. There is a reason many Californians are flocking to AZ and it’s to get away from the taxes and liberal agenda. We joke about having to build a wall around the state to keep them out.

In 2016 Trump led Hillary by 3 points in polls and won by 3 points. Right now Biden leads by 3 points. There are also only 7% “other” this year vs 9% in 2016. The Dems also have a strong lead in the senate race there which seems to be helping Biden. The majority of these polls show Biden leading by more than the margin of error, with some showing him as high as 9% ahead of Trump.

So, yes, Trump might win. But then that would mean that the entire margin of error was incorrect in one direction and Trump received the majority of a”other” or undecided voters that turned out.

Possible, but feels unlikely.

 

[GoodWord28]

In 2016 Trump led Hillary by 3 points in polls and won by 3 points. Right now Biden leads by 3 points. There are also only 7% “other” this year vs 9% in 2016. The Dems also have a strong lead in the senate race there which seems to be helping Biden. The majority of these polls show Biden leading by more than the margin of error, with some showing him as high as 9% ahead of Trump.

So, yes, Trump might win. But then that would mean that the entire margin of error was incorrect in one direction and Trump received the majority of a”other” or undecided voters that turned out.

Possible, but feels unlikely.

There’s absolutely positively no way Biden can win Arizona. That’s the west coast version of Georgia.

 

[tigfan92]

The fact that he's poised to lose this election tells you all you need to know:

People think they are better off despite him, not because of him.

This could be true. I am a Trumpster and am leaning towards Biden winning. I do think there is conflicting info out there though and, a whole bunch of lies. Nothing will surprise me. I just think Trump has the whole world against him despite doing what I think is a pretty damn good job. Looks like the majority of the American people believe that too.

 

[WyoTiger]

I've been spending the last few days revisiting 2016 to see if my memory was correct. I was surprised to see a few things, One, Hillary was not up near as much as I remembered, especially closer to the election. Biden has a much larger lead,and it's been extremely stable. Also, Clinton did won the national vote within the margin of error. I think in 2016 one of the major factors was the perception amongst moderates that Donald Trump would govern differently and with more decorum than his election behavior, and they truly hated Clinton. I think The unknown is gone with Trump. His behavior has really hurt him with moderate educated white women. Also, Biden is much more likeable than Clinton. I think that there is a real thirst for some lack of daily drama in America

This is the primary difference between 2016 and 2020. Four years ago there was no incumbent in the race, and the Democrats had a very unpopular candidate on the ticket. Trump was the wildcard and people weren't sure of how he would do, but seemed willing to give him the benefit of the doubt over Hillary. Now, we have four years of evidence with which to judge Trump. I think those outside of his base and echo chamber have grown tired of his constant antics and unwillingness to act with any modicum of decorum, swinging many of the states he won by the thinnest of margins back to Blue.

I think the latest virtual debate fiasco is case in point. With few undecided voters still out there, it behooves him to present himself to try and win them over by acting in a calm, rational manner while engaging in the issues instead of simply yelling louder than the other person. Instead, his (along with his campaign team) immediate reaction was to instead hold a rally event with his ardent supporters and sycophants. While this will likely make him feel good about himself leading into the last month, this does nothing to win over anyone who is on-the-fence between the two candidates.

 

[tigfan92]

Trump literally only had to do two very simple things in order to lock up the election

1) Do a better job of managing the COVID crisis (You're entitled to your own personal opinion on this, but the majority of Americans disapprove of his handling)
2) Resist the urge to behave like an absolute garbage human being at every given opportunity.

If he had managed to do those two things, he would be beating Biden in a landslide.

Trump guy here. I call BS on the pandemic thing. This was a novel virus and I believe he did the best anyone could do with it given that it came out of nowhere and basically screwed everyone on earth. On your 2nd point, I absolutely agree. If he had Mike Pence's temperament, it wouldn't even be close. I vote on issues though, not personality. To me it's an easy choice, but I am one vote. There are people out there who will vote based on the fly landing on Pence's head. That's why I think Biden wins.

