Now that he's running, I'm interested to see how his supporters believe he will win the presidency in 2024. It would be complete idiocy to support someone who you don't believe can win, so obviously they believe that it is possible or even likely. Let's take a look at the electoral map, 2020 results and 2022 trend that will illuminate the odds.
@TigerGrowls @TigerRagRob @Tiger Guru and even @Cocks are Number 1 looking at you guys. Let's hear the path.
Let's keep this thread free of emotion and feelings. The focus should be on logic and math.
Let's start with the 2020 results. Trump secured 232 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. Any path to victory must assume that he sweeps the states he won in 2020, though that is far from a certainty. But let's assume that happens because his path to victory is impossible if it does not.
That leaves 38 electoral votes that he needs to flip. Based on margins, the states that would be in contention for a flip would be:
From here, let's evaluate how statewide elections turned out and how Trump-supported candidates faired in the 2022 midterms. This will measure the likelihood of Trump flipping these states.
Let's assume Trump loses the states that went 100% dem in 2022. That leaves GA (16), NV (6) and WI (10). That would bring his electoral vote total to 264, 6 short of the presidency.
So Trump needs to win 100% of the states he won in 2020, 100% of the swing states that demonstrated some ability to elect a R in 2022 and at least 1 more state.
Trump guys, walk me through the map. I know you have a clear idea of the path to victory in your mind, supported by facts and logic, so I'm excited to see it.
@TigerGrowls @TigerRagRob @Tiger Guru and even @Cocks are Number 1 looking at you guys. Let's hear the path.
Let's keep this thread free of emotion and feelings. The focus should be on logic and math.
Let's start with the 2020 results. Trump secured 232 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. Any path to victory must assume that he sweeps the states he won in 2020, though that is far from a certainty. But let's assume that happens because his path to victory is impossible if it does not.
That leaves 38 electoral votes that he needs to flip. Based on margins, the states that would be in contention for a flip would be:
- Georgia (16)
- Arizona (11)
- Nevada (6)
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Wisconsin (10)
- Michigan (16)
From here, let's evaluate how statewide elections turned out and how Trump-supported candidates faired in the 2022 midterms. This will measure the likelihood of Trump flipping these states.
- Georgia - Kemp comfortably won the governor's race, demonstrating enough R support to flip this state. However, the Trump-endorsed senate candidate gathered fewer votes than his democratic challenger, which is revealing. While GA can flip, it is still a purple state, candidate quality matters and Trump's affiliation resulted in Walker lagging Kemp, who distanced himself from Trump.
- Arizona - Mark Kelly (D) just won the senate race by 5 points over a Trump-backed candidate. Katie Hobbs (D) just won the governor's race over Trump-backed Kari Lake, who seemed to have momentum. Another purple state, but more D than GA and Trump-backed candidates went 0-2.
- Nevada - D won the senate race, R won the governor's race. I'm not sure how involved Trump was in those races. But another purple state that Trump lost in 2020 that he would need to flip.
- Pennsylvania - D won the governor's race in a landslide. A terrible D candidate beat Trump-backed Oz by 4 1/2 points. This was a particular indictment of Trump's ability to positively influence a potential swing state.
- Wisconsin - R Ron Johnson won by 1 point, underperforming polls that had him up by 3+ points. He was also an incumbent.
- Michigan - D Whitmer won by 11 points in a blowout, despite her terrible handling of Covid in that state.
Let's assume Trump loses the states that went 100% dem in 2022. That leaves GA (16), NV (6) and WI (10). That would bring his electoral vote total to 264, 6 short of the presidency.
So Trump needs to win 100% of the states he won in 2020, 100% of the swing states that demonstrated some ability to elect a R in 2022 and at least 1 more state.
Trump guys, walk me through the map. I know you have a clear idea of the path to victory in your mind, supported by facts and logic, so I'm excited to see it.