My Thoughts (Long): Election edition
- Thread starter dbjork6317
- Start date
Did Biden campaign hire a Kamala Harris look alike to campaign in Florida????
Is this Kamala or a body double???
Is this Kamala or a body double???
Trump will win more electoral points than he did in 2016. He might even win the popular vote.
The msm polls are such crap when you look at the poll internals. They consistently over poll dems by 10% and conservatives, like myself take great pleasure in screwing around with them.
The Trump rallies are incredible, but the real story of the Trump rallies are the information gleaned by their technology. They utilize a software that captures cell phones. They know that attendees are 26-36% dems, and that 40% of attendees did not vote in the last election.
The only prayer that Kamala has of winning Penn. is the fraud they have legitimized this election cycle with the mail-ins. That's right, I said Kamala. Nobody in their right mind believes that it was ever the plan that Joe would, or could be President. The only reason he's not in a convalescent home, is the msm is propping him up.
I am looking forward to seeing how many of you that are still being controlled by the deep state propaganda machine will finally wake up after the election.
The msm polls are such crap when you look at the poll internals. They consistently over poll dems by 10% and conservatives, like myself take great pleasure in screwing around with them.
The Trump rallies are incredible, but the real story of the Trump rallies are the information gleaned by their technology. They utilize a software that captures cell phones. They know that attendees are 26-36% dems, and that 40% of attendees did not vote in the last election.
The only prayer that Kamala has of winning Penn. is the fraud they have legitimized this election cycle with the mail-ins. That's right, I said Kamala. Nobody in their right mind believes that it was ever the plan that Joe would, or could be President. The only reason he's not in a convalescent home, is the msm is propping him up.
I am looking forward to seeing how many of you that are still being controlled by the deep state propaganda machine will finally wake up after the election.
There's a real lack of understanding of statistics in this thread and some outright conspiracies (surprise surprise). I think the sentiment "if Trump wins this election then the polls are meaningless" is roughly true.
I strongly expect Biden will win because the polls suggest that he will and we don't have any real reason to doubt them (2016 has been beaten to death - the polls were pretty good). If he loses this election fairly with such a large polling lead I'll start to buy the "polls are meaningless" narrative. Right now it's just a bunch of people going all "my feelings don't care about the facts" and ginning up ways that things are actually looking really good for Trump.
If I had to guess, I'd think the polls are more likely to show too favorably to Trump as an overcorrection on 2016. But we'll see.
I strongly expect Biden will win because the polls suggest that he will and we don't have any real reason to doubt them (2016 has been beaten to death - the polls were pretty good). If he loses this election fairly with such a large polling lead I'll start to buy the "polls are meaningless" narrative. Right now it's just a bunch of people going all "my feelings don't care about the facts" and ginning up ways that things are actually looking really good for Trump.
If I had to guess, I'd think the polls are more likely to show too favorably to Trump as an overcorrection on 2016. But we'll see.
dont forget 2018
they were wrong then too
used to be able to use landlines to control your output.
with cells and mobility the democratic pollsters had to come up with even better tricks to get the outcome they want.
all polls are predetermined by the author before its conducted
Nice! where have you been man? Hopefully you are as right about the election as you were about all of the dems doing the perp walk.
Ironically the election is going to pan out just like our football game yesterday
The democrats wanted all their guys to get their votes in early to get up like 49-10 kinda score at half
Then hold on for election day, as the second half of the game.
Problem for them is that they only scored 28.
We had DJU, the American people have DJT
Same result.
MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT TRUMP will not be up enough to stop the Democrats from complaining.
There objective was to be so far ahead in
CA
NY
ILL
that the rest of the country would follow those 3 states
didnt work
The democrats wanted all their guys to get their votes in early to get up like 49-10 kinda score at half
Then hold on for election day, as the second half of the game.
Problem for them is that they only scored 28.
We had DJU, the American people have DJT
Same result.
MY ONLY CONCERN IS THAT TRUMP will not be up enough to stop the Democrats from complaining.
There objective was to be so far ahead in
CA
NY
ILL
that the rest of the country would follow those 3 states
didnt work
The polling lead isn't that significant on a state basis. Below are the toss-up states and the RCP average.