 

[yoshi121374]

Trump guy here. I call BS on the pandemic thing. This was a novel virus and I believe he did the best anyone could do with it given that it came out of nowhere and basically screwed everyone on earth. On your 2nd point, I absolutely agree. If he had Mike Pence's temperament, it wouldn't even be close. I vote on issues though, not personality. To me it's an easy choice, but I am one vote. There are people out there who will vote based on the fly landing on Pence's head. That's why I think Biden wins.

I honestly think he didn't do a terrible job of his actual actions during the Crisis.... His behavior, communication, and misinformationhowever was appalling and is probably gonna cost him this election. He can blame the media for not liking him and being unfair, but he is absolutely his own worst enemy. His inability to shut his mouth and not be an infantile blowhard has crushed the right in this election. He can scream about "fake media" all he wants, but his dumbass has recorded conversations with a reporter. His own words are what hurts him

 

[dbjork6317]

There’s absolutely positively no way Biden can win Arizona. That’s the west coast version of Georgia.

I don’t agree. The polls in Georgia are split with about half showing Biden and half showing for Trump. The biggest lead for Biden on any of those polls is 3%.

It’s important to note that Arizona also elected a democrat to the senate in 2018, whereas the last time a democrat won a statewide election in Georgia was 2002 and that was Zell Miller.

 

[WyoTiger]

I don’t agree. The polls in Georgia are split with about half showing Biden and half showing for Trump. The biggest lead for Biden on any of those polls is 3%.

It’s important to note that Arizona also elected a democrat to the senate in 2018, whereas the last time a democrat won a statewide election in Georgia was 2002 and that was Zell Miller.

And McSally is almost certainly going to lose to Kelly this election, as she is currently trailing by double digits.

The quote above about Californians moving to get away from the taxes might be true, but that doesn't automatically shift them from Blue to Red. The demographics of that state, along with Nevada where I live, are changing with the influx of Californians. Both are now leaning Blue after being traditionally conservative, though Nevada has gone Blue the last 3 elections.

 

[Cabotiger]

In 2016 Trump led Hillary by 3 points in polls and won by 3 points. Right now Biden leads by 3 points. There are also only 7% “other” this year vs 9% in 2016. The Dems also have a strong lead in the senate race there which seems to be helping Biden. The majority of these polls show Biden leading by more than the margin of error, with some showing him as high as 9% ahead of Trump.

So, yes, Trump might win. But then that would mean that the entire margin of error was incorrect in one direction and Trump received the majority of a”other” or undecided voters that turned out.

Possible, but feels unlikely.

Kyrsten Sinema (D) beat out Marthy McSally (R) for the AZ Senate seat in 2018 however Sinema is by far one of the more moderate democrats and even was one of the few that voted against impeachment of Trump.
Since her election to the Senate in 2019 Sinema has voted with President Donald Trump 51.9% of times, the 2nd most for a Democratic Senator.[1] In the 115th Congress (2017 to 2019) Sinema voted with Trump 62.6% of times.[2]

 

[dpic73]

Don’t bet on Arizona, I live there and it Trump everywhere you see from Flagstaff to Yuma. There is a reason many Californians are flocking to AZ and it’s to get away from the taxes and liberal agenda. We joke about having to build a wall around the state to keep them out.

It's Maricopa County that matters:

"It’s not that Maricopa County voters have suddenly turned the state dark blue. Far from it.
County voters remain sensitive to taxes and spending, and they continue to vote for Republicans who are competent and broadly appealing. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, for example, won reelection comfortably in 2018, carrying Maricopa by over 197,000 votes.

