Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

[WyoTiger]

No, you

Sorry, this is a pet peeve of mine. If I said "this person has a 35% chance of making a 3 pointer" and they make it, was I wrong?

no, you wouldn’t be wrong. The person made a shot That s/he would make 35/100 times. Put into binary terms, however, the probability that they miss the shot is greater than they make it, so a statistical model would predict that they miss the shot. I was simply pointing out that winning all of the swing states with a margin of less than 1.0% is a highly improbable outcome that would relate to a statistical anomaly. The models predicted a Hillary win, and they got it wrong.

 

[FLaw47]

No, you

no, you wouldn’t be wrong. The person made a shot That s/he would make 35/100 times. Put into binary terms, however, the probability that they miss the shot is greater than they make it, so a statistical model would predict that they miss the shot. I was simply pointing out that winning all of the swing states with a margin of less than 1.0% is a highly improbable outcome that would relate to a statistical anomaly. The models predicted a Hillary win, and they got it wrong.

538, at least, said that Clinton had the best odds of winning but Trumper had about the odds of making a three pointer. While it's sort of impossible to validate a model based off of a single election, it's also incorrect to say the model was wrong because the person with lower odds won. I think the fact that Trump's win was so narrow is evidence that the model's odds were directionally correct.

 

[kgwillison]

Hillary was way the hell ahead in the polls during 2016 and was a virtual lock to win. That should tell you how trustworthy polls are.

Here is the difference and why Trump is now facing long odds. During the 2016 campaign, neither candidate had over 50% support in state polls. Trump - after the FBI reopened the Clinton investigation- won nearly every undecided vote in the key states.
Today, many state polls show Biden with more than 50% support and there are few undecided voters. The only way Trump wins is to persuade people prepared to vote for Biden to switch to Trump. In today’s America, it is a difficult task to do because we are all in our camps.
I am not saying it is impossible but I think Trump is running out of time particularly given that more and more people are not waiting until Nov 3 to vote.

 

[clemsontiger02]

Here is the difference and why Trump is now facing long odds. During the 2016 campaign, neither candidate had over 50% support in state polls. Trump - after the FBI reopened the Clinton investigation- won nearly every undecided vote in the key states.
Today, many state polls show Biden with more than 50% support and there are few undecided voters. The only way Trump wins is to persuade people prepared to vote for Biden to switch to Trump. In today’s America, it is a difficult task to do because we are all in our camps.
I am not saying it is impossible but I think Trump is running out of time particularly given that more and more people are not waiting until Nov 3 to vote.

Agreed.

My attention is fully on Florida. If Biden wins it on election night, it's virtually over. Trump's paths to victory become ridiculously small.

 

[ForzaTigre]

Agreed.

My attention is fully on Florida. If Biden wins it on election night, it's virtually over. Trump's paths to victory become ridiculously small.

I would be very surprised if he lost Florida. I just don’t think that is a state that is in play very much at all for Biden.

I think Biden would be more likely to win NC than Florida.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

I think many of you are grossly underestimating the energy for Trump. I understand what the media polls are saying... but I’m telling you.

 

[kgwillison]

I think many of you are grossly underestimating the energy for Trump. I understand what the media polls are saying... but I’m telling you.

Oh there is energy from Trump among his supporters. I am sure of that. But he won’t win with that 40% alone. He needs another 5 or 6% and they need to be in the right states. There is no possible way Trump wins the popular vote. So he needs another EC victory. It can be done but the odds are longer than in 2016.

 

[yoshi121374]

Oh there is energy from Trump among his supporters. I am sure of that. But he won’t win with that 40% alone. He needs another 5 or 6% and they need to be in the right states. There is no possible way Trump wins the popular vote. So he needs another EC victory. It can be done but the odds are longer than in 2016.

Totally agree here. Trump's fans are not gonna waver at all. They love the guy and he can do no wrong in their eyes. But, he can't win with his base alone. That's what I can't understand about his campaign strategy. He seems to be narrowing his focus and only appealing to his base. His behavior won't win moderates and independents at all.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Totally agree here. Trump's fans are not gonna waver at all. They love the guy and he can do no wrong in their eyes. But, he can't win with his base alone. That's what I can't understand about his campaign strategy. He seems to be narrowing his focus and only appealing to his base. His behavior won't win moderates and independents at all.