If you give Trump the ones where it's effectively tied or he's up slightly:
GA (-0.4)
TX (+1.2)
NC (+0.6)
FL (-1.0)
IA (+1.4)
OH (+0.2)
He gets within striking distance. He really needs strong showings in PA (-4.3) and AZ (-1.0).
So in theory, Trump could win with only a single state (PA) varying more than a single point from its current polling position.
If Trump just wins the "ties" below. He really needs PA.
Whatever happens, I just hope for civility. Regardless of outcome I'm just hoping for the best for my fellow American.
The polling lead isn't that significant on a state basis. Below are the toss-up states and the RCP average.
If you give Trump the ones where it's effectively tied or he's up slightly:
GA (-0.4)
TX (+1.2)
NC (+0.6)
FL (-1.0)
IA (+1.4)
OH (+0.2)
He gets within striking distance. He really needs strong showings in PA (-4.3) and AZ (-1.0).
So in theory, Trump could win with only a single state (PA) varying more than a single point from its current polling position.
If Trump just wins the "ties" below. He really needs PA.
I hear what you're saying. I think that all of your conditions amount to roughly the 10% chance 538 gives him to win. Let's say for a moment that all of those toss-ups are actually toss-ups and he needs to win all of them (we'll exclude PA for a second). That's six states and winning 6 toss-ups is 1.6% likely. PA on its own is like 10% for Trump (Trump is outside the margin of error (80%) so it's 10% likely that the remaining goes Trumps way).
So none of it is impossible, clearly, but it does basically require a systemic bias against Trump in the polls to happen.
Biden has to win significantly fewer tossups than Trump does to win and PA isn't a toss-up. That's why he's the much more likely victor. Again, this ignores the possibility of a very significant and uncommon polling error all in one direction.
EDIT: As a note, I'm not wild about RCP's average treating all polls as equal. 538 has Trump with a 13% chance of winning PA (Biden up 5.1%).
The polling lead isn't that significant on a state basis. Below are the toss-up states and the RCP average.
If you give Trump the ones where it's effectively tied or he's up slightly:
GA (-0.4)
TX (+1.2)
NC (+0.6)
FL (-1.0)
IA (+1.4)
OH (+0.2)
He gets within striking distance. He really needs strong showings in PA (-4.3) and AZ (-1.0).
So in theory, Trump could win with only a single state (PA) varying more than a single point from its current polling position.
If Trump just wins the "ties" below. He really needs PA.
thats like the map right now
pretty dam good scotchy
NV should light red
NM should be light red
TX red
FL red
MI light red (auto plants- unions support trump, shutdowns by governor)
PA light red (fracking- unions support trump, law and order outside of philly)
MN light light blue (law and order/OMAR- all police and firefighter unions endorse trump)
VT light blue (bernie guys pissed that DNC stole his spot twice)
good stuff
did the Democrats, MSM, and Republican military complex behave with civility the last 4 years?
i say trump should treat the outcome just like obama, biden, hilary, comey, and the rest of their little tribe of thieves
out of an hour and half rally yesterday
CNN picked the 2 seconds he said he was going to fire Fauci after the election.
thats like the best thing they got of the whole rally.
they get paid to cover this stuff.
what a waste of money huh
CNN picked the 2 seconds he said he was going to fire Fauci after the election.
thats like the best thing they got of the whole rally.
they get paid to cover this stuff.
what a waste of money huh
Trump will sign an executive order that all elected govt employees that live in washington dc
must do the following-------
1- hair drug test
2- lie detector
3- list of all family members and friends who work for any media outlet or any type foreign entity doing business on American soil.
4-publicly disclose all tax records of any family member receiving any type of benefit from a foreign entity.
NOTE- This includes Paul Pelosi
We need to know what that kids been up to
must do the following-------
1- hair drug test
2- lie detector
3- list of all family members and friends who work for any media outlet or any type foreign entity doing business on American soil.
4-publicly disclose all tax records of any family member receiving any type of benefit from a foreign entity.
NOTE- This includes Paul Pelosi
We need to know what that kids been up to
Not putting a lot of stock in Nate Silver. In the 10% model you are referencing, it's 10 scenarios out of 100 produced by his model. 6 of those scenarios have Biden carrying South Carolina. A couple even have him winning MS, LA, AL, etc. By contrast, the most "conservative" view looks much like the actual results in 2016.