Clearly, the problem is Trump, whose style doesn’t sell well in Maricopa County (and in many other urban and suburban areas). As long as he is in the White House or on the ballot, the GOP has a problem in the county, and therefore in the state.
Unfortunately for Trump, he doesn’t have anywhere to turn to make up the votes he is losing in Maricopa County. Together, Maricopa and the state’s second largest county, Democratic Pima (Tucson), account for three-quarters of Arizona’s vote, and the state’s other counties simply don’t deliver a large enough number of voters to change an election outcome.
Even worse for Trump and the Arizona GOP, Maricopa is growing. Quickly.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 1, 2019, report on population changes, Maricopa County had the fastest growth in the country, in terms of population change, between 2010 and 2019.
In fact, Maricopa is now the fourth most populous county in the nation, ranking behind only Los Angeles County (California), Cook County (Illinois) and Harris County (Texas).

Why is that important? Because Trump and the GOP underperformed in the nation’s most populous counties in 2016 and 2018."

Donald Trump’s Maricopa problem - Roll Call

Arizona is key to President Donald Trump’s reelection strategy, and for clues to the state of the race, look no further than its Maricopa County.

www.rollcall.com

Why is that important? Because Trump and the GOP underperformed in the nation’s most populous counties in 2016 and 2018.

 

[dbjork6317]

And McSally is almost certainly going to lose to Kelly this election, as she is currently trailing by double digits.

The quote above about Californians moving to get away from the taxes might be true, but that doesn't automatically shift them from Blue to Red. The demographics of that state, along with Nevada where I live, are changing with the influx of Californians. Both are now leaning Blue after being traditionally conservative, though Nevada has gone Blue the last 3 elections.

This is happening some in Texas as well. Not wanting to be heavily taxed in California doesn’t automatically translate to voting for Trump.

 

[dbjork6317]

Kyrsten Sinema (D) beat out Marthy McSally (R) for the AZ Senate seat in 2018 however Sinema is by far one of the more moderate democrats and even was one of the few that voted against impeachment of Trump.
Since her election to the Senate in 2019 Sinema has voted with President Donald Trump 51.9% of times, the 2nd most for a Democratic Senator.[1] In the 115th Congress (2017 to 2019) Sinema voted with Trump 62.6% of times.[2]

Good info. Although I would argue that with the way our system is set up, for all practical purposes there’s really no such thing as a moderate and very few voters will be aware of that voting record.

 

[dbjork6317]

It's Maricopa County that matters:

"It’s not that Maricopa County voters have suddenly turned the state dark blue. Far from it.
County voters remain sensitive to taxes and spending, and they continue to vote for Republicans who are competent and broadly appealing. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, for example, won reelection comfortably in 2018, carrying Maricopa by over 197,000 votes.

Clearly, the problem is Trump, whose style doesn’t sell well in Maricopa County (and in many other urban and suburban areas). As long as he is in the White House or on the ballot, the GOP has a problem in the county, and therefore in the state.
Unfortunately for Trump, he doesn’t have anywhere to turn to make up the votes he is losing in Maricopa County. Together, Maricopa and the state’s second largest county, Democratic Pima (Tucson), account for three-quarters of Arizona’s vote, and the state’s other counties simply don’t deliver a large enough number of voters to change an election outcome.
Even worse for Trump and the Arizona GOP, Maricopa is growing. Quickly.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 1, 2019, report on population changes, Maricopa County had the fastest growth in the country, in terms of population change, between 2010 and 2019.
In fact, Maricopa is now the fourth most populous county in the nation, ranking behind only Los Angeles County (California), Cook County (Illinois) and Harris County (Texas).

Why is that important? Because Trump and the GOP underperformed in the nation’s most populous counties in 2016 and 2018."
It’s not that Maricopa County voters have suddenly turned the state dark blue. Far from it.
County voters remain sensitive to taxes and spending, and they continue to vote for Republicans who are competent and broadly appealing. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, for example, won reelection comfortably in 2018, carrying Maricopa by over 197,000 votes.