Many of those mods/indep may be part of his base now. 56% of folks feel they’re in a better position now, than 2016.

Dems don’t want to believe it, but they are underestimating the Trump energy... and badly.

 

[WyoTiger]

Many of those mods/indep may be part of his base now. 56% of folks feel they’re in a better position now, than 2016.

Dems don’t want to believe it, but they are underestimating the Trump energy... and badly.

I don’t know what single metric is the most predictive of an election victory, if there even is one. I’ll agree the one you list is one in his favor. There are, however, numerous metrics that I would argue are likely as important. For example, from the same Gallup link, confidence in the direction we are headed as a nation is at 25%. As a projective measure, it speaks more to where we’re going than where we’ve been, like the reflective metric on personal position in 2020 v. 2016. I’m not stating a claim that one is better than the other, just that there are arguments to be made for both sides there.

Regarding moderates and independents, I actually hold the opposite view, that Trump’s erratic behavior in office have pushed many of them towards what they believe is a safer choice in Biden. That’s also why the Democratic Party chose him as its candidate instead of a more radical voice like Warren or Bernie. They went with the safe choice here. I don’t like it, but think it was the smarter play given current volatility.

All of this is what makes the next few weeks so fascinating. Can Trump generate enough support in the key swing states to pull of the upset like he did four years ago? Do the Democrats have short-term memory loss and get complacent like they did four years ago? And most importantly, as @dbjork6317 stated earlier in the thread, how will the blatant attempts at voter suppression affect the results? Will the results be contested and go to the Supreme Court, where there will likely be a conservative supermajority by that point?

We’ll find out soon enough. Or not soon enough depending on if the results are contested...

 

[dpic73]

Many of those mods/indep may be part of his base now. 56% of folks feel they’re in a better position now, than 2016.

Dems don’t want to believe it, but they are underestimating the Trump energy... and badly.

Of course you believe that because you're in a red state, outside of the metro area and you're probably surrounded by your echo chamber. There's a world outside of your trailer park....

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Of course you believe that because you're in a red state, outside of the metro area and you're probably surrounded by your echo chamber. There's a world outside of your trailer park....

Lol. You funny.

Do you feel that momentum shifting? Do you think Biden’s town hall will have 10% of the ratings Trump’s will?

Biden is in trouble.

 

[clemsontiger02]

Lol. You funny.

Do you feel that momentum shifting? Do you think Biden’s town hall will have 10% of the ratings Trump’s will?

Biden is in trouble.

Trump is a train wreck. That's why he will get the ratings. There is no correlation to votes.

Case in point: I'll tune in to Trump tonight

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Trump is a train wreck. That's why he will get the ratings. There is no correlation to votes.

Case in point: I'll tune in to Trump tonight

Maybe you’ll use your better judgement after. Biden is in trouble... despite Twitter/FB’s efforts.

 

[dpic73]

Lol. You funny.

Do you feel that momentum shifting? Do you think Biden’s town hall will have 10% of the ratings Trump’s will?

Biden is in trouble.

Honestly, it has nothing to do with Biden. The enthusiasm is around voting Trump out. Momentum is still strong in Biden's favor though. If you want to hurt your own feelings, look at all the latest polls in this link from Real Clear Politics( a right leaning website)

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

Latest Polls

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

Honestly, it has nothing to do with Biden. The enthusiasm is around voting Trump out. Momentum is still strong in Biden's favor though. If you want to hurt your own feelings, look at all the latest polls in this link from Real Clear Politics( a right leaning website)

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest Polls

Latest Polls

www.realclearpolitics.com

I’m aware you are clinging to these for comfort... how’d that work for you last time?

Are you afraid to recognize the evidence showing Biden is another version of Hillary? He sold his position as VP... and then they blamed Trump for it.

It’s astonishing.

 

[dpic73]

Trump is a train wreck. That's why he will get the ratings. There is no correlation to votes.