All eyes on PA IMO.
hey for all you guys that want to know my "meds"
here it is---
Levothyroxine side effects (oral)
Tell your doctor right away if any of these unlikely but serious effects of high thyroid hormone levels occur:
Data from: First Databank·Consult a medical professional for advice.
outside of the constant diarrhea- it seems to be working
didnt lose any hair
gained hair i think
chest pain sometimes
but thats more of TI thing than a drug issue
here it is---
Levothyroxine side effects (oral)
Tell your doctor right away if any of these unlikely but serious effects of high thyroid hormone levels occur:
- Increased sweating
- Sensitivity to heat
- Mental/mood changes
- Tiredness
- Diarrhea
- Shaking
- Headache
- Shortness of breath
- Bone pain
- Easily broken bones
- Chest pain
- Fast/pounding/irregular heartbeat
- Swelling hands/ankles/feet
- Seizures
- Rash
- Itching/swelling
- Severe dizziness
- Trouble breathing
- Hair loss may occur during the first few months of treatment. This effect is usually temporary as your body adjusts to this medication. If this effect persists or worsens, tell your doctor or pharmacist promptly.
Data from: First Databank·Consult a medical professional for advice.
outside of the constant diarrhea- it seems to be working
didnt lose any hair
gained hair i think
chest pain sometimes
but thats more of TI thing than a drug issue
yep
pennsylvania is the most state ever in the history of presidential elections
trump wins
fracking
and all the unions support trump
he even had like a newspaper on his side
and rally tallies-
biden 75-250 crowds
trump 15,000-76,000 crowds
do crowds count?
do the DNC understand that many who claim to be democrats
are actual moderate american patriots?
many are small business owners up and down the streets of our cities.
democrats abandoned them
they know
they are pissed
are actual moderate american patriots?
many are small business owners up and down the streets of our cities.
democrats abandoned them
they know
they are pissed
I inform my opinion off of the preponderance of data. If you want to believe that Trump will based on his most favorable polls you go right ahead; you may very well be right.
And for the record, Silver isn't a pollster. He just aggregates and models the data.
I continue to be surprised (maybe I shouldn't be) by the number of people who question the ethics of pollsters. Sure, there are some that are bought and paid for by political parties but those are generally recognized by analysts. But what is in it for Morning Consult, Survey Monkey, Monmouth, etc. to have skewed polls? Their reputations are at stake. No pollsters wants to be the firm cited right after Dewey Beats Truman.
I have to figure that pollsters recognized one of their critical errors was not including sufficient number of non-college educated white men in 2016. And I have to believe they have worked doubly hard to correct that. In sum, I suspect the polling is more accurate this year (as it generally is every year).
Also, there are not only fewer undecided voters, there are simply fewer voters who will go to the polls Nov. 3. In Texas over 100% of the 2016 number of voters already voted. Sure, there are some new voters and voters who didn't vote (or maybe didn't live in Texas) in 2016. But if pollsters are talking to people who already voted, those votes aren't going to change between now and Nov. 3. That is, there will be less fluctuation.
Also, historically, undecided voters move toward challengers rather than incumbents at the end. That was certainly the case in 2016 (although Clinton wasn't an incumbent per se, Trump was an outsider). All Biden needs is close to a 50-50 split in many places.
My head says Biden wins and 350 EV is even reasonable. But I say that with a lot of hope, too, rather than cockiness. In the end, of the toss-up states I think Trump wins:
Fla., Ga.
Biden wins:
NC, PA, WI, MI, Ariz
North Carolina will be the state that will break the back of Trump. I don't think there is a legitimate path to victory if he loses the Tar Heel State.
I have to figure that pollsters recognized one of their critical errors was not including sufficient number of non-college educated white men in 2016. And I have to believe they have worked doubly hard to correct that. In sum, I suspect the polling is more accurate this year (as it generally is every year).
Also, there are not only fewer undecided voters, there are simply fewer voters who will go to the polls Nov. 3. In Texas over 100% of the 2016 number of voters already voted. Sure, there are some new voters and voters who didn't vote (or maybe didn't live in Texas) in 2016. But if pollsters are talking to people who already voted, those votes aren't going to change between now and Nov. 3. That is, there will be less fluctuation.