Clearly, the problem is Trump, whose style doesn’t sell well in Maricopa County (and in many other urban and suburban areas). As long as he is in the White House or on the ballot, the GOP has a problem in the county, and therefore in the state.
Unfortunately for Trump, he doesn’t have anywhere to turn to make up the votes he is losing in Maricopa County. Together, Maricopa and the state’s second largest county, Democratic Pima (Tucson), account for three-quarters of Arizona’s vote, and the state’s other counties simply don’t deliver a large enough number of voters to change an election outcome.
Even worse for Trump and the Arizona GOP, Maricopa is growing. Quickly.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 1, 2019, report on population changes, Maricopa County had the fastest growth in the country, in terms of population change, between 2010 and 2019.
In fact, Maricopa is now the fourth most populous county in the nation, ranking behind only Los Angeles County (California), Cook County (Illinois) and Harris County (Texas).

Why is that important? Because Trump and the GOP underperformed in the nation’s most populous counties in 2016 and 2018.
It’s not that Maricopa County voters have suddenly turned the state dark blue. Far from it.
County voters remain sensitive to taxes and spending, and they continue to vote for Republicans who are competent and broadly appealing. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, for example, won reelection comfortably in 2018, carrying Maricopa by over 197,000 votes.

Clearly, the problem is Trump, whose style doesn’t sell well in Maricopa County (and in many other urban and suburban areas). As long as he is in the White House or on the ballot, the GOP has a problem in the county, and therefore in the state.
Unfortunately for Trump, he doesn’t have anywhere to turn to make up the votes he is losing in Maricopa County. Together, Maricopa and the state’s second largest county, Democratic Pima (Tucson), account for three-quarters of Arizona’s vote, and the state’s other counties simply don’t deliver a large enough number of voters to change an election outcome.
Even worse for Trump and the Arizona GOP, Maricopa is growing. Quickly.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 1, 2019, report on population changes, Maricopa County had the fastest growth in the country, in terms of population change, between 2010 and 2019.
In fact, Maricopa is now the fourth most populous county in the nation, ranking behind only Los Angeles County (California), Cook County (Illinois) and Harris County (Texas)."

Donald Trump’s Maricopa problem - Roll Call

Arizona is key to President Donald Trump’s reelection strategy, and for clues to the state of the race, look no further than its Maricopa County.

www.rollcall.com

Why is that important? Because Trump and the GOP underperformed in the nation’s most populous counties in 2016 and 2018.

Trump is truly a cross cutting candidate. He did poorly in areas that republicans traditionally do well and did well in counties that Obama won twice by double digits.

Regardless of your stance on him as President, he is a phenomenon and his run in 2016 and cult of personality will be studied for decades in political science classes.

 

[Woody1405]

The best internet polling site is 538. It is owned and operated by Nate Silver, who is a mathematician. He does no polling, but he takes all other polls and applies mathematical algorithms to them base on their past history of accuracy or inaccuracy. Today, he has the odds at 85% Biden 15% Trump and those numbers are moving the wrong direction for Trump. Trump is so desperate now that he won't commit to honoring the results of the election. And he says he wants his Attorney General to indict Obama, Hillary and Joe Biden. Thats pretty desperate.

 

[WyoTiger]

The best internet polling site is 538. It is owned and operated by Nate Silver, who is a mathematician. He does no polling, but he takes all other polls and applies mathematical algorithms to them base on their past history of accuracy or inaccuracy. Today, he has the odds at 85% Biden 15% Trump and those numbers are moving the wrong direction for Trump. Trump is so desperate now that he won't commit to honoring the results of the election. And he says he wants his Attorney General to indict Obama, Hillary and Joe Biden. Thats pretty desperate.

He, along with all other pre-election-day polling apparatuses, got it wrong in 2016. But Silver and 538 are typically one of the most accurate. I think the fact that Trump won in 2016 on the back of miracles has given him and supporters a false sense of confidence going into this election; that there is indeed a secret majority out there that is going to appear on election day to keep him in the White House. The statistical anomaly that anyone would practically sweep all of the swing states with margins <1.0% is astounding, and highly improbable that it will happen again.