Case in point: I'll tune in to Trump tonight

As will I but it's not because I like him. It's always highly entertaining to see him outside of his Fox News coddlers who only throw him softballs. It's such a train wreck to watch him get questions from real people because you can see that he's shocked that he's not beloved by everyone, LOL. He will try to answer with his usual lies but he will get called on it and it will throw him out of sorts. Can't wait!

 

[dpic73]

I’m aware you are clinging to these for comfort... how’d that work for you last time?

This time has no relation to last time. Biden isn't hated like Hillary, we've seen what a dangerous idiot he is now and there's extreme motivation to kick his ass to the curb. You'll see Clucky....you will see...

 

[clemsontiger02]

I’m aware you are clinging to these for comfort... how’d that work for you last time?

"The last time." It reminds me of how cocky a large number of Clemson fans were in New Orleans on 1/1/18. We beat Bama before, and we would do it again. Nevermind that the contest was completely different this time around. The confidence level was high that history would repeat itself.

This isn't 2016 Trump (Deshaun). This is Kelly Bryant Trump.

Had Covid-19 not happened, and he was only running on the strength of the economy (as it was in Jan/Feb), he would probably be more like 2018 "Trevor" Trump.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

This time has no relation to last time. Biden isn't hated like Hillary, we've seen what a dangerous idiot he is now and there's extreme motivation to kick his ass to the curb. You'll see Clucky....you will see...

Have you seen his rallies? Have you seen Joe’s? Paid attention to new registration %s?

You are greatly underestimating his turnout. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

 

[clemsontiger02]

Have you seen his rallies? Have you seen Joe’s? Paid attention to new registration %s?

You are greatly underestimating his turnout. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

The registration #s are very interesting. I'll give you that.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

"The last time." It reminds me of how cocky a large number of Clemson fans were in New Orleans on 1/1/18. We beat Bama before, and we would do it again. Nevermind that the contest was completely different this time around. The confidence level was high that history would repeat itself.

This isn't 2016 Trump (Deshaun). This is Kelly Bryant Trump.

Had Covid-19 not happened, and he was only running on the strength of the economy (as it was in Jan/Feb), he would probably be more like 2018 "Trevor" Trump.

Credit to you for your attempt to make your argument fit your preference.

 

[dpic73]

Have you seen his rallies? Have you seen Joe’s? Paid attention to new registration %s?

You are greatly underestimating his turnout. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

What you are seeing at his rallies are the hardcore 35% so of course they're enthusiastic. They're also largely uneducated cultists. There's more of us than there are of them. Your tears will be delicious.

 

[WyoTiger]

Have you seen his rallies? Have you seen Joe’s? Paid attention to new registration %s?

You are greatly underestimating his turnout. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

The registration #s are very interesting. I'll give you that.

Link to the NYT article on shifts in voter registration numbers over the last month or two. I will say, if these hold, this could be the silent majority discussed, though I am not sure it would be enough to surmount the current polling. I still would rather be Biden than Trump but these are indeed interesting, particularly given the states represented.

Opinion | Biden Is Not Out of the Woods (Published 2020)

Unanticipated electoral developments are affecting both presidential campaigns in surprising ways.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

What you are seeing at his rallies are the hardcore 35% so of course they're enthusiastic. They're also largely uneducated cultists. There's more of us than there are of them. Your tears will be delicious.

What about the hard working, successful Trump supporters? I live in an affluent area of north Atlanta, and 90% of my neighbors are Trump supporters. You’re easily not acknowledging this group... which doesn’t make them any less real.

 

[dpic73]

What about the hard working, successful Trump supporters? I live in an affluent area of north Atlanta, and 90% of my neighbors are Trump supporters. You’re easily not acknowledging this group... which doesn’t make them any less real.

White males in Dixie are largely a given. But his largest voting bloc is composed of uneducated white males and they are the ones that swung the battleground states and rabidly holler at his rallies ......maskless.

 

[clemsontiger02]

What about the hard working, successful Trump supporters? I live in an affluent area of north Atlanta, and 90% of my neighbors are Trump supporters. You’re easily not acknowledging this group... which doesn’t make them any less real.