Also, historically, undecided voters move toward challengers rather than incumbents at the end. That was certainly the case in 2016 (although Clinton wasn't an incumbent per se, Trump was an outsider). All Biden needs is close to a 50-50 split in many places.
My head says Biden wins and 350 EV is even reasonable. But I say that with a lot of hope, too, rather than cockiness. In the end, of the toss-up states I think Trump wins:
Fla., Ga.
Biden wins:
NC, PA, WI, MI, Ariz
North Carolina will be the state that will break the back of Trump. I don't think there is a legitimate path to victory if he loses the Tar Heel State.
I agree with all of that. However, this year there is ample evidence that there will be a large scale attempt to have votes thrown out. There is no way to factor that into the polls. Lets say Biden easily wins PA but then they throw out 40k mail in ballots because of a technicality, that could sway the entire election. The ruling on Wisconsin by the SCOTUS is enough for me to think they can and will attempt something like that. Wisconsin voters were instructed on the rules to mail in vote, did so accordingly and now the SCOTUS has ruled those votes coming in tardy, due to the USPS and not the voters, un eligible.
I really really worry about these tactics, as it will sow SERIOUS DISCORD.
Will be interesting if, on Election Night, Biden has a significant lead in some of these states. Will Trump say, "wait until all of the votes are counted?" Or will he congratulate Joe and throw himself at his mercy in hopes a future administration won't attempt to prosecute him?
If DT loses, I've always known he will join OAN and have a nightly show where he rails against Dems. His son or Ivanka will run for office.
Not judging based on most favorable polls. All but PA in the states I listed are effectively tied - most leaning Trump per poll averages.
I do think there will be a shift to the right of the polls - but in the margin of error - on election day. That's enough to get the 258 EVs I posted above. Maybe 247 if he loses AZ.
Trump needs to pull one out beyond those states. I think the "most likely" result is 247/258 EVs for Trump in a close loss. But it's close and momentum/turnout may carry him across the line. I really hope so because I'm not looking forward to a giant tax increase and permanent expansion of the federal government.
I will bet you $1,000 that Biden does not get 350 EVs.
My head says Biden by a state and my heart (also my bank account) says turnout/enthusiasm carry Trump.
Fair enough. I'll just maintain that winning 6/6 toss-ups is extremely unlikely (without the shift that you're alluding to).
I will not take your bet. But I'd say Biden getting 350 electoral votes is slightly more likely than Trump winning.
To be clear, I'm not saying there are only 6 toss-ups and he's winning them all. RCP has 197 EVs and 14 states/districts as toss-ups. I'm saying he's winning 6 of those 14 - FL, GA, NC, TX, OH, IA. My close loss has him losing the other 8. That isn't an "extremely unlikely" scenario. But we will know soon enough.
Trump voters don't engage in any political discourse honestly. God tomorrow night is going to be soooooooo sweet when we kick Trump and his deranged cultists to the curb. WOOOOOOO!!!
Trump-as we all know-says a lot of things that are untrue. He won't run. He will realize just how miserable he has been as president once he is free to live full time at Mar-A-Lago and insult people without aides suggesting it was the wrong thing to say.
I'm simply hoping whoever wins, you find a relaxing solution to your personal problem.
Oh, I see where you're coming from now. I think that RCP has a rather broad definition of "toss-up" but we're on the same page now.
EDIT: More clarification! It's more that I have an issue with how they (don't) weight their polls. Some of those states are brought closer to toss-up status by some junky (IMO) polls. I'll stop prattling, now.
Last edited:
If Trump wins the states he won last time but loses PA, he still has 285 EC votes. He could lose PA and WI or MI and still win at 275. Bottom line, he needs to win WI and MI but can lose PA. Trump wants PA as a firewall.....Biden can't win without PA.
hahaha
270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election
www.270towin.com
congrats on the big win. in the end, being subservient to any party or candidate is the real problem here. if you honestly think Biden or Trump is a fit president i don't know what to tell you.
Interesting that the polls have it closer in MN than WI and MI. And the polls were extremely inaccurate in MN last time with a big ED shift to Trump.
I don’t want to get my hopes up too much, but winning two+ of MN, PA, WI and MI is within reach with a big turnout tomorrow.
No I don't think he will. He's consumed the entire party, but he's also a lazy sycophant and will be ready to pass it on to his kids.
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