I personally think voter apathy had a lot to do with the results in 2016. I could be wrong (and often am), but I think a lot of people that sat out the 2016 election are mobilized now after the last 4 years. Higher turnout traditionally favors the Democrats, which is why you're seeing obvious voter suppression efforts right now to try and keep the numbers down. It's going to be an interesting couple of months, certainly.

 

[dbjork6317]

He, along with all other pre-election-day polling apparatuses, got it wrong in 2016. But Silver and 538 are typically one of the most accurate. I think the fact that Trump won in 2016 on the back of miracles has given him and supporters a false sense of confidence going into this election; that there is indeed a secret majority out there that is going to appear on election day to keep him in the White House. The statistical anomaly that anyone would practically sweep all of the swing states with margins <1.0% is astounding, and highly improbable that it will happen again.

I personally think voter apathy had a lot to do with the results in 2016. I could be wrong (and often am), but I think a lot of people that sat out the 2016 election are mobilized now after the last 4 years. Higher turnout traditionally favors the Democrats, which is why you're seeing obvious voter suppression efforts right now to try and keep the numbers down. It's going to be an interesting couple of months, certainly.

100 years from now people will still be writing books about the 2016 election, it was truly remarkable. It was like all the singular things that HAD to happen for Trump to win somehow amazingly happened. 2016 is proof that voters will vote for someone much more quickly than they will vote against someone.

Apathy was a part of it, jaded Democrats cannibalizing each other was a part of it, a massive rebellion against “cancel culture” and things of that nature was a part of it.

Then there’s more nefarious aspects like Russian interference and voter suppression. And I really can’t believe more people aren’t shocked at the fact that the sitting President is bascially announcing that the election has been rigged and that he won’t accept the results as fair and true unless he wins. The President has said that he should get a third term. Its kind of alarming how normalized that kind of anti-democracy rhetoric has become.

 

[FLaw47]

He, along with all other pre-election-day polling apparatuses, got it wrong in 2016. But Silver and 538 are typically one of the most accurate. I think the fact that Trump won in 2016 on the back of miracles has given him and supporters a false sense of confidence going into this election; that there is indeed a secret majority out there that is going to appear on election day to keep him in the White House. The statistical anomaly that anyone would practically sweep all of the swing states with margins <1.0% is astounding, and highly improbable that it will happen again.

I personally think voter apathy had a lot to do with the results in 2016. I could be wrong (and often am), but I think a lot of people that sat out the 2016 election are mobilized now after the last 4 years. Higher turnout traditionally favors the Democrats, which is why you're seeing obvious voter suppression efforts right now to try and keep the numbers down. It's going to be an interesting couple of months, certainly.

Sorry, this is a pet peeve of mine. If I said "this person has a 35% chance of making a 3 pointer" and they make it, was I wrong?

 

[nytigerfan]

He, along with all other pre-election-day polling apparatuses, got it wrong in 2016. But Silver and 538 are typically one of the most accurate. I think the fact that Trump won in 2016 on the back of miracles has given him and supporters a false sense of confidence going into this election; that there is indeed a secret majority out there that is going to appear on election day to keep him in the White House. The statistical anomaly that anyone would practically sweep all of the swing states with margins <1.0% is astounding, and highly improbable that it will happen again.

I personally think voter apathy had a lot to do with the results in 2016. I could be wrong (and often am), but I think a lot of people that sat out the 2016 election are mobilized now after the last 4 years. Higher turnout traditionally favors the Democrats, which is why you're seeing obvious voter suppression efforts right now to try and keep the numbers down. It's going to be an interesting couple of months, certainly.

this is correct. A lot of bernie bros sat the last one out since they thought hilary stole it from Bernie. Now they have seen four years of Trump insanity, and the fact that Biden soundly beat Bernie but has included him in some policy decisions, they will turn out this time.