I played in a charity golf tournament in Milton last Sunday, and there was - without question - a huge Trump/MAGA vibe.

But I feel as if they were always a part of his base. That group is super-enthusiastic, but not large enough to carry re-election on their own.

As stated above, the new voter registration numbers interest me. If those new voters actually get out and vote, it could be a game-changer.

We'll all know soon enough.

Or maybe not.

 

[dpic73]

What about the hard working, successful Trump supporters? I live in an affluent area of north Atlanta, and 90% of my neighbors are Trump supporters. You’re easily not acknowledging this group... which doesn’t make them any less real.

I live on the east side of Atlanta, just outside of 285 and my neighborhood is completely covered with Biden/Harris signs and not one Trump sign to be seen anywhere. And this is an upper middle class neighborhood, so the closer in you get, the bluer it gets. Hopefully the metro areas out vote the suburbs though I don't expect Georgia to turn blue....this time...

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

I played in a charity golf tournament in Milton last Sunday, and there was - without question - a huge Trump/MAGA vibe.

But I feel as if they were always a part of his base. That group is super-enthusiastic, but not large enough to carry re-election on their own.

As stated above, the new voter registration numbers interest me. If those new voters actually get out and vote, it could be a game-changer.

We'll all know soon enough.

Or maybe not.

That’s where I live... Milton.

 

[Cocks are Number 1]

I live on the east side of Atlanta, just outside of 285 and my neighborhood is completely covered with Biden/Harris signs and not one Trump sign to be seen anywhere. And this is an upper middle class neighborhood, so the closer in you get, the bluer it gets. Hopefully the metro areas out vote the suburbs though I don't expect Georgia to turn blue....this time...

All joking and arguing aside... it’s going to be very interesting to see what actually happens.

 

[appalachiatiger]

There are two ways you can look at today's Gallup poll. Trump is radically underperforming because of his toxic behavior or there's a lot more support for Trump than pollsters realize.

This is the craziest election I can ever remember with so much conflicting data.

This is the correct poll link: https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321650/gallup-election-2020-coverage.aspx

More in U.S. Say They Are Better Off Than in Past Elections

Six in 10 U.S. adults say they are better off than they were three years ago, more than reported this in prior presidential reelection years.

news.gallup.com

the answer lies within itself.............................................

Gallup interviews U.S. adults aged 18 and older living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia using a dual-frame design, which includes both landline and cellphone numbers.

Gallup samples landline and cellphone numbers using random-digit-dial methods. Gallup purchases samples for this study from Survey Sampling International (SSI).

Gallup chooses landline respondents at random within each household based on which member had the next birthday. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region.

Gallup conducts interviews in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking.

How many people are interviewed as part of the Gallup Poll Social Series?
Gallup interviews a minimum of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older for each GPSS survey. Samples for the June Minority Rights and Relations survey are significantly larger because Gallup includes oversamples of blacks and Hispanics to allow for reliable estimates among these key subgroups.
How often are the Gallup Poll Social Series interviews conducted?
Gallup conducts one GPSS survey per month, with each devoted to a different topic, as follows:

• January: Mood of the Nation
• February: World Affairs
• March: Environment
• April: Economy and Finance
• May: Values and Beliefs
• June: Minority Rights and Relations (conducted periodically)
• July: Consumption Habits
• August: Work and Education
• September: Governance
• October: Crime
• November: Health
• December: Lifestyle (conducted periodically)

Are the Gallup Poll Social Series samples weighted?
Yes, Gallup weights samples to correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cellphone users in the two sampling frames. Gallup also weights its final samples to match the U.S. population according to gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only, landline only, both, and cellphone mostly). Demographic weighting targets are based on the most recent Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the most recent National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the most recent U.S. Census.

 

[appalachiatiger]

Anyone want to make a name change bet?

When Biden wins, I get to pick a new handle for you.

If America signs up for 4 more years of failure and incompetence, you can pick my new handle.

apptiger is a trademark

superamerica28 is a handle

what else you wanna throw in.....

 

[jakefest]

I live on the east side of Atlanta, just outside of 285 and my neighborhood is completely covered with Biden/Harris signs and not one Trump sign to be seen anywhere. And this is an upper middle class neighborhood, so the closer in you get, the bluer it gets. Hopefully the metro areas out vote the suburbs though I don't expect Georgia to turn blue....this time...

Our town here in NJ is primarily the same, very affluent and mostly Biden/Harris signs. When you get further away from Manhattan or push into more blue collar towns, it starts to change to Trump.

I think there probably is small/medium percentage that are afraid to admit they will vote right so simply don't put anything up.

There was an Interesting article on the blaze that talked about how the middle of the country was 25-1 Trump to Biden signs in yards but I think that's misleading as most know the Cities control the largest voting populations and they are typically blue. (ie, IL/Chicago, PA/Philly, etc)

 

[dpic73]

Our town here in NJ is primarily the same, very affluent and mostly Biden/Harris signs. When you get further away from Manhattan or push into more blue collar towns, it starts to change to Trump.

I think there probably is small/medium percentage that are afraid to admit they will vote right so simply don't put anything up.

There was an Interesting article on the blaze that talked about how the middle of the country was 25-1 Trump to Biden signs in yards but I think that's misleading as most know the Cities control the largest voting populations and they are typically blue. (ie, IL/Chicago, PA/Philly, etc)

Sounds like you're making the case that smart people prefer Biden. Which is why you should be on our side. 😉

 

[jakefest]

Sounds like you're making the case that smart people prefer Biden. Which is why you should be on our side. 😉

Ha! Like I said in an earlier post, no one has ever accused me of being smart. My wife reminds me of that fairly often

 

[ForzaTigre]

Sounds like you're making the case that smart people prefer Biden. Which is why you should be on our side. 😉

It baffles me how anyone that makes good money votes for someone who knows they’ll tax them out of their ass.

 

[dpic73]

It baffles me how anyone that makes good money votes for someone who knows they’ll tax them out of their ass.

It baffles me that anyone who believes in our democracy and doesn't want a second Civil War, will vote for Trump. I'll gladly pay more in taxes to keep Shitler from taking us to hell. This isn't about left vs right. This is about Democracy vs Trump, Americans vs Fascism and Unity vs Division for me.

 

[ForzaTigre]

It baffles me that anyone who believes in our democracy and doesn't want a second Civil War, will vote for Trump. I'll gladly pay more in taxes to keep Shitler from taking us to hell. This isn't about left vs right. This is about Democracy vs Trump, Americans vs Fascism and Unity vs Division for me.

You are nuts if you really believe either candidate winning will signify another Civil War. There will never be another true Civil War. Americans are way too comfortable. You will have your extremists on both sides but there will not be an actual Civil War.

Whoever loses fairly should just bow out, congratulate the opponent and that be that. I have no problem with whoever wins as long as it is fair.

 

[dpic73]

You are nuts if you really believe either candidate winning will signify another Civil War. There will never be another true Civil War. Americans are way too comfortable. You will have your extremists on both sides but there will not be an actual Civil War.

Whoever loses fairly should just bow out, congratulate the opponent and that be that. I have no problem with whoever wins as long as it is fair.

Call it what you want but Trump has created such a divisive gulf between us that it's almost like we have two Americas now. He's also encouraging his militias to stand by and those nutbags would gladly try to step in if he tells them to. But he will not step aside gracefully and that's the problem. And his supporters will rally behind him, like they always do, no matter how vile and stupid he behaves.

 

[ForzaTigre]

Call it what you want but Trump has created such a divisive gulf between us that it's almost like we have two Americas now. He's also encouraging his militias to stand by and those nutbags would gladly try to step in if he tells them to. But he will not step aside gracefully and that's the problem. And his supporters will rally behind him, like they always do, no matter how vile and stupid he behaves.

I think he would in a fair election, such as a Biden blowout on election night. If Trump is up very big on election night and then later on mail in votes come in and Biden is up then I think you are right, he would not step down. It would go to the Supreme Court.